Oil fears lift bond yields
2m
Government bond yields surged in the United States, France and other major economies as oil-driven inflation fears and heavy public debt intensified concerns over borrowing costs.
France has taken center stage these days among the G7's three most bond-sensitive economies, with the French-German 10-year spread moving more than 50 bps in the last month.
(The other two economies are Japan and the UK.)
#economy #markets #france #Eurozone #europe #bonds #yields
(The other two economies are Japan and the UK.)
#economy #markets #france #Eurozone #europe #bonds #yields
October 2, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Monetary policy shocks are responsible for higher exchange rate pass-through which can be reduced by a more flexible exchange rate regime or a credible commitment to an inflation target. doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin....
October 2, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Monetary policy shocks are responsible for higher exchange rate pass-through which can be reduced by a more flexible exchange rate regime or a credible commitment to an inflation target. doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin....
Reposted by Christian E. Weller
FEDWATCH: “.. For bonds to enter a sustained rally, .. inflation must decline further to break the correlation between oil prices and yields. .. With news of an additional aircraft carrier heading to the Gulf, yields moved up, and oil prices jumped.”
October 2, 2026 at 12:30 AM
FEDWATCH: “.. For bonds to enter a sustained rally, .. inflation must decline further to break the correlation between oil prices and yields. .. With news of an additional aircraft carrier heading to the Gulf, yields moved up, and oil prices jumped.”
Talking stablecoins and Treasuries (definitely not Treasurys) at the WBS conference on DeFi and Digital Currencies in London a few days ago.
October 2, 2026 at 7:49 AM
Talking stablecoins and Treasuries (definitely not Treasurys) at the WBS conference on DeFi and Digital Currencies in London a few days ago.
This is a good example of domestic political considerations and geopolitical pressures driving an economic policy decision in this era of geo-economics.
Releasing these strategic reserves helps partially shield consumers from soaring prices, but it’s also a high-stakes,...
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Releasing these strategic reserves helps partially shield consumers from soaring prices, but it’s also a high-stakes,...
1 of 2
October 2, 2026 at 4:24 PM
This is a good example of domestic political considerations and geopolitical pressures driving an economic policy decision in this era of geo-economics.
Releasing these strategic reserves helps partially shield consumers from soaring prices, but it’s also a high-stakes,...
1 of 2
Releasing these strategic reserves helps partially shield consumers from soaring prices, but it’s also a high-stakes,...
1 of 2
On the worry I've mentioned before that interest rate risk may morph into credit/spread risk:
Bloomberg: "Credit markets are showing signs of caution, as investors pull back from treating high-grade debt as a bastion of safety amid lingering worries about record borrowings and inflation."
#economy
Bloomberg: "Credit markets are showing signs of caution, as investors pull back from treating high-grade debt as a bastion of safety amid lingering worries about record borrowings and inflation."
#economy
October 2, 2026 at 11:53 AM
On the worry I've mentioned before that interest rate risk may morph into credit/spread risk:
Bloomberg: "Credit markets are showing signs of caution, as investors pull back from treating high-grade debt as a bastion of safety amid lingering worries about record borrowings and inflation."
#economy
Bloomberg: "Credit markets are showing signs of caution, as investors pull back from treating high-grade debt as a bastion of safety amid lingering worries about record borrowings and inflation."
#economy
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 25 Sep #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
October 1, 2026 at 8:53 PM
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 25 Sep #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
Further to earlier posts on G7 fragilities, this from Bloomberg:
"The country’s 10-year yield has risen more than one percentage point since June, its worst quarterly performance since the birth of the single currency....
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"The country’s 10-year yield has risen more than one percentage point since June, its worst quarterly performance since the birth of the single currency....
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October 2, 2026 at 10:10 AM
Further to earlier posts on G7 fragilities, this from Bloomberg:
"The country’s 10-year yield has risen more than one percentage point since June, its worst quarterly performance since the birth of the single currency....
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"The country’s 10-year yield has risen more than one percentage point since June, its worst quarterly performance since the birth of the single currency....
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Here’s the US Treasury market reaction to the soft jobs report.
Note the continued retracement in 2-year yields as traders moderate Fed rate hike expectations.
The next major data catalyst here will be CPI inflation on October 14th.
(Bloomberg data below.)
#economy #markets #bonds #inflation
Note the continued retracement in 2-year yields as traders moderate Fed rate hike expectations.
The next major data catalyst here will be CPI inflation on October 14th.
(Bloomberg data below.)
#economy #markets #bonds #inflation
October 2, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Here’s the US Treasury market reaction to the soft jobs report.
Note the continued retracement in 2-year yields as traders moderate Fed rate hike expectations.
The next major data catalyst here will be CPI inflation on October 14th.
(Bloomberg data below.)
#economy #markets #bonds #inflation
Note the continued retracement in 2-year yields as traders moderate Fed rate hike expectations.
The next major data catalyst here will be CPI inflation on October 14th.
(Bloomberg data below.)
#economy #markets #bonds #inflation
From the FT: "US mortgage rates jumped the most in four years as an accelerating sell-off in the government bond market deals a fresh blow to the housing market just weeks ahead of midterm elections.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.28 per cent as of October 1...."
#economy #markets
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.28 per cent as of October 1...."
#economy #markets
October 1, 2026 at 10:08 PM