#Cftc
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normeisen.bsky.social
BREAKING: @democracydefendersfund.org is demanding a CFTC investigation into anonymous traders who netted millions on suspiciously timed bets on US military actions—Iran ceasefire, Venezuela invasion & more

Alleged insider trading on war plans IS a national security threat

CFTC must act now - TN
April 10, 2026 at 7:12 PM
ronfilipkowski.bsky.social
Trump’s CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced today he will try to block states from regulating online prediction (gambling) markets. Wonder why?
February 17, 2026 at 6:41 PM
davidrlurie.com
The CFTC, which is supposed to police market abuses is now promoting them.
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Jul 8
On Trump's Iran war, CTFC Chairman Michael Selig claims that prediction markets are "an interesting hedging tool" that enable firms to "manage risk."

"Airlines and other businesses are able to manage their costs so the consumer doesn't pay for that," he adds.
July 8, 2026 at 1:51 PM
moreperfectunion.bsky.social
BREAKING: Kalshi is asking the CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform, which would let users gamble with borrowed funds.

www.cnbc.com/2026/09/22/k...
Kalshi asks CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform, letting users buy with borrowed funds
It's the latest move by the company as it and other event contract exchanges seek to gain greater participation by institutional traders.
www.cnbc.com
September 22, 2026 at 1:24 PM
molly.wiki
The CFTC, the US commodities regulator, has just sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for their efforts to "outlaw, regulate, or otherwise restrain" prediction markets like Kalshi.

www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pr...
April 2, 2026 at 5:09 PM
elizaorlins.bsky.social
This is so fucking dark.

Kalshi filed with the CFTC today asking for permission to let traders bet on margin, which means placing prediction market bets with borrowed money.
September 22, 2026 at 5:25 PM
molly.wiki
Quintenz is now officially out as nominee for CFTC Chair, per Politico
molly.wiki Molly White @molly.wiki · Sep 12
CFTC Chair nominee Brian Quintenz has published messages with the Winklevoss twins, accusing them of blackballing him with President Trump after he failed to immediately and enthusiastically champion their grievances.
A new chair for the CFTC has still not been confirmed with the Senate in recess, and the conflict over nominee Brian Quintenz is continuing. Setting aside the issues of questionable emails he sent to the current CFTC Commissioners over their regulation of prediction markets — while he has a conflict of interest as a shareholder and board member at Kalshi — I’ve also outlined in past issues how the once supportive Winklevosses turned against him for seemingly strategy-related differences [I90]. Their opposition has diverged from much of the rest of the crypto industry, which recently sent a supportive letter urging his confirmation [I91]. The reason for this divergence may have just become clear, as Quintenz himself published July messages from a group chat with the Winklevoss twins, who pointed him to a furious public letter they sent to the CFTC Inspector General in June after reaching a settlement with the agency [I86].20 “Please take a look and let me know your thoughts after you’ve read our 13-page letter,” wrote Tyler. “7 years of lawfare trophy hunting. It’s outrageous what they did to us.” Quintenz doesn’t really push back in the conversation, though he seems to try to delay the conversation until his confirmation, writing that their complaints “should be unequivocally left to a fully confirmed chair” but that he “will address this fully and fairly if and when I am confirmed.” Later, Tyler states he is “disappointed and surprised that you haven’t seen, heard, or read about our complaint yet. We spoke about this issue when you reached out for our endorsement in December... Cultural reform, which includes rectifying what happened to us, should be the highest priority.” He demands to know “how you plan to align with President Trump and the Administration’s mandate to end the lawfare and make amends for it.” (The Winklevosses have previously suggested that they be repaid 3× their legal costs by the SEC [I78].) Quintenz: Ok. Let's chat when you are free. I think we are getting wires crossed. There are charged issues here and I want us to be on the same page. Tyler Winklevoss: Yes. Look forward to speaking. But I gotta say, I'm disappointed and surprised that you haven't seen, heard, or read about our complaint yet. We spoke about this issue when you reached out for our endorsement in December and it was all over the press when we filed it. Our complaint raises serious questions and concerns about the culture of the agency that you are about to chair and its overall fitness on the eve of it being contemplated as a major regulator for the crypto industry. Cultural reform, which includes rectifying what happened to us, should be the highest priority. I'd like to understand your thoughts on this and how you plan to align... It seems that the Winklevosses hoped that Brian Quintenz would be their man on the inside at the CFTC and have now dropped their endorsements after he failed to immediately and enthusiastically champion their grievances. Along with the messages, Quintenz wrote that he was concerned that President Trump “might have been misled”. He continued, “I believe these texts make it clear what they were after from me, and what I refused to promise. It’s my understanding that after this exchange they contacted the President and asked that my confirmation be paused for reasons other than what is reflected in these texts.”
October 1, 2025 at 12:48 AM
djangowexler.bsky.social
-> and Kalshi said, "We're not a gambling den, we're a FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES MARKET, so we're regulated by the feds at the CFTC, so F off."

Guessing that no one at the gutted Trump CFTC would care to restrain them or even notice. And they were right!
August 5, 2026 at 8:34 PM
rbreich.bsky.social
Under Trump:

-An ExxonMobil lawyer runs DOJ's Environment division
-An Amazon executive runs OSHA
-A crypto and prediction markets lawyer runs the CFTC
-A private prison executive runs ICE

The list goes on...

The revolving door is spinning out of control.
July 7, 2026 at 5:45 PM
emptywheel.bsky.social
Trump withdraws CFTC nominee bc he won't agree to make the Winklevosses' regulatory problems go away.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Trump nominated Quintenz to lead the CFTC in February. A small agency that oversees derivatives markets, the CFTC is set to gain broader authority to regulate crypto under legislation that passed the House in July and is working its way through the Senate. Quintenz, a former Republican CFTC commissioner, had overseen crypto policy for Silicon Valley venture-capital giant Andreessen Horowitz. His nomination was welcomed by both the digital-asset industry and traditional financial firms. In July, just before a Senate Agriculture Committee vote on advancing Quintenz’s nomination, the Winklevoss brothers asked Trump to pause the nomination, the Journal has previously reported. The brothers, who co-founded the Gemini crypto exchange, are supporters of the president who have given millions of dollars to pro-Trump political groups. The committee canceled the vote and Tyler Winklevoss publicly criticized Quintenz as not aligned with Trump’s agenda. In September, Quintenz made a last-ditch bid to salvage his nomination by releasing private messages from Tyler Winklevoss in which the billionaire urged him to support Gemini’s complaint about a Biden-era CFTC investigation and lawsuit. Quintenz said at the time the brothers began working against his nomination after he declined to help them.
October 1, 2025 at 1:21 PM
dillo.media
opening severely leveraged position on this cftc decision
September 23, 2026 at 7:36 AM
volts.wtf
jesusfuckingchrist
Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson
A public report urges the CFTC to ban prediction market contracts on destructive wildfires, raising concerns over public safety and potential arson.
www.kptv.com
August 5, 2026 at 4:57 PM
schiff.senate.gov
We must address this insidious threat.

Last week, I led calls to the CFTC urging the agency to uphold the law and halt these contracts.

If the CFTC won’t act, Congress must.
www.cnbc.com/2026/02/24/s...
March 2, 2026 at 8:09 PM
followtheh.bsky.social
*US CFTC PROBES OIL TRADES MADE BEFORE TRUMP IRAN POLICY PIVOTS

hell yeah
April 15, 2026 at 4:53 PM
jenlucpiquant.bsky.social
Minnesota Becomes First State to Ban Prediction Markets, Feds Immediately Sue gizmodo.com/minnesota-be...
Minnesota Becomes First State to Ban Prediction Markets, Feds Immediately Sue
The CFTC has sued several states that have tried to regulate prediction markets at the local level.
gizmodo.com
May 19, 2026 at 9:23 PM
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
B of A DESK: “.. CFTC data on WTI shows net-longs at lows not seen since 2008.”
August 27, 2025 at 12:27 PM
schiff.senate.gov
The vast majority of prediction markets are indistinguishable from sports gambling.

Despite being offered in violation of state law and tribal sovereignty, the CFTC is greenlighting them.

@cortezmasto.senate.gov and I are demanding the CFTC reverse course. www.wired.com/story/senato...
Senators Urge Top Regulator to Stay Out of Prediction Market Lawsuits
As prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi battle regulators in court, Senate Democrats are urging the CFTC to avoid weighing in, escalating a broader fight over the burgeoning industry...
www.wired.com
February 19, 2026 at 3:37 PM
repmcgovern.bsky.social
Trump Jr. advises Polymarket.

The CFTC dropped their Polymarket probe last year without bringing charges.

I asked the CFTC Chairman, Michael Selig, did the White House ask for that?

He was “insulted” by my simple question. Guess what he didn’t do? Answer.
April 16, 2026 at 9:52 PM
normeisen.bsky.social
BREAKING: @democracydefendersfund.org joined bipartisan ethics lawyers urging the CFTC to ban event contracts tied to fed govt decisions

The risks are real: A servicemember used classified intel to bet on Maduro's capture & $2B has been wagered on the Iran War on Polymarket

The CFTC must ACT - TN
April 30, 2026 at 9:09 PM
forbes.com
The CFTC is examining firms that placed trades timed to a Trump social media post on March 23.
These Firms Made More Than $15 Million On Oil Trades Right Before Trump Iran War Announcement, Report Says
The CFTC is examining firms that placed trades timed to a Trump social media post on March 23.
www.forbes.com
May 20, 2026 at 1:35 PM
rickhasen.bsky.social
Congress in Dodd-Frank law gave a federal agency, the CFTC, the exclusive power to regulate certain derivatives or "swaps." The court concluded that it is likely that some of the transactions on these prediction markets would qualify as "swaps," and therefore only the CFTC not states, may regulate
July 28, 2026 at 12:00 AM
ryanlcooper.com
this is a new one, a Republican CFTC commissioner announced a job working for a crypto lobbying firm *before she even stepped down.* from @henryburke.bsky.social: prospect.org/power/2025-0...
The Blockchain Association Just Bought the CFTC
The revolving door isn’t just corrupting the CFTC—it may end the pretense of a Commission altogether.
prospect.org
May 22, 2025 at 2:20 PM
molly.wiki
also Trump's nominee for Chairman of the CFTC (the primary regulator for predictions markets) is on Kalshi's board
segyges.bsky.social SE Gyges @segyges.bsky.social · Sep 2
that's one way to deal with regulatory issues
molly.wiki Molly White @molly.wiki · Sep 2
Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to BOTH Kalshi and Polymarket, btw

(this is deeply weird for all of the many reasons having Don Jr. as an adviser is deeply weird, AND also because the companies are the two major competitors in the prediction markets space)
September 2, 2025 at 4:44 AM
moreperfectunion.bsky.social
People across the country, including multiple Senators, are urging the CFTC to crack down on Kalshi and Polymarket wildfire betting, saying that having markets gambling on wildfires could incentivize arson.
August 7, 2026 at 2:53 PM
brokentoys.social
have we considered having, you know

laws

regulations

anything really other than "limitless wealth extraction"
Screenshot of a post from More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) with a gold verified checkmark: BREAKING: Kalshi is asking the CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform, which would let users gamble with borrowed funds. 8:24 AM · Sep 22, 2026 · 3.9M Views
September 22, 2026 at 11:48 PM