And there it is, Dems seemed to have FLIPPED PA-HD12(R+18)
August 19, 2026 at 2:19 AM
And there it is, Dems seemed to have FLIPPED PA-HD12(R+18)
AP has officially called PA HD12 for Brandon Dukes!
August 20, 2026 at 8:16 PM
AP has officially called PA HD12 for Brandon Dukes!
Final results in the Alabama #HD12 (Trump+78) special election:
Cindy Myrex (R)- 87.1%
Matthew Glover (D)- 12.9%
Four point overperformance for the Dems in an election with a STAGGERINGLY HIGH TURNOUT OF...
3.4%
Cindy Myrex (R)- 87.1%
Matthew Glover (D)- 12.9%
Four point overperformance for the Dems in an election with a STAGGERINGLY HIGH TURNOUT OF...
3.4%
October 29, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Final results in the Alabama #HD12 (Trump+78) special election:
Cindy Myrex (R)- 87.1%
Matthew Glover (D)- 12.9%
Four point overperformance for the Dems in an election with a STAGGERINGLY HIGH TURNOUT OF...
3.4%
Cindy Myrex (R)- 87.1%
Matthew Glover (D)- 12.9%
Four point overperformance for the Dems in an election with a STAGGERINGLY HIGH TURNOUT OF...
3.4%
3 precincts left in the Pennsylvania #HD12 (Trump+18) special election and the Republicans are up by just 20 VOTES:
Scott Timko (R)- 50.06%
Brandon Dukes (D)- 49.94%
Scott Timko (R)- 50.06%
Brandon Dukes (D)- 49.94%
August 19, 2026 at 1:46 AM
3 precincts left in the Pennsylvania #HD12 (Trump+18) special election and the Republicans are up by just 20 VOTES:
Scott Timko (R)- 50.06%
Brandon Dukes (D)- 49.94%
Scott Timko (R)- 50.06%
Brandon Dukes (D)- 49.94%
God, I see what you’ve done for PA-HD12 and I want that for me
August 19, 2026 at 2:29 AM
God, I see what you’ve done for PA-HD12 and I want that for me
Some results from the special in Pennsylvania HD12(R+18)
August 19, 2026 at 1:21 AM
Some results from the special in Pennsylvania HD12(R+18)
We had our final special state legislative election of the year tonight in Pennsylvania's #HD12, a Trump+18 district covering the suburban Cranberry Township area.
Democrat Brandon Dukes flipped it blue tonight, defeating Republican Scott Timko by 88 votes!
Democrat Brandon Dukes flipped it blue tonight, defeating Republican Scott Timko by 88 votes!
August 19, 2026 at 2:46 AM
We had our final special state legislative election of the year tonight in Pennsylvania's #HD12, a Trump+18 district covering the suburban Cranberry Township area.
Democrat Brandon Dukes flipped it blue tonight, defeating Republican Scott Timko by 88 votes!
Democrat Brandon Dukes flipped it blue tonight, defeating Republican Scott Timko by 88 votes!
Don't have official numbers yet, but so far the Democrat in Pennsylvania's #HD12 (Southern Butler County) is outperforming the 2024 numbers by around 15-20 points.
It's a Trump+18 district, so this one looks like it'll come down to the wire
It's a Trump+18 district, so this one looks like it'll come down to the wire
August 19, 2026 at 1:16 AM
Don't have official numbers yet, but so far the Democrat in Pennsylvania's #HD12 (Southern Butler County) is outperforming the 2024 numbers by around 15-20 points.
It's a Trump+18 district, so this one looks like it'll come down to the wire
It's a Trump+18 district, so this one looks like it'll come down to the wire
We'll have a special election in Pennsylvania's #HD12 in August, a Trump+18 district north of Pittsburgh that did back Governor Shapiro in 2022 in his landslide statewide win.
Given how much Pennsylvania Democrats have overperformed in specials, this will be one to watch.
Given how much Pennsylvania Democrats have overperformed in specials, this will be one to watch.
April 24, 2026 at 6:35 PM
We'll have a special election in Pennsylvania's #HD12 in August, a Trump+18 district north of Pittsburgh that did back Governor Shapiro in 2022 in his landslide statewide win.
Given how much Pennsylvania Democrats have overperformed in specials, this will be one to watch.
Given how much Pennsylvania Democrats have overperformed in specials, this will be one to watch.
I forgot to mention this when the Pennsylvania #HD12 special happened, but that was the last special state legislative election for the year.
That means the final average overperformance from 2024 for Democrats in state legislative special elections this year was...
D+10.5!
That means the final average overperformance from 2024 for Democrats in state legislative special elections this year was...
D+10.5!
August 29, 2026 at 6:47 PM
I forgot to mention this when the Pennsylvania #HD12 special happened, but that was the last special state legislative election for the year.
That means the final average overperformance from 2024 for Democrats in state legislative special elections this year was...
D+10.5!
That means the final average overperformance from 2024 for Democrats in state legislative special elections this year was...
D+10.5!
Butler County hasn't updated the overall vote total, but it looks like the Democrats will take an 80-vote district-wide lead in #HD12 (Trump+18) once the latest precinct is counted.
Trump+24 and Trump+15 precincts are the two left to count
Trump+24 and Trump+15 precincts are the two left to count
August 19, 2026 at 1:54 AM
Butler County hasn't updated the overall vote total, but it looks like the Democrats will take an 80-vote district-wide lead in #HD12 (Trump+18) once the latest precinct is counted.
Trump+24 and Trump+15 precincts are the two left to count
Trump+24 and Trump+15 precincts are the two left to count
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November 18, 2024 at 11:09 PM
Retracted that race call for PA #HD12 btw. There are still precincts out. Six to be precise. They appear to all be from Cranberry Township, which could tilt the margin in favor of the Democrats
August 19, 2026 at 1:38 AM
Retracted that race call for PA #HD12 btw. There are still precincts out. Six to be precise. They appear to all be from Cranberry Township, which could tilt the margin in favor of the Democrats
So far it looks like the only centrist wins in the Illinois State Legislature have come from #SD06 and #HD12 (both in the heavily rich/moderate areas north of downtown).
Even in SD-06, the incumbent (who's served since the 90s) is only winning by 10 against a progressive organizer.
Even in SD-06, the incumbent (who's served since the 90s) is only winning by 10 against a progressive organizer.
March 18, 2026 at 1:43 AM
We just calculated the 2024 presidential numbers for Alabama's #HD12, which is hosting a special tomorrow. It went for Trump 89-10!
What's amazing is that Dems have fielded a candidate at all: Matthew Glover, a manager at a poultry plant & former local elected official.
Our complete Big Board:
What's amazing is that Dems have fielded a candidate at all: Matthew Glover, a manager at a poultry plant & former local elected official.
Our complete Big Board:
The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle
docs.google.com
October 27, 2025 at 4:26 PM
We just calculated the 2024 presidential numbers for Alabama's #HD12, which is hosting a special tomorrow. It went for Trump 89-10!
What's amazing is that Dems have fielded a candidate at all: Matthew Glover, a manager at a poultry plant & former local elected official.
Our complete Big Board:
What's amazing is that Dems have fielded a candidate at all: Matthew Glover, a manager at a poultry plant & former local elected official.
Our complete Big Board:
As a former resident of HD12, I am choking up big time tonight.
Reminder this is the same seat Daryl Metcalfe had a stranglehold on for 22 years. This was not a special election fluke performance. It was the result of YEARS and YEARS of organizing.
All the love to my old friends in Butler County!
Reminder this is the same seat Daryl Metcalfe had a stranglehold on for 22 years. This was not a special election fluke performance. It was the result of YEARS and YEARS of organizing.
All the love to my old friends in Butler County!
August 19, 2026 at 2:29 AM
As a former resident of HD12, I am choking up big time tonight.
Reminder this is the same seat Daryl Metcalfe had a stranglehold on for 22 years. This was not a special election fluke performance. It was the result of YEARS and YEARS of organizing.
All the love to my old friends in Butler County!
Reminder this is the same seat Daryl Metcalfe had a stranglehold on for 22 years. This was not a special election fluke performance. It was the result of YEARS and YEARS of organizing.
All the love to my old friends in Butler County!
We have a special election tomorrow in Pennsylvania's #HD12, a Trump+18 seat covering southern Butler County north of Pittsburgh.
Pennsylvania Democrats have outperformed their 2024 numbers by an average of 22 points this year, so a flip is not out of the question.
Pennsylvania Democrats have outperformed their 2024 numbers by an average of 22 points this year, so a flip is not out of the question.
August 17, 2026 at 6:39 PM
We have a special election tomorrow in Pennsylvania's #HD12, a Trump+18 seat covering southern Butler County north of Pittsburgh.
Pennsylvania Democrats have outperformed their 2024 numbers by an average of 22 points this year, so a flip is not out of the question.
Pennsylvania Democrats have outperformed their 2024 numbers by an average of 22 points this year, so a flip is not out of the question.
🗳️ JOLPOL endorses these pro- #Justice, #Opportunity, & #Liberty candidates for 11/3 General #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #Elections2026:
🗳️ #Delaware: State #House: #HD12: Rep. Krista Griffith | #HD14: Rep. Claire Snyder-Hall | #HD16: Pamela Salaam! #GOTV #VOTE #DEpol #DElegis #DElege ⚖️
🗳️ #Delaware: State #House: #HD12: Rep. Krista Griffith | #HD14: Rep. Claire Snyder-Hall | #HD16: Pamela Salaam! #GOTV #VOTE #DEpol #DElegis #DElege ⚖️
September 27, 2026 at 6:12 PM
🗳️ JOLPOL endorses these pro- #Justice, #Opportunity, & #Liberty candidates for 11/3 General #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #Elections2026:
🗳️ #Delaware: State #House: #HD12: Rep. Krista Griffith | #HD14: Rep. Claire Snyder-Hall | #HD16: Pamela Salaam! #GOTV #VOTE #DEpol #DElegis #DElege ⚖️
🗳️ #Delaware: State #House: #HD12: Rep. Krista Griffith | #HD14: Rep. Claire Snyder-Hall | #HD16: Pamela Salaam! #GOTV #VOTE #DEpol #DElegis #DElege ⚖️
Almost forgot, but we do have a special state legislative election tonight in Alabama! It's in #HD12, a Trump+78 seat in northern Alabama.
No danger of the seat flipping of course, but the margins might be interesting
No danger of the seat flipping of course, but the margins might be interesting
October 28, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Almost forgot, but we do have a special state legislative election tonight in Alabama! It's in #HD12, a Trump+78 seat in northern Alabama.
No danger of the seat flipping of course, but the margins might be interesting
No danger of the seat flipping of course, but the margins might be interesting
One annoying race result came in #HD12, where Paul Kendrick won the race to succeed Margaret Croke in the Gold Coast area.
This is guy who bragged about "Democrats getting mad at him" for being tough on crime, so he's as annoying as you'd think he is
This is guy who bragged about "Democrats getting mad at him" for being tough on crime, so he's as annoying as you'd think he is
March 18, 2026 at 2:21 AM
One annoying race result came in #HD12, where Paul Kendrick won the race to succeed Margaret Croke in the Gold Coast area.
This is guy who bragged about "Democrats getting mad at him" for being tough on crime, so he's as annoying as you'd think he is
This is guy who bragged about "Democrats getting mad at him" for being tough on crime, so he's as annoying as you'd think he is
Hiding the name here because I don't want folks to be rude but....related to last night's special in PA HD12, 50% turnout of a Presidential election, for a special election, less than 3 months before the Midterms, is INCREDIBLE turnout!
Also, comparing Presidential turnout to midterms is silly.
Also, comparing Presidential turnout to midterms is silly.
August 19, 2026 at 8:46 PM
Hiding the name here because I don't want folks to be rude but....related to last night's special in PA HD12, 50% turnout of a Presidential election, for a special election, less than 3 months before the Midterms, is INCREDIBLE turnout!
Also, comparing Presidential turnout to midterms is silly.
Also, comparing Presidential turnout to midterms is silly.
Illinois's most hotly-contested State House primary back in 2020 was in #HD12 on the north side of Chicago.
It was a proxy war between Governor Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot, as Pritzker's candidate (Margaret Croke) unseated appointed Lightfoot-supported incumbent Yoni Pizer.
It was a proxy war between Governor Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot, as Pritzker's candidate (Margaret Croke) unseated appointed Lightfoot-supported incumbent Yoni Pizer.
November 26, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Illinois's most hotly-contested State House primary back in 2020 was in #HD12 on the north side of Chicago.
It was a proxy war between Governor Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot, as Pritzker's candidate (Margaret Croke) unseated appointed Lightfoot-supported incumbent Yoni Pizer.
It was a proxy war between Governor Pritzker and Mayor Lightfoot, as Pritzker's candidate (Margaret Croke) unseated appointed Lightfoot-supported incumbent Yoni Pizer.
Likeliest targets:
HD52 (Hood River)
HD22 (North Salem/Keizer)
HD6 (Medford)
HD31 (Columbia County)
HD12 (E Lane County)
SD 11 (N Salem/Keizer/Woodburn)
SD 16 (NW Oregon)
HD52 (Hood River)
HD22 (North Salem/Keizer)
HD6 (Medford)
HD31 (Columbia County)
HD12 (E Lane County)
SD 11 (N Salem/Keizer/Woodburn)
SD 16 (NW Oregon)
Dems either need to flip 2 Senate seats and 3 house seats...
*OR JUST GET ALLIES IN LABOR TO GET A QUORUM FIX CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT ONTO THE BALLOT*
*OR JUST GET ALLIES IN LABOR TO GET A QUORUM FIX CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT ONTO THE BALLOT*
Dems control Oregon govt & could target the last Republican, but the GOP often uses the 2/3 supermajority requirement to deny a quorum.
Dems might gain 2/3 majorities in 2026—if they don't, they'd have to get creative to ensure a quorum.
Interactive map+data davesredistricting.org/join/24923d9...
Dems might gain 2/3 majorities in 2026—if they don't, they'd have to get creative to ensure a quorum.
Interactive map+data davesredistricting.org/join/24923d9...
April 29, 2026 at 9:36 PM
Likeliest targets:
HD52 (Hood River)
HD22 (North Salem/Keizer)
HD6 (Medford)
HD31 (Columbia County)
HD12 (E Lane County)
SD 11 (N Salem/Keizer/Woodburn)
SD 16 (NW Oregon)
HD52 (Hood River)
HD22 (North Salem/Keizer)
HD6 (Medford)
HD31 (Columbia County)
HD12 (E Lane County)
SD 11 (N Salem/Keizer/Woodburn)
SD 16 (NW Oregon)