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Pakistan’s new solar policy replaces free sunlight with expensive fuel imports – furnace oil, RLNG and coal. Just 2 GW of ‘missing’ rooftop solar adds nearly Rs50 billion a...

ISLAMABAD  -  Pakistan is set to cancel the purchase of 45 LNG cargoes over the next two years (2026–2027) due to a decline in RLNG consumption

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**Double the contract price, in the middle of a war: that is what it has cost Pakistan to replace lost Qatari LNG cargoes in the spot market this summer to avoid gas shortages.** This week, two fertiliser plants in Pakistan were shut down as part of a government effort to ration gas supplies acutely tightened by the loss of Qatari LNG. Two weeks earlier, Pakistan’s largest gas utility warned state-owned power stations that regasified LNG (RLNG) supplies could not be assured from 14 July to 3 August. QatarEnergy’s force-majeure notice is biting Pakistan hard. Rationing scarce supply is not enough; Doha’s extension of the FM notice amid resumption of hostilities in the US-Israeli war on Iran removed another tranche of contracted cargoes from the South Asian country’s delivery schedule, forcing Pakistan back to the spot market at war prices. Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) secured a prompt cargo from TotalEnergies on 4 July at $17.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), equivalent to a 24% Brent slope at the June 2026 average of $73 per barrel. By comparison, Pakistan’s 2021 Qatar contract at 10.2% of Brent equated to about $7.44/MMBtu before fixed components, while the older 13.37% contract came to approximately $9.75/MMBtu. The pressure is intensifying. Pakistan’s three most recent spot cargoes were purchased at $18.23, $20.70 and $21.88 per MMBtu, representing a combined foreign-exchange outlay of roughly **$195 million**. For perspective, that was more than five times the **$36 million** received by the government as direct cash proceeds from the December 2025 privatisation of Pakistan International Airlines. ## Sign up for 💥 Energy Flux 💥 Fiercely independent energy market analysis Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ## From feast to famine Barely a year ago, Pakistan’s central LNG problem was surplus rather than shortage. Rapid solar PV deployment, weak industrial demand and declining power-sector offtake left gas utilities struggling to absorb contracted volumes. Pakistan arranged to defer or divert most of its Eni cargoes for 2026 and 2027, together with several Qatari cargoes, to alleviate rising financial and operational pressure on the gas network. **Only months later, Pakistan was replacing part of those volumes in the war-disrupted spot market at more than double the price of its cheaper long-term contracts. Demand had become flexible, but the LNG portfolio had not.** Pakistan is now short of deliverable LNG and structurally long on contracted LNG. The paradox captures a wider risk for emerging markets. A state can sign long-term commodity contracts, build terminals and promise demand for decades. But when geopolitics ruptures the market, cargoes still gravitate towards richer buyers with stronger credit. And when domestic consumers later find a cheaper route around the state system, the demand underpinning those contracts can disappear just as quickly. The rapid transformation of Pakistan’s energy complex raises knotty questions about where LNG demand is heading in a key emerging Asian growth market. * How did Pakistan lurch from dialling down contracted volumes to an acute scarcity crisis in the space of barely a year? * Who wins, who loses and who ends up paying when consumers build a parallel power system beyond the grid? * How many LNG cargoes a year is Pakistan’s DIY solar fleet now displacing, and how does that number alter the country’s procurement strategy? * Which of Pakistan’s two large Qatar LNG contracts is worth keeping, and which is the lever for renegotiation or exit? * How big is the cargo surplus Pakistan is forecast to carry through 2031, even if it walks away from its most expensive contract? * What does the LNG paradox mean for the Iran-Pakistan and TAPI pipeline projects that have loomed over Pakistan’s energy strategy for decades? The answers to these pressing questions stretch back through a decade of twists and turns. The lessons therein are a sober warning to LNG industry demand forecasts predicated on rapid growth in fiscally constrained, price-sensitive emerging Asian economies. 💥 _Article stats: 4,000 words, 15-min read time, 2 charts, 1 table_ Upgrade to __Energy Flux__ Premium to unlock the full Deep Dive — including our full displacement methodology, contract economics and pipeline feasibility scorecard. Unlock the Deep Dive 🔓 Credit card not an option? Need group access, or a corporate account? ****We offer flexible subscription options to suit all needs**** 👉 Get in touch 👈 ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now

The government has apologised to electricity consumers for temporary night-time loadshedding across the country. The Power Division linked the disruption to delays in RLNG supplies. Officials said one RLNG cargo failed to arrive on time. This created a power shortfall of around 3,600 megawatts during peak hours. Consequently, authorities carried out load management for 1.5 […]

The government on Saturday apologised to consumers for electricity loadshedding during the night, attributing it to the unavailability of regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG), and assured them that load management would be reduced “as soon as” the delayed RLNG cargoes arrived. In a statement, the Power Division spokesperson said temporary load management of 1.5 to three hours had been carried out during last night’s peak hours due to a 3,600MW shortfall resulting from the unavailability of RLNG after a cargo failed to arrive on time. The situation was compounded by a 195MW decline in generation from Mangla Dam. Furnace oil-based power plants were also brought into operation during peak hours so that the electricity demand in the country could be met during the night hours, the statement added. “This temporary load management will be reduced as soon as the RLNG cargoes arrive,” it stated. The Power Division stressed that consumers needed to “moderate their electricity usage during peak hours at night so that load management can be kept to a minimum”. “There is no load management during the day. However, in areas where load management is carried out due to losses, electricity is being supplied as per the schedule,” it added. The statement concluded with an apology for the “temporary load management during night hours due to the unavailability of RLNG”. > The government had also apologised to power consumers in April for loadshedding exceeding the promised 2.25 hours, arising out of lower water availability for power generation. The US-Iran war, which began on February 28, has disrupted the supply of RLNG cargoes from Qatar via the Strait of Hormuz. This resulted in the government purchasing five expensive cargoes from the spot market in July, with the sale price of RLNG witnessing the biggest-ever increase in the commodity’s decade-long history. Consequently, the cost of RLNG-based power generation surged by a record 242 per cent to Rs47.4 per unit in July, from less than Rs14 in April. Chiefly because of the LNG factor, the power companies have sought a Rs2.52 per unit increase in fuel cost adjustment (FCA) to consumers across the country in September bills despite 73pc generation in July from cheaper domestic, predominantly zero-cost fuel sources. LNG contributed about 11pc of the total grid supply.

• LPG rates for August increased to Rs254.32 per kg • Ogra says five spot cargoes had to be procured after no shipment secured from Qatar • Regulator finally reveals lower prescribed prices for gas utilities, finalised on June 23 • Rs50bn savings from lower gas rates to be used for circular debt adjustment ISLAMABAD: In a major price shock, Ogra on Friday notified a record 32pc increase in regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) prices for August, fixing the rate at $25.83 per mmBtu for Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) and $25.09 per mmBtu for Sui Southern Gas Company Limi­ted (SSGCL), while denying consumers about Rs50bn in savings from lower natural gas rates. This translates into a retail price of around Rs7,204 per mmBtu. The revised price is based on five imported LNG cargoes procured from the spot market, as no shipment could be secured from Qatar due to the US war on Iran. This is the biggest-ever increase in RLNG prices in the commodity’s decade-long history. The latest increase comes on top of around a 15pc rise in RLNG prices last month, when the rate was fixed at $19.52 per mmBtu (Rs5,446 per mmBtu) for SNGPL and $18.63 per mmBtu for SSGCL. Compared with the February price of $10.45 (Rs2,916) per mmBtu, the RLNG rate for August is around 148pc higher. The sharp increase is expected to significantly raise fuel costs for power generation. The impact is already visible, as the fuel cost for RLNG-based power generation rose to Rs31 per unit in May, compared with Rs13.72 per unit in April. Meanwhile, Ogra also notified a 5.4pc (Rs12.89 per kg) increase in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices for August. It fixed the LPG price at Rs254.32 per kg with effect from Aug 1, compared with Rs241.43 per kg in July. In a belated disclosure, Ogra has revealed that it red­uced the prescribed prices for gas utilities by Rs134 per unit (7.4 per cent), resulting in savings of around Rs50 billion that will be used for circular debt adjustments instead of providing relief to consumers through lower gas prices. For the first time, the regulator did not upload its prescribed price determination, finalised on June 23 and shared with the government, on its website. Since its inception two decades ago, Ogra has publicly released its determinations while simultaneously sharing them with the government. In many cases, it also holds press briefings on its prescribed price determinations and the revenue requirements of gas utilities. However, it remained silent on queries for over a month and finally uploaded the determinations on its website this week after some interveners at public hearings raised concerns. The government has also maintained silence on the matter, although it has already informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that consumer-end gas prices would remain unchanged. The savings resulting from lower revenue requirements determined by the regulator for SNGPL and SSGCL would be used to reduce gas sector circular debt, which was last reported at around Rs3.5 trillion, a senior government official confirmed. As a result, Ogra has yet to notify consumer-end gas rates for the current fiscal year, which are required under the law and the IMF programme to take effect from July 1 every year. The fresh determinations would allow annual revenue of around Rs817 billion to the two gas utilities during the current fiscal year, including Rs501 billion for SNGPL and Rs315.8bn for SSGCL. The determinations showed that the prescribed gas price for SNGPL’s revenue requirement was reduced by Rs134 per mmBtu to Rs1,719 for FY2026-27 from Rs1,853 per mmBtu in FY2025-26, resulting in an annual revenue surplus of around Rs46.3bn. “In exercise of its power under section 8(1) of the Ordinance, the Authority, after taking into consideration points raised by interveners, clarifications provided by the petitioner, scrutiny of the petition and available record, provisionally determines the surplus in estimated revenue requirement for the said year at Rs46.279bn,” Ogra stated. It added that the surplus amount would be adjusted against previous years’ shortfall in accordance with the Federal Cabinet’s decision of June 30, 2024, which directed that prior-year shortfalls be adjusted to the extent possible during the current financial year. Accordingly, the regulator determined SNGPL’s estimated revenue requirement, net of revenues, at Rs501.110bn (Rs1,718.96 per mmBtu) for the current fiscal year. Similarly, the prescribed price for SSGCL’s revenue requirement for FY2026-27 was reduced by Rs86 per mmBtu, resulting in savings of Rs2.5bn. Ogra said it had provisionally determined a surplus of Rs1.421bn in estimated revenue requirement for the year. The regulator noted that, based on the currently notified prescribed price, an additional recovery of Rs1.073bn was available, leaving Rs2.494bn for adjustment of previous years’ shortfalls in line with the federal cabinet’s June 30, 2024 decision. Under the decision, the cabinet had directed Ogra to adjust previous years’ shortfalls to the extent of possible surplus during the current financial year. Accordingly, SSGCL’s revenue requirement, net of other revenues, was provisionally determined at Rs315.773bn (Rs1,691.24 per mmBtu) for the current fiscal year, compared with its previous rate of Rs1,777 per unit before June 30, 2026. It may be noted that SSGCL had sought an estimated revenue requirement of Rs1.274 trillion, including Rs545.28bn in unrecovered shortfalls from previous years. Karachi-based SSGCL supplies gas to consumers in Sindh and Balochistan, while Lahore-based SNGPL provides gas to consumers in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. _Published in Dawn, August 1st, 2026_

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ISLAMABAD: Amid hot and humid weather, Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd (SNGPL) has declared force majeure — a legal term that absolves contractual liability — for its inability to supply regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) for three weeks due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. This may significantly hamper the power supply from over 5,000MW of RLNG-based plants in Punjab and curtail the transmission of power from Sindh to upcountry load centres, resulting in higher loadshedding in the days ahead. Informed officials said while rationing from already imported cargoes could help mitigate shortages, the government would have to increase dependence on the expensive spot market. In separate letters to four RLNG-based power plants in Punjab, the Lahore-based SNGPL said it had been updated by Pakistan State Oil (PSO) that ‘the event of force majeure notified due to ongoing war in the Gulf region remains in effect and continues to prevent the performance of its supplier’s obligations under their LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs)’. > SNGPL cites Hormuz tensions, cuts RLNG for three weeks to Aug 3; higher outages or fuel costs loom It said PSO has also conveyed that “the regional military conflict remains unresolved and ensuing threats to security remain elevated”. Progressive resumption of operations is being initiated by the supplier — Qatar Energy — based on its assessment of the regional safety situation, its ability to provide adequate safeguards for its employees, and its capacity to manage operational constraints. While an increase in the number of transits through the Strait of Hormuz has been observed, availability of safe transit remains intermittent and limited. As notified by PSO, Qatar Energy has indicated that it is prevented from performing its obligations in connection with the delivery of cargoes scheduled for the period from July 14 to Aug 3, in addition to the cargoes previously notified to be affected. Moreover, Qatar Energy will also be prevented from fulfilling the current schedule for all subsequent cargoes listed in Annual Development Plan 2026, and it will update PSO to issue a revised ADP for the balance of the current contract year. As a result of circumstances beyond SNGPL’s reasonable control, LNG supply continues to be disrupted. Consequently, SNGPL’s ability to perform its obligations under the GSA signed on Oct 29, 2016, including but not limited to supply of RLNG to power plants and compliance with the gas specifications, remains materially and adversely affected. “Accordingly, the event of force majeure previously notified, continues under Article 13 of the GSA and SNGPL is relieved from its performance obligations to the extent and for the duration that such force majeure Event or its effects continue in accordance with” the GSA. The notice said the SNGPL was monitoring the situation and coordinating with PSO to manage the impact on RLNG supplies and related operational effects. “The situation arising from the Force Majeure event and the surrounding circumstances remain highly uncertain”, it said, adding that any further developments would be updated accordingly, including any changes to affected cargo schedules beyond Aug 3. Officials said this meant supply of LNG cargoes would mostly remain cut off till Aug 3. “Hence, power shortage and loadshedding will be happening in Upper Punjab and Northern Areas,” said an official, adding the Independent System & Market Operators might have to operate power plants on diesel, which will ultimately be too expensive, and consumers would suffer either because of higher power cuts or additional fuel costs in future. _Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2026_