A talk from Bill McGuire the volcanologist, climate scientist, activist and writer of popular science and speculative fiction. His latest book 'The Fate of the World: a History and Future of the Clima...

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billmcguire.co.uk - Volcanologist, climate scientist and activist, keynote speaker and writer of popular science and speculative fiction.

In 1991, the French husband-and-wife volcanologist-filmmaker team Maurice and Katia Krafft were killed by the flow of ash from the eruption of Mount Unzen in Nagasaki. Inexplicably, Werner Herzog didn...

A volcanologist digs into some of the biggest misconceptions around volcanoes and volcanic eruptions.

The article discusses the current state and future potential of predicting volcanic eruptions, drawing parallels to weather forecasting. It highlights the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines as a case study where scientists managed to evacuate people just before a catastrophic event, though their forecast was more of an educated guess than a precise prediction. The author, a volcanologist, explores how advancements in instrumentation, machine learning, and understanding of magmatic plumbing have improved volcanic monitoring but notes that precise eruption forecasting remains elusive. Volcanologists face challenges due to the hidden nature of magma chambers kilometers below the surface, the unique architecture of each volcano's plumbing system, and the complex interplay of factors that trigger eruptions. The article emphasizes that while weather forecasting has become highly accurate through mathematical models, volcanic forecasting requires a deeper understanding of subsurface physics. Scientists are working on projects like Ex-X and SZ4D to monitor volcanoes more comprehensively, using seismometers, fiber-optic cables, and machine learning to detect subtle changes that precede eruptions. The goal is to develop a unified theory of volcanism that could allow for eruption forecasts similar to weather forecasts, though this would require decades of consistent monitoring across multiple eruption cycles. The article concludes that while some volcanoes with frequent eruptions (like those in Hawaii and Iceland) may see more accurate forecasts sooner, many volcanoes remain poorly monitored, and significant data gaps exist. However, with continued research and technological advancements, scientists believe it's possible to move toward more reliable volcanic eruption predictions.

In this Ask the Professor piece, volcanologist Philipp Ruprecht outlines how volcanic activity and earthquakes can trigger one another.