Benjamin Smart
@bthsmart.bsky.social
Director of the Centre for Philosophy of Epidemiology, Medicine and Public Health, University of Johannesburg.
Loves being a dad.
Bad golfer.
Not my equations in the profile pic.
Loves being a dad.
Bad golfer.
Not my equations in the profile pic.
At this point, if it turned out that #DonaldTrump arranged 9/11 so he could own the tallest building in New York, I wouldn't be surprised.
September 16, 2026 at 6:12 AM
At this point, if it turned out that #DonaldTrump arranged 9/11 so he could own the tallest building in New York, I wouldn't be surprised.
As #democrats go into the #midterms desperate to stop the carnage of Trump's kakistocracy, they must remember that hyper-progressive social policies are deeply unpopular. Pennsylvania will buy universal healthcare, but not trans girls in pro sports. Maybe deny republicans their fuel for 6 weeks.
September 12, 2026 at 5:35 AM
As #democrats go into the #midterms desperate to stop the carnage of Trump's kakistocracy, they must remember that hyper-progressive social policies are deeply unpopular. Pennsylvania will buy universal healthcare, but not trans girls in pro sports. Maybe deny republicans their fuel for 6 weeks.
What can we expect as a desperate Trump's flails into the midterms? Could a ceasefire in Ukraine/Russia be on the cards? The case for optimism is real.
#predictionmarketprof
#Trump
#Politics
#Ukraine
@polymarket.extwitter.link
@polymarket.com
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/trading-th...
#predictionmarketprof
#Trump
#Politics
#Ukraine
@polymarket.extwitter.link
@polymarket.com
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/trading-th...
Trading the Midterms
Capitalize on the Last Kicks of a Dying Horse
predictionmarketprof.substack.com
September 11, 2026 at 8:09 AM
What can we expect as a desperate Trump's flails into the midterms? Could a ceasefire in Ukraine/Russia be on the cards? The case for optimism is real.
#predictionmarketprof
#Trump
#Politics
#Ukraine
@polymarket.extwitter.link
@polymarket.com
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/trading-th...
#predictionmarketprof
#Trump
#Politics
#Ukraine
@polymarket.extwitter.link
@polymarket.com
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/trading-th...
Coming to the conclusion that the existential threats #AI are meant to pose are likely largely marketing strategies.
If a technology genuinely posed a 10% risk of mass extinction, governments would be completely mad to allow its development.
Or... Maybe the governments completely mad. Oh. That.
If a technology genuinely posed a 10% risk of mass extinction, governments would be completely mad to allow its development.
Or... Maybe the governments completely mad. Oh. That.
September 10, 2026 at 3:38 PM
Coming to the conclusion that the existential threats #AI are meant to pose are likely largely marketing strategies.
If a technology genuinely posed a 10% risk of mass extinction, governments would be completely mad to allow its development.
Or... Maybe the governments completely mad. Oh. That.
If a technology genuinely posed a 10% risk of mass extinction, governments would be completely mad to allow its development.
Or... Maybe the governments completely mad. Oh. That.
My favourite part of the #Trump convention speech was when he tried to bribe hundreds of millions of Americans to vote Republican.
Wouldn't it be nice if the attorney general wasn't Trump's personal lawyer.
There are no lines that won't be crossed. None.
#politics #U.S.politics #GOPconvention
Wouldn't it be nice if the attorney general wasn't Trump's personal lawyer.
There are no lines that won't be crossed. None.
#politics #U.S.politics #GOPconvention
September 10, 2026 at 6:46 AM
My favourite part of the #Trump convention speech was when he tried to bribe hundreds of millions of Americans to vote Republican.
Wouldn't it be nice if the attorney general wasn't Trump's personal lawyer.
There are no lines that won't be crossed. None.
#politics #U.S.politics #GOPconvention
Wouldn't it be nice if the attorney general wasn't Trump's personal lawyer.
There are no lines that won't be crossed. None.
#politics #U.S.politics #GOPconvention
The US fired their most seasoned diplomats and generals.
Elected a malignant narcissist as president and an alcoholic FOX anchor as secretary of defence.
They sent America's most mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace.
Why isn't it working? What more could be done?
#kakistocracy
Elected a malignant narcissist as president and an alcoholic FOX anchor as secretary of defence.
They sent America's most mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace.
Why isn't it working? What more could be done?
#kakistocracy
September 8, 2026 at 8:20 AM
The US fired their most seasoned diplomats and generals.
Elected a malignant narcissist as president and an alcoholic FOX anchor as secretary of defence.
They sent America's most mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace.
Why isn't it working? What more could be done?
#kakistocracy
Elected a malignant narcissist as president and an alcoholic FOX anchor as secretary of defence.
They sent America's most mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace.
Why isn't it working? What more could be done?
#kakistocracy
The latest in my series on prediction market trading. This miniseries on sports might be called: how not to lose TOO much money gambling. But actually, so far these strategies have been very effective for me. Here's strategy 2.
@Polymarket
#Sports
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/profitable...
@Polymarket
#Sports
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/profitable...
Profitable Strategies for Prediction Market Sports Contracts: Episode 2
Trading the Fixture List
predictionmarketprof.substack.com
September 8, 2026 at 7:39 AM
The latest in my series on prediction market trading. This miniseries on sports might be called: how not to lose TOO much money gambling. But actually, so far these strategies have been very effective for me. Here's strategy 2.
@Polymarket
#Sports
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/profitable...
@Polymarket
#Sports
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/profitable...
Last look at the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Reunion Island. A magnificent week tasting the best Creole and French food, building research relationships, marking, and discovering volcanos and coral reefs.
September 4, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Last look at the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Reunion Island. A magnificent week tasting the best Creole and French food, building research relationships, marking, and discovering volcanos and coral reefs.
It seems to me that the current Supreme Court is so Trumpian that if anything is to be achieved post 2028, the democrats MUST load the court. It probably follows that the next Republican government will do the same, and so on.
I wonder how many judges will preside over the supreme court by 2099.
I wonder how many judges will preside over the supreme court by 2099.
September 3, 2026 at 6:20 PM
It seems to me that the current Supreme Court is so Trumpian that if anything is to be achieved post 2028, the democrats MUST load the court. It probably follows that the next Republican government will do the same, and so on.
I wonder how many judges will preside over the supreme court by 2099.
I wonder how many judges will preside over the supreme court by 2099.
Next forecast: Marine LePenn (Trump with a baguette and a few more brain cells) is excellent value at 33c. She's almost certain to make the run-off and reprice to 47%-80% depending on whom she faces.
French fascism is, I fear, deeply underpriced.
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/is-french-...
French fascism is, I fear, deeply underpriced.
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/is-french-...
Is French Fascism Underpriced?
Or - why investing on desired outcomes makes you poor.
predictionmarketprof.substack.com
September 1, 2026 at 8:59 PM
Next forecast: Marine LePenn (Trump with a baguette and a few more brain cells) is excellent value at 33c. She's almost certain to make the run-off and reprice to 47%-80% depending on whom she faces.
French fascism is, I fear, deeply underpriced.
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/is-french-...
French fascism is, I fear, deeply underpriced.
predictionmarketprof.substack.com/p/is-french-...
How to make sports gambling a little less gamblie on prediction markets (albeit, still pretty gamblie).
Not investment advice - entertainment purposes only.
@polymarket.extwitter.link
#predictionmarkets
substack.com/@predictionm...
Not investment advice - entertainment purposes only.
@polymarket.extwitter.link
#predictionmarkets
substack.com/@predictionm...
Prediction Market Prof (@predictionmarketprof)
The first in a short series on sports trading strategy. Tip number 1: If you can, be in and out before kick-off.
If you like this kind of content, please like and subscribe to my newsletter. If you h...
substack.com
August 30, 2026 at 3:27 PM
How to make sports gambling a little less gamblie on prediction markets (albeit, still pretty gamblie).
Not investment advice - entertainment purposes only.
@polymarket.extwitter.link
#predictionmarkets
substack.com/@predictionm...
Not investment advice - entertainment purposes only.
@polymarket.extwitter.link
#predictionmarkets
substack.com/@predictionm...
Reposted by Benjamin Smart
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro says RFK Jr. offered federal help after two unvaccinated people died from measles, the first U.S. deaths this year. Shapiro declined, saying PA could handle it, and confronted Kennedy, telling him: “There’s real life consequences to spreading misinformation.”
August 25, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro says RFK Jr. offered federal help after two unvaccinated people died from measles, the first U.S. deaths this year. Shapiro declined, saying PA could handle it, and confronted Kennedy, telling him: “There’s real life consequences to spreading misinformation.”
I recorded a series of short lectures and stuck them on YouTube: #philosophy of #science through the lens of medicine.
Had a lot of fun designing AI images/slides.
Content draws on Ladyman, Stegenga, Broadbent, Dammann,Holman, Harris, and myself.
Check it out, here:
youtube.com/@profsmartle...
Had a lot of fun designing AI images/slides.
Content draws on Ladyman, Stegenga, Broadbent, Dammann,Holman, Harris, and myself.
Check it out, here:
youtube.com/@profsmartle...
Prof Smart Lectures
@ProfSmartLectures contains academic content, lectures, podcasts, and commentary by Professor Benjamin Smart through ProfSmartMedia. Benjamin Smart is full professor in philosophy of science at the Un...
youtube.com
August 24, 2026 at 6:34 AM
I recorded a series of short lectures and stuck them on YouTube: #philosophy of #science through the lens of medicine.
Had a lot of fun designing AI images/slides.
Content draws on Ladyman, Stegenga, Broadbent, Dammann,Holman, Harris, and myself.
Check it out, here:
youtube.com/@profsmartle...
Had a lot of fun designing AI images/slides.
Content draws on Ladyman, Stegenga, Broadbent, Dammann,Holman, Harris, and myself.
Check it out, here:
youtube.com/@profsmartle...
An alcoholic Fox News presenter runs the world's most powerful military.
#Trump sent mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace in the middle east.
The HHS secretary, an antivaxer, is on TV arguing against listening to experts for medical advice.
Madness. Total madness.
#Kakistocracy
#Trump sent mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace in the middle east.
The HHS secretary, an antivaxer, is on TV arguing against listening to experts for medical advice.
Madness. Total madness.
#Kakistocracy
August 22, 2026 at 7:51 PM
An alcoholic Fox News presenter runs the world's most powerful military.
#Trump sent mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace in the middle east.
The HHS secretary, an antivaxer, is on TV arguing against listening to experts for medical advice.
Madness. Total madness.
#Kakistocracy
#Trump sent mediocre real estate developers to negotiate peace in the middle east.
The HHS secretary, an antivaxer, is on TV arguing against listening to experts for medical advice.
Madness. Total madness.
#Kakistocracy
I currently feel like completing the marking and giving the feedback I owe, whilst also completing all the other teaching/research/admin my job entails, whilst also fulfilling my duties as a husband and father, is completely impossible in a 24 hours day when I need 6 hours sleep. That feeling sucks.
August 20, 2026 at 9:01 PM
I currently feel like completing the marking and giving the feedback I owe, whilst also completing all the other teaching/research/admin my job entails, whilst also fulfilling my duties as a husband and father, is completely impossible in a 24 hours day when I need 6 hours sleep. That feeling sucks.
This MIGHT be the best bit of news I've heard in a VERY long time. Does anyone have links to informed people writing on the specifics?
#Moderna #Cancer #Health #Medicine
#Moderna #Cancer #Health #Medicine
The trial marked the first successful final-stage study for any mRNA-based cancer therapy.
Moderna Shares Skyrocket 85% Toward Best Day Ever—On Success Of Cancer Drug Trial
The trial marked the first successful final-stage study for any mRNA-based cancer therapy.
www.forbes.com
August 20, 2026 at 11:05 AM
The politics of inequality. Why AOC is favourite for the democratic nomination, and where the prediction market trading opportunisties lie.
#2028Election @TheDemocrats
@AOC @CAgovernor
@PolymarketIntel
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
#2028Election @TheDemocrats
@AOC @CAgovernor
@PolymarketIntel
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
The Politics of Inequality
Democratic Socialism, Swing States, and Prediction Market Opportunities
open.substack.com
August 17, 2026 at 3:36 PM
The politics of inequality. Why AOC is favourite for the democratic nomination, and where the prediction market trading opportunisties lie.
#2028Election @TheDemocrats
@AOC @CAgovernor
@PolymarketIntel
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
#2028Election @TheDemocrats
@AOC @CAgovernor
@PolymarketIntel
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
Shocking treatment of Jason Arday. Did he deserve to lose his job? Well, possibly. Did he deserve to lose his life? Obviously not - but after the relentless hounding by the media, and all these people who suddenly saw fit to critique his work, nobody can be surprised. Take responsibility. Be better
August 15, 2026 at 7:13 AM
Shocking treatment of Jason Arday. Did he deserve to lose his job? Well, possibly. Did he deserve to lose his life? Obviously not - but after the relentless hounding by the media, and all these people who suddenly saw fit to critique his work, nobody can be surprised. Take responsibility. Be better
Need to hedge your investment portfolio against the AI bubble bursting? Think put options are too expensive? Consider using prediction markets.
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
#notfinancialadvice
#finance
#trading
@polymarket.extwitter.link
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
#notfinancialadvice
#finance
#trading
@polymarket.extwitter.link
How to Hedge AI-heavy Portfolios
The AI Bubble, Michael Burry, and the Ultimate Prediction Market Hedge
open.substack.com
August 14, 2026 at 9:15 AM
Need to hedge your investment portfolio against the AI bubble bursting? Think put options are too expensive? Consider using prediction markets.
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
#notfinancialadvice
#finance
#trading
@polymarket.extwitter.link
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
#notfinancialadvice
#finance
#trading
@polymarket.extwitter.link
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
Trump CAN legally be president in 2028 (via a proxy, at first), but prediction markets assigning a low probability to that. So... let's see who's in the race, who looks good, and who the market is mispricing.
#USpolitics #Trump #Finance
Trump CAN legally be president in 2028 (via a proxy, at first), but prediction markets assigning a low probability to that. So... let's see who's in the race, who looks good, and who the market is mispricing.
#USpolitics #Trump #Finance
Is Trump 2028 a Real Possibility?
What Prediction Markets tell us about the next President (and where the trading opportunities lie)
open.substack.com
August 13, 2026 at 12:48 PM
open.substack.com/pub/predicti...
Trump CAN legally be president in 2028 (via a proxy, at first), but prediction markets assigning a low probability to that. So... let's see who's in the race, who looks good, and who the market is mispricing.
#USpolitics #Trump #Finance
Trump CAN legally be president in 2028 (via a proxy, at first), but prediction markets assigning a low probability to that. So... let's see who's in the race, who looks good, and who the market is mispricing.
#USpolitics #Trump #Finance
substack.com/@predictionm...
Trading Trump's Malignant Narcissism
#substack #Trump #predictionmarkets #polymarket #kalshi
Trading Trump's Malignant Narcissism
#substack #Trump #predictionmarkets #polymarket #kalshi
Prof Benjamin Smart (@predictionmarketprof)
Trading Trump: Can you Profit from Malignant Narcisissm?
substack.com
August 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM
substack.com/@predictionm...
Trading Trump's Malignant Narcissism
#substack #Trump #predictionmarkets #polymarket #kalshi
Trading Trump's Malignant Narcissism
#substack #Trump #predictionmarkets #polymarket #kalshi
