Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
@bygjacob.bsky.social
ADHD, physics, hurricanes, Saints/Pelicans/Cubs and Tucson native
Proud democrat
One day I’ll be rid of Juan Ciscomanio
Long live the fellas #NAFO
Proud dues paying member of OPEIU
Proud democrat
One day I’ll be rid of Juan Ciscomanio
Long live the fellas #NAFO
Proud dues paying member of OPEIU
Governor is D55-R45
We get a very rare poll of Alaska, from the AARP folks.
May Peltola leads Senator Sullivan 53/47 in the final round of RCV.
See below for the poll + simulation they did: www.aarp.org/content/dam/...
May Peltola leads Senator Sullivan 53/47 in the final round of RCV.
See below for the poll + simulation they did: www.aarp.org/content/dam/...
September 17, 2026 at 4:23 PM
Governor is D55-R45
Welcome back senator Brown
Ohio - Generic Ballot Polling:
🔵DEM: 48% (+5)
🔴GOP: 47% (-10)
YouGov / Sept 10, 2026
(% Change With 2024 House Elections)
🔵DEM: 48% (+5)
🔴GOP: 47% (-10)
YouGov / Sept 10, 2026
(% Change With 2024 House Elections)
September 17, 2026 at 3:23 AM
Welcome back senator Brown
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
No
Minnesota Polling:
Governor:
🔵Klobuchar: 47%
🔴Demuth: 40%
Senate:
🔵Flanagan: 42%
🔴Tafoya: 42%
SurveyUSA / Sept 14, 2026
(Current model result for MN-GOV is DEM 54% - GOP 38%)
(Current model result for MN-SEN is DEM 55% - GOP 38%)
usapolling.substack.com/p/midterms-a...
Governor:
🔵Klobuchar: 47%
🔴Demuth: 40%
Senate:
🔵Flanagan: 42%
🔴Tafoya: 42%
SurveyUSA / Sept 14, 2026
(Current model result for MN-GOV is DEM 54% - GOP 38%)
(Current model result for MN-SEN is DEM 55% - GOP 38%)
usapolling.substack.com/p/midterms-a...
Midterms Are Turning Into a Nightmare for Republicans
Rising gas prices could make an already difficult midterm environment even worse for the GOP
usapolling.substack.com
September 17, 2026 at 12:02 AM
No
Is that bad?
Trump Net-Approval Polling:
🔴Overall: -22%
🟠Immigration: -13%
🔴Foreign Policy: -24%
⚫️Inflation: -50%
Beacon/Shaw / Sept 14, 2026
🔴Overall: -22%
🟠Immigration: -13%
🔴Foreign Policy: -24%
⚫️Inflation: -50%
Beacon/Shaw / Sept 14, 2026
September 16, 2026 at 10:28 PM
Is that bad?
The finger pointing and blame game is starting
“This is fucking war!”
A late-night meeting in House Speaker Mike Johnson’s office went off the rails, with multiple sources describing the session as one of the most contentious this year.
www.washingtonsun.com/congress/hou...
A late-night meeting in House Speaker Mike Johnson’s office went off the rails, with multiple sources describing the session as one of the most contentious this year.
www.washingtonsun.com/congress/hou...
House Republican Meeting Turns Into Shouting Match: ‘This Is Fucking War!’
Speaker Mike Johnson summoned top GOP members to discuss suspending the gas tax, but the session got ugly and personal.
www.washingtonsun.com
September 16, 2026 at 7:53 PM
The finger pointing and blame game is starting
GOP would be fortunate to win a single one of these
Meaningless gut feeling is unless oil/gas prices come down at least somewhat over the next 6 weeks Dems will win at least one of AK/TX/IA/OH.
September 15, 2026 at 4:13 PM
GOP would be fortunate to win a single one of these
@gilmored85.bsky.social @purrtah.bsky.social
@chicyph80.bsky.social
All that screeching over a race Abdul will win by high single digits or double digits
@chicyph80.bsky.social
All that screeching over a race Abdul will win by high single digits or double digits
Michigan Senate Poll (MSU/YouGov)
Registered voters
🔵El-Sayed 48%
🔴Rogers 44%
Likely voters:
🔵El-Sayed 50%
🔴Rogers 45%
8/10-8/20
ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-pol...
Registered voters
🔵El-Sayed 48%
🔴Rogers 44%
Likely voters:
🔵El-Sayed 50%
🔴Rogers 45%
8/10-8/20
ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-pol...
September 1, 2026 at 6:46 PM
@gilmored85.bsky.social @purrtah.bsky.social
@chicyph80.bsky.social
All that screeching over a race Abdul will win by high single digits or double digits
@chicyph80.bsky.social
All that screeching over a race Abdul will win by high single digits or double digits
This does not matter.
August 21, 2026 at 4:04 PM
This does not matter.
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
The best of the West(Noble) finds Katie Hobbs just dominated the Gov race 48-35 D+13
She is winning 15% of Republicans and a margin like that and we’re getting a trifecta
She is winning 15% of Republicans and a margin like that and we’re getting a trifecta
August 20, 2026 at 3:38 PM
The best of the West(Noble) finds Katie Hobbs just dominated the Gov race 48-35 D+13
She is winning 15% of Republicans and a margin like that and we’re getting a trifecta
She is winning 15% of Republicans and a margin like that and we’re getting a trifecta
Send money to Turek
emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-po...
New poll from Emerson this morning has Sand up 5 & Turek down 3. Honestly really strong numbers for a state like Iowa!
- Sand winning Indies by 26% (!), Turek by 11
- Trump’s approval is 8 pts underwater
- Turek’s main issue seems to be name recognition
New poll from Emerson this morning has Sand up 5 & Turek down 3. Honestly really strong numbers for a state like Iowa!
- Sand winning Indies by 26% (!), Turek by 11
- Trump’s approval is 8 pts underwater
- Turek’s main issue seems to be name recognition
Iowa 2026 Poll: Sand Has an Edge in Governor’s Race; Hinson Holds Narrow Senate Advantage - Emerson Polling
Trump, Reynolds approval ratings underwater A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of Iowa voters…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com
August 6, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Send money to Turek
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
Wow Kalshi so true!
August 5, 2026 at 7:04 AM
Wow Kalshi so true!
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
actually no, I'm now going to argue that the Thanksgiving thing was brilliant. because every conservative is going to sound completely silly talking about it constantly if it's rankling so hard. lol
Tom Tiffany in the GOP can wax poetic about holidays and Francesca Hong will address rising prices!
Tom Tiffany in the GOP can wax poetic about holidays and Francesca Hong will address rising prices!
Yes, my former political party is a full-on authoritarian-embracing cult and a real threat to democracy & the rule of law, but (and there shouldn’t be a “but” here)…the Democratic candidate for Governor of Wisconsin thinks Thanksgiving should be canceled.
We need a new party.
We need a new party.
August 4, 2026 at 7:01 PM
actually no, I'm now going to argue that the Thanksgiving thing was brilliant. because every conservative is going to sound completely silly talking about it constantly if it's rankling so hard. lol
Tom Tiffany in the GOP can wax poetic about holidays and Francesca Hong will address rising prices!
Tom Tiffany in the GOP can wax poetic about holidays and Francesca Hong will address rising prices!
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
Yea idk how Rogers is going to beat anyone with talking points like this
August 4, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Yea idk how Rogers is going to beat anyone with talking points like this
House: 260 Dem
Senate: 56 Dem
Governor: 31 Dem
Senate: 56 Dem
Governor: 31 Dem
AUGUST 2026 MIDTERM PREDICTIONS
House: 235-200 Dem
Senate: 52-48 Dem
Governor: 26-24 Dem
House: 235-200 Dem
Senate: 52-48 Dem
Governor: 26-24 Dem
August 4, 2026 at 4:11 PM
House: 260 Dem
Senate: 56 Dem
Governor: 31 Dem
Senate: 56 Dem
Governor: 31 Dem
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
god, please grant me the confidence of mediocre republican operatives who can't read
August 3, 2026 at 9:04 PM
god, please grant me the confidence of mediocre republican operatives who can't read
August 3, 2026 at 8:51 PM
Cubs are going all in this year.
August 3, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Cubs are going all in this year.
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
I apologize for complaining about the fundraising emails, Gina
July 30, 2026 at 10:17 PM
I apologize for complaining about the fundraising emails, Gina
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
YOU CANT DO THIS TO ME D+6 TEXAS
Folks... this is a reputable pollster.. And the gov race!?!
With "extremely interested" voters it's 53 Talarico - 47 Paxton.
GOV: Abbott 50 - Hinajosa 49 !!!!
Article claims "extremely motivated" there... 53 Hinajosa - 47 Abbott. Yeah uh what???
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
With "extremely interested" voters it's 53 Talarico - 47 Paxton.
GOV: Abbott 50 - Hinajosa 49 !!!!
Article claims "extremely motivated" there... 53 Hinajosa - 47 Abbott. Yeah uh what???
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
July 30, 2026 at 11:34 PM
YOU CANT DO THIS TO ME D+6 TEXAS
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
“Extremely motivated” is D+20 btw
July 30, 2026 at 5:06 PM
“Extremely motivated” is D+20 btw
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
Meanwhile Senate Leadership Fund(R) just pulled $3m in ad buys from the North Carolina Senate race.
unclear if this is an early triage
unclear if this is an early triage
July 30, 2026 at 4:40 PM
Meanwhile Senate Leadership Fund(R) just pulled $3m in ad buys from the North Carolina Senate race.
unclear if this is an early triage
unclear if this is an early triage
Reposted by Jacob Aden 🇺🇦🥥🌴🇺🇸 Desert Fella
And right in que, Fox News poll of North Carolina Senate shows Cooper comfortably ahead by 9pts, but is demolishing with motivated voters
Trump approval is 40-58
Trump approval is 40-58
July 29, 2026 at 10:05 PM
And right in que, Fox News poll of North Carolina Senate shows Cooper comfortably ahead by 9pts, but is demolishing with motivated voters
Trump approval is 40-58
Trump approval is 40-58