It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
July 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: getting to right tissue, target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
July 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 2, 2025 at 4:59 PM
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 4, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Investors should note forecasters believe #ProbabilityOfSuccess across drug discovery will improve drastically (over 2x) versus existing success rates as AI-powered drugs go through the approval process
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
What do you think?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's an annotated #KaplanMeier curve to help investors know what information is being presented.
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
July 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Here's an annotated #KaplanMeier curve to help investors know what information is being presented.
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It covers #mPFS, 12 & 24-month survival, #HazardRatio, #atRisk.
These metrics give different views of a drug.
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
July 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Though it too has drawbacks
#DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate. First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
September 29, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate. First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Intellectual property #IP & probability of success #POS are unique to biotech valuations
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
October 7, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Intellectual property #IP & probability of success #POS are unique to biotech valuations
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors must embrace these facets of biotech if they want to be successful
Note that assumptions around both may differ
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
October 16, 2025 at 10:01 AM
It's important for investors to assess the clinical meaningfulness of a result
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A "positive" result sometimes isn't enough if it doesn't significantly change the treatment landscape. But this can be subjective
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Its important for investors in the #obesity space to understand how these drugs are being paid for. While commercial coverage is expanding, it varies by employer
Will this put a cap on the market opportunity?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Will this put a cap on the market opportunity?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
March 2, 2025 at 6:02 AM
Its important for investors in the #obesity space to understand how these drugs are being paid for. While commercial coverage is expanding, it varies by employer
Will this put a cap on the market opportunity?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Will this put a cap on the market opportunity?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
We seek to provide knowledge to biotech investors so you can make money in biotech stocks
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 1, 2026 at 1:02 PM
We seek to provide knowledge to biotech investors so you can make money in biotech stocks
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Take the free course. It focuses on the basics
What other topics should we cover?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Biotech investors take note: Blockbuster drugs drive #pharma.
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 6, 2024 at 1:29 AM
Biotech investors take note: Blockbuster drugs drive #pharma.
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
From 2011-2020, all blockbuster were profitable but no low selling drugs were
No immunology blockbusters in the time frame but there are now
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
July 4, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Incorporating Probability of Success (PoS) is a unique aspect of #biotech valuation investors must be aware of.
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
It tries to factor development risk into revenue and cost assumptions.
Here is a table of PoS values:
#learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus
The #obesity space is crowded. There are many drugs being developed by many companies using many MoAs
Here is a (non-exhaustive) landscape put together by @Stifel
Which MoAs will take a large share?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here is a (non-exhaustive) landscape put together by @Stifel
Which MoAs will take a large share?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 12, 2025 at 3:18 PM
The #obesity space is crowded. There are many drugs being developed by many companies using many MoAs
Here is a (non-exhaustive) landscape put together by @Stifel
Which MoAs will take a large share?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here is a (non-exhaustive) landscape put together by @Stifel
Which MoAs will take a large share?
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM
How much time do FDA expedited designations save?
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Accelerated approval and Breakthrough status save a statistically significant amount of time. But Fast track does not
Investors should keep this in mind
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
July 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Investors will often see ORR quoted or displayed for oncology clinical trial results for solid tumors
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Here's what the CRs/PRs/SDs mean at a high level
These are assessed on scans
I'm using RECIST v1.1 definitions
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors, remember that the FDA puts out a wealth of information about drug candidates ahead of a potential approval
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 1, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Investors, remember that the FDA puts out a wealth of information about drug candidates ahead of a potential approval
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
A serious investor MUST read these!
They are the ultimate arbiter for approval in the US
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #BiotechPrometheus
July 3, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Investors should look at fully diluted shares outstanding #FDSO when looking at the market cap of a company. Dilutive securities, including options, warrants, converts, etc, can have a meaningful impact on the actual market cap of a company
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #BiotechPrometheus
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
April 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Approved drugs can have a "black box" (aka boxed) warning, the highest safety-related warning that FDA can put on an approved drug
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Usually applied to multiple drugs in the same class it can hamper revenue potential if alternatives exist
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
When investors evaluate a company developing AAV gene therapies, it's helpful to check that the organ that needs to be treated is targeted by the specific AAV serotype that is being used #genetherapy
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
November 28, 2024 at 11:43 PM
When investors evaluate a company developing AAV gene therapies, it's helpful to check that the organ that needs to be treated is targeted by the specific AAV serotype that is being used #genetherapy
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should know that Mega blockbuster drugs are usually apparent in the first year
Avg time to key sales levels for top-20 drugs launched since 2014:
$1bn: 3yrs (n=20)
$5bn: 5.5yrs (n=15)
$10bn: 6.6yrs (n=5)
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Avg time to key sales levels for top-20 drugs launched since 2014:
$1bn: 3yrs (n=20)
$5bn: 5.5yrs (n=15)
$10bn: 6.6yrs (n=5)
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 24, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Investors should know that Mega blockbuster drugs are usually apparent in the first year
Avg time to key sales levels for top-20 drugs launched since 2014:
$1bn: 3yrs (n=20)
$5bn: 5.5yrs (n=15)
$10bn: 6.6yrs (n=5)
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Avg time to key sales levels for top-20 drugs launched since 2014:
$1bn: 3yrs (n=20)
$5bn: 5.5yrs (n=15)
$10bn: 6.6yrs (n=5)
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
January 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Product differentiation is more important than classical drug models indicate
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
First-in-class will retain larger share if later entrants are not differentiated while a differentiated drug will gain outsized share even if a later entrant
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
December 10, 2024 at 2:32 AM
Investors should take an unbiased view of data and not only listen to management. Ask yourself: Is the drug doing what it's supposed to do?
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Look for: target engagement, proof of mechanism, and proof of concept
#learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
November 4, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Pharma has varying levels of success developing drugs. That's a boon for biotech
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus
Here are the biopharma companies ranked by likelihood of first approval (LoA%) from 2006-2022
$AMGN, $NVO, #Eisai top the list
$GSK, #Astellas, $ABBV are at the bottom
#learnbiotechinvesting #BiotechPrometheus