(My friend was not upset, he assumed I’d already guessed and meanwhile I had been avoiding making assumptions)
November 3, 2026 at 9:57 PM
(My friend was not upset, he assumed I’d already guessed and meanwhile I had been avoiding making assumptions)
I give all the modeling details, including assumptions, equations, and input data, in the full study PDF: kevinjkircher.com/wp-content/u...
So others can reproduce my results, or try out different assumptions or parameter settings, I make all data and code open source: github.com/kevinjkirche...
So others can reproduce my results, or try out different assumptions or parameter settings, I make all data and code open source: github.com/kevinjkirche...
kevinjkircher.com
November 3, 2026 at 12:47 PM
I give all the modeling details, including assumptions, equations, and input data, in the full study PDF: kevinjkircher.com/wp-content/u...
So others can reproduce my results, or try out different assumptions or parameter settings, I make all data and code open source: github.com/kevinjkirche...
So others can reproduce my results, or try out different assumptions or parameter settings, I make all data and code open source: github.com/kevinjkirche...
Richard argues that because the RFF modelers make assumptions about transmission costs, where I make assumptions about BAAJA's overall effectiveness at accelerating clean electricity generation, my results are not trustworthy. I disagree.
November 3, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Richard argues that because the RFF modelers make assumptions about transmission costs, where I make assumptions about BAAJA's overall effectiveness at accelerating clean electricity generation, my results are not trustworthy. I disagree.
hopefully animators are treated well, not gonna make assumptions yet
November 1, 2026 at 10:06 AM
hopefully animators are treated well, not gonna make assumptions yet
All energy modeling takes the form "If this, then that." It begins with assumptions (about equation structures and numerical parameter values), does math, and ends with conclusions. If the modelers don't specify their assumptions, there is literally know way to know if their conclusions are valid.
November 3, 2026 at 1:50 AM
All energy modeling takes the form "If this, then that." It begins with assumptions (about equation structures and numerical parameter values), does math, and ends with conclusions. If the modelers don't specify their assumptions, there is literally know way to know if their conclusions are valid.
You can talk about aggregation, you can talk about averaging, you can talk about whatever I do not think the methodology behind 2026 polling *can* be accurate. I think pollsters have kludged together reasonable guesses by fucking with demographic weights and making assumptions.
November 3, 2026 at 5:12 AM
You can talk about aggregation, you can talk about averaging, you can talk about whatever I do not think the methodology behind 2026 polling *can* be accurate. I think pollsters have kludged together reasonable guesses by fucking with demographic weights and making assumptions.
A lot of assumptions being made that had Liverpool got that penalty it would have meant a guaranteed point at least.
November 2, 2026 at 9:25 AM
A lot of assumptions being made that had Liverpool got that penalty it would have meant a guaranteed point at least.
This is the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions.
November 1, 2026 at 6:22 PM
This is the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions.
Being angry at Assumptions the Spiegel made up
October 30, 2026 at 6:50 AM
Being angry at Assumptions the Spiegel made up
I make assumptions based on my history of dealing with bigots.
October 31, 2026 at 4:12 PM
I make assumptions based on my history of dealing with bigots.
Contra assumptions, I point this out because I take it as a sign they’re a real human and this is a real crash out
November 2, 2026 at 1:20 AM
Contra assumptions, I point this out because I take it as a sign they’re a real human and this is a real crash out
I appreciate being able to experiment with brelly size portrayal without it being a big wild deal or something to make assumptions about thank you :^) 💖🙏
November 3, 2026 at 4:26 PM
I appreciate being able to experiment with brelly size portrayal without it being a big wild deal or something to make assumptions about thank you :^) 💖🙏
just because there’s some internal consistency here doesn’t change the fact that this guy and his underlying assumptions are insane and stupid
October 31, 2026 at 4:01 AM
just because there’s some internal consistency here doesn’t change the fact that this guy and his underlying assumptions are insane and stupid
I dunno, dude, I think you've just shown your whole ass out here. Very revealing comments about your underlying assumptions, in ways you perhaps did not intend.
November 3, 2026 at 12:52 PM
I dunno, dude, I think you've just shown your whole ass out here. Very revealing comments about your underlying assumptions, in ways you perhaps did not intend.
Florida election simulator based on live returns is now online!
Make assumptions about remaining turnout and party loyalty rates and see how that affects the likely outcome of statewide races.
Defaults will update live w/ actual ballots throughout the day.
www.gelliottmorris.com/i/223234792/...
Make assumptions about remaining turnout and party loyalty rates and see how that affects the likely outcome of statewide races.
Defaults will update live w/ actual ballots throughout the day.
www.gelliottmorris.com/i/223234792/...
November 3, 2026 at 4:36 PM
Florida election simulator based on live returns is now online!
Make assumptions about remaining turnout and party loyalty rates and see how that affects the likely outcome of statewide races.
Defaults will update live w/ actual ballots throughout the day.
www.gelliottmorris.com/i/223234792/...
Make assumptions about remaining turnout and party loyalty rates and see how that affects the likely outcome of statewide races.
Defaults will update live w/ actual ballots throughout the day.
www.gelliottmorris.com/i/223234792/...
If you are wondering why I haven't shared this publicly, it's because the actual analysis, including assumptions, calculations, sources etc, hasn't been shared publicly.
And I kind of feel like being anti-slop also means being pro transparency and pro evidence and pro community
And I kind of feel like being anti-slop also means being pro transparency and pro evidence and pro community
November 3, 2026 at 9:02 AM
If you are wondering why I haven't shared this publicly, it's because the actual analysis, including assumptions, calculations, sources etc, hasn't been shared publicly.
And I kind of feel like being anti-slop also means being pro transparency and pro evidence and pro community
And I kind of feel like being anti-slop also means being pro transparency and pro evidence and pro community
like I generally trend toward the anxious and today I feel...nothing? Like I won't allow myself to feel anything?
the last decade has just completely broken me in terms of making any sorts of positive assumptions about my fellow citizens or our institutions
the last decade has just completely broken me in terms of making any sorts of positive assumptions about my fellow citizens or our institutions
November 3, 2026 at 7:59 PM
like I generally trend toward the anxious and today I feel...nothing? Like I won't allow myself to feel anything?
the last decade has just completely broken me in terms of making any sorts of positive assumptions about my fellow citizens or our institutions
the last decade has just completely broken me in terms of making any sorts of positive assumptions about my fellow citizens or our institutions
I think both are tenuous assumptions at this point
October 30, 2026 at 1:23 AM
I think both are tenuous assumptions at this point
This race could help determine control of the Senate.
No victory laps.
No assumptions.
No staying home.
VOTE VOTE VOTE. #BlueWaveVoteToday
https://signalohio.org/election-day-november-2026-live-results-ohio-midterm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
No victory laps.
No assumptions.
No staying home.
VOTE VOTE VOTE. #BlueWaveVoteToday
https://signalohio.org/election-day-november-2026-live-results-ohio-midterm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
November 3, 2026 at 3:50 PM
This race could help determine control of the Senate.
No victory laps.
No assumptions.
No staying home.
VOTE VOTE VOTE. #BlueWaveVoteToday
https://signalohio.org/election-day-november-2026-live-results-ohio-midterm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
No victory laps.
No assumptions.
No staying home.
VOTE VOTE VOTE. #BlueWaveVoteToday
https://signalohio.org/election-day-november-2026-live-results-ohio-midterm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
"beleaguered" is such a fucking stance to take, though I'm not surprised. Oh they're tired? They're tired of people being upset they murdered a baby??? Imagine how easy it would have been NOT to murder a Black baby over baseless and clearly racist assumptions of shoplifting.
November 2, 2026 at 8:13 PM
"beleaguered" is such a fucking stance to take, though I'm not surprised. Oh they're tired? They're tired of people being upset they murdered a baby??? Imagine how easy it would have been NOT to murder a Black baby over baseless and clearly racist assumptions of shoplifting.
Old assumptions about intelligence largely ignored the complexity of a profession that requires players to develop faster in so many ways www.nytimes.com/athletic/769...
Football players are smarter than you think
Old assumptions about intelligence largely ignored the complexity of a profession that requires players to develop faster in so many ways
www.nytimes.com
November 2, 2026 at 5:14 AM
Old assumptions about intelligence largely ignored the complexity of a profession that requires players to develop faster in so many ways www.nytimes.com/athletic/769...
It’s funny how you get to middle age and have to take a hard look at some of the unexamined assumptions you’ve been carrying around all your life. Things like “the richest person in the world will have better things to do than make weird nazi Star Wars memes”
November 1, 2026 at 10:30 PM
It’s funny how you get to middle age and have to take a hard look at some of the unexamined assumptions you’ve been carrying around all your life. Things like “the richest person in the world will have better things to do than make weird nazi Star Wars memes”
Rex did this with Alice. He makes assumptions about them needing to be ‘protected’.
Grow up Rex and have some respect for adult women (& younger ones too). #TheArchers
Grow up Rex and have some respect for adult women (& younger ones too). #TheArchers
November 1, 2026 at 11:42 AM
Rex did this with Alice. He makes assumptions about them needing to be ‘protected’.
Grow up Rex and have some respect for adult women (& younger ones too). #TheArchers
Grow up Rex and have some respect for adult women (& younger ones too). #TheArchers
Way too much credit; rationalism as a modern movement is much more interested in coming up with justifications for the specific rationalist's assumptions than it is in actually examining those assumptions or the world.
They would be far better named "rationalizers" than rationalists.
They would be far better named "rationalizers" than rationalists.
October 30, 2026 at 4:31 AM
Way too much credit; rationalism as a modern movement is much more interested in coming up with justifications for the specific rationalist's assumptions than it is in actually examining those assumptions or the world.
They would be far better named "rationalizers" than rationalists.
They would be far better named "rationalizers" than rationalists.