Wild counterfactual: if Democrats were in power during WW2
Rick Scott: "If Democrats were in power when Lincoln allowed Sherman to destroy the south, they would've impeached him. Or when Roosevelt destroyed the infrastructure of Germany, they would've impeached him. Or when Truman used an atomic bomb against bomb. These people are insane."
April 8, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Wild counterfactual: if Democrats were in power during WW2
Look, "if Obama did this" is a boring counterfactual, but the shit that scanned as "defiling the office" under Obama would blow your mind.
October 20, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Look, "if Obama did this" is a boring counterfactual, but the shit that scanned as "defiling the office" under Obama would blow your mind.
Counterfactual bullshit is this guy's job.
Hassett: "Inflation is going down at the microeconomic level by a million things we've done, like fix the avian flu so egg prices are down and make drug prices more affordable with TrumpRX. But at the macroeconomic level the driving force right now is the temporary increase in the price of gas."
May 11, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Counterfactual bullshit is this guy's job.
the implied counterfactual here is amusing. “oh no, what if the Democrat loses in Florida”
August 22, 2026 at 11:04 PM
the implied counterfactual here is amusing. “oh no, what if the Democrat loses in Florida”
You can't prove a counterfactual.
September 28, 2026 at 6:26 PM
You can't prove a counterfactual.
Very interesting counterfactual
The impeachment vote in Korea was a secret ballot. I think that if the US Senate voted that way, Trump would have been convicted after January 6.
Hey look, a country with a modicum of self-respect.
December 14, 2024 at 11:40 PM
Very interesting counterfactual
🚨New Preprint: We develop a novel task that probes counterfactual thinking without using counterfactual language, and that teases apart genuine counterfactual thinking from related forms of thinking. Using this task, we find that the ability for counterfactual thinking emerges around 5 years of age.
October 13, 2025 at 7:58 PM
🚨New Preprint: We develop a novel task that probes counterfactual thinking without using counterfactual language, and that teases apart genuine counterfactual thinking from related forms of thinking. Using this task, we find that the ability for counterfactual thinking emerges around 5 years of age.
Going to be weird when 2028 gives us the chance to live the Trump vs Bernie counterfactual from 2016.
Tonight an unbelievable **34,000 people** gathered for our Denver rally to take on billionaires and win our country back.
This was the largest political gathering in Denver since Obama in 2008.
Also bigger than the 2024 DNC.
And the largest ever rally in Bernie’s career (and obviously, mine too).
This was the largest political gathering in Denver since Obama in 2008.
Also bigger than the 2024 DNC.
And the largest ever rally in Bernie’s career (and obviously, mine too).
March 22, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Going to be weird when 2028 gives us the chance to live the Trump vs Bernie counterfactual from 2016.
I wonder about the counterfactual where the opposition really leaned into rebranding tariffs as "trade taxes".
October 5, 2026 at 1:04 AM
I wonder about the counterfactual where the opposition really leaned into rebranding tariffs as "trade taxes".
Third counterfactual: why do so many people think the Free Press is biased?
October 19, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Third counterfactual: why do so many people think the Free Press is biased?
Modern journalism's instinct/desire/strategy to lazily accept and pass on, without further interrogation, the nonsense counterfactual framing of whoever is acting in the worst faith, is a huge part of why we are here.
why is *every* newspaper/programme running with the headline "tariffs are paused" when they haven't been.
What's happened is that every country (except China) gets a flat rate of 10% for 90 days.
What's happened is that every country (except China) gets a flat rate of 10% for 90 days.
April 10, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Modern journalism's instinct/desire/strategy to lazily accept and pass on, without further interrogation, the nonsense counterfactual framing of whoever is acting in the worst faith, is a huge part of why we are here.
It's impossible, obviously, to run the counterfactual, but if they hadn't murdered USAID, the odds of this outbreak happening go way down.
During a Cabinet meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the U.S. response to the deadly Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, saying, “we cannot and will not allow any cases of Ebola to enter the United States.”
May 28, 2026 at 12:02 AM
It's impossible, obviously, to run the counterfactual, but if they hadn't murdered USAID, the odds of this outbreak happening go way down.
Almost 56 years ago. Imagine the counterfactual.
The last day on which a majority of the Supreme Court’s justices had been appointed by Democratic presidents was May 14, 1969.
One of the things we do in the legal academy is support our claims with facts.
One of the things we do in the legal academy is support our claims with facts.
April 2, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Almost 56 years ago. Imagine the counterfactual.
These arguments by the right are counterfactual and made in bad faith.
December 16, 2025 at 3:15 AM
These arguments by the right are counterfactual and made in bad faith.
This is a clear statement by CNN that a man who incited an insurrection against America 4 years ago and told 31,000 lies in his first term still has credibility
People should be fired for this sort of thing, as it's these journalistic atrocities—all *dangerously* counterfactual—driving readers away
People should be fired for this sort of thing, as it's these journalistic atrocities—all *dangerously* counterfactual—driving readers away
May 19, 2025 at 5:03 AM
This is a clear statement by CNN that a man who incited an insurrection against America 4 years ago and told 31,000 lies in his first term still has credibility
People should be fired for this sort of thing, as it's these journalistic atrocities—all *dangerously* counterfactual—driving readers away
People should be fired for this sort of thing, as it's these journalistic atrocities—all *dangerously* counterfactual—driving readers away
Can’t prove a counterfactual but I do sometimes wonder where we’d be if they had just stuck with “these fuckers are weird as hell” for like a few more weeks
October 13, 2025 at 12:36 AM
Can’t prove a counterfactual but I do sometimes wonder where we’d be if they had just stuck with “these fuckers are weird as hell” for like a few more weeks
Useless counterfactual but if the US had a parliamentary system, Trump would have been long since ejected from office.
May 12, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Useless counterfactual but if the US had a parliamentary system, Trump would have been long since ejected from office.
I think Bernie could have stopped Nazi tattoo man. We will obviously never know because it’s a counterfactual. But I think it speaks poorly of him that he actively refused to try.
April 30, 2026 at 3:16 PM
I think Bernie could have stopped Nazi tattoo man. We will obviously never know because it’s a counterfactual. But I think it speaks poorly of him that he actively refused to try.
Exactly. Remember to consider the counterfactual!
I get annoyed at the narrative that all the awareness and work on climate change hasn't done anything. Yes, global CO₂ emissions indeed continue to climb, but we don't know the counterfactual. When I was in grad school, we were on track for 5°C of warming. Now it's below 3°C. That's progress.
June 22, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Exactly. Remember to consider the counterfactual!
so the counterfactual here is that the Biden DoJ doesn’t block the JetBlue/Spirit merger, and while I think that’s an interesting counterfactual Rs are trying to treat it as “so everything is fine!” instead of as “so SpiritBlue fails instead and it’s a much larger problem!”
Man I am really uncomfortable with what appears to be a growing online populist push to turn Sprit Airlines’ collapse into some kind of political football. That feels like people reaching for things to be mad about.
May 3, 2026 at 9:02 PM
so the counterfactual here is that the Biden DoJ doesn’t block the JetBlue/Spirit merger, and while I think that’s an interesting counterfactual Rs are trying to treat it as “so everything is fine!” instead of as “so SpiritBlue fails instead and it’s a much larger problem!”
I have spent 20+ years talking to drivers who have counterfactual complaints about bike riders. My conclusions...
August 12, 2026 at 4:57 PM
I have spent 20+ years talking to drivers who have counterfactual complaints about bike riders. My conclusions...
Pathological…and counterfactual
July 16, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Pathological…and counterfactual
“They studied 51 populist presidents and prime ministers who were in power between 1900 and 2020 and found that after 15 years, GDP per capita was 10% lower when compared with a plausible nonpopulist counterfactual.”
The US economy has a new problem: Democracy is under siege www.cnn.com/2025/09/22/b...
The US economy has a new problem: Democracy is under siege | CNN Business
Some political scientists see a pattern that suggests American democracy is being undermined in real time. The stakes are massive for the US economy and the business world.
www.cnn.com
September 22, 2025 at 12:24 PM
“They studied 51 populist presidents and prime ministers who were in power between 1900 and 2020 and found that after 15 years, GDP per capita was 10% lower when compared with a plausible nonpopulist counterfactual.”
This is the right counterfactual ->
It is simply impossible to believe on this record that this would have been the lineup (or a stay issued at all) if the district court had found a racial gerrymander in a large blue state.
Breaking: Supreme Court on 6-3 Party Line Vote, Allows Texas to Use Its Re-redistricting Maps for 2026 Congressional Elections electionlawblog.org?p=153359
December 5, 2025 at 2:20 AM
This is the right counterfactual ->