The crypto market is bracing for a whirlwind week as major U.S. economic indicators take center stage. With Bitcoin and altcoins hovering near.

A busy week lies ahead in terms of economic events, even though Monday starts off slowly with no significant scheduled releases affecting the FX market. On Tuesday, the main focus will be on inflation data from both Canada and the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. will release the Empire state manufacturing index. On Wednesday, the U.K. will publish its inflation figures, while in the U.S., we'll see the release of both core PPI m/m and PPI m/m. Thursday brings Australia’s employment change and unemployment rate, while in the U.S., retail sales m/m and weekly unemployment claims will be released. Finally, on Friday, Japan will publish its National Core CPI y/y, and the U.S. will release preliminary figures for the UoM consumer sentiment and UoM inflation expectations indexes. In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.2%, compared to the previous 0.6%. Median CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0%, as is trimmed CPI y/y. Common CPI m/m is forecasted to edge up slightly to 2.6% from the prior 2.7%. This week’s inflation data will be closely watched, as it could influence market expectations ahead of the next BoC meeting. The key focus will be on core inflation. After falling to 3.0% in May, it will be important to see whether the trend continues or declines further in June. There are signs that inflationary pressures are easing as economic conditions cool, wage gains soften, and services inflation shows signs of moderation. Despite this, the BoC may hold off on a rate cut at the next meeting, partly due to the continued resilience of the labor market. However, if inflation data surprises to the downside, a July rate cut would be on the table. Wells Fargo analysts suggest that if core inflation prints at 2.8% or lower, it would strengthen the case for a July cut. If inflation remains sticky, markets are more likely to anticipate a cut in the autumn. In the U.S., the consensus for core CPI m/m is 0.3%, compared to the previous 0.1%. Headline CPI m/m is also expected at 0.3% vs. 0.1% prior, while CPI y/y is forecast to rise to 2.6% from 2.4%. Expectations are for inflation data to show an uptick, driven by recent price pressures in both goods and services. If this materializes, annualized core inflation over the past three and twelve months would rise to 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively, still well below the peaks of the recent years, but enough to potentially worry policymakers. Markets will be watching closely to determine whether this is merely a temporary rise or the beginning of renewed stickiness in core price pressures. In the U.K., the consensus is for CPI y/y to remain unchanged at 3.4%, with core CPI y/y also expected to hold steady at 3.5%. While food prices remain elevated and oil costs briefly spiked late last month, the broader picture suggests easing inflationary pressures, particularly within the services sector. Private sector wages are projected to have cooled to 4.8% in the three months to May, reinforcing expectations that the BoE will deliver a 25 bps rate cut at its next meeting in August. That said, unless inflation and wage growth slow more decisively or the economy weakens significantly, additional rate cuts are likely to proceed at a cautious, quarterly pace rather than in back-to-back moves, Wells Fargo analysts noted. Australia’s June labour force report is expected to show a rebound in job creation following May’s surprise dip. Employment fell by 2.5K last month, which was largely viewed as a correction after April’s sharp 87.6K gain, but analysts anticipate a return to growth, with forecasts generally ranging between a 20K and 30K increase. Westpac is forecasting a 30K rise, citing continued strength in the underlying trend. On a three-month average basis, employment growth is running at a healthy 2.3% y/y, consistent with the pace seen at the end of 2023. June's figures are expected to reflect this resilience, supported in part by a slight increase in labour force participation. While monthly figures remain volatile, the labour market continues to show signs of stability. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% in June, aligning with analyst consensus. In May, the drop in employment was offset by a similar decline in the labour force, which pushed the participation rate slightly lower to 67.0%, Westpac said. For June, a modest rebound in participation to 67.1% is anticipated. Combined with expected job gains, this should keep the unemployment rate unchanged. Overall, the labour market remains broadly stable, with the jobless rate hovering near levels seen consistently over recent months. In the U.S., the consensus for core retail sales m/m is a 0.3% increase, compared to the previous -0.3%. Headline retail sales m/m are expected to rise by 0.2%, following a sharp -0.9% decline in the prior month. The recent drop in consumer spending was concentrated in categories excluded from the control measure, which actually rose by 0.4%. This means the control measure may be presenting an overly optimistic picture, according to Wells Fargo analysts. Only about half of retailers reported higher sales, suggesting that tariffs could be starting to weigh on consumer behavior. Auto dealership sales, a key component of retail, have declined in four of the first five months of the year and May’s drop, in particular, significantly pulled overall sales lower. That said, there are early signs of a potential rebound in auto sales. Meanwhile, e-commerce continues to perform well, helping to offset weakness in other areas. Looking ahead, June retail sales are expected to be largely unchanged, with a modest 0.3% gain anticipated in the control measure. Consumers are still spending, but the pace of growth appears to be slowing. This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

It's going to be a light week for economic events, as is usually the case following the release of the U.S. non-farm employment change data. On Monday, the U.S. will publish the ISM services PMI, and on Tuesday, its trade balance data which typically doesn’t attract much attention but is worth watching given the current tariff-related tensions. On Wednesday, New Zealand will release its quarterly employment change and unemployment rate and later in the day we'll have the highlight of the week—the FOMC monetary policy announcement. The Bank of England’s monetary policy decision will follow up on Thursday, while the U.S. will get the unemployment claims report. The following day, Canada will release its own employment change and unemployment rate figures. Remarks from several FOMC members are expected throughout the week. In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM services PMI is 50.2, down from the prior 50.8. The outlook for the services sector is not very promising but compared to the manufacturing sector, it is still expected to remain in expansionary territory for now. This release will also provide insight into how tariffs are being absorbed. Last month’s drop was one of the largest in nine months, driven by a significant decline in the employment component and a slowdown in both domestic and international orders, according to analysts from Wells Fargo. Although business activity remained relatively resilient, the overall picture is less encouraging, and further deterioration in business confidence could weigh heavily on the sector. Regional Fed surveys have echoed signs of weakening service activity, while ongoing uncertainty around investment and supply chains continues to drag on growth momentum. At this week's FOMC meeting, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold despite the latest economic data, particularly the soft Q1 GDP figures. The labor market remains stable, and strong income growth continues to support consumer spending. However, analysts from Wells Fargo point out several cautionary signals: equity markets have declined, credit spreads have widened, and both consumer and business sentiment reflect growing concerns, especially regarding rising input costs and hesitation around investment. The Fed will likely adopt a “wait and see” stance as the Committee evaluates the current economic landscape. There is no doubt that tariffs complicate the Fed’s mandate, exerting pressure on both inflation and employment. Traders will closely watch for clues on how policymakers are balancing these risks. Wells Fargo analysts expect the Fed to begin lowering rates once tariffs start materially impacting hard economic data. They anticipate the first 25 bps rate cut to come in June, though they note this outlook could shift if trade tensions ease through carve-outs or new deals. At this week's meeting, the BoE is expected to deliver a 25 bps rate cut, lowering the policy rate to 4.25%. This move would continue the easing cycle of quarterly cuts that began in mid-2024. Overall, U.K. data suggest some resilience in economic activity, and the Bank is expected to proceed cautiously. Traders will closely watch the updated Monetary Policy Report for insights into whether recent developments, such as the introduction of U.S. tariffs, are factored into the BoE’s outlook. A significantly weaker growth forecast or inflation projections well below the 2% target would likely be required to shift expectations toward a faster pace of rate cuts. In Canada, the consensus for the employment change is 24.5K, compared to the prior -32.6K, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.7%. Canadian labor market conditions have started to show signs of strain following the imposition of U.S. tariffs in March. Employment declined, and a second consecutive monthly drop in the participation rate was recorded, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.7%. Although the labor market hasn’t collapsed—unemployment remains below the 6.9% peak recorded late last year—ongoing softness in hiring demand, as indicated by declining job vacancies, suggests further deterioration ahead. RBC analysts expect the unemployment rate to gradually rise through the second half of 2025. This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: * Monday: Australia/Japan/EU/UK/US Flash PMIs. * Tuesday: German IFO, US Consumer Confidence. * Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, UK CPI, US Durable Goods Orders, BoC Minutes. * Thursday: US Final Q4 GDP, US Jobless Claims. * Friday: Tokyo CPI, BoJ Summary of Opinions, UK Retail Sales, French CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final). Monday Monday is the Flash PMIs Day for the Eurozone, the UK and the US. These are generally market moving releases and they might influence the markets expectations for interest rates. US PMIs will get special attention as they triggered the growth scare last month. * Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 expected vs. 47.6 prior. * Eurozone Services PMI: 51.0 expected vs. 50.6 prior. * UK Manufacturing PMI: 46.4 expected vs. 46.9 prior. * UK Services PMI: 50.9 expected vs. 51.0 prior. * US Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 expected vs. 52.7 prior. * US Services PMI: 50.8 expected vs. 51.0 prior. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 94.0 vs. 98.3 prior. The last report showed Consumer Confidence posting the largest decline since August 2021. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board said: “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly.” “Views of current labour market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high”. Guichard added: “Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs.” Wednesday The Australian Monthly CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs. 2.5% prior. As a reminder, the RBA cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected at the last meeting bringing the Cash Rate to 4.10% but it was accompanied by a more hawkish than expected guidance. We got a weak Australian Employment report last week which weighed on the AUD although it didn’t change the market’s pricing much as the focus remains on more inflation progress. The UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.9% vs. 3.0% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.5% vs. -0.1% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs. 3.7% prior, while Services CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.9% vs. 5.0% prior. As a reminder, the BoE held interest rates steady at the recent policy decision with a 8-1 vote split and the overall message was that the central bank is more focused on inflation progress given the high wage growth and sticky inflation. The market is now seeing 44 bps of easing by year-end compared to 53 bps before the BoE decision. Thursday The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to hover around cycle highs. This week Initial Claims are expected at 225K vs. 223K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1896K vs. 1892K prior. Friday The Tokyo Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.2% vs. 2.2% prior. As a reminder, the BoJ held interest rates steady last week and didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance. The BoJ’s statement acknowledged heightened uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy though, adding a new reference to the "evolving situation regarding trade." This suggests that policymakers are closely monitoring Trump’s tariff policies, with global trade developments remaining a key risk factor for Japan's outlook. The US PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs. 2.5% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior. The Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs. 2.6% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior. Forecasters can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, so the market already knows what to expect. Therefore, unless we see a deviation from the expected numbers, it shouldn’t affect the current market’s pricing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

As traders approach another pivotal day for financial markets on Friday, April 18, 2025, a series of crucial economic data releases and a key Federal Reserve speech are expected to sway market dynamics. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will release its weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, offering insights into speculative positions across various markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak, potentially providing clues about future monetary policy directions. Major Economic Events to Watch Other Important Economic Events to Watch • 11:00 AM ET - FOMC Member Daly Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly’s public engagement may offer subtle hints about future monetary policy. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC S&P 500 speculative positions (Previous:-28.7K): Weekly report on speculative positions in S&P 500 futures. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative positions (Previous:24.3K): Data on speculative positions in Nasdaq 100 futures. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Gold speculative positions (Previous:200.7K): Report on speculative positions in gold futures markets. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Crude Oil speculative positions (Previous:139.6K): Information on speculative positions in crude oil futures. Other Economic Events to Watch • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions (Previous:1.5K): Data on speculative positions in aluminum futures. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Copper speculative positions (Previous:24.2K): Report on speculative positions in copper futures markets. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Silver speculative positions (Previous:46.5K): Information on speculative positions in silver futures. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Natural Gas speculative positions (Previous:-109.2K): Data on speculative positions in natural gas futures. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Wheat speculative positions (Previous:-91.9K): Report on speculative positions in wheat futures markets. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Corn speculative positions (Previous:172.9K): Information on speculative positions in corn futures. • 3:30 PM ET - CFTC Soybeans speculative positions (Previous:-16.8K): Data on speculative positions in soybean futures. For further information and the latest updates, please refer to our Economic Calendar, here. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.