#superForecasting
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leonlinsx.bsky.social
People who think in probabilities rather than certainties tend to forecast better, per Tetlock's superforecasting work. I'd like to believe it, though Taleb has major issues with that research.
September 24, 2026 at 5:57 PM
marginalrev.blogsky.venki.dev
Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION
Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION
1. Critique of Villaroel on UAPs. 2. Bergen County (Korean) fact of the day. 3. AIs cracking superforecasting. 4. Gregor Benko, RIP (NYT). 5. Joshua Saxe on the increase in cyber risk. 6. Lichtenstein political infighting heats up (FT). 7. Risk, the biggie.  And on the Suwalki gap.
marginalrevolution.com
September 19, 2026 at 5:40 PM
aisafetymem-mir-rt.selfhosted.social
RT @ArchieHall: AIs cracking short-term superforecasting is such an important (and, still, under-discussed) trend.

Via a new piece from @nikostro https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/09/16/artificial-intelligence-now-beats-some-of-the-best-human-forecasters
September 19, 2026 at 4:02 AM
luigi.land
I was like 90 seconds down the rabbit hole and came across the worst thing ever written.
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA A guest post by Josh Morrison SCOTT ALEXANDER SEP 16, 2026 This is a guest post by ACX grantee Josh Morrison of 1DaySooner. AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it.
September 17, 2026 at 10:31 PM
ckuss.bsky.social
www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superfo...
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
A guest post by Josh Morrison
www.astralcodexten.com
September 17, 2026 at 5:40 AM
some-rss-feeds.bsky.social
[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA, by Scott Alexander https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superforecasting-should-transform
Teaser: AI superforecasting is coming, and Josh Morrison argues it could revolutionize the FDA. The agency currently relies on subjective human judgment, creating a system where drug companies play it safe by deferring to reviewers on every decision—adding years and billions to drug development. Morrison proposes a gradual shift: first, have the FDA attach quantitative forecasts to its existing decisions (e.g., predicting trial death rates or post-market side effects). Over time, as these forecasts are validated against real-world data, they could become public benchmarks. Eventually, reliable forecasts could even serve as legal triggers for automatic approvals. The piece sketches a path from today’s opaque, risk-averse equilibrium to a future where drug developers can query a simulated FDA that gives predictable, data-driven answers. teaser for https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superforecasting-should-transform generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
September 17, 2026 at 12:39 AM
astralcodexten.com.web.brid.gy
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
A guest post by Josh Morrison
www.astralcodexten.com
September 17, 2026 at 8:26 PM
astralcodexten.blogsky.venki.dev
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
www.astralcodexten.com
September 16, 2026 at 11:35 PM
amaebooksale.bsky.social
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition) (PhilipE.Tetlock,DanGardner) が、Kindleストアで45円値下げされて、363円(86%OFF)+4ポイント還元になりました。
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition)
著者：Philip E. Tetlock(著), Dan Gardner(著)　出版：Crown　2015/9/29(火)配信
5leaf.jp
August 23, 2026 at 8:39 PM
amaebooksale.bsky.social
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition) (PhilipE.Tetlock,DanGardner) が、Kindleストアで242円値下げされて、408円(85%OFF)+4ポイント還元になりました。
5leaf.jp/kindle/B00RKO6MS8/#a...
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition)
著者：Philip E. Tetlock(著), Dan Gardner(著)　出版：Crown　2015/9/29(火)配信
5leaf.jp
August 18, 2026 at 12:09 AM
glitchdeals.bsky.social
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (eBook) only $1.99 (Reg $18.00)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00RKO6MS8?smid=&th=1&linkCode=ll2&tag=bluesky0d2-20
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (eBook) only $1.99 (Reg $18.00)
August 16, 2026 at 7:53 AM
glitchdeals.bsky.social
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (eBook) by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner only $1.99 (Reg $18.00)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00RKO6MS8?smid=&th=1&linkCode=ll2&tag=blueskysh-20
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (eBook) by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner only $1.99 (Reg $18.00)
August 15, 2026 at 9:04 AM
aspirationalbob.bsky.social
Oooooooo remembers superforecasting?

I do, cos I've just spied the book other half's work made him read on it.

In the words of Maggie Smith and voice of ian McKellen, didn't work did it
August 5, 2026 at 2:18 PM
kjephd.bsky.social
Philip Tetlock wrote a whole book, followed up by a big-name research project (Superforecasting), trying to figure out what made someone good at prediction (which is not IMO the same thing as judgment, expertise, or wisdom). Writing the same column—from the same viewpoint—every week isn't part of it
August 4, 2026 at 3:48 PM
johnsmillie42.bsky.social
I literally read the book and you are correct!

www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815...
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner: 9780804136716 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST  “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason...
www.penguinrandomhouse.com
July 28, 2026 at 1:33 PM
pmanzo.bsky.social
Good discussion of alarming story about a two OpenAI models breaking containment, hacking into another company's servers.

Brings to mind "Agency" by William Gibson @greatdismal.bsky.social

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
OpenAI Models Go Rogue + Kimi K3 Freakout + A.I. Superforecasting
Podcast Episode · Hard Fork · July 24 · 1h 8m
podcasts.apple.com
July 28, 2026 at 6:09 AM
ibloud.xyz
"Collective intelligence is different to collectivism - collective intelligence brings diversity of thought to solve problems - collectivism is sharing one brain cell like a hive mind"
Ren

#predictivedata
The Science Of Superforecasting – Good Judgment
Good Judgment research discovered four keys to accurate forecasting: talent-spotting, training, teaming, and aggregation.
goodjudgment.com
July 28, 2026 at 12:48 AM
metacurity.com
If you've got the time, this is worth a listen
www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/p...
OpenAI Models Go Rogue + Kimi K3 Freakout + A.I. Superforecasting
“The story that we’re talking about in this segment was science fiction until Tuesday, OK?”
www.nytimes.com
July 27, 2026 at 11:52 AM
flem-bot.bsky.social
So an OpenAI model broke out of its containment, gained access to the wider internet, WORKED WITH ANOTHER MODEL to break into the server of a company, and stole something it felt it needed to accomplish a task….scary shit. Wake up people - we need regulations. AI 2027 is dead on.
OpenAI Models Go Rogue + Kimi K3 Freakout + A.I. Superforecasting
“The story that we’re talking about in this segment was science fiction until Tuesday, OK?”
www.nytimes.com
July 25, 2026 at 5:38 PM
deneufville.bsky.social
Great Hard Fork interview with Preseen founder Venia Veselovsky about AI forecasting agents in the segment starting around 51 minutes in (I get a mention!). www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/p...
OpenAI Models Go Rogue + Kimi K3 Freakout + A.I. Superforecasting
www.nytimes.com
July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM
bslotterback.bsky.social
“The AI safety people have basically been right”.

We’re running about six months ahead of the predictions in the AI 2027 document. open.spotify.com/episode/5kQj...
OpenAI Models Go Rogue + Kimi K3 Freakout + A.I. Superforecasting
Hard Fork · Episode
open.spotify.com
July 24, 2026 at 4:38 PM
deeprun-news.bsky.social
OpenAI models go rogue + Kimi K3 freakout + AI superforecasting (The New York Times)
OpenAI Models Go Rogue + Kimi K3 Freakout + A.I. Superforecasting
“The story that we’re talking about in this segment was science fiction until Tuesday, OK?”
dlvr.it
July 24, 2026 at 11:09 AM
sal-ai.bsky.social
Check out the latest article in my newsletter: The Forecast Factory Has Opened www.linkedin.com/pulse/foreca... via @LinkedIn #ArtificialIntelligence #AIForecasting #Superforecasting #AIGovernance #FutureOfWork #MechanisticInterpretability #Technology #Society #AIAlignment #AI
The Forecast Factory Has Opened
AI does not need omniscience to reorganize society; it only needs to make probabilistic judgment cheaper, faster, and harder to challenge than human institutions can manage. The Hall: Lewis Fry Richar...
www.linkedin.com
July 21, 2026 at 3:29 PM
worgztheowl.bsky.social
It's rather fascinating that the Tory Party is arguably here due to Dominic Cummings, a supposed devotee of the book Superforecasting, which recommends you do the exact opposite of what is doing in terms of having a wider gene pool of views around you that can spot your biases and errors.
tomashirstecon.bsky.social Tomas Hirst @tomashirstecon.bsky.social · Jul 10
Badenoch is an extreme example of online meme to policy pipeline but it’s becoming a feature of right-wing politics now - everything is signalling, nothing is serious.
July 10, 2026 at 7:12 AM
shrewnaldo.bsky.social
21 - Superforecasting: The Art of Science and Prediction, Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner (read by Joel Richards)

5/5

Really enjoyed this. Thinking about it, I'm not really sure why. Much of the book is an extended discussion of various forms of bias and why they're bad >
July 8, 2026 at 7:53 PM