Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

16K followers 1.1K following 4.4K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Senior Fellow in Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Jun 16

Tomorrow the European Parliament votes on the final 'return hubs' deal, expected to pass on a centre-right to far-right majority.

In our new @ceps.eu commentary, @sophia-russack.bsky.social and I argue this is no one-off but a symptom: the EU increasingly looks like an EPP-led minority government:

The EU is looking more and more like an EPP-led minority government – CEPS

At a recent trilogue, European Parliament (EP) and Council negotiators agreed on a much harsher migration policy with the creation of ‘ return hubs’ outside the

www.ceps.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 2h

Australia - who also signed a Security and Defence Partnership earlier this year - is watching with great interest:

Australia ‘on the same page’ as Canada on deepening EU ties, says key minister

Australia’s trade minister said his country will “take great interest” in what Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pursues with Brussels.

www.politico.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3h

Colour me still sceptical of the idea of an European Security Council, but the emerging Wider Europe of Security bringing together the EU, Canada, UK, Norway and Ukraine would be an important step forward:

EXCLUSIVE: Von der Leyen calls for ‘European Security Council’ in SOTEU text | Euractiv

The potential rival to NATO will come with a call for an ‘Alliance for the future’ with Canada, according to a draft

www.euractiv.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 5h

General tone in discussions today, if you think the global economy is bad today it will be worse in a few months time. Oil prices meet protectionist panic and bond market turmoil for a real storm.

Reposted by Tim Bale, John Foot, Nicolai von Ondarza

Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 1d

I'd misclassified Rupert Lowe as a Twitter thing. But he's now *really* gaming Facebook's new algorithm with a mixture of 'remigration' and 'who remembers' memes. Crazy levels of engagement and he's all over the feed of every boomer I know regardless of their politics. www.facebook.com/rupertlowemep

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Reading any political news in Germany at the moment has the CDU in full mental breakdown. I would no longer be surprised to see the end of the current government and a full spiral downwards.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

If (still a big IF) the labs really develop Recursive Self Improving AI and we enter the singularity, it could not have happened under a worse President of the US.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Trump: "The only control or 'guardrails' that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!"

The only control or “guardrails” that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades! The Trump Administration has stopped AI “people” from doing bad, or potentially bad, “things,“ like Dario (Anthropic!), who is now pretending to be a “perfect little angel” - and we will continue to do so! We already have tremendous CRIMINAL and REGULATORY power over these companies! There is a SICK conspiracy going on against AI and Data Centers, and the only one that is happy about it is China. WHOEVER WINS AI, WINS! We are leading China, and all others, and will continue to do so. Conspiracy Theorists, Treasonists, Traitors, and Leakers, BEWARE! Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Likely not the biggest move in EU-Canada relations, but still a politically important signal:

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

The European Parliament is to open an office in Canada, Parliament President Roberta Metsola announced today.

EU Parliament to open office in Canada

Parliament will work in Ottawa alongside the existing EU delegation.

www.politico.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

A twist, and a strange look for France and the whole EU.

Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 1d

🚨 Update: France is demanding the removal of Alisher Usmanov from the EU sanctions list in a bid to secure the release of several French nationals detained in Azerbaijan.

A dramatic twist in the saga.

France seeks Usmanov delisting to free French nationals in Azerbaijan

Paris seeks to remove Usmanov from the sanctions list in an apparent quid-pro-quo move to secure the release of detained French nationals. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 1d

France seeks Usmanov delisting to free French nationals in Azerbaijan

Paris seeks to remove Usmanov from the sanctions list in an apparent quid-pro-quo move to secure the release of detained French nationals. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

The European Parliament is to open an office in Canada, Parliament President Roberta Metsola announced today.

EU Parliament to open office in Canada

Parliament will work in Ottawa alongside the existing EU delegation.

www.politico.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

First nation-wide poll (as far as I remember) that puts the AfD at 30 % across Germany. This is well beyond of what used to be seen as their maximum ceiling of voter potential:

Europe Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 1d

Germany, GMS poll:

AfD-ESN: 30% (+2)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 20% (-3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 11%
LINKE-LEFT: 11% (+1)
FDP-RE: 4% (-1)
BSW-NI: 3% (+1)
FW-RE: 1%

+/- vs. 15-20 July 2026

Fieldwork: 09-14 September 2026
Sample size: 1,009

➤ europeelects.eu/germany

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Europe Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 1d

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, David H. Kaye, Eric Goldman , and 4 more Brendan Nyhan, David H. Kaye, Eric Goldman, Kate Starbird, Afl-Cio, Nicolai von Ondarza, Stuart Shapiro

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 1d

Trump: "The only control or 'guardrails' that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!"

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

Going public on dissuasion avancée: 🇫🇮 joins growing circle of European nuclear partners. Note: apaer from Iceland, this now includes all countries of the Nordic bloc

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

Finland is joining France's plans to cooperate more closely with other European countries on nuclear deterrence, the two countries announced today.

Finland joins France’s nuclear deterrence push

“The initiative is first and foremost about strengthening European security,” said Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

www.politico.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Though as far as I know American Presidents always stayed clear of explicitly endorsing Irish unity, including Biden, who was probably the most pro-Irish President.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Meanwhile, from Brexiteers MAGA friends in the US Congress Foreign Affairs Committee, a deliberate provocation about a 'four state solution' for the UK, shortly after Trump spoke out in favour of Irish unity:

X Post from US Congressman Randy Fine, joking he supports a 'four state solution' to break up the UK.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

No, I called the transition 'smooth' - in political terms, there was very little hiccup. There was no real internal leadership contest, the Labour party rallied behind Burnham and the PM was changed. It Germany, with the coalition government, it would be much much more messy.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

I therefore cannot image the (mostly) smooth Starmer to Burnham coronation handover in Germany. If Merz falls, a breakdown of the governing coalition is much more likely that the simple switch to a new CDU Chancellor. Very distabilising.

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

The destablisation around Merz is eerily similar to that of Starmer, with now constant questions whether he can survive politically.

The major difference, though, is that the CDU cannot just change its leader and make him (or her?) Chancellor. It would basically require a new coalition agreement.

Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm.bsky.social · 1d

The German political debate starts to fall into the same trap as the UK one: at every turn the question is asked: does the chancellor have to step down?

The next federal election is in 2029.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm.bsky.social · 1d

The German political debate starts to fall into the same trap as the UK one: at every turn the question is asked: does the chancellor have to step down?

The next federal election is in 2029.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Important report on Europe and AI worth reading in detail:

"The next months and years of AI progress have the potential for both great opportunity and grave danger. Europe, on its current trajectory, is fully exposed to the latter but only to a small share of the former."

Monika Schnitzer @monika-schnitzer.com · 1d

Today, we publish a ‘Transformative AI Strategy for Europe’. I initiated this work together with Daniel Privitera, & I am glad that Philippe Aghion, Margrethe Vestager, Wolfgang Ischinger, Clemens Fuest, Michiel Bakker, Christoph Winter, Yoshua Bengio, Leo Varadkar & many others joined this effort.

Reposted by James Cameron, Nicolai von Ondarza

French Aid to Europe 🇫🇷🇪🇺 @aidefranceukr.bsky.social · 1d

🇫🇷🇫🇮 The defence partnership between Finland and France is deepening.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Monika Schnitzer @monika-schnitzer.com · 1d

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

So Carney will be at von der Leyen's 'State of the Union' speech in Strasbourg on Wednesday morning, head to Burnham in the evening and be back in Strasbourg on Thursday morning to hold a speech on EU-Canada relations. Canada suddenly becoming quite busy in European politics.

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 1d

Seems that Carney and Burnham will be bonding over a match on Wednesday evening, so is this to be the Everton summit?

NB there is a long overdue trade working group report, and talks to upgrade the Free Trade Agreement were suspended in early 2024.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 1d

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Though note that the Ireland has amonst the highest exposion to US trade and thus is particuarly affected by any Trump tariffs - and thus has argued in the past for a compromise position in the fact of Trump threats against the EU.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Another attempt of Trump's 'divide and rule' strategy, this time in reverse - rather than threatening tariffs on only one EU member state (e.g. Spain), now he is offering to lift them on only one EU member state (here Ireland). Also likely to be unsuccessful.

RTÉ News @news.rte.ie · 1d

US President Donald Trump has said yesterday evening's move to lift tariffs on Irish whiskey applies to Ireland only and not the EU

Whiskey tariff removal for 'just Ireland', not EU - Trump

US President Donald Trump has said yesterday evening's move to lift tariffs on Irish whiskey applies to Ireland only and not the EU.

www.rte.ie

Reposted by Steve Peers, Holger Hestermeyer, François Heisbourg

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Brexit supporters not taking the prospect of a closer 'unique' EU-Canada partnership well.

Telegraph article with the header: " Canada and the EU is an alliance of weakness that will cost Carney

‘Comprehensive partnership’ would break many of Ottawa’s ties with the US – a huge mistake'"

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

RTÉ News @news.rte.ie · 1d

US President Donald Trump has said yesterday evening's move to lift tariffs on Irish whiskey applies to Ireland only and not the EU

Whiskey tariff removal for 'just Ireland', not EU - Trump

US President Donald Trump has said yesterday evening's move to lift tariffs on Irish whiskey applies to Ireland only and not the EU.

www.rte.ie

Reposted by Tim Bale, François Heisbourg, Simon Usherwood , and 1 more Tim Bale, François Heisbourg, Simon Usherwood, Nicolai von Ondarza

Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 1d

So who "won" the Swedish election? Narratives after parliamentary elections are hard. The center right gained support but will lose power, and the Social Democrats lost support but will gain power. The radical right Sweden Democrats are the clear loser, losing support and power.

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