Methodological individualism is antithetical to public health practice. The 'public' is not a mere sum of 'individuals.'
CDC ordered staff this week not to release their experts’ assessment that found the risk of catching measles is high in areas near outbreaks where vaccination rates are lagging.
“The decision to vaccinate is a personal one,” a spokesperson said, echoing a line from a recent editorial RFK Jr. wrote
“The decision to vaccinate is a personal one,” a spokesperson said, echoing a line from a recent editorial RFK Jr. wrote
SCOOP: The CDC Buried a Measles Forecast That Stressed the Need for Vaccinations @sheinvestigates.bsky.social
March 29, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Methodological individualism is antithetical to public health practice. The 'public' is not a mere sum of 'individuals.'
I’m sorry they just blasted Idaho all the way from safe to LEAN?
I have questions. I mean gimme all the hopium but i have methodological questions.
I have questions. I mean gimme all the hopium but i have methodological questions.
Polling USA Senate Ratings Changes:
🔴Mississippi: Likely GOP -> Lean GOP
🔴Kansas: Likely GOP -> Lean GOP
🔴Idaho: Safe GOP -> Lean GOP
🔴Montana: Safe GOP -> Likely GOP
🔴Kentucky: Safe GOP -> Likely GOP
🔵New Hampshire: Likely DEM -> Safe DEM
usapolling.substack.com/p/the-democr...
🔴Mississippi: Likely GOP -> Lean GOP
🔴Kansas: Likely GOP -> Lean GOP
🔴Idaho: Safe GOP -> Lean GOP
🔴Montana: Safe GOP -> Likely GOP
🔴Kentucky: Safe GOP -> Likely GOP
🔵New Hampshire: Likely DEM -> Safe DEM
usapolling.substack.com/p/the-democr...
The Democratic Wave Is Growing
Post-Labor Day polling continues to point toward a difficult midterm environment for Republicans
usapolling.substack.com
September 20, 2026 at 6:59 PM
I’m sorry they just blasted Idaho all the way from safe to LEAN?
I have questions. I mean gimme all the hopium but i have methodological questions.
I have questions. I mean gimme all the hopium but i have methodological questions.
This mostly just illustrates the weakness of Bayesianism as a methodological approach rather than saying anything.
Bayesian methods with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data indicate odds of 15,000:1 that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak rather than a wildlife mammal, from Andrew T. Levin https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428
February 8, 2025 at 2:02 PM
This mostly just illustrates the weakness of Bayesianism as a methodological approach rather than saying anything.
Nate Silver, 2007: Ignore punditry, here is an aggregate of all polls weighted according to their methodological rigor.
Nate Silver, 2024: Three gaffes and you're out.
Nate Silver, 2024: Three gaffes and you're out.
February 20, 2024 at 2:09 PM
Nate Silver, 2007: Ignore punditry, here is an aggregate of all polls weighted according to their methodological rigor.
Nate Silver, 2024: Three gaffes and you're out.
Nate Silver, 2024: Three gaffes and you're out.
These "women" are transmasculine I have prepared a thesis with immense methodological rigor
July 7, 2026 at 8:34 PM
These "women" are transmasculine I have prepared a thesis with immense methodological rigor
Gosh, little did I realize that there was a secret methodological hint in "do a breakthrough", did anyone else realize this?
September 22, 2026 at 2:18 AM
Gosh, little did I realize that there was a secret methodological hint in "do a breakthrough", did anyone else realize this?
"An obscure methodological change lowered a key measure of inflation in January, prompting questions about how government statistical agencies produce and report economic data...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
Change in Data Sources Led to Lower Inflation Reading
www.nytimes.com
March 15, 2026 at 3:16 PM
"An obscure methodological change lowered a key measure of inflation in January, prompting questions about how government statistical agencies produce and report economic data...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
that's not how this works but it does suggest some real uh, methodological concerns
September 22, 2026 at 3:27 AM
that's not how this works but it does suggest some real uh, methodological concerns
This inflation data is a big mess with clear downward bias from methodological assumptions by BLS (essentially assuming zero inflation in Oct)
December 18, 2025 at 1:59 PM
This inflation data is a big mess with clear downward bias from methodological assumptions by BLS (essentially assuming zero inflation in Oct)
unfortunately, normal methodological disagreement is an important public policy issue, so things which would otherwise be collegial poster session disagreement require more delicacy to avoid exploding
September 25, 2026 at 3:06 PM
unfortunately, normal methodological disagreement is an important public policy issue, so things which would otherwise be collegial poster session disagreement require more delicacy to avoid exploding
🇳🇵⚠️ Nepalese mercenaries in Moscow Region, Odintsovo, Educational and Methodological Center for Military-Patriotic Education "Avangard"
October 16, 2025 at 1:00 PM
🇳🇵⚠️ Nepalese mercenaries in Moscow Region, Odintsovo, Educational and Methodological Center for Military-Patriotic Education "Avangard"
i have a number of methodological questions!!
great detail in the "charlie chaplin" page
June 8, 2026 at 4:27 PM
i have a number of methodological questions!!
the methodological assumptions behind polling people's opinions on a *single post* that was posted *nine hours ago* are insane
Approval For Trump's "A Whole Civilization will Die Tonight" Post
Disapprove: 64%
Approve: 23%
YouGov / April 7, 2026
Disapprove: 64%
Approve: 23%
YouGov / April 7, 2026
April 7, 2026 at 9:21 PM
the methodological assumptions behind polling people's opinions on a *single post* that was posted *nine hours ago* are insane
3. But new medical guidelines from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland tell a different story. These countries have reaffirmed the importance of gender-affirming care for transgender youth and issued sharp critiques of the Cass Review, calling out severe methodological flaws and misrepresentations.
March 9, 2025 at 4:10 PM
3. But new medical guidelines from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland tell a different story. These countries have reaffirmed the importance of gender-affirming care for transgender youth and issued sharp critiques of the Cass Review, calling out severe methodological flaws and misrepresentations.
Funny how study after study finds vanishingly low regret rates and every time, Jesse finds some technical or methodological reason why they don't count.
Meanwhile, he can provide no evidence of rushed procedures or large percentages detransitioning.
Meanwhile, he can provide no evidence of rushed procedures or large percentages detransitioning.
February 7, 2024 at 10:10 PM
Funny how study after study finds vanishingly low regret rates and every time, Jesse finds some technical or methodological reason why they don't count.
Meanwhile, he can provide no evidence of rushed procedures or large percentages detransitioning.
Meanwhile, he can provide no evidence of rushed procedures or large percentages detransitioning.
I have been working on a pretty weighty piece about the methodological and substantive problems with his English history. Probably another two months away from finishing. But it’s damning stuff.
January 18, 2026 at 6:37 PM
I have been working on a pretty weighty piece about the methodological and substantive problems with his English history. Probably another two months away from finishing. But it’s damning stuff.
Methodological error, methodological schmerror.
Earlier this week, we reported on a Princeton student’s decision to retract her own paper from an engineering journal due to “significant methodological errors.” The student, Rishika Porandla, now tells us she never conducted the experiments described in the study.
Princeton student says she did not conduct the experiments described in her now-retracted paper
A figure from the now-retracted paper in Macromolecular Materials and Engineering shows the “hypothesized effects” of the experiments described in the study. Earlier this week, Retracti…
retractionwatch.com
August 14, 2026 at 7:17 PM
Methodological error, methodological schmerror.
I'm not exaggerating, that is the transphobes' *entire argument*: The near-unanimous positive findings on youth transition do not count because we have methodological quibbles with the research.
In any other field you would look at early, promising research and go "yep, keep expanding."
In any other field you would look at early, promising research and go "yep, keep expanding."
June 21, 2025 at 5:39 PM
I'm not exaggerating, that is the transphobes' *entire argument*: The near-unanimous positive findings on youth transition do not count because we have methodological quibbles with the research.
In any other field you would look at early, promising research and go "yep, keep expanding."
In any other field you would look at early, promising research and go "yep, keep expanding."
Woof. I've been critical of this Urban Institute study since it first dropped, but it turns out that the methodological errors were even more serious than I understood. econjwatch.org/file_downloa...
econjwatch.org
May 4, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Woof. I've been critical of this Urban Institute study since it first dropped, but it turns out that the methodological errors were even more serious than I understood. econjwatch.org/file_downloa...
“Anatomy of a Failure: Why This Latest Vaccine-Autism Paper is Dead Wrong”
Brilliant and much-needed takedown of the latest anti-vax misinformation and propaganda from the pseudo-scientists, ahead of the RFK hearings.
Brilliant and much-needed takedown of the latest anti-vax misinformation and propaganda from the pseudo-scientists, ahead of the RFK hearings.
Anatomy of a Failure: Why This Latest Vaccine-Autism Paper is Dead Wrong
A methodological autopsy of flawed research that contradicts decades of rigorous evidence
theunbiasedscipod.substack.com
January 26, 2025 at 1:36 AM
“Anatomy of a Failure: Why This Latest Vaccine-Autism Paper is Dead Wrong”
Brilliant and much-needed takedown of the latest anti-vax misinformation and propaganda from the pseudo-scientists, ahead of the RFK hearings.
Brilliant and much-needed takedown of the latest anti-vax misinformation and propaganda from the pseudo-scientists, ahead of the RFK hearings.
Increasingly of the mind that the polls keep miraculously being 50/50 because, thanks to methodological and demographic factors shifting, most polling firms really have no idea what's going on but they just can't bring themselves to say that so it's an eternal tie.
November 5, 2024 at 3:15 PM
Increasingly of the mind that the polls keep miraculously being 50/50 because, thanks to methodological and demographic factors shifting, most polling firms really have no idea what's going on but they just can't bring themselves to say that so it's an eternal tie.
There are also huge methodological problems with that preprint and ART performance problems that seriously call reproducibility into question.
September 24, 2026 at 3:55 PM
There are also huge methodological problems with that preprint and ART performance problems that seriously call reproducibility into question.
Skepticism about the relationship between data and reality is good, methodological nihilism is bad.
Bsky: “you can’t trust quantitative data, people are more than just a number!
Also Bsky: “you can’t trust interviews, people will lie!”
Also Bsky: “you can’t trust interviews, people will lie!”
February 22, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Skepticism about the relationship between data and reality is good, methodological nihilism is bad.