@laggingtruth.com
LaggingTruth.com (@laggingtruth)
substack.com
September 22, 2026 at 5:30 PM
LaggingTruth.com (@laggingtruth)
substack.com
September 21, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Remember the big Social Security raise? 8.7%, the largest since 1981. Reported everywhere as good news.
Prices that year rose about 3%.
It wasn't generosity. It was two years of shortfall arriving late, sized for a fire that was already out.
#Economics #PersonalFinance
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
Prices that year rose about 3%.
It wasn't generosity. It was two years of shortfall arriving late, sized for a fire that was already out.
#Economics #PersonalFinance
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
LaggingTruth.com (@laggingtruth)
Remember the big Social Security raise? 8.7% — the largest since 1981. It was reported everywhere as good news.
Prices that year rose about 3%.
It wasn't generosity. It was two years of shortfall ar...
substack.com
September 20, 2026 at 4:56 PM
Remember the big Social Security raise? 8.7%, the largest since 1981. Reported everywhere as good news.
Prices that year rose about 3%.
It wasn't generosity. It was two years of shortfall arriving late, sized for a fire that was already out.
#Economics #PersonalFinance
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
Prices that year rose about 3%.
It wasn't generosity. It was two years of shortfall arriving late, sized for a fire that was already out.
#Economics #PersonalFinance
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
Fighter-jet manuals say: when the plane swings harder with each correction, let go of the stick. The swings are made of corrections.
Make the delay a year. A retiree's raise: 1.3%, 5.9%, 8.7% — vs prices of 5.9%, 8.7%, 3%.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-loop
#Economics #EconSky
Make the delay a year. A retiree's raise: 1.3%, 5.9%, 8.7% — vs prices of 5.9%, 8.7%, 3%.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-loop
#Economics #EconSky
September 13, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Fighter-jet manuals say: when the plane swings harder with each correction, let go of the stick. The swings are made of corrections.
Make the delay a year. A retiree's raise: 1.3%, 5.9%, 8.7% — vs prices of 5.9%, 8.7%, 3%.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-loop
#Economics #EconSky
Make the delay a year. A retiree's raise: 1.3%, 5.9%, 8.7% — vs prices of 5.9%, 8.7%, 3%.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-loop
#Economics #EconSky
Oil through $103. VIX +24% this week. S&P down four straight.
My recession board moved further from triggering today. Second week running.
Fast instruments move first. The slow ones haven't been told yet.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
My recession board moved further from triggering today. Second week running.
Fast instruments move first. The slow ones haven't been told yet.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
No Recession Detected — Yet
A registered detector, recomputed weekly from public unemployment filings, currently reads all quiet. What it watches — and what it will say first when that changes.
laggingtruth.substack.com
September 10, 2026 at 11:15 PM
Oil through $103. VIX +24% this week. S&P down four straight.
My recession board moved further from triggering today. Second week running.
Fast instruments move first. The slow ones haven't been told yet.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
My recession board moved further from triggering today. Second week running.
Fast instruments move first. The slow ones haven't been told yet.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
In 2008, 22 drivers were put on a circular track with one job: hold 30 km/h. No exits, no phones. A traffic jam formed anyway. That's how most expensive mistakes work: the cost/blame lands miles & months from the actual cause.
#Economics #EconSky #Psychology
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-phantom
#Economics #EconSky #Psychology
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-phantom
The Phantom
A traffic jam with no wreck, a man with a sandwich, and why the bill never finds its way home.
laggingtruth.substack.com
September 6, 2026 at 5:38 PM
In 2008, 22 drivers were put on a circular track with one job: hold 30 km/h. No exits, no phones. A traffic jam formed anyway. That's how most expensive mistakes work: the cost/blame lands miles & months from the actual cause.
#Economics #EconSky #Psychology
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-phantom
#Economics #EconSky #Psychology
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-phantom
A flu detection system that beats current methods by an average of 8 weeks AND identifies the dominant strain - time for the med. industry to prep and get staffed - time that can save lives. This season the system is put to the test.
#Economics #PublicHealth #DataScience
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
#Economics #PublicHealth #DataScience
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
LaggingTruth.com (@laggingtruth)
Flu season opens in about a month. The alarm for it is already armed — and it isn't a medical model.
It's the same fast-minus-slow gap construction traders know as MACD, pointed at the CDC's flu data...
substack.com
September 2, 2026 at 3:49 PM
A flu detection system that beats current methods by an average of 8 weeks AND identifies the dominant strain - time for the med. industry to prep and get staffed - time that can save lives. This season the system is put to the test.
#Economics #PublicHealth #DataScience
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
#Economics #PublicHealth #DataScience
substack.com/@laggingtrut...
We tested "price reverts to the mean" on 11 markets, up to 155 yrs of data.
All 44 tests: the average did most of the moving — not the price. In 33, the price was walking away while the gap closed.
The reflection is not the star: substack.com/profile/2572...
#Economics #Finance #EconSky
All 44 tests: the average did most of the moving — not the price. In 33, the price was walking away while the gap closed.
The reflection is not the star: substack.com/profile/2572...
#Economics #Finance #EconSky
LaggingTruth.com (@laggingtruth)
"Price reverting to the mean." "Bouncing off the 200-day." Every chart-watcher says it. So we measured it: when a price and its moving average close a gap, who covers the distance?
Across 44 instrume...
substack.com
August 30, 2026 at 7:57 PM
We tested "price reverts to the mean" on 11 markets, up to 155 yrs of data.
All 44 tests: the average did most of the moving — not the price. In 33, the price was walking away while the gap closed.
The reflection is not the star: substack.com/profile/2572...
#Economics #Finance #EconSky
All 44 tests: the average did most of the moving — not the price. In 33, the price was walking away while the gap closed.
The reflection is not the star: substack.com/profile/2572...
#Economics #Finance #EconSky
No Recession Detected — Yet
A registered detector, recomputed weekly from public unemployment filings, currently reads all quiet. What it watches — and what it will say first when that changes.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
A registered detector, recomputed weekly from public unemployment filings, currently reads all quiet. What it watches — and what it will say first when that changes.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
No Recession Detected — Yet
A registered detector, recomputed weekly from public unemployment filings, currently reads all quiet. What it watches — and what it will say first when that changes.
laggingtruth.substack.com
August 25, 2026 at 3:20 PM
No Recession Detected — Yet
A registered detector, recomputed weekly from public unemployment filings, currently reads all quiet. What it watches — and what it will say first when that changes.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
A registered detector, recomputed weekly from public unemployment filings, currently reads all quiet. What it watches — and what it will say first when that changes.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/no-recessi...
Perfectly, Uselessly Correct
A restaurant rating, a retirement cheque, and the strange harm done by numbers that are exactly right.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/perfectly-...
A restaurant rating, a retirement cheque, and the strange harm done by numbers that are exactly right.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/perfectly-...
Perfectly, Uselessly Correct
A restaurant rating, a retirement cheque, and the strange harm done by numbers that are exactly right.
laggingtruth.substack.com
August 23, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Perfectly, Uselessly Correct
A restaurant rating, a retirement cheque, and the strange harm done by numbers that are exactly right.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/perfectly-...
A restaurant rating, a retirement cheque, and the strange harm done by numbers that are exactly right.
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/perfectly-...
The Lagging Truth Series
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-laggin...
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-laggin...
The Lagging Truth Series
Quality of Information
laggingtruth.substack.com
August 16, 2026 at 2:52 PM
The Lagging Truth Series
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-laggin...
laggingtruth.substack.com/p/the-laggin...