Tech lending fuels European risk
3h
Rising interest rates and AI-driven surge in private lending prompted major U.S. tech firms to tap European credit markets, increasingly competing with government bonds and raising systemic risk, analysts warned.
The bond market has figured out that there's no plan to stop borrowing. This year's deficit is the largest postwar deficit outside a recession or war. Trump can say whatever he wants, but the markets are only looking at the bank statements. https://youtu.be/P-zk1Jk6ntQ
September 18, 2026 at 12:36 PM
The bond market has figured out that there's no plan to stop borrowing. This year's deficit is the largest postwar deficit outside a recession or war. Trump can say whatever he wants, but the markets are only looking at the bank statements. https://youtu.be/P-zk1Jk6ntQ
A reminder as we discuss AI safety: Deregulation (or allowing corporations to "self regulate") only masks another kind of trickle-down economics — one where the financial gains go to the top, and nothing trickles down except risks and losses for everyone else.
September 18, 2026 at 10:15 PM
A reminder as we discuss AI safety: Deregulation (or allowing corporations to "self regulate") only masks another kind of trickle-down economics — one where the financial gains go to the top, and nothing trickles down except risks and losses for everyone else.
I tire of these parasites.
They do everything in their power to destroy the democratic governance and regulatory systems of the countries that enabled them to grow rich, but they always come running when it's time to foist the costs of their reckless decisions onto taxpayers.
See also: SV Bank.
They do everything in their power to destroy the democratic governance and regulatory systems of the countries that enabled them to grow rich, but they always come running when it's time to foist the costs of their reckless decisions onto taxpayers.
See also: SV Bank.
Alex Karp of Palantir says the AI industry must be nationalized to protect it from lawsuits if it accidentally destroys the world. More likely, he sees the bubble about to burst and he wants to be bought out with our tax dollars before that happens.
September 18, 2026 at 11:22 PM
I tire of these parasites.
They do everything in their power to destroy the democratic governance and regulatory systems of the countries that enabled them to grow rich, but they always come running when it's time to foist the costs of their reckless decisions onto taxpayers.
See also: SV Bank.
They do everything in their power to destroy the democratic governance and regulatory systems of the countries that enabled them to grow rich, but they always come running when it's time to foist the costs of their reckless decisions onto taxpayers.
See also: SV Bank.
"Artificial Intelligence and Labor Markets: Evidence from Google Trends" has been published at the Journal of Economics and Finance: doi.org/10.1007/s12197-025-... Free working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.482...
September 18, 2026 at 10:30 PM
"Artificial Intelligence and Labor Markets: Evidence from Google Trends" has been published at the Journal of Economics and Finance: doi.org/10.1007/s12197-025-... Free working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.482...
While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages.
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
September 18, 2026 at 6:15 PM
While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages.
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
ICYMI, the demand side of private credit
The growth of private credit has often been attributed to tighter banking regulation and low policy rates. Such things certainly played a role early on, but they are difficult to reconcile with the rapid growth in private credit since 2020, when rates went up and regulation, if anything, loosened
September 18, 2026 at 8:13 AM
ICYMI, the demand side of private credit
JUST PUBLISHED: "International Spillovers of Conventional versus Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy" is available at International Finance doi.org/10.1111/infi.70022
Working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.542...
Working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.542...
September 18, 2026 at 1:30 PM
JUST PUBLISHED: "International Spillovers of Conventional versus Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy" is available at International Finance doi.org/10.1111/infi.70022
Working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.542...
Working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.542...
Reposted by Christopher Wright
15/ The *scale* of the US investment in datacenters is staggering.
Other countries are having similar conversations about the effect of AI on economic development, electricity and land etc but hard to compete with US financial sector & technological dominance of AI firms @katemac.bsky.social
Other countries are having similar conversations about the effect of AI on economic development, electricity and land etc but hard to compete with US financial sector & technological dominance of AI firms @katemac.bsky.social
September 18, 2026 at 6:13 PM
15/ The *scale* of the US investment in datacenters is staggering.
Other countries are having similar conversations about the effect of AI on economic development, electricity and land etc but hard to compete with US financial sector & technological dominance of AI firms @katemac.bsky.social
Other countries are having similar conversations about the effect of AI on economic development, electricity and land etc but hard to compete with US financial sector & technological dominance of AI firms @katemac.bsky.social
by Andrew Watt
I agree. But that also implies that, at a time of an AI boom, it is not wise to run large deficits.I fear this will not end well.
And structurally, I think government borrowing should be invested (in the widest sense) and not just recycled back to bondholders.
And structurally, I think government borrowing should be invested (in the widest sense) and not just recycled back to bondholders.
September 18, 2026 at 5:27 AM
I agree. But that also implies that, at a time of an AI boom, it is not wise to run large deficits.I fear this will not end well.
And structurally, I think government borrowing should be invested (in the widest sense) and not just recycled back to bondholders.
And structurally, I think government borrowing should be invested (in the widest sense) and not just recycled back to bondholders.
Caixin: "Traditional bank loans have fallen to less than 60% of China’s total credit supply for the first time in seven years, as plunging interest rates drive corporate and government borrowers into the bond market."
www.caixinglobal.com/2026-09-16/a...
www.caixinglobal.com/2026-09-16/a...
Analysis: Plunging Yields and Debt Swaps Are Rewiring China’s Credit Market
The shift reflects a prolonged low-interest-rate environment and Beijing’s sweeping local government debt-resolution plan, which are accelerating the transition toward direct financing
www.caixinglobal.com
September 18, 2026 at 7:39 AM
Caixin: "Traditional bank loans have fallen to less than 60% of China’s total credit supply for the first time in seven years, as plunging interest rates drive corporate and government borrowers into the bond market."
www.caixinglobal.com/2026-09-16/a...
www.caixinglobal.com/2026-09-16/a...
Reposted by Brooke Harrington, Kate Jackson
Alex Karp of Palantir says the AI industry must be nationalized to protect it from lawsuits if it accidentally destroys the world. More likely, he sees the bubble about to burst and he wants to be bought out with our tax dollars before that happens.
September 18, 2026 at 10:58 PM
Alex Karp of Palantir says the AI industry must be nationalized to protect it from lawsuits if it accidentally destroys the world. More likely, he sees the bubble about to burst and he wants to be bought out with our tax dollars before that happens.
by Andrew Watt
Key is that r moves sluggishly bc of the big historical component. US (& EU countries) still benefit from low past interest rates. But that cuts both ways. Current high rates also get baked in. If g falls and so do current interest rates, the govt still has a problem bc r takes a long time to fall.
September 18, 2026 at 4:05 AM
Key is that r moves sluggishly bc of the big historical component. US (& EU countries) still benefit from low past interest rates. But that cuts both ways. Current high rates also get baked in. If g falls and so do current interest rates, the govt still has a problem bc r takes a long time to fall.
by John Spoehr
Raising the spectre of a powerful omnipotent technology catches the imagination of investors. Fear rather than hype is now the feedstock of the AI feeding frenzy. Beware major AI CEO’s offering to shape regulatory environments. AI legislation needed to mitigate AI harm and risk.
September 18, 2026 at 6:22 AM
Raising the spectre of a powerful omnipotent technology catches the imagination of investors. Fear rather than hype is now the feedstock of the AI feeding frenzy. Beware major AI CEO’s offering to shape regulatory environments. AI legislation needed to mitigate AI harm and risk.
Reposted by John R. Hutchinson
The enornmity of the AI moment in markets in a few killer stats here in this column by Richard Waters on whether AI has broken the old VC model as.ft.com/r/95cda12f-f...
September 18, 2026 at 10:46 AM
The enornmity of the AI moment in markets in a few killer stats here in this column by Richard Waters on whether AI has broken the old VC model as.ft.com/r/95cda12f-f...
by Andrew Watt
Important and indeed counterintuitive points.a large interest burden, apparently, helps with the debt maths.
Still I think this is too sanguine for the US. Historically r-g hasn't been sustained at -2.5 for extended periods.Average r is rising. g likely not (unless AI boom).
Still I think this is too sanguine for the US. Historically r-g hasn't been sustained at -2.5 for extended periods.Average r is rising. g likely not (unless AI boom).
September 18, 2026 at 3:57 AM
Important and indeed counterintuitive points.a large interest burden, apparently, helps with the debt maths.
Still I think this is too sanguine for the US. Historically r-g hasn't been sustained at -2.5 for extended periods.Average r is rising. g likely not (unless AI boom).
Still I think this is too sanguine for the US. Historically r-g hasn't been sustained at -2.5 for extended periods.Average r is rising. g likely not (unless AI boom).