Marta Miori
@martamiori.bsky.social
UK Politics Impact Research Fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford
Voting, public opinion, longitudinal methods, nice graphs
Voting, public opinion, longitudinal methods, nice graphs
Pinned
Marta Miori
@martamiori.bsky.social
· Feb 27
Very pleased to share that I passed my PhD viva yesterday!
Huge thanks to my lovely examiners @robjohns75.bsky.social and @profsob.bsky.social, and amazing supervisors @rosieshorrocks.bsky.social, @nspmartin.bsky.social and Ed Fieldhouse...
1/3
Huge thanks to my lovely examiners @robjohns75.bsky.social and @profsob.bsky.social, and amazing supervisors @rosieshorrocks.bsky.social, @nspmartin.bsky.social and Ed Fieldhouse...
1/3
So happy about this – this paper has a lot of sentimental value, mainly because I learned so much from working with @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social. Thank you so much to the BJPIR advisory board members for their lovely feedback!
Very surprised and delighted that my lead-authored article with @robfordmancs.bsky.social & @martamiori.bsky.social has won the BJPIR John Peterson Best Article Prize for 2025! If only I could find a uni to employ me I would keep trying to produce research at this level 🤣
We are delighted to announce that the winner of the #BJPIR John Peterson Best Article Prize for 2025 is ‘Inside the ‘secret garden’: Candidate selection at the 2019 UK general election’ by Chris Butler, Marta Miori, and Rob Ford.
🎉 Congratulations to our winners and runners up!
🔗 buff.ly/EwyGhl1
🎉 Congratulations to our winners and runners up!
🔗 buff.ly/EwyGhl1
September 2, 2026 at 10:22 AM
So happy about this – this paper has a lot of sentimental value, mainly because I learned so much from working with @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social. Thank you so much to the BJPIR advisory board members for their lovely feedback!
Reposted by Marta Miori
As YouGov's excellent report on perceptions of public opinion makes no mention of climate change, I wrote up some relevant findings from a survey YouGov ran for me, in which I measured support and perceived support for net zero:
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...
August 27, 2026 at 1:16 PM
As YouGov's excellent report on perceptions of public opinion makes no mention of climate change, I wrote up some relevant findings from a survey YouGov ran for me, in which I measured support and perceived support for net zero:
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...
Reposted by Marta Miori
We argue that Burnham's victory shows what can happen when appeals aren't primarily about ideology, but 'valence'; bridging issues where left and right bloc voters both feel disillusioned (the economy).
Burnham takes this 'valence' into Westminster but he'll have an uphill challenge to maintain it.
Burnham takes this 'valence' into Westminster but he'll have an uphill challenge to maintain it.
New post
"After Makerfield"
A bumper post on what happens next, how bad this is for Reform and other big questions.
And @profjanegreen.bsky.social / @martamiori.bsky.social on whether the result offers a broader electoral strategy for Labour.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/after-make...
"After Makerfield"
A bumper post on what happens next, how bad this is for Reform and other big questions.
And @profjanegreen.bsky.social / @martamiori.bsky.social on whether the result offers a broader electoral strategy for Labour.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/after-make...
After Makerfield
What happens next and is the result replicable?
samf.substack.com
June 19, 2026 at 9:08 AM
We argue that Burnham's victory shows what can happen when appeals aren't primarily about ideology, but 'valence'; bridging issues where left and right bloc voters both feel disillusioned (the economy).
Burnham takes this 'valence' into Westminster but he'll have an uphill challenge to maintain it.
Burnham takes this 'valence' into Westminster but he'll have an uphill challenge to maintain it.
Reposted by Marta Miori
Notable how much this year's local results for Con+Lab were favourably skewed by London's elections falling this year
Proportional seat change
Lab
London: -40%
Unitaries: -69%
Districts: -73%
Counties: -73%
Metros: -75%
Con
London: +1%
Metros: -49%
Districts: -49%
Unitaries: -57%
Counties: -76%
Proportional seat change
Lab
London: -40%
Unitaries: -69%
Districts: -73%
Counties: -73%
Metros: -75%
Con
London: +1%
Metros: -49%
Districts: -49%
Unitaries: -57%
Counties: -76%
🧵/ Let's put Labour's local election results into perspective...
They lost 58% of the seats they were defending, the 10th worst performance for any party in the last sixty years and the 5th worst for a govt.
This compares to the Tories losing 48-53% in the locals prior to their landslide defeats.
They lost 58% of the seats they were defending, the 10th worst performance for any party in the last sixty years and the 5th worst for a govt.
This compares to the Tories losing 48-53% in the locals prior to their landslide defeats.
May 24, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Notable how much this year's local results for Con+Lab were favourably skewed by London's elections falling this year
Proportional seat change
Lab
London: -40%
Unitaries: -69%
Districts: -73%
Counties: -73%
Metros: -75%
Con
London: +1%
Metros: -49%
Districts: -49%
Unitaries: -57%
Counties: -76%
Proportional seat change
Lab
London: -40%
Unitaries: -69%
Districts: -73%
Counties: -73%
Metros: -75%
Con
London: +1%
Metros: -49%
Districts: -49%
Unitaries: -57%
Counties: -76%
Reposted by Marta Miori
We would be better off without the data. Not only are constituency polls deeply unreliable, but if they have any influence on the outcome, that a) is extremely inappropriate and b) will skew our understanding of British politics.
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...
May 18, 2026 at 10:18 AM
We would be better off without the data. Not only are constituency polls deeply unreliable, but if they have any influence on the outcome, that a) is extremely inappropriate and b) will skew our understanding of British politics.
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...
Reposted by Marta Miori
I know the local elections were seven hundred years ago in Labour-time but I thought I'd share a little app I made that lets you look at the English ward results on a map and compared to various Census demographics. Warning the map takes a while to load. 1/n
benwansell.github.io/local-electi...
benwansell.github.io/local-electi...
May 15, 2026 at 12:07 PM
I know the local elections were seven hundred years ago in Labour-time but I thought I'd share a little app I made that lets you look at the English ward results on a map and compared to various Census demographics. Warning the map takes a while to load. 1/n
benwansell.github.io/local-electi...
benwansell.github.io/local-electi...
Reposted by Marta Miori
My post on tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
Tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026 | LSE British Politics
With the UK Party system fragmenting, tactical voting has become harder. There is little evidence of tactical voting in the local and devolved elections of 2026.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
May 12, 2026 at 1:01 PM
My post on tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
Reposted by Marta Miori
I spent way too long this weekend correlating 81 census variables with local election results, so you don't have to.
Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/
Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/
Local elections 2026: aggregate-level correlations | Created with Datawrapper
Pearson correlation coefficients between aggregate-level census data and the 2026 local election vote share and swing for each party, for the electoral ward or County Electoral District.
www.datawrapper.de
May 9, 2026 at 1:25 PM
I spent way too long this weekend correlating 81 census variables with local election results, so you don't have to.
Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/
Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/
Reposted by Marta Miori
The most reasoned and reasonable thing I’ve read so far on the locals. By my Nuffield colleagues @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social
What have we learnt - that’s actually new - from today’s results? Not much! But here’s our summary:
www.itv.com/news/2026-05...
@martamiori.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social
www.itv.com/news/2026-05...
@martamiori.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social
www.itv.com
May 8, 2026 at 9:13 PM
The most reasoned and reasonable thing I’ve read so far on the locals. By my Nuffield colleagues @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social
Reposted by Marta Miori
What have we learnt - that’s actually new - from today’s results? Not much! But here’s our summary:
www.itv.com/news/2026-05...
@martamiori.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social
www.itv.com/news/2026-05...
@martamiori.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social
www.itv.com
May 8, 2026 at 7:38 PM
What have we learnt - that’s actually new - from today’s results? Not much! But here’s our summary:
www.itv.com/news/2026-05...
@martamiori.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social
www.itv.com/news/2026-05...
@martamiori.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social
This crossed my mind a lot when looking at the locals in 2025, where the raw votes in many wards suggested either significant switching from left to right, or Reform gaining non-voters and Labour voters staying home.
The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low...
1/2
The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low...
1/2
Looking at early results in Halton through, left-right bloc lens and you see the right bloc is up significantly (this isn’t just Tory Ref switching). Can’t know how much is differential turnout it and how much is cross bloc switching, but likely some of both.
May 8, 2026 at 8:48 AM
This crossed my mind a lot when looking at the locals in 2025, where the raw votes in many wards suggested either significant switching from left to right, or Reform gaining non-voters and Labour voters staying home.
The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low...
1/2
The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low...
1/2
Reposted by Marta Miori
Using single wards to show patterns of vote flows (between blocs) seems very risky to me. Turnout is incredibly low in local elections. It was between 20 and 30% in many wards in the last election. 1000-1500 votes cast. Few people changing their vote or staying at home will look like huge changes
May 8, 2026 at 7:19 AM
Using single wards to show patterns of vote flows (between blocs) seems very risky to me. Turnout is incredibly low in local elections. It was between 20 and 30% in many wards in the last election. 1000-1500 votes cast. Few people changing their vote or staying at home will look like huge changes
Reposted by Marta Miori
Ahead of the local elections tomorrow, a reminder of my cut-out-and-keep guide to how best to assess the results as they come in.
Of course, from Friday, I'll be sharing updated versions of the charts - and more - to help put the results into perspective.
Of course, from Friday, I'll be sharing updated versions of the charts - and more - to help put the results into perspective.
How to assess the 2026 local elections
A cut-out-and-keep guide of benchmarks for the 2026 council elections
dylandifford.substack.com
May 6, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Ahead of the local elections tomorrow, a reminder of my cut-out-and-keep guide to how best to assess the results as they come in.
Of course, from Friday, I'll be sharing updated versions of the charts - and more - to help put the results into perspective.
Of course, from Friday, I'll be sharing updated versions of the charts - and more - to help put the results into perspective.
Reposted by Marta Miori
Brilliant video here from Jane, covers so much ground with such clarity. Well worth a watch
If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI...
With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social
Please share! Thank you!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI...
With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social
Please share! Thank you!
How the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system forever
YouTube video by ITV News
www.youtube.com
May 6, 2026 at 7:37 PM
Brilliant video here from Jane, covers so much ground with such clarity. Well worth a watch
Reposted by Marta Miori
Are we witnessing the end of two-party politics in Britain?
@profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social explore what this week’s elections could reveal about the future of UK politics using YouGov data for ITV News.
Find out more ⬇️
https://bit.ly/42ioslS
@profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social explore what this week’s elections could reveal about the future of UK politics using YouGov data for ITV News.
Find out more ⬇️
https://bit.ly/42ioslS
May 6, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Are we witnessing the end of two-party politics in Britain?
@profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social explore what this week’s elections could reveal about the future of UK politics using YouGov data for ITV News.
Find out more ⬇️
https://bit.ly/42ioslS
@profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social explore what this week’s elections could reveal about the future of UK politics using YouGov data for ITV News.
Find out more ⬇️
https://bit.ly/42ioslS
Reposted by Marta Miori
Comparing Remain and Leave voters, we find that Britishness has declined more among Remainers in the aftermath (2016-2020) of the 2016 EU Ref.
As British politics is still polarised around Brexit, our paper shows how political events like referendums can also reshape social identities.
As British politics is still polarised around Brexit, our paper shows how political events like referendums can also reshape social identities.
May 5, 2026 at 9:06 AM
Comparing Remain and Leave voters, we find that Britishness has declined more among Remainers in the aftermath (2016-2020) of the 2016 EU Ref.
As British politics is still polarised around Brexit, our paper shows how political events like referendums can also reshape social identities.
As British politics is still polarised around Brexit, our paper shows how political events like referendums can also reshape social identities.
So proud of all our hard work on this!
Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI...
With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social
Please share! Thank you!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI...
With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social
Please share! Thank you!
How the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system forever
YouTube video by ITV News
www.youtube.com
May 2, 2026 at 12:27 PM
So proud of all our hard work on this!
Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
Reposted by Marta Miori
I explain the GB picture; why national level fragmentation overlooks the two-sided nature of choices, in work w/ @martamiori.bsky.social and why that REALLY matters.
John Curtice on Scotland + Wales, @stephenkb.bsky.social sage insights galore, @benlake.bsky.social the view from Plaid Cymru....
John Curtice on Scotland + Wales, @stephenkb.bsky.social sage insights galore, @benlake.bsky.social the view from Plaid Cymru....
Thanks to @profjanegreen.bsky.social, John Curtice, @stephenkb.bsky.social and @benlake.bsky.social for their excellent insights into politics and public opinion before the elections next week.
Recording of an event @trinityoxford.bsky.social on 28 April 2026: youtu.be/fxbPYKJCW8U?...
Recording of an event @trinityoxford.bsky.social on 28 April 2026: youtu.be/fxbPYKJCW8U?...
The state of the union: England, Scotland and Wales go to the polls
YouTube video by Trinity College Oxford
youtu.be
April 30, 2026 at 2:15 PM
I explain the GB picture; why national level fragmentation overlooks the two-sided nature of choices, in work w/ @martamiori.bsky.social and why that REALLY matters.
John Curtice on Scotland + Wales, @stephenkb.bsky.social sage insights galore, @benlake.bsky.social the view from Plaid Cymru....
John Curtice on Scotland + Wales, @stephenkb.bsky.social sage insights galore, @benlake.bsky.social the view from Plaid Cymru....
Reposted by Marta Miori
🏴 New Blog 🏴
The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century!
So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour:
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century!
So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour:
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
April 29, 2026 at 11:23 AM
🏴 New Blog 🏴
The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century!
So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour:
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century!
So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour:
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by Marta Miori
Probably the most talented early-career political scientist out there just became a doctor!
If you have a project, budget, or call for applications that suits her profile, you’d be wise to reach out to her.
Do it and thank me later 😉
If you have a project, budget, or call for applications that suits her profile, you’d be wise to reach out to her.
Do it and thank me later 😉
So pleased to share that I passed my viva yesterday 🎓✨
What a journey these past years have been! I’m happy, proud, and undeniably also quite relieved to have wrapped this up now.
Now on to discovering what new challenges the world of political science has in store! 📚📊
What a journey these past years have been! I’m happy, proud, and undeniably also quite relieved to have wrapped this up now.
Now on to discovering what new challenges the world of political science has in store! 📚📊
March 27, 2026 at 10:35 AM
Probably the most talented early-career political scientist out there just became a doctor!
If you have a project, budget, or call for applications that suits her profile, you’d be wise to reach out to her.
Do it and thank me later 😉
If you have a project, budget, or call for applications that suits her profile, you’d be wise to reach out to her.
Do it and thank me later 😉
Reposted by Marta Miori
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
March 24, 2026 at 7:11 PM
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
Reposted by Marta Miori
Here we argue that predictions of local ‘chaos’ as a result of fragmentation may be misleading - given the current incentives of FPTP under bloc politics … We may instead be in the middle of a restructuring towards national fragmentation, local two-partyism.
Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism, write @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social
Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism
There are certainly reasons to argue for electoral reform. But pointing to the current system as a generator of chaos could be a misinterpretation ...
www.politicshome.com
March 24, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Here we argue that predictions of local ‘chaos’ as a result of fragmentation may be misleading - given the current incentives of FPTP under bloc politics … We may instead be in the middle of a restructuring towards national fragmentation, local two-partyism.
Reposted by Marta Miori
Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism, write @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social
Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism
There are certainly reasons to argue for electoral reform. But pointing to the current system as a generator of chaos could be a misinterpretation ...
www.politicshome.com
March 24, 2026 at 2:19 PM
Multi-party politics isn’t necessarily chaotic – we could be moving towards a new local two-party-ism, write @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social
Reposted by Marta Miori
One of Labour's big problems right there: a whole bunch of MPs who are convinced that the only reason they won in 2024 and might hold on to their seats in 2028/9 is because they persuaded Reform-curious voters to back them. The research doesn't really support their belief. But hey, 'the doorstep'. 🙄
'Load of b******s': Labour Red Wall MPs angered by Rayner's migration attack
Sources close to the former deputy prime minister deny she is making a leadership pitch
inews.co.uk
March 19, 2026 at 7:50 AM
One of Labour's big problems right there: a whole bunch of MPs who are convinced that the only reason they won in 2024 and might hold on to their seats in 2028/9 is because they persuaded Reform-curious voters to back them. The research doesn't really support their belief. But hey, 'the doorstep'. 🙄