#Confidenceintervals
#statstab #312 {presize} pkg: Understanding Precision-Based Sample Size Calculations

Thoughts: Do you care about effect sizes? Then precision-based planning is for you. Expect higher Ns!

#r #samplesize #precision #estimation #power #Confidenceintervals

library.virginia.edu/data/article...
Understanding Precision-Based Sample Size Calculations | UVA LibraryFederal Depository Library Program
library.virginia.edu
April 1, 2025 at 4:27 PM
'I am 95% sure it will happen... nevertheless there there is a 5% chance it will not'

Confidence intervals: because nothing in life is 100% guaranteed

📉📈

#StatsLife #statistics #ConfidenceIntervals
December 8, 2024 at 8:57 AM
#statstab #85 Demystifying Confidence Intervals

Thoughts: I like the visuals in this example. And the author recommends bootstrapped CIs which I like (for large datasets).

#dataviz #rstats #research #Confidenceintervals

towardsdatascience.com/demystifying...
Demystifying Confidence Intervals with Examples
Navigating through uncertainty in data for extracting global statistical insights
towardsdatascience.com
May 3, 2024 at 3:42 PM
#statstab #268 Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

Thoughts: A decent overview of CIs and how they can aid inference. Also a shoutout to the {esci} website. Great tools for teaching.

#confidenceintervals #estimation #effects

www.researchgate.net/publication/...
January 29, 2025 at 7:27 PM
#statstab #527 How to interpret “confidence intervals” in observational studies

Thoughts: A great example of a conversation that goes nowhere but is interesting to read

#debate #unhelpful #discussion #forum #confidenceintervals #observational #inference

discourse.datamethods.org/t/how-to-int...
How to interpret “confidence intervals” in observational studies
This question complements the one in the thread Random sampling versus random allocation/randomization- implications for p-value interpretation. Given that observational studies involve neither rando...
discourse.datamethods.org
May 7, 2026 at 5:27 PM
#ConfidenceIntervals
ChatGPT suggests this wording that avoids false statements about probability.
I am 95% confident that the true parameter is within this interval [because the method is 95% correct when it is applied correctly and all assumptions hold].
December 6, 2024 at 1:50 PM
#statstab #337 Confidence intervals and tests are two sides of the same research question

Thoughts: Comment describing the connection between NHST p-values/test and Confidence Intervals (CI).

#NHST #ConfidenceIntervals #pvalues #frequentist #estimation

doi.org/10.3389/fpsy...
Frontiers | Confidence intervals and tests are two sides of the same research question
A commentary on The new statistics: why and how by Cumming, G. (2014). The new statistics: why and how. Psychol. Sci. 25(1), 7-29. doi: 10.1177/0956797613504...
doi.org
May 6, 2025 at 4:45 PM
#statstab #421 Sample Size Planning for Statistical Power and Accuracy in Parameter Estimation

Thoughts: AIPE is based on controlling the width of the CI.
Sample size can be computed independent of effect size!

#samplesize #confidenceintervals #AIPE #power

www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Sample Size Planning for Statistical Power and Accuracy in Parameter Estimation | Annual Reviews
This review examines recent advances in sample size planning, not only from the perspective of an individual researcher, but also with regard to the goal of developing cumulative knowledge. Psychologi...
www.annualreviews.org
September 22, 2025 at 5:40 PM
#statstab #256 Rule of three (95%CI for no event)

Thoughts: Sometimes you have 0 recorded events, so how do you compute a Confidence Interval? Using the rule of 3!

#Confidenceintervals #clinical #effectsize #statistics

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of...
January 13, 2025 at 6:24 PM
#statstab #357 Uncertainty Estimation with Conformal Prediction

Thoughts: Haven't parsed this properly but maybe be an interesting discussion point. How best to quantify uncertainty?

#conformalprediction #bayesian #confidenceintervals #uncertainty

m-clark.github.io/posts/2025-0...
Uncertainty Estimation with Conformal Prediction – Michael Clark
More options for uncertainty estimation
m-clark.github.io
June 4, 2025 at 2:45 PM
In network #MetaAnalysis (NMA) sparse networks sometimes yield bizarrely wide #ConfidenceIntervals. The solution we discovered after trying many alternatives perhaps surprising: switch from random effects to fixed effect.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30253217/
GRADE approach to rate the certainty from a network meta-analysis: avoiding spurious judgments of imprecision in sparse networks - PubMed
When direct and indirect estimates of treatment effects are coherent, network meta-analysis (NMA) estimates should have increased precision (narrower confidence or credible intervals compared with relying on direct estimates alone), a benefit of NMA. We have, however, observed cases of sparse networ …
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
March 29, 2026 at 9:25 AM
#statstab #315 What fraction of repeat experiments will have an effect size within the 95% confidence interval of the first experiment?

Thoughts: CV is a great place to learn. We see the same answer as Cumming: 83%

#replicability #confidenceintervals

stats.stackexchange.com/questions/21...
What fraction of repeat experiments will have an effect size within the 95% confidence interval of the first experiment?
Let's stick to an ideal situation with random sampling, Gaussian populations, equal variances, no P-hacking, etc. Step 1. You run an experiment say comparing two sample means, and compute a 95%
stats.stackexchange.com
April 4, 2025 at 2:46 PM
#statstab #540 Measures of Central Tendency for an Asymmetric Distribution, and Confidence Intervals

Thoughts: Pseudomedian, Central Limit Theory, and more.

#CLT #pseudomedian #confidenceintervals #distributions #signedranktest

www.fharrell.com/post/aci/
Measures of Central Tendency for an Asymmetric Distribution, and Confidence Intervals – Statistical Thinking
There are three widely applicable measures of central tendency for general continuous distributions: the mean, median, and pseudomedian (the mode is useful for describing smooth theoretical distributi...
www.fharrell.com
May 28, 2026 at 6:16 PM
#statstab #46 Confidence intervals exclude nothing

Thoughts: Following the heated threads on CIs this wknd, I thought I'd share one of the first papers I know to show why a single CI can be problematic

#NHST #estimation #statistics #Confidenceintervals

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles...
Confidence intervals exclude nothing.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
March 11, 2024 at 5:04 PM
🧪 🛟 CPH Focus: Master confidence intervals; essential for precise estimation and informed decision-making. Get clear on calculations, interpretations, and practice questions here: www.broadlyepi.com/cph-focus/cp... #EpiSky #MedSky #Biostatistics #ConfidenceIntervals #CPH #PublicHealth
CPH Focus: Evidence-Based Approaches to Public Health: Biostatistics – Inferential Statistics: Confidence Intervals
ALT: An oil painting of the Great Falls of Snake River, with dry desert cliffs and desert shrubs surrounding a raging river with the tops of waterfalls being exposed and heavy cloud cover.
www.broadlyepi.com
June 3, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Causation vs correlation? Research. Science and data of causation and correlation. #science #research #data #causation #correlation #confidenceintervals #medicine #deathrates
February 18, 2026 at 10:35 PM
Vance's face here is pretty funny
"Are you ready for this, media?" -- Bondi turns to the press and credits Trump for saving "258 million lives"
April 30, 2025 at 5:14 PM