Despite the great potential of brGDGTs for paleotemperature reconstructions, the impacts of non-thermal factors, such as soil input, changes in water-column structure, water chemistry, and bacterial communities, and seasonal bias should be carefully evaluated prior to the quantitative application of...

Antarctica’s riskiest glacier is a disaster in slow motion, a polar scientist writes. But in a rare bit of good news, the worst-case scenario may be off the table.

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Unlike computationally expensive numerical ice models that solve complex physical equations, statistical emulators mimic the behaviour of physics-based simulators while remaining computationally efficient50,51. Instead of exactly solving the equations, they learn system behaviour from a comparatively small training set and predict simulation outputs for new scenarios. A robust emulator enables rapid sensitivity analysis, parameter calibration, and derivation of confidence/credible intervals (CIs) with little loss of accuracy50. Training data from numerical models We use ISMIP6-23005,6,7,22,27,52,53,54,55 to prescribe Antarctic SLR contributions over 2015–2100. ISMIP6 provides a framework for quantifying diverse ice-sheet model predictions of AIS evolution under common forcing protocols derived from CMIP5 and CMIP6 AOGCMs6,27. Participating models need only simulate ice shelves and grounding-line evolution, with minimal constraints on other choices27, and thus span the diversity of current ice-sheet modelling capabilities. Together with the systematic experimental design and groups submitting multiple configurations to test individual features, ISMIP6 provides a suitable basis for our emulator5,6. In total, 16 groups with 12 numerical models participated in ISMIP6-2300, groups were encouraged to submit multiple configurations spanning different ice-model parameter combinations, yielding 43 submissions. We excluded IMAU_UFEMISM2 and IMAU_UFEMISM3 as they differ minimally from other IMAU_UFEMISM variants, leaving 41 submissions. Combined with different climate forcing...

A comprehensive new study reveals the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) experienced unexpected mass gain between 2021-2023, temporarily reversing a two-decade trend of accelerating ice loss that had been contributing...

Hi Ronja and Emily, thank you for agreeing to doing this interview. Could you tell us briefly about your background and how you came to research your field? Emily: I have an environmental science/phys...

Understanding past Antarctic ice sheet behaviour relies on oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O) measured in deep-sea fossils. Traditionally, large Oligocene δ¹⁸O

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Turquet’s octopus, which is widespread around Antarctica, has a lot to tell scientists about West Antarctica's imminent ice sheet collapse.

Scientists have uncovered why Antarctica became engulfed by ice millions of years before the Arctic.

Scientists say they have drilled deeper than ever beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, peering back millions of years to reveal signs it was once, at least

A colossal ice core sample drilled in Antarctica may contain the oldest, unbroken timeline of Earth's climate, stretching back more than a million years. Laid horizontally, the entire ice core's 2,800-meter (9,186-foot) length could extend across San Francisco's Golden Gate...

The ice that now covers West Antarctica was not there 3.6 million years ago, after a massive collapse of the ice sheet during a warming period. Due to its thick, vast ice sheet, Antarctica appears to be a single, continuous...

An ice sheet that sprawled across North America during the Last Interglacial period may have stuck around longer than we thought, and that could spell trouble for New York City as the climate warms. On Oct. 29, 2012, Superstorm Sandy...

Scientists have discovered a giant, fan-shaped structure that connects several well-known basins deep beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet — and it may have formed in the breakup of the ancient supercontinent Gondwana. The feature is the product of a tectonic process known as distributed rotational extension, in which Earth's crust deforms outward from a fixed, central point, like fingers spreading out on a human hand. The gaps between the "fingers" in East Antarctica are triangular basins that were previously described but not recorded as belonging to a single system, researchers reported in a new study. "Rotational extension is known from other tectonic settings, but recognizing a feature of this scale, hidden beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is quite remarkable," first author Egidio Armadillo, an associate professor and researcher in the Applied Geophysics Laboratory at the University of Genoa in Italy, told Live Science in an email. "If our interpretation is correct, this may be one of the largest and clearest examples of distributed rotational extension yet recognized in continental crust." The discovery began with the simple observation that many buried basins in East Antarctica seem to radiate from the same place. From there, Armadillo and his colleagues examined...

Since the 1990s, the pace of ice loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets has accelerated, contributing to the increase in global mean sea level rise1, with the ice sheets now representing almost a quarter of global sea level rise2. As ice losses from the ice sheets are predicted to further increase over the coming decades and centuries3, quantifying ice sheet mass balance – the rate of change in ice sheet mass – is thus critical to assess the ice sheets’ contribution to rising sea levels and the risks associated for coastal communities around the world4,5. The ice sheets also dominate uncertainties in future sea level rise, and high-end sea-level rise projections increase by a factor 2.6 by 2150 if ice sheet instability processes are included5. Maintaining the long-term observational record of ice sheet mass balance is a critical step towards improved ice sheet model skill6,7 and realistic projections of sea level rise8,9. Fluctuations in ice sheet mass are the results of ice dynamical, surface mass balance (SMB), and basal mass balance processes. While ice sheets gain mass primarily from snowfall accumulation, they lose mass through several processes, including solid ice discharge at the grounding line, melting at the...

The scale of the threat can scarcely be exaggerated.

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are on course for rapid retreat, even collapse, leading to multiple feet of sea level rise even if the world pulls off the miraculous and keeps global warming to...

A new study warns that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may need very little additional ocean warming to enter a lasting collapse that would eventually raise global sea levels by more than 4 meters, or about 13 feet. The finding comes from a modeling paper published in Communications Earth & Environment. The authors analyzed the last 800,000 years of Antarctic ice history and found that West Antarctica is highly sensitive to small temperature changes in the deep ocean near the ice sheet. The results require careful reading. The paper does not state that a 4-meter sea-level rise will happen over the next decade or even within this century. The warning focuses on a tipping point. Once a certain level of retreat begins, the ice sheet could keep shrinking for centuries or millennia, even if warming later slows down. This potential for irreversible loss is exactly why the study is drawing attention. The resulting rise in sea levels would arrive slowly by human standards, but the critical choice points could come much earlier. What The Study Found The study found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet can shift from a stable state to a long-term retreat when deep ocean temperatures near...

Fox-Kemper, B. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 1211–1362 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021). Shackleton, S. et al. Global ocean heat content in the Last Interglacial. Nat. Geosci. 13, 77–81 (2020). Dyer, B. et al. Sea-level trends across the Bahamas constrain peak last interglacial ice melt. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 118, e2026839118 (2021). Dumitru, O. A. et al. Last Interglacial global mean sea level from high-precision U-series ages of Bahamian fossil coral reefs. Quat. Sci. Rev. 318, 108287 (2023). Fürst, J. J. et al. The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 479–482 (2016). Weertman, J. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. J. Glaciol. 13, 3–11 (1974). Schoof, C. Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: steady states, stability, and hysteresis. J. Geophys. Res. 112, F03S28 (2007). Mercer, J. H. West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster. Nature 271, 321–325 (1978). Thomas, R. H., Sanderson, T. J. O. & Rose, K. E. Effect of climatic warming on the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 277, 355–358 (1979). Bamber, J. L., Riva, R. E. M., Vermeersen, B. L. A. & LeBrocq,...

For decades, pink granite boulders scattered across the volcanic peaks of the Hudson Mountains in West Antarctica have puzzled scientists. However, a study published in October 2025 may have finally solved the mystery surrounding their origin, linking the scattered boulders with a hidden, giant granite body - almost 100km across and nearly 7km thick - beneath Pine Island Glacier. The startling discovery was made by a team of researchers led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). Using a dating method known as U-Pb zircon geochronology, which measures the radioactive decay of elements locked inside microscopic crystals to give an accurate estimation of age, these researchers were able to work out the granite boulders formed roughly 175 million years ago, during the Jurassic Period. Where is the coldest place on Earth – the Arctic or Antarctica? 10 amazing Antarctic animals – including one with antifreeze blood While it may be entirely covered in ice today, during the Jurassic Period Antarctica was a temperate, ice-free landmass covered in habitable forests of conifers and ferns. The climate was cool but mild and supported several species of dinosaurs, including the 7m-long Cryolophosaurus, a distant relative of T.rex, and Glacialisaurus, a primitive, long-necked dinosaur (sauropodomorph)...