Mike Byrne
@drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social
climate scientist | extreme temperatures, atmospheric dynamics, water cycle | Reader @ U. St Andrews, PhD from MIT | he/him | 🇮🇪 in 🏴
https://sites.google.com/view/climate-dynamics-lab
https://sites.google.com/view/climate-dynamics-lab
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Europe didnt just experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2026. It experienced a summer where multiple climate extremes reinforced each other.
First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe
Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...
First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe
Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...
October 2, 2026 at 7:37 AM
Europe didnt just experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2026. It experienced a summer where multiple climate extremes reinforced each other.
First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe
Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...
First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe
Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Another "need to extend the y-axis" moment...
Average temperature in Central England for Jan-Sep for each year since 1772.
It is 0.8°C higher in 2026 than any other previous year.
Average temperature in Central England for Jan-Sep for each year since 1772.
It is 0.8°C higher in 2026 than any other previous year.
October 2, 2026 at 10:11 AM
Another "need to extend the y-axis" moment...
Average temperature in Central England for Jan-Sep for each year since 1772.
It is 0.8°C higher in 2026 than any other previous year.
Average temperature in Central England for Jan-Sep for each year since 1772.
It is 0.8°C higher in 2026 than any other previous year.
Reposted by Mike Byrne
"Pricing El Niño is not the same as preventing its loss of life. Yet, many of those acting on its forecasts are using them to move money, not people, out of harm’s way."
My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...
My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...
Hedging El Niño isn’t the same as adapting to it
Record-setting warm waters slosh eastward across the tropical Pacific, forming El Niño. This recurrent climate pattern reconfigures severe weather worldwide, and with it, the global economy. Scientist...
www.science.org
September 25, 2026 at 10:37 AM
"Pricing El Niño is not the same as preventing its loss of life. Yet, many of those acting on its forecasts are using them to move money, not people, out of harm’s way."
My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...
My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Globally, heatwave onset advanced by 3.29 ± 0.12 days per decade, ending was delayed by 5.41 ± 0.12 days per decade and the heatwave season lengthened by 8.71 ± 0.17 days per decade.
#climate #earth
#climate #earth
Earlier and faster heatwave onset on land under a warming climate - Nature Climate Change
Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense with global warming. Here the authors assess changes in their timing, finding that the heatwave season expands and that many regions see a fa...
www.nature.com
September 24, 2026 at 11:21 AM
Reposted by Mike Byrne
🧵CO₂ removal (CDR) is back in the news, but just because the UNEP report says we need CDR, it doesn't mean we'll have CDR. Many challenges will take decades of research and negotiation to solve. Here are some examples:
Technological: We currently don't have any durable CDR method that scales.
Technological: We currently don't have any durable CDR method that scales.
September 8, 2026 at 12:54 PM
🧵CO₂ removal (CDR) is back in the news, but just because the UNEP report says we need CDR, it doesn't mean we'll have CDR. Many challenges will take decades of research and negotiation to solve. Here are some examples:
Technological: We currently don't have any durable CDR method that scales.
Technological: We currently don't have any durable CDR method that scales.
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Today is #CleanAirDay.
But findings of the 🆕 WMO Air Quality & Climate Bulletin show that an increase in pollution from wildfires and heatwaves could slow efforts to improve air quality and protect human and ecosystem health.
↪️ bit.ly/3UBN1cV
But findings of the 🆕 WMO Air Quality & Climate Bulletin show that an increase in pollution from wildfires and heatwaves could slow efforts to improve air quality and protect human and ecosystem health.
↪️ bit.ly/3UBN1cV
September 7, 2026 at 2:55 PM
Today is #CleanAirDay.
But findings of the 🆕 WMO Air Quality & Climate Bulletin show that an increase in pollution from wildfires and heatwaves could slow efforts to improve air quality and protect human and ecosystem health.
↪️ bit.ly/3UBN1cV
But findings of the 🆕 WMO Air Quality & Climate Bulletin show that an increase in pollution from wildfires and heatwaves could slow efforts to improve air quality and protect human and ecosystem health.
↪️ bit.ly/3UBN1cV
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Happy to have played a small part in helping this piece into print. www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
The world may have less time than it thinks on climate change
If it is affecting circulation patterns that determine how and where anticyclones form, it could accelerate alarmingly, warns Tim Palmer
www.economist.com
August 31, 2026 at 9:45 AM
Happy to have played a small part in helping this piece into print. www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
New study: dry-air entrainment intensifies moist heat extremes in higher latitudes in summer; continental drying could worsen this in future climates through increased lower free tropospheric dryness with @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122678
doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122678
August 29, 2026 at 2:24 PM
New study: dry-air entrainment intensifies moist heat extremes in higher latitudes in summer; continental drying could worsen this in future climates through increased lower free tropospheric dryness with @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122678
doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122678
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Hiatus v2?? Check it out! Our recent work, led by Shang-Ping Xie & Ayumu Miyamoto, suggests that internal variability has strongly influenced satellite-era (~1980-present) tropical Pacific SST trends. www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
August 27, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Hiatus v2?? Check it out! Our recent work, led by Shang-Ping Xie & Ayumu Miyamoto, suggests that internal variability has strongly influenced satellite-era (~1980-present) tropical Pacific SST trends. www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....
Counterintuitively, mixing of dry air into convecting plumes amplifies moist heat extremes. This "entrainment" effect strengthens as climate warms and dries, increasing human heat stress.
Details in our new paper, led by @roshanjha.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Details in our new paper, led by @roshanjha.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
August 27, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Counterintuitively, mixing of dry air into convecting plumes amplifies moist heat extremes. This "entrainment" effect strengthens as climate warms and dries, increasing human heat stress.
Details in our new paper, led by @roshanjha.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Details in our new paper, led by @roshanjha.bsky.social: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Glacial collapse is more likely because of climate change.
Glaciers are particularly vulnerable due to rapid warming in mountainous regions. This "elevation dependent warming" is caused by sfc albedo and Planck feedbacks (info: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/7...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
Glaciers are particularly vulnerable due to rapid warming in mountainous regions. This "elevation dependent warming" is caused by sfc albedo and Planck feedbacks (info: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/7...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
Nepal-Tibet: More than 350 killed in Nepal as rising lake raises fear of new flood - follow live
The US Geological Survey says "glacial collapse" triggered the wall of water and mud that tore through Nepal and Tibet. Hundreds of people are still missing.
www.bbc.co.uk
August 27, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Glacial collapse is more likely because of climate change.
Glaciers are particularly vulnerable due to rapid warming in mountainous regions. This "elevation dependent warming" is caused by sfc albedo and Planck feedbacks (info: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/7...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
Glaciers are particularly vulnerable due to rapid warming in mountainous regions. This "elevation dependent warming" is caused by sfc albedo and Planck feedbacks (info: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/7...)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Is the European 2026 drought unprecedented in the last millennium?
An answer based on the recently published Master thesis work by Patricia Helpap:
geco-group.org/post/pcwd_20...
An answer based on the recently published Master thesis work by Patricia Helpap:
geco-group.org/post/pcwd_20...
Is the European 2026 drought unprecedented in the last millennium? | Geocomputation and Earth Observation
Patricia Helpap recently published her Master thesis work in AGU Advances (Helpap et al., 2026). She contrasted the droughts of the recent past (2000-2024) versus an extended context, covering the pas...
geco-group.org
August 27, 2026 at 8:11 AM
Is the European 2026 drought unprecedented in the last millennium?
An answer based on the recently published Master thesis work by Patricia Helpap:
geco-group.org/post/pcwd_20...
An answer based on the recently published Master thesis work by Patricia Helpap:
geco-group.org/post/pcwd_20...
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Projection has become reality
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
August 21, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Projection has become reality
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
Reposted by Mike Byrne
With the looming El Nino, what does this mean for UK weather? Likely wet?
The major El Nino events of the last 50 years have all been coincident with a wet UK in late autumn into winter. The wetter winter part did not occur during the 1877-78 El Nino, which we think was the largest event on record.
The major El Nino events of the last 50 years have all been coincident with a wet UK in late autumn into winter. The wetter winter part did not occur during the 1877-78 El Nino, which we think was the largest event on record.
August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM
With the looming El Nino, what does this mean for UK weather? Likely wet?
The major El Nino events of the last 50 years have all been coincident with a wet UK in late autumn into winter. The wetter winter part did not occur during the 1877-78 El Nino, which we think was the largest event on record.
The major El Nino events of the last 50 years have all been coincident with a wet UK in late autumn into winter. The wetter winter part did not occur during the 1877-78 El Nino, which we think was the largest event on record.
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Reposted by Mike Byrne
The past month was the joint warmest July on record – tying with July 2024 – according to @NOAA. From record-high temperatures to drought to monsoons and hurricanes, this map illustrates recent weather and climate events around the world.
Read more: https://bit.ly/4xzcZfg
Read more: https://bit.ly/4xzcZfg
August 15, 2026 at 10:21 AM
The past month was the joint warmest July on record – tying with July 2024 – according to @NOAA. From record-high temperatures to drought to monsoons and hurricanes, this map illustrates recent weather and climate events around the world.
Read more: https://bit.ly/4xzcZfg
Read more: https://bit.ly/4xzcZfg
New study showing hot days over tropical land are projected to warm faster than the average day (bad news for climate impacts) 🌡️🔥🥵
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Projections of Earth's Hottest Surface Temperatures in CMIP6
CMIP6 captures the broad spatial pattern of p99(Tmax) versus Berkeley Earth, supporting projections of record-like heat Tropical extremes amplify: TDM and TDX warm ∼30%–40% faster than TTL in SSP...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 14, 2026 at 4:23 PM
New study showing hot days over tropical land are projected to warm faster than the average day (bad news for climate impacts) 🌡️🔥🥵
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Mike Byrne
The UK Hydrological Summary for July looks back at an unprecedented month. It was the driest July in both England and Wales, and third driest of any month for England (in records from 1890).
Low flows in many catchments, reservoir stocks decline, dry soils...
Full summary tinyurl.com/53ejhrpd
Low flows in many catchments, reservoir stocks decline, dry soils...
Full summary tinyurl.com/53ejhrpd
August 14, 2026 at 1:56 PM
The UK Hydrological Summary for July looks back at an unprecedented month. It was the driest July in both England and Wales, and third driest of any month for England (in records from 1890).
Low flows in many catchments, reservoir stocks decline, dry soils...
Full summary tinyurl.com/53ejhrpd
Low flows in many catchments, reservoir stocks decline, dry soils...
Full summary tinyurl.com/53ejhrpd
Reposted by Mike Byrne
With record-breaking heatwaves, France just had both its warmest June and July on record.
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
August 14, 2026 at 10:59 AM
With record-breaking heatwaves, France just had both its warmest June and July on record.
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world.
After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate.
🧪
Warming temperatures + decreasing relative humidity = more water being sucked from soil / reservoirs = DROUGHT. Simple physics.
Europe + UK are on the frontline because they are warming so rapidly – it will get worse until 'net zero' is reached. That's my TED talk 🌍
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw...
Europe + UK are on the frontline because they are warming so rapidly – it will get worse until 'net zero' is reached. That's my TED talk 🌍
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw...
UK weather: More than two-thirds of England now in drought with conditions set to worsen
The National Drought Agency adds the East Midlands, Kent, East Sussex, and other parts of England to the areas officially in drought conditions.
www.bbc.co.uk
August 10, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Warming temperatures + decreasing relative humidity = more water being sucked from soil / reservoirs = DROUGHT. Simple physics.
Europe + UK are on the frontline because they are warming so rapidly – it will get worse until 'net zero' is reached. That's my TED talk 🌍
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw...
Europe + UK are on the frontline because they are warming so rapidly – it will get worse until 'net zero' is reached. That's my TED talk 🌍
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw...
Staggering
Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025.
This is deeply shocking.
This is deeply shocking.
July 31, 2026 at 10:49 AM
Staggering
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Human-induced climate change made the extreme fire weather that fuelled the recent destructive wildfires at least twice as likely in France and at least 20 times more likely in Spain, according to our new study.
July 31, 2026 at 8:48 AM
Human-induced climate change made the extreme fire weather that fuelled the recent destructive wildfires at least twice as likely in France and at least 20 times more likely in Spain, according to our new study.
Reposted by Mike Byrne
Wildfires: why media coverage doesn’t always make the climate connection
A fire is an event. Climate change is the story behind the event. Journalism has to tell both.
theconversation.com/wildfires-wh...
A fire is an event. Climate change is the story behind the event. Journalism has to tell both.
theconversation.com/wildfires-wh...
Wildfires: why media coverage doesn’t always make the climate connection
A wildfire can be explained by today’s barbecue, yesterday’s wind direction, a dry spring, four decades of land use change, or a century of emissions.
theconversation.com
July 29, 2026 at 5:46 AM
Wildfires: why media coverage doesn’t always make the climate connection
A fire is an event. Climate change is the story behind the event. Journalism has to tell both.
theconversation.com/wildfires-wh...
A fire is an event. Climate change is the story behind the event. Journalism has to tell both.
theconversation.com/wildfires-wh...