Democrats Outperform Polls in Midterms
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Democrats made stronger-than-expected gains in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, as polls broadly underestimated their support, with pollsters pointing to shared survey errors.
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Trump says "I think my level of popularity maybe is higher now" than ever "other than what happened at the midterms"
November 12, 2026 at 8:47 PM
Trump says "I think my level of popularity maybe is higher now" than ever "other than what happened at the midterms"
A first look at polls' 2026 performance from Caroline Soler and @ruthigielnik.bsky.social: "National polls this year underestimated the strength of Democrats by around 4 percentage points." www.nytimes.com/2026/11/12/u...
Why 2026 Midterm Polls Underestimated Democratic Support
Democratic gains were expected, but surveys almost uniformly underestimated how well the left would do. Many pollsters seem to have made similar mistakes.
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2026 at 1:04 AM
Polls Found Strength for Democrats, but Still Missed Badly
Why 2026 Midterm Polls Underestimated Democratic Support (Gift Article)
Democratic gains were expected, but surveys almost uniformly underestimated how well the left would do. Many pollsters seem to have made similar mistakes.
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2026 at 8:41 PM
Polls Found Strength for Democrats, but Still Missed Badly
Reposted by Will Jennings, David Darmofal
UPDATE: 2026 was a D+13.64 midterm.
Democrats are now just 222,036 votes away from surpassing Hillary Clinton's 2016 popular vote total from a *Presidential* year.
(yes, the U.S. population has grown 5.5% since then but still)
Democrats are now just 222,036 votes away from surpassing Hillary Clinton's 2016 popular vote total from a *Presidential* year.
(yes, the U.S. population has grown 5.5% since then but still)
November 12, 2026 at 2:16 PM
UPDATE: 2026 was a D+13.64 midterm.
Democrats are now just 222,036 votes away from surpassing Hillary Clinton's 2016 popular vote total from a *Presidential* year.
(yes, the U.S. population has grown 5.5% since then but still)
Democrats are now just 222,036 votes away from surpassing Hillary Clinton's 2016 popular vote total from a *Presidential* year.
(yes, the U.S. population has grown 5.5% since then but still)
Reposted by Mark J. Rozell
Just published: Why pollsters think surveys undershot Democrats’ midterm strength. Gift link -> wapo.st/3WCRSvq
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Why pollsters think surveys undershot Democrats’ midterm strength
Plus: Faith in democracy and Trump’s power in the GOP.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 12, 2026 at 4:16 PM
Just published: Why pollsters think surveys undershot Democrats’ midterm strength. Gift link -> wapo.st/3WCRSvq
Get the Pollwatcher newsletter in your inbox -> subscribe.washingtonpost.com/newsletters/...
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This is interesting because when Trump was riding high, polls of Southern states tended to be more accurate than polls of Northern states like IA, OH, MI, etc. Now, with Trumpism waning, the polls most understated Democratic strength in Southern states.
NEW: A state-by-state look at how the polls did in 2026. Polls overestimated Republicans/underestimated Democrats in most major statewide races. One exception was the Pennsylvania governor's race, which Democrat Josh Shapiro still won by 22 points. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
November 12, 2026 at 10:54 PM
This is interesting because when Trump was riding high, polls of Southern states tended to be more accurate than polls of Northern states like IA, OH, MI, etc. Now, with Trumpism waning, the polls most understated Democratic strength in Southern states.
Debate is what healthy political parties do.
November 12, 2026 at 11:15 PM
Debate is what healthy political parties do.
Reposted by Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò
A first look at polls' 2026 performance from Caroline Soler and @ruthigielnik.bsky.social: "National polls this year underestimated the strength of Democrats by around 4 percentage points." www.nytimes.com/2026/11/12/u...
Why 2026 Midterm Polls Underestimated Democratic Support
Democratic gains were expected, but surveys almost uniformly underestimated how well the left would do. Many pollsters seem to have made similar mistakes.
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2026 at 12:54 AM
A first look at polls' 2026 performance from Caroline Soler and @ruthigielnik.bsky.social: "National polls this year underestimated the strength of Democrats by around 4 percentage points." www.nytimes.com/2026/11/12/u...
Reposted by Daniel W. Drezner
NEW: Just how much did Stacey Abrams and her org Fair Fight Action contribute to Scott Colom’s victory—and the other high profile wins by Dems in the South? We bring you the details of the years-long ground game that built on losses to achieve this year’s wins: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
A Democratic Ground Game Reshaped the Political Map of the South
Local organizers helped power new records for Black voters and candidates in the South, and aim to push that success well into future elections.
www.bloomberg.com
November 12, 2026 at 4:29 PM
NEW: Just how much did Stacey Abrams and her org Fair Fight Action contribute to Scott Colom’s victory—and the other high profile wins by Dems in the South? We bring you the details of the years-long ground game that built on losses to achieve this year’s wins: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Reposted by Trevon D. Logan
That big shift from did not vote to vote Democratic ought to be the goal every cycle and you achieve it by organizing and actively addressing needs.
This is interesting. Voters under 30 who backed Trump in 2024 were three times as likely to sit out 2026 as to switch to a Democrat. Most Harris voters came back. By my estimate from the NORC data, ~70% of the youth swing came from turnout.
November 12, 2026 at 11:46 AM
That big shift from did not vote to vote Democratic ought to be the goal every cycle and you achieve it by organizing and actively addressing needs.
Trump is Taking a page out of the 2020 playbook—the big question in my mind is if Republicans and R-leaning media join this campaign to challenge the outcome of the midterms. If they do, things could devolve for American democracy quite quickly…
Trump, lunatic posting this morn, is back to lying that midterms were stolen: "In order to deflect from MASSIVE BLUE STATE CORRUPTION & CRIME, they are at it again, illegally threatening Republicans... Other than cheating, this is how they won the Midterms - But we won’t let our Country go to hell!"
November 12, 2026 at 1:08 PM
Trump is Taking a page out of the 2020 playbook—the big question in my mind is if Republicans and R-leaning media join this campaign to challenge the outcome of the midterms. If they do, things could devolve for American democracy quite quickly…
Breaking down 2026 Mississippi voting by race and age shows that no segment of the White electorate was over 40% for the Democrat candidate Colom. There were huge shifts to Dems among White voters, and they are very important, but the baseline is so heavily Republican it is still an uphill climb.
November 12, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Breaking down 2026 Mississippi voting by race and age shows that no segment of the White electorate was over 40% for the Democrat candidate Colom. There were huge shifts to Dems among White voters, and they are very important, but the baseline is so heavily Republican it is still an uphill climb.
For Democrats, Economic Populism Is Cutting Through Party Divides
Moderate Democrats and progressives have long feuded over who should drive their party’s economic agenda. But many newly elected members say they share the same big goals
Moderate Democrats and progressives have long feuded over who should drive their party’s economic agenda. But many newly elected members say they share the same big goals
Democrats Unite on Economic Populism After Midterm Victories (Gift Article)
Moderate Democrats and progressives have long feuded over who should drive their party’s economic agenda. But many newly elected members say they share the same big goals.
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2026 at 8:43 PM
For Democrats, Economic Populism Is Cutting Through Party Divides
Moderate Democrats and progressives have long feuded over who should drive their party’s economic agenda. But many newly elected members say they share the same big goals
Moderate Democrats and progressives have long feuded over who should drive their party’s economic agenda. But many newly elected members say they share the same big goals
If Democrats are not careful they’ll draw exactly the wrong message from this midterm election. There were not many switchers. There were many more voters who were opting in. You do not get national election turnout rates among Black voters unless you’re bringing low-propensity Black voters along.
November 12, 2026 at 1:25 PM
If Democrats are not careful they’ll draw exactly the wrong message from this midterm election. There were not many switchers. There were many more voters who were opting in. You do not get national election turnout rates among Black voters unless you’re bringing low-propensity Black voters along.
From Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain to Paul LePage: A Study in the Decline of the Quality of Maine Republicans
November 12, 2026 at 10:58 PM
From Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain to Paul LePage: A Study in the Decline of the Quality of Maine Republicans
Reposted by James M. Thomas
Outlook is down.
The Democrats: already delivering results!
The Democrats: already delivering results!
November 12, 2026 at 8:08 PM
Outlook is down.
The Democrats: already delivering results!
The Democrats: already delivering results!
And here's the thing, one of the big lessons learned from the midterms that I haven't seen discussed enough: How critical the base is for locking down persuadables and independents.
November 12, 2026 at 4:01 PM
And here's the thing, one of the big lessons learned from the midterms that I haven't seen discussed enough: How critical the base is for locking down persuadables and independents.