#HungaTonga
Some residual is part of the stairstep. Okay. Thank you.

And even this residual sits on a seesaw with, if significant enough, potential La Nina's residual, I suspect.

Reminds me offtopic of the HungaTonga modelled impact where hell freezes over 9 years after explosion.
bsky.app/profile/anlo...
One more map, either 2030 or 2031.
Don't think, it is likely occur this way. I think, the experiment wasn't set up to draw this conclusion. (Jucker et al. was.)

But. It's gonna be A STRONG impact 9yrs after 🌋! Hell freezes over – yet climate scientists keep saying that HungaTonga had ±0 impact.
4/3
September 11, 2026 at 5:25 AM
On 2026-09-02 #TROPOMI has detected an enhanced SO2 signal of 8.86DU at a distance of 218.6km to #Tofua or #HungaTonga. #DLR_inpuls #S5p #Sentinel5p #TROPOMI #SO2LH
September 2, 2026 at 4:43 AM
On 2026-08-30 #TROPOMI has detected an enhanced SO2 signal of 3.57DU at a distance of 220.5km to #Tofua or #HungaTonga. #DLR_inpuls #S5p #Sentinel5p #TROPOMI #SO2LH
August 30, 2026 at 2:44 AM
When will people learn that it's never a good idea to go tourist near an active volcano? (But no lie, I'd do the same.) #HungaTonga #Tonga #Volcano #Tsunami #OceanDocumentary
August 15, 2026 at 2:40 AM
Living in a landlocked state may suck, and we definitely struggle with tornadoes and wildfires, but at least we will never have a tsunami. Those things and other severe weather scare the shit out of me. #HungaTonga #Tonga #Volcano #Tsunami #OceanDocumentary
August 15, 2026 at 2:23 AM
Hell freezing over is scheduled for year 9 after Hunga Tonga according to one study in a supplement of the HungaTonga Report.
bsky.app/profile/anlo...
Super Nino was scheduled for 2026.
It was the only study in the whole report that was not societally irrelevant. Hidden in a supplement. Physicists…
One more map, either 2030 or 2031.
Don't think, it is likely occur this way. I think, the experiment wasn't set up to draw this conclusion. (Jucker et al. was.)

But. It's gonna be A STRONG impact 9yrs after 🌋! Hell freezes over – yet climate scientists keep saying that HungaTonga had ±0 impact.
4/3
July 21, 2026 at 4:00 AM
Ladies, Gents: Could the HungaTonga Eruption in 22´ play any role? Bcs of the massiv watervap transfered into the atmosphere. your opinion is appreciated.
June 27, 2026 at 10:31 AM
New paper by @ncar-acom.bsky.social scientist Ilaria Quaglia and co-authors: "Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic #aerosols after the 2022 #Hunga #Eruption"
acp.copernicus.org/articles/26/...
#WaterVapor #VolcanicAerosols #HTHH #SO2 #HungaTonga
acp.copernicus.org
June 18, 2026 at 3:12 PM
1877/78 gabs schon mal einen heftigen Ausschlag. Die Hungersnöte sind auch historisch belegt, nicht bloß ErsstV6-Fantasie.
Und guck, die einzige gesellschaftl. nützliche Studie im HungaTonga Report –die einzige, und dazu in einem Supplement!– malt einen Super El Nino 2026 bsky.app/profile/anlo...
June 7, 2026 at 3:29 PM
It is unfortunate how HungaTonga is systematically ignored in analyses of these crazy events. May breaking June records in Europe, March in USA breaking April.
Did HungaTonga maybe add 3°C, and Exxon merely 2.3C?
Charts in Jucker et al indicate this possibility!
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
May 26, 2026 at 11:18 AM
So a 5.3 on the Exxon scale. ^^
It is very unfortunate that HungaTonga is systematically ignored in analyses of these odd events. May breaking June records in Europe, or March in USA breaking April.
Did HungaTonga maybe add 3°C, and Exxon merely 2.3?
Charts in Jucker et al indicate this possibility!
May 26, 2026 at 11:15 AM
To be fair, HungaTonga is also still in the system and doing stuff.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
The anomaly maps here were computed over a 2005-2020 baseline, ie the climate we knew.
And yet, HungaTonga's water vapour injection manages to increase the MAM temperature anomaly in Europe.
May 25, 2026 at 7:38 PM
Oh MDPI was it? Weell. Bad illustration of my point how WG1 authors / physicists often have no notion how important biosphere and societal response are.
A "Global Mean-obsession" by individual clisci is one indicator of that.
Online reaction to HungaTonga and the report were awash with GM obsession👇
I agree. The obsession with Global Mean Anything GMA obscures revelations about regional impacts and regional drivers too.
Eg, HungaTonga is shrugged off as negligible wrt GMA. But 1 study suggests how🇬🇧winter floods are 1 impact, destroyed crops and delayed sowing. Another shows a super-El Nino 2026
May 14, 2026 at 6:16 PM
2/2 Those 2 studies aren't real forecasts. Jucker etal, the one on the left comes close in its study target, but the other (with the super-El Nino 2026) only kinda fools around a little.
We'd need comparative model studies for Hungatonga impacts but no one sees the necessity due to GlobalMean focus.
May 6, 2026 at 7:32 AM
I only realised yesterday that a study projected a super-El Nino as HungaTonga impact for 2026
bsky.app/profile/anlo...
See the picture on the right, "year 4" is 2026.
But because HungaTonga had 0 impact on "Global Mean Anything", it doesn't get the research attention it deserves.
1/2
I agree. The obsession with Global Mean Anything GMA obscures revelations about regional impacts and regional drivers too.
Eg, HungaTonga is shrugged off as negligible wrt GMA. But 1 study suggests how🇬🇧winter floods are 1 impact, destroyed crops and delayed sowing. Another shows a super-El Nino 2026
May 6, 2026 at 7:32 AM
I agree. The obsession with Global Mean Anything GMA obscures revelations about regional impacts and regional drivers too.
Eg, HungaTonga is shrugged off as negligible wrt GMA. But 1 study suggests how🇬🇧winter floods are 1 impact, destroyed crops and delayed sowing. Another shows a super-El Nino 2026
May 5, 2026 at 11:32 AM
Hunga tonga y Henry Stephen:  Leer #HungaTonga #HenryStephen #PedroSánchez
Hunga tonga y Henry Stephen
 Leer
dlvr.it
April 24, 2026 at 11:03 AM
I hope they're wrong. And I hope, this will be the year when the HungaTonga explosion lets "hell freeze over". That should make modellers really interested in the event so they finally run proper multi-model comparisons to figure out regional impacts on societies & nature. 🖖 bsky.app/profile/anlo...
One more map, either 2030 or 2031.
Don't think, it is likely occur this way. I think, the experiment wasn't set up to draw this conclusion. (Jucker et al. was.)

But. It's gonna be A STRONG impact 9yrs after 🌋! Hell freezes over – yet climate scientists keep saying that HungaTonga had ±0 impact.
4/3
March 26, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Der neue Science Daily Artkel aus dem der Screenshot stammt, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/202...
ist über ein 🔒Paper
aus 2025
zum plötzlichen Schmelzprozess
am Hektoria Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula "which retreated ~25 km between January 2022 and March 2023."
Also im Bananas Jahr nach HungaTonga
Antarctica just saw the fastest glacier collapse ever recorded
Antarctica’s Hektoria Glacier stunned scientists by retreating eight kilometers in just two months, with nearly half of it collapsing in record time. The rapid breakup was driven by a flat, underwater...
www.sciencedaily.com
February 27, 2026 at 12:48 PM
I am very sad how the modelling community denies to investigate societally relevant impacts of this event. Regional impacts eg Pakistan's monster monsoon and Europe DJF rain destabilise societies. Yet the recent big HungaTonga report only had 1 study dealing with it in a similar way as Jucker et al.
February 26, 2026 at 11:38 AM
Thank you!
I have a question:
why is HungaTonga not even mentioned as driver, if not THE main driver of the increased winter rainfall since 2023?
Jucker et al 2024 modelled precisely that as impact for DJF in Europe. Over a 2005-2021 climate baseline.
Please do not block me, I am not a troll.
February 26, 2026 at 11:38 AM
Can you tell that other year where February went below 1005? What year was that? Want to check whether it was as special as 2026-February wrt HungaTonga.
February 19, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Mit den Folgen, die außer in Südasien 2022 grade noch so passieren, ist die🌐Wirkung von HungaTonga nahezu untragbar für die Tech-Zivilisation.
Klima-Attributionsforschung gibt aber ja weder Aufschluss über die Tragbarkeit dieses Events, noch über Tragbarkeit bei Klimadesastern. Das is nich ihr Thema
February 17, 2026 at 10:51 AM
Information von Klima-Attributionsforschung über die Tragbarkeit? Nee. Null.
HungaTonga spielte mMn garantiert die Hauptrolle in Pakistans und Indiens Monstermonsoon 2022.
Pakistans Covid-Hungernde verdreifachten sich.
Indien stoppte Zucker- u Reisexport für 2 Jahre.
Klima heizt den anderen Phänomenen halt noch mehr ein.
Eh Klar.
Ändert alles nix an der Tatsache, dass das News-Bombardement auf fehlenden Erfahrungshorizont bei mir/bei uns trifft. Und so das Bombardement zu Fehlinterpretation dessen führen muss, wie schlimm es schon bzw. wie tragbar es noch ist.
February 17, 2026 at 10:51 AM
Ja. Folgen der von HungaTonga ausgelösten Extreme erodieren gesellschaftl. Orga eben auch. Schon 2023/24 verdarb🌋die UK-Ernten und verzögerte die Aussaht. Diese Preisspirale geht nun weiter.
Auch andere Krisen zB Covid, Putler (=🌐Gaspreise), bald die platzende AI-Finanzbubble, drehen am Kollaps-Rad.
3C ist Fantasie, denn so viel CO2 wird nicht mehr emittiert.
Zu den Klima-Einschlägen kommen ja auch noch die damit unverwandten Krisen. Wie die Mittelklasse daran schon erodiert, sieht man an SE-Asias Auto-Verkaufszahlen👇 die >3 Jahre lang sanken. Nun nehmen Klimadesaster in Frequenz + Stärke zu ⏰💣
Same as Indonesia robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
Mind you, car sales are horrible, any fuel. What I find noteworthy is how the botched global Covid approach and Putler's war reduced the SE-Asian middle class, ie who can afford a car.
With rising # of climate impacts, societies💥erode permanently.
February 17, 2026 at 10:20 AM