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@wpears.bsky.social
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but theorems output as the collateral exhaust fumes of model evals give you facts, not insights. At least not directly. Only by studying those facts intensively can you relate those facts back to genuine insight. And that's the heart of the fissure between labs and the mathematical community.
October 7, 2026 at 5:25 AM
but theorems output as the collateral exhaust fumes of model evals give you facts, not insights. At least not directly. Only by studying those facts intensively can you relate those facts back to genuine insight. And that's the heart of the fissure between labs and the mathematical community.
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an equilibrium where ~everyone can direct ~♾️ compute to do ~anything is a world where anything to do with networked computers with any aspect of scarcity or adversariality basically doesn't work. it also has perilous consequences for anything relying on authentication or human-centered engagement.
October 10, 2026 at 2:26 PM
an equilibrium where ~everyone can direct ~♾️ compute to do ~anything is a world where anything to do with networked computers with any aspect of scarcity or adversariality basically doesn't work. it also has perilous consequences for anything relying on authentication or human-centered engagement.
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I don’t understand why people think this isn’t the most obvious question in the world. No, of course not. You don’t know what the distribution of responses will be; that’s why you do the survey.
In case you've been wondering about the viability of AI simulated surveys, Pew has offered in-depth reporting on their experiment with simulated survey participants.
By Athena Chapekis, Arnold Lau, Samuel Bestvater, Sono Shah, Andrew Mercer, Aaron Smith
www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...
By Athena Chapekis, Arnold Lau, Samuel Bestvater, Sono Shah, Andrew Mercer, Aaron Smith
www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...
Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really
Synthetic surveys using digital twins do a poor job estimating the public mood and are especially error-prone for some subgroups, including Republicans and Black adults.
www.pewresearch.org
October 8, 2026 at 1:49 PM
I don’t understand why people think this isn’t the most obvious question in the world. No, of course not. You don’t know what the distribution of responses will be; that’s why you do the survey.
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Another day working at the frontier AI lab. Everyone keeps asking me if the models have qualia. Buddy, I don’t even have qualia.
October 3, 2026 at 6:01 PM
Another day working at the frontier AI lab. Everyone keeps asking me if the models have qualia. Buddy, I don’t even have qualia.
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DOGE took over the pipes at Treasury and since that point, Russell Thurlow Vought has ignored the democratic instructions of the American People. He has got to go.
October 3, 2026 at 10:02 PM
DOGE took over the pipes at Treasury and since that point, Russell Thurlow Vought has ignored the democratic instructions of the American People. He has got to go.
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What everyone has to prepare for is the constitutional crisis to accelerate if the Democrats take the House and the Senate. Vought has been allowed by the Republicans to act with impunity, so have he will continue to ignore Congress. This is why you have to impeach him immediately.
Killed. NSF’s SBE was killed, in violation of law. The President does not have the power to choose to kill programs at a whim by defunding them. The imperial presidency was a mistake and we are in a separation of powers constitutional crisis.
The fiscal year is over.
The dying Social, Behavioral, and Economic division of NSF ended up awarding 90 total grants this year, as opposed to ~700-800 in recent past years.
Source: grantwitness.org/nsf/analyses...
The dying Social, Behavioral, and Economic division of NSF ended up awarding 90 total grants this year, as opposed to ~700-800 in recent past years.
Source: grantwitness.org/nsf/analyses...
October 3, 2026 at 10:00 PM
What everyone has to prepare for is the constitutional crisis to accelerate if the Democrats take the House and the Senate. Vought has been allowed by the Republicans to act with impunity, so have he will continue to ignore Congress. This is why you have to impeach him immediately.
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Pass a law clarifying that the supreme court’s appellate jurisdiction does not begin until a final ruling has been made by district and appeals courts.
BREAKING: SCOTUS allows the Trump admin to restart third-country removals under a policy found by lower courts to violate federal law. The Democratic appointees dissent.
The deportations will be OK'ed at least through the next several months, with SCOTUS agreeing to hear the case in December.
The deportations will be OK'ed at least through the next several months, with SCOTUS agreeing to hear the case in December.
September 29, 2026 at 8:51 PM
Pass a law clarifying that the supreme court’s appellate jurisdiction does not begin until a final ruling has been made by district and appeals courts.
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I feel we are wasting some time, effort, and resources on making sure that Claude is a certain kind of guy when really all we need are the facts that he knows.
September 21, 2026 at 6:48 PM
I feel we are wasting some time, effort, and resources on making sure that Claude is a certain kind of guy when really all we need are the facts that he knows.
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anyway that is my local governance platform. cheaper housing, cheaper commercial real estate, a more vibrant and livable city.
September 21, 2026 at 12:06 AM
anyway that is my local governance platform. cheaper housing, cheaper commercial real estate, a more vibrant and livable city.
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This made me laugh until tears came out of my eyes
found a whole operation of unmanned youtube channels making completely unchecked long form slop videos where the ai voice simulacra regularly trips up & does this for a full ten minutes every time.
all the very legit comments are like "NO! THATS NOT TRUE! YOU LIE HE DID NOT" & never acknowledge it.
all the very legit comments are like "NO! THATS NOT TRUE! YOU LIE HE DID NOT" & never acknowledge it.
September 19, 2026 at 9:39 PM
This made me laugh until tears came out of my eyes
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It's genuinely fascinating that the US president keeps announcing that he just flat out doesn't know what trade is, he legit doesn't appreciate the concept of exchange and instead views economic activity through the lens of a dragon attempting to maximise its gold hoard to sit upon.
Well, that took longer than I thought, but he hath spoken:
September 16, 2026 at 9:27 PM
It's genuinely fascinating that the US president keeps announcing that he just flat out doesn't know what trade is, he legit doesn't appreciate the concept of exchange and instead views economic activity through the lens of a dragon attempting to maximise its gold hoard to sit upon.
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“Abolish ICE” was immediately met with eye rolling condescension and after events proved that policy correct, and support *among Democrats* for it exploded to like 80%, it didn’t move party leaders at all. How is this tenable
September 14, 2026 at 5:53 PM
“Abolish ICE” was immediately met with eye rolling condescension and after events proved that policy correct, and support *among Democrats* for it exploded to like 80%, it didn’t move party leaders at all. How is this tenable
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This is going to make me sound old and maybe a little nostalgic but it’s really striking how in the Trump era, no one even pretends to debate about policy anymore.
September 14, 2026 at 12:39 AM
This is going to make me sound old and maybe a little nostalgic but it’s really striking how in the Trump era, no one even pretends to debate about policy anymore.
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America has no president
“Everything will work out just fine,” Trump said. “It’s all gonna work out fine.”
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
As Iran proxies activate in Yemen and Iraq, Trump’s Mideast morass deepens
Two of the most important corridors for international energy shipments are blocked by Iran and its proxies, oil prices are up and the global economy is reeling.
www.washingtonpost.com
September 13, 2026 at 11:17 PM
America has no president
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ok I am extremely not a fan of the CFAA (and I haven't had time to read enough of this to know whether this particular attribution holds up to scrutiny) but like, at some point somebody at OpenAI has got to go to prison if we're even slightly pretending that the law still applies to corporate actors
September 12, 2026 at 1:40 AM
ok I am extremely not a fan of the CFAA (and I haven't had time to read enough of this to know whether this particular attribution holds up to scrutiny) but like, at some point somebody at OpenAI has got to go to prison if we're even slightly pretending that the law still applies to corporate actors
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The very notion of distillation “attack” is somewhat absurd
anthropic calling chinese ai companies "threat actors" for slurping up data is still so funny
September 10, 2026 at 8:15 PM
The very notion of distillation “attack” is somewhat absurd
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Kawase Hasui. Rain in Maekawa, Sōshū, 1932, February.
September 10, 2026 at 4:49 AM
Kawase Hasui. Rain in Maekawa, Sōshū, 1932, February.
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My buddy Keith Pluymers and I recorded a pod the first week of 2017 where we talked about the US political system as a series of tectonic plates grinding against each other that would, in stages, slip pretty dramatically; I think that take holds up, but it wasn't exactly clairvoyance to say it then.
August 29, 2026 at 5:12 PM
My buddy Keith Pluymers and I recorded a pod the first week of 2017 where we talked about the US political system as a series of tectonic plates grinding against each other that would, in stages, slip pretty dramatically; I think that take holds up, but it wasn't exactly clairvoyance to say it then.
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These people had protected status. They lived here legally. They worked, they paid taxes. They made lives. Raised families.
Now we’ve dehumanized them. Ripped away that protection and told them to get out.
This is a stain on the soul of this Nation.
Now we’ve dehumanized them. Ripped away that protection and told them to get out.
This is a stain on the soul of this Nation.
August 28, 2026 at 1:10 AM
These people had protected status. They lived here legally. They worked, they paid taxes. They made lives. Raised families.
Now we’ve dehumanized them. Ripped away that protection and told them to get out.
This is a stain on the soul of this Nation.
Now we’ve dehumanized them. Ripped away that protection and told them to get out.
This is a stain on the soul of this Nation.
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I think our utter lack of political will to do ~anything is a damnation of American civic culture
August 22, 2026 at 5:47 PM
I think our utter lack of political will to do ~anything is a damnation of American civic culture
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yeah man "woke 1" sucked ass. I "woke 1" morning from uneasy dreams to find myself transformed into a giant insect
August 13, 2026 at 7:41 PM
yeah man "woke 1" sucked ass. I "woke 1" morning from uneasy dreams to find myself transformed into a giant insect
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legislation cannot fix this. at present, a profesisonal civil service is unconstitutional.
The idea that deep institutional damage can be easily rolled back seems like a very odd take for a conservative. The damage to the civil service system is huge, and legislation is needed to reassure future hires they won’t be fired on a whim.
also, describing a lack of legislative capacity as a point against authoritarian consolidation misses the point: the defining feature of Trump’s second term is consolidation of power in the *executive* - the lack of legislative authorization makes him more authoritarian, not less
August 9, 2026 at 6:09 PM
legislation cannot fix this. at present, a profesisonal civil service is unconstitutional.
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with times being what they are, it seems like you basically can't have a public open source repo without receiving LLM-written PRs. thus, after a great deal of thought, i have adopted the somewhat idiosyncratic Mycelium AI Policy in my personal projects: github.com/hawkw/myceli...
chore: introducing the Mycelium AI Policy (#566) · hawkw/mycelium@b77e854
github.com
August 7, 2026 at 6:40 PM
with times being what they are, it seems like you basically can't have a public open source repo without receiving LLM-written PRs. thus, after a great deal of thought, i have adopted the somewhat idiosyncratic Mycelium AI Policy in my personal projects: github.com/hawkw/myceli...
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across the entire dem political spectrum, increasingly, the question that i think is most important is "what do you want to do with this power you are asking for?", and it's the least likely question to be asked of them, it drives me insane
July 12, 2026 at 9:17 PM
across the entire dem political spectrum, increasingly, the question that i think is most important is "what do you want to do with this power you are asking for?", and it's the least likely question to be asked of them, it drives me insane
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Trump and Vought have spent a year and half degrading and corrupting the CFPB and tormenting its workers. Despite all that, many of us are still there fighting to get the agency back in the business of serving all Americans. www.notus.org/agencies/cfp...
Diminished But Still Alive: Inside Russ Vought’s CFPB
Hundreds of employees around the country must relocate to Washington, D.C., or risk termination from the agency that has repeatedly attempted to eliminate their jobs.
www.notus.org
July 10, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Trump and Vought have spent a year and half degrading and corrupting the CFPB and tormenting its workers. Despite all that, many of us are still there fighting to get the agency back in the business of serving all Americans. www.notus.org/agencies/cfp...