War inflation hits German recovery
5 months ago
Germany's Bundesbank warned that price rises from the Middle East war were eroding Germany's economic recovery, risking stalled growth and higher inflation.
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Independent estimates warn the Iran War has cost $72B so far — nearly triple what Trump's DoD has admitted.
That's over $1 billion per day.
People don't want this. They want a living wage. They want healthcare. They want affordable housing. They want their basic needs met.
That's over $1 billion per day.
People don't want this. They want a living wage. They want healthcare. They want affordable housing. They want their basic needs met.
May 6, 2026 at 4:31 PM
Independent estimates warn the Iran War has cost $72B so far — nearly triple what Trump's DoD has admitted.
That's over $1 billion per day.
People don't want this. They want a living wage. They want healthcare. They want affordable housing. They want their basic needs met.
That's over $1 billion per day.
People don't want this. They want a living wage. They want healthcare. They want affordable housing. They want their basic needs met.
Reposted by Daniel W. Drezner, James Cameron, Jacob T. Levy
None of the Iran War's stated strategic objectives have been achieved. Highly repressive regime still in Tehran, nuclear program still intact, missiles & drones still launching. And US now suddenly pausing effort to re-open Hormuz-- a problem that did not exist before the war. It's mind-boggling.
May 6, 2026 at 12:28 PM
None of the Iran War's stated strategic objectives have been achieved. Highly repressive regime still in Tehran, nuclear program still intact, missiles & drones still launching. And US now suddenly pausing effort to re-open Hormuz-- a problem that did not exist before the war. It's mind-boggling.
A gallon of gas is now 50% more expensive than when Trump started his Iran War. In the war's first month, the 100 biggest oil and gas companies brought in an extra $30 million per HOUR in windfall profits. Trump's Big Oil donors come out on top while the world suffers.
May 5, 2026 at 8:31 PM
A gallon of gas is now 50% more expensive than when Trump started his Iran War. In the war's first month, the 100 biggest oil and gas companies brought in an extra $30 million per HOUR in windfall profits. Trump's Big Oil donors come out on top while the world suffers.
Reposted by David Darmofal, Michael D. McDonald
(Reuters) - U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer ..
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
May 5, 2026 at 11:12 AM
(Reuters) - U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer ..
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Remember my four-phase framework for the economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War?
This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I - II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into a broader inflationary process.
#economy #markets @financialtimes.com
This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I - II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into a broader inflationary process.
#economy #markets @financialtimes.com
May 5, 2026 at 10:13 AM
Remember my four-phase framework for the economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War?
This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I - II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into a broader inflationary process.
#economy #markets @financialtimes.com
This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I - II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into a broader inflationary process.
#economy #markets @financialtimes.com
More on the misguided policies of the Trump administration ... open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Trump Is Losing a Second War
The Iran debacle is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels
open.substack.com
May 5, 2026 at 3:25 PM
More on the misguided policies of the Trump administration ... open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
"International Spillover Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Economic Growth" is available at the Finance Research Letters doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2026.... Working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.480...
May 6, 2026 at 2:30 AM
"International Spillover Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Economic Growth" is available at the Finance Research Letters doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2026.... Working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.480...
Trump losing the other war too: open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Trump Is Losing a Second War
The Iran debacle is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels
open.substack.com
May 6, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Trump losing the other war too: open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
by Ian Bremmer
us announces “project freedom" and sends destroyers into the strait. iran responds with missiles and drones.
that’s not a misunderstanding, that’s strategy.
@gzeromedia.com
that’s not a misunderstanding, that’s strategy.
@gzeromedia.com
Iran tensions rising again: Is the ceasefire about to collapse? | ask ian
YouTube video by GZERO Media
youtu.be
May 5, 2026 at 5:52 PM
us announces “project freedom" and sends destroyers into the strait. iran responds with missiles and drones.
that’s not a misunderstanding, that’s strategy.
@gzeromedia.com
that’s not a misunderstanding, that’s strategy.
@gzeromedia.com
"Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices" is available at Energy Economics: doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.202...
May 6, 2026 at 5:00 AM
"Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices" is available at Energy Economics: doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.202...
Last year @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social noted the relative strength of household finances and predicted the UK economy might outperform expectations as a result.
Seems he was right - but of course Trump's war means we may not feel the benefits for long.
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
Seems he was right - but of course Trump's war means we may not feel the benefits for long.
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
Economy is holding up in face of energy shock — what’s going on?
The UK is proving surprisingly resilient as the effects of the Iran war go through the global economy, but beware the second half of the year
www.thetimes.com
May 6, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Last year @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social noted the relative strength of household finances and predicted the UK economy might outperform expectations as a result.
Seems he was right - but of course Trump's war means we may not feel the benefits for long.
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
Seems he was right - but of course Trump's war means we may not feel the benefits for long.
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
This paper published in International Finance shows that bilateral currency crises can have a significant impact on international trade and welfare costs. doi.org/10.1111/infi.12385
May 6, 2026 at 11:00 AM
This paper published in International Finance shows that bilateral currency crises can have a significant impact on international trade and welfare costs. doi.org/10.1111/infi.12385
by Stephen M. Walt Reposted by Daniela Schwarzer
Schrodinger’s foreign policy: the Trump administration says the US is simultaneously at war/not at war with Iran, Iran is a mortal threat/utterly vanquished, and the Strait of Hormuz is both open and closed.
Got it?
Got it?
May 5, 2026 at 8:59 PM
Schrodinger’s foreign policy: the Trump administration says the US is simultaneously at war/not at war with Iran, Iran is a mortal threat/utterly vanquished, and the Strait of Hormuz is both open and closed.
Got it?
Got it?
Thanks, Gulf War III
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Column | Why it’s an especially good time to buy an electric car
Gas prices are expected to remain high because of the Iran war, increasing the cost advantages of switching to electric vehicles over gas-powered cars.
www.washingtonpost.com
May 5, 2026 at 11:38 AM
Thanks, Gulf War III
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...