Orders and output improved in August, but smaller manufacturers, jobs, services and construction remained below 50. The recovery still lacks breadth.

A coalition of 25 Democrat-led states filed lawsuits on Monday to block President Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs against 59 countries and the European

Key Highlights * PMI slipped to 53.5 in July, the lowest since August 2021. * New domestic orders fell sharply, dragging overall growth. * Export demand remained robust, especially from Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya, Nepal, South Africa, Thailand, and UAE. * Employment growth persisted for 29 consecutive months, though hiring pace slowed. * Input‑cost inflation eased to its lowest level in five months. Detailed Insights The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, recorded a reading of 53.5 in July 2026, down from 54.2 in June. A PMI above 50 denotes expansion, so the sector is still growing, but the narrowing gap signals a deceleration driven largely by subdued domestic demand. New orders, a key driver of the index, showed a pronounced slowdown, while export orders continued to buoy the index thanks to sustained demand from several overseas markets. Factory output rose at a modest pace, the slowest in the past two years, and employment growth, though steady for 29 months, has begun to decelerate. Input‑cost pressures have eased, with the cost‑inflation component falling to its lowest in five months, reflecting a temporary reprieve for manufacturers. Overall, the PMI data suggest that the manufacturing sector is entering a phase of cautious expansion, balancing persistent employment gains against a tightening demand environment. Key Concepts * Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – A composite indicator derived from monthly surveys of purchasing managers that gauges the health of the manufacturing economy. * Expansion Threshold – A PMI value above 50 signals growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction. * New Orders – Orders received during the month that are expected to be fulfilled in the future; a critical component of the PMI. * Export Orders – Orders from foreign buyers; they can offset domestic demand shortfalls. * Input‑Cost Inflation – The rate at which the prices of raw materials and other inputs rise, influencing overall production costs.

July's 49.2 PMI matters less than the sharper fall in new orders, which may pull production lower if the weakness persists beyond weather disruption.

Biggest #trends of the day for 'continue rise' 'rajiv kumar' and 'manufacturing pmi' https://www.newsmason.com/?query=%22continue%20rise%22 https://www.newsmason.com/?query=%22rajiv%20kumar%22 https://www.newsmason.com/?query=%22manufacturing%20pmi%22 #continuerise #rajivkumar #manufacturingpmi

Spain manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7 in March 2026 (vs 50.4 expected), with input-price inflation at its strongest since late 2022, raising ECB policy risks.

Swiss manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in March 2026 from 47.4; production 50.6, orderbook 54.2, purchasing prices surged to 71.3 (InvestingLive/Procure, Apr 1, 2026).

Russia's manufacturing sector returned to modest growth in June after more than a year of stagnation, as improving domestic demand offset a renewed deterioration in export markets, although businesses remained cautious over the outlook.

Turkey's manufacturing PMI fell to 47.1 in June from 49.8 in May as the Middle East war disrupted demand and supply chains. Find out how new orders slumped and why price pressures eased for the first time in months.

Russia’s manufacturing sector slipped further into the red in March, as weakening demand, falling output and declining business confidence highlighted mounting pressure on industrial activity, according to the latest data from S&P Global.

Outlook for February indicates further deterioration as manufacturing PMI index declines.

Russia’s manufacturing PMI contracted for a ninth consecutive month in February, although the pace of decline softened further, according to S&P Global, as new orders showed signs of stabilising and inflationary pressures moderated.

Iran's manufacturing PMI falls to seven-month low of 43 in January as new orders hit lowest since April 2020 and future production expectations reach record low in 88 survey rounds.

The Eurozone’s manufacturing sector saw little change in November, with final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data pointing to continued stagnation across the bloc’s industrial base, Oxford Economics reported on November 28.

* Australia S&P Global July flash services PMI at 53.8 (vs 51.8 in June) * Australia S&P Global July flash manufacturing PMI at 51.6 (vs 50.6 in June) * Composite 53.6 (prior 51.6) All three moving further into expansion, solid results indeed. And you lot want a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut? ;-) ps, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking later today: * 1.05pm Sydney time * 0305 GMT * 2305 US Eastern time Topic is "The RBA’s Dual Mandate - Inflation and Employment". This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

* Prior 49.0 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Saturday, May 31, 2025, official May 2025 PMIs Manufacturing Sector * PMI: Rose to 49.5 (expected 49.5 and from 49.0 in April); still below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction for a second month. The improvement in May is likely reflecting some thawing in the icy trade war that chilled again this week. Purchasing managers nevertheless took a cautious approach, evidenced by the index remaining in contraction, amid lingering, and proved justified, uncertainties. * Large enterprises: PMI at 50.7 (expanding, +1.5 pts). * Medium-sized: 47.5 (contracting, -1.3 pts). * Small enterprises: 49.3 (contracting, but improved +0.6 pts). * Sub-indices: * Production: 50.7 (expanding, +0.9 pts). * New orders: 49.8 (contracting, but rebounding +0.6 pts). * Raw material inventories: 47.4 (still weak, but decline narrowing). * Employment: 48.1 (slightly improved, but below threshold). * Supplier delivery times: 50.0 (neutral). Non-Manufacturing Sector * Headline PMI: 50.3 (expected 50.6 and slightly down from 50.4 in April, but still expanding). * Construction activity: 51.0 (moderate growth, down 0.9 pts). * Services activity: 50.2 (marginal growth, up 0.1 pt). * High-performing industries: Rail, air transport, postal, telecoms, IT (all above 55.0). * Weak sectors: Real estate and capital markets (below 50). * New orders: 46.1 (rising, but still weak). * Construction: 43.3 (+3.7 pts). * Services: 46.6 (+0.7 pts). * Input prices: 48.2 (still declining, but at a slower pace). * Selling prices: 47.3 (decline narrowing). * Employment: 45.5 (unchanged, remains weak). * Business expectations: 55.9 (slightly down, but still optimistic). --- I posted on Friday on promises of more stimulus incoming: * China expected to announce 'major financial polices' on June 18 and 19, 2025 As I said in the post: * How many times have we been promised big economic announcements from China ... only to be disappointed with incremental change? I suspect as that date approaches excitement and pumping will build, only to be dashed. Enough whining, its the weekend! Have good one and don't forget to join early on Monday for the market response to all the news the weekend will bring. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

* Fox reports that Elon Musk plans to step down from Doge at the end of May * Japan Prime Minister Ishiba: need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation * US Senator to introduce bill allowing Americans to invest their retirement funds in crypto * China Caixin March Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (vs. expected 51.1 and prior 50.8) * Trump is to announce his next round of tariffs at 3pm US Eastern time Wednesday * PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1775 (vs. estimate at 7.2606) * China's Commerce Ministry says held a hearing on imported beef safeguard measures * Vote in US Congress on Tuesday to block blanket tariffs on Canada could rebuke Trump * Australia retail sales in February +0.2% m/m (expected +0.3%, prior +0.3%) * Japan final manufacturing PMI for March 48.4 (preliminary was 48.3) * Judge delays the deportation of up to 350K migrants from the US * BOJ official says major producers sentiment worsened due to 3 factors * BoJ Q1 2025 Tankan - Large manufacturing index 12 (expected 12, prior 14) * China will be conducting military exercises near Taiwan from today (April1 ) * Japan February Unemployment Rate 2.4% (vs. 2.5% expected) * ICYMI - Japan’s GPIF will maintain its current allocation * UK data - BRC shop price index (an inflation indicator) -0.4% y/y in March (expected -0.4) * Trump says he's settled on a tariff plan * Trump says 'going to be nice' on tariffs * Big jump for the Australian March Manufacturing PMI, final comes in at 52.1 (prior 50.4) * Trump signed an executive order establishing the United States investment accelerator * Iran warns will respond swiftly, decisively, to act of aggression or attack by US, Israel * ICYMI - BOJ will reduce purchases of 10–25-year JGBs for the first time * Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 31 Mar:Markets rebound late despite tariff fears/mixed Fed * Reports that Trump won't decide on tariffs until the morning of April 2 * Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 1 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas US Treasury Secretary Bessent said today (interview on Fox) that Trump’s announcement on his next round of tariffs will be on Wednesday, April 2, at 3 pm US Eastern time (1900 GMT). Ahead of this Trump spoke with media Monday evening dropping a few hints on what to expect. In brief: * Trump said he has settled on a tariff plan * is going to be "very kind" * "The word reciprocal is very important" * we are going to be nice very comparison to other countries * in some cases maybe substantially lower This all doesn’t sound like some sort of 20% blanket tariff will be applied, but we await Trump’s decision. The Bank of Japan released its quarterly ‘Tankan’ report. The results were reasonable, not spectacular, showing the 17th quarter in a row of positive. The inflation expectations part of the survey showed a slight rise, which will be some encouragement for the BoJ rate hike path ahead. China's private manufacturing PMI showed expansion at its fastest rate in four months in March. Stronger demand and robust export orders cited, although escalating US tariffs do not bode well ahead. On the geopolitical front, China launched a major military exercise around Taiwan today. State media says the exercises are a 'warning' to separatist forces: * "to approach Taiwan Island from multiple directions around the island"; and "seizing comprehensive control, sea and land strikes, and blocking key areas and roads." Yet to come is the Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision (0330 GMT/2330 US Eastern time) followed by Bullock’s press conference (an hour later). Major FX has traded in subdued ranges only. AUD and NZD had a slight dip on news that China’s Commerce Ministry held a hearing on imported beef safeguard measures Gold rallied further, another record high hit, as the squeeze continued. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Caixin March Manufacturing PMI solid jump higher than February, and better than expected. 51.2, highest since November, six straight months of expansion * expected 51.1 and prior 50.8 The official data was an OK result also: * China March official Manufacturing PMI 50.5 (expected of 50.5) In brief: * Rising output and demand: Both production and new orders increased, with output growing for the 17th month in a row and export orders hitting a high not seen since April 2023. * Slight job market improvement: Employment grew marginally, entering expansion for the first time since August 2023. Growth was strongest in firms making investment and intermediate goods. * Weak pricing environment: Input costs fell for the first time in six months due to lower commodity prices and supplier discounts. Output prices remained under pressure, contracting for the fourth month. * Supply chain delays: Supplier delivery times lengthened slightly, especially for investment goods. Firms stocked up on raw materials, but reduced finished goods inventories. * Business sentiment upbeat: Manufacturers remained optimistic about the near-term outlook, despite some concerns over global trade risks. Expectations for future output were above the yearly average. * Broader context: Economic indicators for early 2024 suggest a stable and slightly improving economy, though labour market weaknesses and deflationary pressures persist due to low domestic demand. * Policy outlook: The government is prioritising boosting consumption by focusing on employment, income growth, and financial support for households. Stronger and quicker macro policy actions are needed in 2025 to support recovery amid a challenging global environment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The screenshot below shows what's up for the session ahead. I included the notification for much of Europe and the UK switching to daylight saving on Sunday, ICYMI Justin's heads up: * Heads up: The clocks will go forward in Europe this weekend If you trade European and/or UK markets you may need to adjust your local start/end. As for today the focal point is the info from China, official PMIs for March. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing are expected to show a little improvement from February. Looking at recent history: Manufacturing PMI: * July 2024: The manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, a slight decrease of 0.1 from June, indicating a marginal contraction in manufacturing activity. * August 2024: The index declined further to 49.1, suggesting a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. * September 2024: The PMI improved to 49.8, approaching the expansion threshold but still indicating a slight contraction. * October 2024: The index reached 50.1, crossing into expansion territory, reflecting a modest recovery in manufacturing activity. * November 2024: The PMI increased to 50.3, marking the highest reading since April and indicating a continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. * December 2024: The index slightly decreased to 50.1%, maintaining its position above the threshold, thus indicating ongoing, albeit modest, expansion. * January 2025: China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 from 50.1 in December 2024, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. This decline was partly attributed to the Lunar New Year holiday, during which many workers returned to their hometowns, leading to reduced production capacity. Additionally, new orders and production sub-indices also experienced declines, reflecting weakened demand and output. * February 2025: China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, up from 49.1 in January, indicating a return to expansion in the manufacturing sector. These result, combine with the non-manufacturing PMI for the month (see below) imply a tentative stabilization in China's economy, though challenges such as trade tensions and internal structural adjustments persist.​ Non-Manufacturing PMI: * July 2024: The non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, a decrease of 0.3 from June, indicating marginal expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. * August 2024: The index declined to 49.6, signaling a contraction in non-manufacturing activities. * September 2024: The PMI rebounded to 50.9, returning to expansion territory. * October 2024: The index decreased to 50.6, indicating a slower pace of expansion. * November 2024: The PMI further declined to 50.0, suggesting stagnation in non-manufacturing activities. * December 2024: The index rose to 52.2, reflecting a notable recovery and expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. * January 2025: The non-manufacturing PMI, which encompasses the services and construction sectors, decreased to 50.2 in January from 52.2 in the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in growth. The services sector, in particular, was affected by the holiday period, leading to reduced business activity and employment challenges. Despite the slowdown, the index remained above the 50-point threshold, indicating continued, albeit slower, expansion. * February 2025: The non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.4 from 50.2, suggesting modest growth in services and construction activities. ​ The unofficial, Caixin, PMIs from March will follow later in the week. More on the difference between these two sets of PMI's below. The PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Indexes) from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Caixin/S&P Global differ primarily in survey scope, methodology, and focus. Here's a breakdown of the key differences: 1. Provider and Affiliation * NBS PMI: * Compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, a government agency. * Seen as the official PMI, closely aligned with government policies and priorities. * Caixin/S&P Global PMI: * Compiled by Caixin Media in collaboration with S&P Global. * A private-sector index, often considered more market-driven. 2. Survey Scope * NBS PMI: * Focuses on large and state-owned enterprises. * Covers a broader range of industries, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors (e.g., construction and services). * Reflects conditions in sectors heavily influenced by government policies and infrastructure spending. * Caixin PMI: * Focuses on small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly in the private sector. * Captures the performance of companies that are more exposed to market-driven forces and less influenced by state interventions. 3. Sample Size and Composition * NBS PMI: * Larger sample size, with about 3,000 enterprises surveyed for the manufacturing PMI. * Emphasizes state-owned enterprises and larger companies, which tend to dominate traditional industries. * Caixin PMI: * Smaller sample size, surveying around 500 enterprises, with a stronger focus on export-oriented and technology-driven firms. * Provides insights into the private sector and its responsiveness to global economic conditions. 4. Release Dates * NBS PMI: * Released monthly, typically on the last day of the month. * Provides separate PMIs for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. * Caixin PMI: * Released a few days later, usually on the first business day of the following month. * Includes only the manufacturing PMI and services PMI, with no equivalent for non-manufacturing activities like construction. 5. Interpretation and Use * NBS PMI: * Reflects the overall economic landscape, especially trends in industries influenced by government policy. * Analysts use it to gauge the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the broader economy. * Caixin PMI: * Viewed as a better indicator of the health of the private sector and market-driven segments of the economy. * Considered more sensitive to external shocks (e.g., global trade conditions). 6. Key Insights and Differences in Results * The NBS PMI often reflects policy-driven stability, showing less volatility because it covers sectors cushioned by government support. * The Caixin PMI can be more volatile, as SMEs are more sensitive to real-time changes in market demand, supply chain disruptions, and global economic shifts. Why Both Matter: * NBS PMI offers a macroeconomic view of China's state-influenced economy. * Caixin PMI provides a microeconomic perspective of the more market-driven and globally competitive sectors. By analyzing both, investors and policymakers can obtain a more comprehensive picture of China's economic health and its underlying dynamics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

India's real GDP is projected to grow at 6.5% in FY25 and FY26, driven by resilient fundamentals and strong economic performance, according to EY Economy Watch December 2024.

The Indian stock market outlook for next week depends on RBI's interest rate decision, economic data like PMI, auto sales, and global events like US job reports.

Investing.com - U.S. futures point lower ahead of the start of a holiday-truncated trading week, with much of the focus set to revolve around upcoming economic data that could provide more clarity around the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Swiss food titan Nestle’s shares dip after the abrupt departure of its CEO. Elsewhere, gold touches an all-time peak amid expectations for lower U.S. rates and trade-related uncertainty. 1. Futures slip U.S. stock futures dropped on Tuesday, as traders returned for a week shortened by a holiday but not devoid of potentially consequential events. By 03:37 ET (07:37 GMT), the Dow futures contract had fallen by 113 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had shed 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 65 points, or 0.3%. The main averages on Wall Street were closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. At the end of the last trading day on Friday, stocks dipped, weighed down partially by declines in artificial intelligence-related names. But, despite August being a traditionally difficult for stocks, the S&P 500 gained 1.9% for the month, bringing its year-to-date advance to roughly 10% and putting the benchmark index not far from record highs. It was the latest leg higher in what has become an extended recovery in equities since an April swoon sparked by concerns over sweeping U.S. tariffs. 2. ISM manufacturing PMI ahead Investors are now turning their gazes back to the economic calendar, which will be headlined this week by Friday’s release of the ever-important monthly nonfarm payrolls report. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Analysts have said that a soft or tepid reading for August -- which would come after an unexpectedly weak return in July and deep downward revisions to the preceding two months -- could further cement bets that the Federal Reserve will ratchet down interest rates at its next policy meeting on Sept. 16-17. Economists expect the U.S. to have added 74,000 roles, versus in 73,000 in July. In the meantime, markets will be keeping tabs on other indicators, including a gauge of U.S. manufacturing sector activity on Tuesday from the Institute for Supply Management. The August measure is tipped to come in at 49.0, compared to 48.0 in July yet still below the 50-point mark denoting contraction. 3. Nestle CEO ousted Switzerland-listed shares in Nestle (SIX:NESN) dropped by more than 3% in morning dealmaking on Tuesday after the food giant announced the sudden departure of its chief executive for the second time in a year. CEO Laurent Freixe was ousted from the post on Monday in the wake of a board meeting to discuss the findings of an investigation into an undisclosed romantic relationship with a subordinate that violated the firm’s code of conduct. Freixe is being replaced with immediate effect by Philipp Navratil, a veteran company insider who has headed up its Nespresso coffee division, Nestle said. The shake-up may present fresh headwinds to a business already grappling with several years of muted sales volumes and share price declines, as well as the dismissal of former CEO Mark Schneider a year ago. Long-time Chair Paul Bulcke has also said he will step down in 2026. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. 4. Gold hits record high Gold prices touched a new record high on Tuesday, as bullion’s longstanding safe-haven appeal was burnished by wagers of U.S. interest rate cuts and murkiness around U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Broader metal prices also notched strong gains, with silver surging to a near 14-year high, while platinum remained in sight of a 11-year high. This came as the dollar sank to a five-week low on expectations of falling U.S. borrowing costs. Non-yielding assets such as metals tend to benefit from lower rates, given that they make commodities appear more attractive over investing in government debt. Spot gold surged 0.8% to a record high of $3,508.54 an ounce, while Gold Futures for December hit a peak of $3,578.20/oz. Spot prices curbed some gains to trade 0.2% higher at $3,482.28/oz by 03:27 ET. Gold’s latest round of gains was spurred by heightened uncertainty over Trump’s trade tariffs, after an appeals court ruled last week that they were illegal. While the court said Trump’s tariffs could remain in place until mid-October, the president criticized the decision and said he would challenge the ruling in the Supreme Court. 5. Oil pushes higher Oil prices rose, extending the previous session’s gains, as traders weighed the risk of fresh supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict against expanding output from OPEC+ members. As of 03:32 ET (07:32 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in November gained 0.9% to $68.74 per barrel, after jumping more than 1% on Monday. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures did not settle on Monday due to the U.S. holiday, and traded 1.0% higher from their Friday close at $65.24 per barrel. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have dimmed after Trump last month urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold direct talks before considering a trilateral summit hosted by Washington. The intensified airstrikes have raised the chances of more sanctions against Russia, potentially leading to supply disruptions, which could push prices higher. The U.S. and its allies are also stepping up enforcement of secondary sanctions on Russian oil, though the measures have so far had limited impact on flows to Asia. Partly offsetting these risks was increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) in recent months, which has raised worries over a possible supply glut. Traders are now looking ahead to the Sept. 7 meeting of OPEC+ for signals on its output policy. Ask WarrenAI, our powerful AI financial research assistant. It's just like ChatGPT for investors, but with access to 10 years of company data, a built-in screener, Wall Street analysts' reports, and earnings call transcripts for real-time, vetted insights. Get answers about NESN and thousands of other assets within seconds.