Florian Krampe
@floriankrampe.bsky.social
Director Climate Change & Risk Programme @SIPRI.org | #ClimateSecurity, conflict, peacebuilding, & security | PhD Uppsala Peace | 🇸🇪🇩🇪 | Geriatric Millennial. FlorianKrampe.org
The usual question is what AI does to the planet. The bigger question is what the planet does to AI.
That was my argument at the Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore this week, hosted by @caixinglobal.bsky.social and DLD.
That was my argument at the Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore this week, hosted by @caixinglobal.bsky.social and DLD.
October 1, 2026 at 6:03 AM
The usual question is what AI does to the planet. The bigger question is what the planet does to AI.
That was my argument at the Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore this week, hosted by @caixinglobal.bsky.social and DLD.
That was my argument at the Asia New Vision Forum in Singapore this week, hosted by @caixinglobal.bsky.social and DLD.
Europe will probably not run out of diesel this winter. That is not where the security risk sits.
Syria shows why. Diesel up 40% in mid-September, protests in at least five provinces, a subsidised tier within a week.
Syria shows why. Diesel up 40% in mid-September, protests in at least five provinces, a subsidised tier within a week.
September 26, 2026 at 8:11 PM
Europe will probably not run out of diesel this winter. That is not where the security risk sits.
Syria shows why. Diesel up 40% in mid-September, protests in at least five provinces, a subsidised tier within a week.
Syria shows why. Diesel up 40% in mid-September, protests in at least five provinces, a subsidised tier within a week.
Climate is not chapter six of the risk report. It is the physical ground every other plan stands on. You cannot take Russia, cyber and a physical world that no longer holds still in turn. Put them all in the middle of the table and design from there.
Opening panel, Di Säkerhet & Beredskap.
Opening panel, Di Säkerhet & Beredskap.
September 24, 2026 at 2:50 PM
Climate is not chapter six of the risk report. It is the physical ground every other plan stands on. You cannot take Russia, cyber and a physical world that no longer holds still in turn. Put them all in the middle of the table and design from there.
Opening panel, Di Säkerhet & Beredskap.
Opening panel, Di Säkerhet & Beredskap.
Opinion — A Super El Nino is here and ASEAN is running out of time. The region has the tools to limit the damage, but funding and coordination fall short
By Florian Krampe and Mely Caballero-Anthony
asia.nikkei.com/opinion/a-su...
By Florian Krampe and Mely Caballero-Anthony
asia.nikkei.com/opinion/a-su...
August 29, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Opinion — A Super El Nino is here and ASEAN is running out of time. The region has the tools to limit the damage, but funding and coordination fall short
By Florian Krampe and Mely Caballero-Anthony
asia.nikkei.com/opinion/a-su...
By Florian Krampe and Mely Caballero-Anthony
asia.nikkei.com/opinion/a-su...
Reposted by Florian Krampe
Check it!
Blaming the Weather for the Fire - www.newsecuritybeat.org/2026/07/blam...
@conresglobal.bsky.social @geoffdabelko.bsky.social @lswatuk.bsky.social @eswein.bsky.social @floriankrampe.bsky.social
Blaming the Weather for the Fire - www.newsecuritybeat.org/2026/07/blam...
@conresglobal.bsky.social @geoffdabelko.bsky.social @lswatuk.bsky.social @eswein.bsky.social @floriankrampe.bsky.social
Blaming the Weather for the Fire
This article was originally published by African Arguments and has been lightly edited for style. On March 19th, the president undertook a historic two-day trip to London, the first by a Nigerian [......
www.newsecuritybeat.org
July 24, 2026 at 12:02 AM
Check it!
Blaming the Weather for the Fire - www.newsecuritybeat.org/2026/07/blam...
@conresglobal.bsky.social @geoffdabelko.bsky.social @lswatuk.bsky.social @eswein.bsky.social @floriankrampe.bsky.social
Blaming the Weather for the Fire - www.newsecuritybeat.org/2026/07/blam...
@conresglobal.bsky.social @geoffdabelko.bsky.social @lswatuk.bsky.social @eswein.bsky.social @floriankrampe.bsky.social
Reposted by Florian Krampe
My new piece on Africa Arguments: “Blaming the Weather for the Fire.”
Tinubu blamed climate & the Sahel for Nigeria’s terrorism. He’s not entirely wrong but it’s a deflection.
Climate is the candle. State failure, poverty & neglect light the flame. 🔥
@stacydvandeveer.bsky.social
Tinubu blamed climate & the Sahel for Nigeria’s terrorism. He’s not entirely wrong but it’s a deflection.
Climate is the candle. State failure, poverty & neglect light the flame. 🔥
@stacydvandeveer.bsky.social
Blaming the weather for the fire | African Arguments
Nigeria’s terrorism crisis has deeper roots than Tinubu admitted in London On March 19th, the president undertook a historic two-day trip to London, the first by a Nigerian leader in nearly 40 years. ...
africanarguments.org
June 30, 2026 at 7:24 PM
My new piece on Africa Arguments: “Blaming the Weather for the Fire.”
Tinubu blamed climate & the Sahel for Nigeria’s terrorism. He’s not entirely wrong but it’s a deflection.
Climate is the candle. State failure, poverty & neglect light the flame. 🔥
@stacydvandeveer.bsky.social
Tinubu blamed climate & the Sahel for Nigeria’s terrorism. He’s not entirely wrong but it’s a deflection.
Climate is the candle. State failure, poverty & neglect light the flame. 🔥
@stacydvandeveer.bsky.social
Reposted by Florian Krampe
Climate change is not destined to fuel conflict, it can also become a powerful pathway to peace. This TEDx talk by @floriankrampe.bsky.social challenges conventional narratives & shows how climate action, cooperation & resilience can help build a more peaceful world. www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Tp...
How can climate change help us build a more peaceful world? | Florian Krampe | TEDxMidAtlantic
YouTube video by TEDx Talks
www.youtube.com
May 30, 2026 at 9:20 AM
Climate change is not destined to fuel conflict, it can also become a powerful pathway to peace. This TEDx talk by @floriankrampe.bsky.social challenges conventional narratives & shows how climate action, cooperation & resilience can help build a more peaceful world. www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Tp...
Corporate boards are miscalculating global risk, and it is costing them.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
#afghanistan #climateadaptation #climatesecurity | Florian Krampe
Corporate boards are miscalculating global risk, and it is costing them.
When executives look at a climate-stressed region or a conflict zone, the prevailing wisdom is to label it a "no-go" area and ...
www.linkedin.com
April 9, 2026 at 9:01 AM
Corporate boards are miscalculating global risk, and it is costing them.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech start-ups.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech… | Flori...
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech start-ups.
Looki...
www.linkedin.com
April 8, 2026 at 9:26 AM
I have spent the last 17 years studying environmental and climate security. But the most revealing trend I've seen this month didn't come from a geopolitical summit. It came from tech start-ups.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region.
Steel was king. Today, it remains… ...
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region.
Steel was king. Today, it remains r...
www.linkedin.com
April 6, 2026 at 7:31 AM
I grew up in Duisburg in the 1980s. The skies were often gray. The blast furnaces didn’t just define our economy; they were the geopolitical gravity of the region.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
The current LNG crunch stresses another criticial indirect impact of the Iran war: the war in the Gulf just dismantled years of climate progress in East Asia through the panic-driven return to coal.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
In my recent TRT World interview with Reagan Des Vignes, we discussed how conflict creates a massive "indirect emission surge." I focused mostly on disrupted logistics and longer flight path...
In my recent TRT World interview with Reagan Des Vignes, we discussed how conflict creates a massive "indirect emission surge." I focused mostly on disrupted logistics and longer flight paths.
The cu...
www.linkedin.com
April 4, 2026 at 11:57 AM
The current LNG crunch stresses another criticial indirect impact of the Iran war: the war in the Gulf just dismantled years of climate progress in East Asia through the panic-driven return to coal.
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...
When we report on war, we focus on troop movements and humanitarian corridors.
In my recent interview with TRT World's Reagan des Vignes, we discussed why the environmental footprint of conflict is so difficult to erase.
📺⏩ youtu.be/IDyo1PMGK_4?...
In my recent interview with TRT World's Reagan des Vignes, we discussed why the environmental footprint of conflict is so difficult to erase.
📺⏩ youtu.be/IDyo1PMGK_4?...
March 31, 2026 at 8:34 AM
When we report on war, we focus on troop movements and humanitarian corridors.
In my recent interview with TRT World's Reagan des Vignes, we discussed why the environmental footprint of conflict is so difficult to erase.
📺⏩ youtu.be/IDyo1PMGK_4?...
In my recent interview with TRT World's Reagan des Vignes, we discussed why the environmental footprint of conflict is so difficult to erase.
📺⏩ youtu.be/IDyo1PMGK_4?...
Smart green money must move to conflict zones.
New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas argue Katongo Seyuba and I.
⏩ fdiintelligence.com/content/7a6b... #ClimateSecurity
New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas argue Katongo Seyuba and I.
⏩ fdiintelligence.com/content/7a6b... #ClimateSecurity
Smart green money must move to conflict zones
New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas
fdiintelligence.com
March 30, 2026 at 9:51 AM
Smart green money must move to conflict zones.
New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas argue Katongo Seyuba and I.
⏩ fdiintelligence.com/content/7a6b... #ClimateSecurity
New FDI tactics can lay the groundwork for stability and sustainable growth in today’s no-go areas argue Katongo Seyuba and I.
⏩ fdiintelligence.com/content/7a6b... #ClimateSecurity
The #MSC2026 report "Under Destruction" offers a powerful analysis of our fracturing geopolitical order.
My latest in @financialtimes.com complements this by looking at the physical order: ft.com/content/b44f...
@munsecconf.bsky.social #ClimateSecurity #Arctic @sipri.org
My latest in @financialtimes.com complements this by looking at the physical order: ft.com/content/b44f...
@munsecconf.bsky.social #ClimateSecurity #Arctic @sipri.org
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
ft.com
February 13, 2026 at 12:26 PM
The #MSC2026 report "Under Destruction" offers a powerful analysis of our fracturing geopolitical order.
My latest in @financialtimes.com complements this by looking at the physical order: ft.com/content/b44f...
@munsecconf.bsky.social #ClimateSecurity #Arctic @sipri.org
My latest in @financialtimes.com complements this by looking at the physical order: ft.com/content/b44f...
@munsecconf.bsky.social #ClimateSecurity #Arctic @sipri.org
Reposted by Florian Krampe
SIPRI Director of Studies @floriankrampe.bsky.social discusses the changing physics of the Arctic in this opinion piece for the @financialtimes.com, and explains why environmental realities must be taken into account.
Full article ➡️ bit.ly/4kqOLhM
#Arctic #ClimateSecurity #Geopolitics #SIPRI
Full article ➡️ bit.ly/4kqOLhM
#Arctic #ClimateSecurity #Geopolitics #SIPRI
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
bit.ly
February 11, 2026 at 9:19 AM
SIPRI Director of Studies @floriankrampe.bsky.social discusses the changing physics of the Arctic in this opinion piece for the @financialtimes.com, and explains why environmental realities must be taken into account.
Full article ➡️ bit.ly/4kqOLhM
#Arctic #ClimateSecurity #Geopolitics #SIPRI
Full article ➡️ bit.ly/4kqOLhM
#Arctic #ClimateSecurity #Geopolitics #SIPRI
Reposted by Florian Krampe
The real #Greenland problem?
Leaders ignore “the water rising around their ankles”, SIPRI’s @floriankrampe.bsky.social argues
“Countries are systematically underinvesting in protection against environmental forces that degrade the capabilities of their defence assets…”
www.ft.com/content/b44f...
Leaders ignore “the water rising around their ankles”, SIPRI’s @floriankrampe.bsky.social argues
“Countries are systematically underinvesting in protection against environmental forces that degrade the capabilities of their defence assets…”
www.ft.com/content/b44f...
The changing physics of the Arctic are the real defence threat
Critical operational zones are becoming more unpredictable
www.ft.com
February 10, 2026 at 8:49 AM
The real #Greenland problem?
Leaders ignore “the water rising around their ankles”, SIPRI’s @floriankrampe.bsky.social argues
“Countries are systematically underinvesting in protection against environmental forces that degrade the capabilities of their defence assets…”
www.ft.com/content/b44f...
Leaders ignore “the water rising around their ankles”, SIPRI’s @floriankrampe.bsky.social argues
“Countries are systematically underinvesting in protection against environmental forces that degrade the capabilities of their defence assets…”
www.ft.com/content/b44f...
Reposted by Florian Krampe
How can investing in the green transition build lasting resilience? SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social and Aurore Belfrage break it down in their latest external article for @di.se. Read it now: www.di.se/debatt/inves...
Investeringar i klimat och försvar ger riktig resiliens
DEBATT:
Parallellt med försvarsupprustningen behöver vi accelerera investeringarna i den gröna omställningen för att skapa resiliens, förutsättningar för…
www.di.se
February 9, 2026 at 12:16 PM
How can investing in the green transition build lasting resilience? SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social and Aurore Belfrage break it down in their latest external article for @di.se. Read it now: www.di.se/debatt/inves...
We are treating "Green vs. Military" as a budget war. It should be an innovation race.
🇸🇪 Sweden’s defense budget is up 34%. If we don't invest in dual-use tech, we are funding obsolescence.
The Nordics can own this export market. My op-ed w/ @aurorebelfrage.bsky.social in @di.se.
🇸🇪 Sweden’s defense budget is up 34%. If we don't invest in dual-use tech, we are funding obsolescence.
The Nordics can own this export market. My op-ed w/ @aurorebelfrage.bsky.social in @di.se.
February 9, 2026 at 8:42 AM
We are treating "Green vs. Military" as a budget war. It should be an innovation race.
🇸🇪 Sweden’s defense budget is up 34%. If we don't invest in dual-use tech, we are funding obsolescence.
The Nordics can own this export market. My op-ed w/ @aurorebelfrage.bsky.social in @di.se.
🇸🇪 Sweden’s defense budget is up 34%. If we don't invest in dual-use tech, we are funding obsolescence.
The Nordics can own this export market. My op-ed w/ @aurorebelfrage.bsky.social in @di.se.
Reposted by Florian Krampe
Last week, SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social spoke at a panel hosted by Oesterreichische Nationalbank on sustainable security. 📺 Watch the panel discussion: www.youtube.com/watch?v=91ik...
#Sustainability #SustainableSecurity #ClimateRisks #Resilience
#Sustainability #SustainableSecurity #ClimateRisks #Resilience
Sustainable Security? Balancing Risks and Resources in Europe’s Climate and Defense Transition
YouTube video by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)
www.youtube.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:04 AM
Last week, SIPRI's @floriankrampe.bsky.social spoke at a panel hosted by Oesterreichische Nationalbank on sustainable security. 📺 Watch the panel discussion: www.youtube.com/watch?v=91ik...
#Sustainability #SustainableSecurity #ClimateRisks #Resilience
#Sustainability #SustainableSecurity #ClimateRisks #Resilience
I spent this week in two very different rooms, discussing the same looming failure.
You cannot buy 21st-century security with a 20th-century receipt. If we treat "National Security" and "Ecological Security" as separate line items, we fail at both.
#ClimateSecurity
You cannot buy 21st-century security with a 20th-century receipt. If we treat "National Security" and "Ecological Security" as separate line items, we fail at both.
#ClimateSecurity
January 24, 2026 at 11:52 AM
I spent this week in two very different rooms, discussing the same looming failure.
You cannot buy 21st-century security with a 20th-century receipt. If we treat "National Security" and "Ecological Security" as separate line items, we fail at both.
#ClimateSecurity
You cannot buy 21st-century security with a 20th-century receipt. If we treat "National Security" and "Ecological Security" as separate line items, we fail at both.
#ClimateSecurity
EU defense spending is up 16%.
But a budget ignoring climate resilience is built on quicksand. Deterrence fails when troops are tied up in disaster relief.
Wed at @oenb.at, we debate the operational reality.
It isn't about emissions. It's about survival.
www.linkedin.com/events/balan...
But a budget ignoring climate resilience is built on quicksand. Deterrence fails when troops are tied up in disaster relief.
Wed at @oenb.at, we debate the operational reality.
It isn't about emissions. It's about survival.
www.linkedin.com/events/balan...
January 19, 2026 at 8:45 PM
EU defense spending is up 16%.
But a budget ignoring climate resilience is built on quicksand. Deterrence fails when troops are tied up in disaster relief.
Wed at @oenb.at, we debate the operational reality.
It isn't about emissions. It's about survival.
www.linkedin.com/events/balan...
But a budget ignoring climate resilience is built on quicksand. Deterrence fails when troops are tied up in disaster relief.
Wed at @oenb.at, we debate the operational reality.
It isn't about emissions. It's about survival.
www.linkedin.com/events/balan...
We define projects by the name of the pot where the money comes from, not by the problems they solve.
As I discussed with @danbanik.bsky.social this isn't just an administrative headache. It is a systemic failure.
youtu.be/Hb6voDIkS1c?...
As I discussed with @danbanik.bsky.social this isn't just an administrative headache. It is a systemic failure.
youtu.be/Hb6voDIkS1c?...
Climate, conflict and the development squeeze – Florian Krampe
YouTube video by In Pursuit of Development
youtu.be
December 23, 2025 at 8:58 PM
We define projects by the name of the pot where the money comes from, not by the problems they solve.
As I discussed with @danbanik.bsky.social this isn't just an administrative headache. It is a systemic failure.
youtu.be/Hb6voDIkS1c?...
As I discussed with @danbanik.bsky.social this isn't just an administrative headache. It is a systemic failure.
youtu.be/Hb6voDIkS1c?...
I sat down with @danbanik.bsky.social to discuss why "hard security" is becoming a brittle strategy in the Anthropocene.
Full discussion on In Pursuit of Development: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb6v...
#ClimateSecurity #Defense #Peacebuilding @sipri.org
Full discussion on In Pursuit of Development: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb6v...
#ClimateSecurity #Defense #Peacebuilding @sipri.org
Climate, conflict and the development squeeze – Florian Krampe
YouTube video by In Pursuit of Development
www.youtube.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:36 AM
I sat down with @danbanik.bsky.social to discuss why "hard security" is becoming a brittle strategy in the Anthropocene.
Full discussion on In Pursuit of Development: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb6v...
#ClimateSecurity #Defense #Peacebuilding @sipri.org
Full discussion on In Pursuit of Development: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb6v...
#ClimateSecurity #Defense #Peacebuilding @sipri.org