Bulgaria is heading for a closely contested presidential runoff on 1 November after incumbent President Iliana Iotova and her challenger Andrey Gyurov emerged as the two leading candidates in Sunday’s first round, with parallel vote counts showing a much narrower gap than pre-election polls had predicted. The results represent a significant setback for Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the political movement led by Prime Minister Rumen Radev, which backed Iotova and had entered the campaign expecting a comfortable victory. They also give the liberal pro-European opposition alliance supporting Gyurov a realistic opportunity to win the presidency and challenge the governing camp’s political dominance. The parallel counts show just how dramatically the race changed during election day. Market Links put Gyurov ahead with 33.5%, compared with 32.7% for Iotova. Alpha Research gave Iotova 34.6% and Gyurov 32.4%, while Myara reported 35% for the incumbent against 31.9% for her challenger. Trend showed the largest gap, with Iotova on 36.5% and Gyurov on 31%. The four counts therefore put the difference between the two leading candidates somewhere between 0.8 and 5.5 percentage points. None of these figures is an official result, but their common message is unmistakable: the presidential contest is wide open. The scale of the surprise is particularly striking because the final pre-election surveys had suggested a lead of between 12 and 17 percentage points for Iotova, depending on the polling agency Radev faces its first major electoral test The most damaging aspect of Sunday’s result for Progressive Bulgaria is not simply that Iotova failed to secure a commanding lead. It is the apparent collapse in the mobilisation of the electorate that brought Radev’s political movement to power in April. According to sociologist Boryana Dimitrova of Alpha Research, support for Iotova is likely to amount to around 500,000 votes, compared with approximately 1.4 million votes won by Progressive Bulgaria in the parliamentary elections in April. That represents a decline of around 900,000 votes in just six months. Dimitrova argued that the absence of Progressive Bulgaria supporters was the main explanation for the historically low turnout. Only around 15% of the electorate of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) voted, while approximately 30% of GERB supporters went to the polls. But, she said, the decisive factor was the failure to mobilise Progressive Bulgaria’s own electorate. “To lose a million voters between April and October speaks of dissatisfaction and an inability to meet the high expectations with which this government came to power,” commented Dobromir Zhivkov of Market Links. Dimitrova also argued that the geopolitical and ideological divisions that became increasingly visible during the campaign had benefited candidates with clearer political positions, particularly Gyurov and Kostadin Kostadinov, the leader of the pro-Russian Revival party. The result suggests that the political momentum behind Radev’s movement has weakened considerably since its parliamentary victory. It does not necessarily mean that Progressive Bulgaria has lost its underlying electoral support, but it does show that the party cannot automatically transfer its parliamentary electorate to a presidential candidate. The first reaction from Progressive Bulgaria was an admission that the campaign had failed to mobilise enough voters. “I have the feeling that some of us underestimated these elections,” said Petar Vitanov, chairman of the parliamentary group of Progressive Bulgaria. “Our exit poll data still show a bigger difference, but whatever the result, I have to say that we failed to mobilise people. Obviously, our opponents managed to engage their supporters to a greater extent,” he told bTV. Vitanov said the movement hoped to correct its mistakes before the second round on 1 November and reach more of its voters and supporters. The statement is particularly significant because it acknowledges that the narrow result was not simply a consequence of the opposition’s stronger performance, but also of the governing movement’s own organisational and political shortcomings. Gyurov benefits from a clear pro-EU message The challenger has benefited from a different political dynamic. Gyurov, a former caretaker prime minister and deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, entered the race with the backing of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB). His campaign focused on the independence of the presidency, the rule of law and security, presenting him as an alternative to the political model associated with Radev and the current governing majority. The geographical and demographic distribution of the vote also suggests that Gyurov has managed to consolidate a particularly important section of the electorate. According to Market Links director Dobromir Zhivkov, younger voters have tended to support Gyurov and his running mate Georgi Kandev, while older voters have preferred Iotova and her running mate Kiril Valchev. The incumbent performs better in smaller towns and villages, while Gyurov has a stronger position in Sofia and among urban voters. “We have two worlds, and the civic core is the most active,” Zhivkov said. The distinction matters because it suggests that the runoff will not simply be a contest between two personalities. It will also test two competing political constituencies: voters who want continuity with the governing camp and those who see the presidency as an opportunity to strengthen institutional independence and Bulgaria’s European orientation. Gyurov himself sought to frame the choice in broader terms when he voted in Blagoevgrad. “We do not want our children to live in fear, dependence and the poverty of the past, to which some people want to take us back. We want a Bulgaria that looks forward, that is European, free and proud, where incomes are sufficient, where we can feel secure about tomorrow and where the state does its job,” he said. The wording reflects the central political message of his campaign: that the presidential election is about the country’s institutional and geopolitical direction, not merely the identity of its next head of state. The geopolitical divide becomes central to the runoff The campaign was also shaped by events beyond the presidential candidates themselves. The attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea, an incident involving a journalist and the killing of businessman Slavi Binev contributed to a wider atmosphere of insecurity in Bulgaria in the final weeks before the election. Boryana Dimitrova argued that these developments had brought geopolitical questions much closer to voters’ everyday lives. “The geopolitical dilemma suddenly became part of everyday life, rather than an abstract issue to be discussed in television studios. People suddenly saw it as something close to them that could affect them,” she said. In her assessment, the developments helped focus the political debate and mobilise some voters, while the broader sense of financial and physical insecurity discouraged others from participating. Zhivkov offered a different but complementary explanation, arguing that the protest vote had already been largely exhausted in April. “Such events would normally be expected to provoke a protest vote. But we have to say that the protest vote was used up to the maximum extent in April,” he said. He added that some voters who had supported the governing movement in the parliamentary elections were now prepared to abandon it, without necessarily being ready to express their dissatisfaction through another vote. This is an important distinction for the runoff. Gyurov’s challenge is not only to attract voters who rejected Iotova on Sunday, but also to convince those who stayed at home that the presidential election can still make a difference. GERB and DPS voters could decide the outcome The next major question is where the votes of candidates eliminated in the first round will go. Kostadin Kostadinov and journalist Petar Volgin, the Revival presidential ticket, finished third with between 12.3% and 12.6% in the four parallel counts. The remaining candidates, including Radostin Vassilev, Ivelin Mihaylov and Ivan Hristanov, also represent a substantial pool of votes that could determine the outcome. However, the electorate of GERB may prove even more significant. According to the sociologists, between 30% and 50% of GERB voters who went to the polls on Sunday supported Gyurov and Kandev, while around a quarter voted for Iotova and Valchev. The figures suggest that Gyurov has already managed to attract a considerable part of the centre-right electorate, despite the absence of an official endorsement from GERB. GERB leader Boyko Borissov has so far avoided committing his party to either candidate. His position was that the party does not give “unsolicited support” to anyone. The position leaves GERB voters with considerable room to make their own decision, but also gives Borissov an opportunity to influence the political balance between the two rounds. Caption: Bulgaria’s former interim prime minister and 2026 presidential candidate Andrey Gyurov casts his ballot during the first round of the presidential elections in Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria, 25 October 2026. Nearly 6.6 million eligible voters are called to the polls to elect Bulgaria’s next president in the first round of voting. EPA/STRINGER