Ambarish Karmalkar
@ambarish.bsky.social
Climate Scientist | Studying how global warming affects us locally | Assistant Professor @ University of Rhode Island | https://web.uri.edu/geo/ambarish-karmalkar/
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
NASA GISTEMP/IRI are debuting a new web page for predictions for the annual mean temperature level and what we can expect next year.
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/gmsta/
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/gmsta/
September 14, 2026 at 7:25 PM
NASA GISTEMP/IRI are debuting a new web page for predictions for the annual mean temperature level and what we can expect next year.
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/gmsta/
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/gmsta/
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Paris, France, has now recorded 100 days above 25°C (77°F) in 2026 so far. This has never happened before in a calendar year since records began 154 years ago, in 1872.
September 15, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Paris, France, has now recorded 100 days above 25°C (77°F) in 2026 so far. This has never happened before in a calendar year since records began 154 years ago, in 1872.
How has Nepal's Langtang region, which recently experienced a devastating flood and debris flow event, changed over time? Warming changes things -- scientists and colleagues from Nepal explain. smallearth.org.np/activities/w...
September 13, 2026 at 12:12 PM
How has Nepal's Langtang region, which recently experienced a devastating flood and debris flow event, changed over time? Warming changes things -- scientists and colleagues from Nepal explain. smallearth.org.np/activities/w...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
The Atlantic–European jet stream has strengthened and shifted poleward since the pre-industrial era.
A 1725–2100 reconstruction shows the jet explains ~40% of Western Europe's daily temperature variability and is linked to heatwaves, cold spells, and heavy rain.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A 1725–2100 reconstruction shows the jet explains ~40% of Western Europe's daily temperature variability and is linked to heatwaves, cold spells, and heavy rain.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic–European jet during winter - Nature Geoscience
Since 1725, weather extremes in Western Europe have been closely linked to the Atlantic–European jet stream, which is projected to strengthen by 2100 while becoming less extreme, according to daily se...
www.nature.com
September 11, 2026 at 5:55 PM
The Atlantic–European jet stream has strengthened and shifted poleward since the pre-industrial era.
A 1725–2100 reconstruction shows the jet explains ~40% of Western Europe's daily temperature variability and is linked to heatwaves, cold spells, and heavy rain.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
A 1725–2100 reconstruction shows the jet explains ~40% of Western Europe's daily temperature variability and is linked to heatwaves, cold spells, and heavy rain.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
"Our technology [AI summary answers] is increasingly treating the territory between the query and the answer as dead space to be eliminated, when that territory is where most of the learning actually happens."
www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/o...
www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/o...
Opinion | We Are Losing the Ability to Discover What We Didn’t Know to Ask
www.nytimes.com
September 7, 2026 at 2:35 PM
"Our technology [AI summary answers] is increasingly treating the territory between the query and the answer as dead space to be eliminated, when that territory is where most of the learning actually happens."
www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/o...
www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/o...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
The world had warmed ~1.2C in 2018 (SR15) & we now admit, 8 years later, exceeding 1.5C is unavoidable.
The world is ~1.5C today, & warming ~0.3C/decade. Can we say that <1.8C is possible? I don't think we realise how close we are!
5/
The world is ~1.5C today, & warming ~0.3C/decade. Can we say that <1.8C is possible? I don't think we realise how close we are!
5/
September 2, 2026 at 7:06 AM
The world had warmed ~1.2C in 2018 (SR15) & we now admit, 8 years later, exceeding 1.5C is unavoidable.
The world is ~1.5C today, & warming ~0.3C/decade. Can we say that <1.8C is possible? I don't think we realise how close we are!
5/
The world is ~1.5C today, & warming ~0.3C/decade. Can we say that <1.8C is possible? I don't think we realise how close we are!
5/
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
At least 160 people were killed in Nepal & over 400 were listed as missing on Wednesday. The flash floods were caused by an earthquake that triggered a large landslide. It decimated villages, roads, bridges & power plants in Nepal's northern border areas. www.cbsnews.com/news/nepal-f...
Flash flood tears through Nepal, killing scores and leaving over 400 tourists missing, including 33 Americans
Flash floods tore through a valley in Nepal, sweeping away villages and hundreds of tourists, with Americans among the missing, authorities say.
www.cbsnews.com
August 27, 2026 at 12:40 AM
At least 160 people were killed in Nepal & over 400 were listed as missing on Wednesday. The flash floods were caused by an earthquake that triggered a large landslide. It decimated villages, roads, bridges & power plants in Nepal's northern border areas. www.cbsnews.com/news/nepal-f...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
In other words, a *relatively* warm or cool year in the global-mean doesn't give a great deal of information for many regions as to whether that year will be locally relatively warm or cool. Of course an *absolutely* warm year (i.e., with the trends) does – that map is basically red everywhere.
August 25, 2026 at 4:09 PM
In other words, a *relatively* warm or cool year in the global-mean doesn't give a great deal of information for many regions as to whether that year will be locally relatively warm or cool. Of course an *absolutely* warm year (i.e., with the trends) does – that map is basically red everywhere.
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Projection has become reality
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
August 21, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Projection has become reality
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Just wrapped up a 55-hour radar loop of Hurricane #Lala passing by #Hawaii. Its track was parallel and close to the island chain, so it managed to affect every island without ever making landfall.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM
Just wrapped up a 55-hour radar loop of Hurricane #Lala passing by #Hawaii. Its track was parallel and close to the island chain, so it managed to affect every island without ever making landfall.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
New study showing hot days over tropical land are projected to warm faster than the average day (bad news for climate impacts) 🌡️🔥🥵
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Projections of Earth's Hottest Surface Temperatures in CMIP6
CMIP6 captures the broad spatial pattern of p99(Tmax) versus Berkeley Earth, supporting projections of record-like heat Tropical extremes amplify: TDM and TDX warm ∼30%–40% faster than TTL in SSP...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 14, 2026 at 4:23 PM
New study showing hot days over tropical land are projected to warm faster than the average day (bad news for climate impacts) 🌡️🔥🥵
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Exclude high warming models at your own risk agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming
Recent surface warming and top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance point to higher future warming than previously estimated Previous constraints on transient climate response using observed surface te...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 13, 2026 at 1:57 PM
Exclude high warming models at your own risk agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Outright climate denial in the comments aside, it seems there are many people who do not understand how we define winters. Boston’s historic storm totals in Feb 2015 happened during the 14–15 winter, not during the 15–16 strong El Nino winter. www.bostonglobe.com/2026/08/04/m...
A historic Super El Niño is underway. Here’s how this phenomenon could reshape New England’s next winter. - The Boston Globe
This “atmospheric adjustment” changes how the jet stream moves around the globe, influencing where storms develop and track, and whether regions turn hotter or colder.
www.bostonglobe.com
August 11, 2026 at 11:34 AM
Outright climate denial in the comments aside, it seems there are many people who do not understand how we define winters. Boston’s historic storm totals in Feb 2015 happened during the 14–15 winter, not during the 15–16 strong El Nino winter. www.bostonglobe.com/2026/08/04/m...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
European summers aren't what they used to be!
Grey curve is the climate of 1950-90. Every coloured line is a summer since 1991. Every one since 2005 sits beyond the 95th percentile of the curve.
This isn't a shifting #climate. It's already a new one! 🤯🥵
Plot inspired by Barriopedro et al. 2011
Grey curve is the climate of 1950-90. Every coloured line is a summer since 1991. Every one since 2005 sits beyond the 95th percentile of the curve.
This isn't a shifting #climate. It's already a new one! 🤯🥵
Plot inspired by Barriopedro et al. 2011
August 10, 2026 at 7:10 AM
European summers aren't what they used to be!
Grey curve is the climate of 1950-90. Every coloured line is a summer since 1991. Every one since 2005 sits beyond the 95th percentile of the curve.
This isn't a shifting #climate. It's already a new one! 🤯🥵
Plot inspired by Barriopedro et al. 2011
Grey curve is the climate of 1950-90. Every coloured line is a summer since 1991. Every one since 2005 sits beyond the 95th percentile of the curve.
This isn't a shifting #climate. It's already a new one! 🤯🥵
Plot inspired by Barriopedro et al. 2011
El Nino forecast in context dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso
August 10, 2026 at 6:40 PM
El Nino forecast in context dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
With all August model runs now in (except for SINTEX-F), we now expect this year's El Niño event to peak sometime between October and December at a stunning 4C in the Niño3.4 region.
To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
August 10, 2026 at 5:55 PM
With all August model runs now in (except for SINTEX-F), we now expect this year's El Niño event to peak sometime between October and December at a stunning 4C in the Niño3.4 region.
To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
but we can just adapt to +3C /s
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
August 2, 2026 at 9:38 PM
but we can just adapt to +3C /s
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025.
This is deeply shocking.
This is deeply shocking.
July 31, 2026 at 10:44 AM
Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025.
This is deeply shocking.
This is deeply shocking.
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Great article on heat stress physics. Very smart. Hats off. Entrainment‐Based Framework for Understanding Extratropical Moist Heat Extremes - Jha - 2026 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Entrainment‐Based Framework for Understanding Extratropical Moist Heat Extremes
Dry-air entrainment in the lower free troposphere intensifies extratropical moist heat extremes
Entrainment-based framework explains breakdown of moist convective neutrality during extratropical ...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
July 27, 2026 at 4:44 PM
Great article on heat stress physics. Very smart. Hats off. Entrainment‐Based Framework for Understanding Extratropical Moist Heat Extremes - Jha - 2026 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
New preprint on the physics of land humidity using 'water tagging' simulations. Key pt: land specific humidity changes primarily controlled by water advected from ocean regions, but relative humidity changes closely tied to local processes (e.g., soil moisture) essopenarchive.org/doi/abs/10.2...
essopenarchive.org
July 27, 2026 at 5:23 PM
New preprint on the physics of land humidity using 'water tagging' simulations. Key pt: land specific humidity changes primarily controlled by water advected from ocean regions, but relative humidity changes closely tied to local processes (e.g., soil moisture) essopenarchive.org/doi/abs/10.2...
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
🔥🔥🔥Newspaper frontpages🔥🔥🔥
July 27, 2026 at 9:25 AM
🔥🔥🔥Newspaper frontpages🔥🔥🔥
Was new to the country, new to driving. Alone driving in rural New England late one evening, in pouring rain, and could barely see the road. Only reached my destination because I had done my homework. Unlike today, the printed maps era was also the era of kinda knowing your route before you left.
people talk a lot about pre/post-internet microgenerations but let me hear from all the others in my microgeneration, the “printing maps off Mapquest” microgeneration.
Can’t lie, the fact that y’all were driving with PAPER maps is insane. Even worse, you had to ask random strangers for directions??
July 10, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Was new to the country, new to driving. Alone driving in rural New England late one evening, in pouring rain, and could barely see the road. Only reached my destination because I had done my homework. Unlike today, the printed maps era was also the era of kinda knowing your route before you left.
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
NEW – Eight facts about air conditioning amid an overheated global debate | @arunacsekhar.bsky.social @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org @zekehausfather.com
Read here: buff.ly/EynMeIk
Read here: buff.ly/EynMeIk
July 10, 2026 at 2:40 PM
NEW – Eight facts about air conditioning amid an overheated global debate | @arunacsekhar.bsky.social @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org @zekehausfather.com
Read here: buff.ly/EynMeIk
Read here: buff.ly/EynMeIk
Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Finally! An article about the AMOC circulation that isn’t just clickbait / hype, and provides some real physical insights about how the ocean works.
It turns out the ocean may be far more resilient than clikbait stories suggest.
A very worthwhile read!
www.science.org/content/arti...
It turns out the ocean may be far more resilient than clikbait stories suggest.
A very worthwhile read!
www.science.org/content/arti...
The ocean current that warms Europe may be more resilient than feared
Studies of the Atlantic's circulation find signs of both weakening and unexpected stability in the face of global warming
www.science.org
June 12, 2026 at 6:36 PM
Finally! An article about the AMOC circulation that isn’t just clickbait / hype, and provides some real physical insights about how the ocean works.
It turns out the ocean may be far more resilient than clikbait stories suggest.
A very worthwhile read!
www.science.org/content/arti...
It turns out the ocean may be far more resilient than clikbait stories suggest.
A very worthwhile read!
www.science.org/content/arti...
Unfortunately, there seems to be very little pushback from the public or from institutions. mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-t...
‘AI gravity’ is pulling you toward dependency. Here’s how to push back | MIT Sloan
AI systems hold the promise of competitive advantage, but they can usher in cognitive decline among workers, says MIT Sloan School of Management’s Eric So. Learn how to protect cognitive capital.
mitsloan.mit.edu
June 13, 2026 at 12:48 PM
Unfortunately, there seems to be very little pushback from the public or from institutions. mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-t...