Eight months into the Iran war, Gulf crude flows are approaching pre-war volumes but a depleted products and LNG system faces winter with no margin WHAT: Gulf crude exports have rebounded, yet refined product and LNG supply remains sharply curtailed. WHY: Roughly 2.4mn bpd of GCC refining capacity and 17% of Qatari LNG are offline. WHAT NEXT: The IEA Governing Board meets on October 14-15 to set a diesel-focused stock release. For a brief window in late September, oil traders convinced themselves the worst had passed. Kpler data showed Middle East crude exports outside Iran climbing back above pre-war levels, with 40% of barrels now bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, largely through Saudi and Emirati pipelines. Energy Aspects projected the global crude deficit narrowing to just 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, down from almost 4mn bpd in May. October has disabused the market of that optimism. Between September 28 and October 5, at least 12 attacks were recorded on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the strait, the heaviest weekly tally since the war began on February 28. Confirmed Hormuz flows collapsed to 2.72mn bpd on October 7 from 12.26mn bpd three days earlier, and exports through the strait averaged 8.5mn bpd over the latest week, roughly 40% below normal. Brent December was trading at $101.62 on the morning of October 12. Crude rerouted, not resolved The crude system has absorbed the shock better than most analysts dared hope. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, knocked out on September 10 by drone strikes launched from Iraqi territory, is back to around 5.8mn bpd, according to the Saudi energy minister. Vortexa put Gulf crude and condensate flows at 91% of their 16.3mn bpd pre-war level in September, while the US blockade has driven Iranian exports to zero. The architecture supporting those gains is thin. Exports now hinge on US naval escorts, ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, and a single Saudi pipeline that has already been struck once. On the Red Sea flank, Houthi forces continue to target Saudi infrastructure. Energy Aspects still expects Saudi, Emirati, Iraqi and Kuwaiti output to average 17.3mn bpd this month, against about 21mn bpd before the war. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pushed back its timeline for a full Gulf supply recovery to 2027. Products: where the shortage really sits The deeper wound is downstream. Refined product and LPG exports from the Gulf remain roughly 3.7mn bpd, or close to 60%, below February levels. Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy estimates that 2.4mn bpd of GCC refining capacity went offline following attacks on around 20 refineries, including about 500,000 bpd at Bahrain’s Sitra. Saudi Aramco’s 400,000 bpd Jizan refinery on the Red Sea remains shut after Houthi strikes. Diesel is where the pressure is most acute. Net Gulf diesel and gasoil exports averaged 390,000 bpd in August, barely a quarter of pre-war levels. Combined with Russia’s losses, that strips 1.6mn bpd from two suppliers that between them accounted for nearly 45% of seaborne trade in February. Moscow has extended its diesel export ban for producers to the end of October. European diesel margins hit a record $95/bbl on September 23, and Singapore gasoil cracks peaked at a record $83.02/bbl. UK pump diesel reached GBP2.001p a litre on October 2, while US diesel set a record of $6.53 a gallon in late September. Jet fuel is not far behind. The near-closure of Hormuz removed nearly 21% of global seaborne jet supply. Carriers in Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan have borne the brunt, as China and Thailand halted jet exports and South Korea imposed caps. Cirium reports that no major hub has yet run dry. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary says jet fuel is trading at roughly 50% above Brent, against a historical premium of 10-15%. Gasoline is a smaller fire but burning hotter. Asia’s gasoline crack reached a record $50.53/bbl on October 1, and US pump prices averaging $4.36 a gallon make this the first October on record above $4. LNG is the most damaged market. Qatar shipped just 18 cargoes through end-August, against 509 a year earlier, and its force majeure notices now extend to November for Pakistan and Bangladesh and into early December for Italy’s Edison. Damage to two trains at Ras Laffan will keep 12.8mn tonnes per year (tpy), about 17% of Qatari export capacity, offline for up to five years. TTF closed at €73.70/MWh on the Friday before publication, with EU storage running low into winter. Stocks: a thinning cushion Inventories have taken most of the strain. Global observed stocks fell 95mn barrels in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507mn barrels. The distribution is lopsided: oil on water and non-OECD stocks, led by China, have borne the burden, while OECD stocks rose 23mn barrels in August. At Fujairah, light distillate stocks fell to a record low of 559,000 barrels in the week to October 5, and middle distillates dropped 15% to 2.29mn barrels. US distillate stocks sit about 13% below the five-year average. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982. China’s commercial gasoil and diesel stocks are around 20mn barrels below Beijing’s export threshold. The IEA release: smaller than the headlines imply The G7’s “100 million barrel” announcement on October 2 warrants scrutiny. The IEA has confirmed that about 325mn barrels of its record 400mn barrel March collective action have already been delivered. The 100mn figure represents the outstanding portion of that programme, not fresh tonnage. It will be released over four months, with a diesel tranche front-loaded into the first 20 days, though neither per-country volumes nor the diesel share have been fixed. Those details are due at the IEA Governing Board meeting on October 14-15. The agency says members still hold around 1.1bn barrels of public stocks, including more than 200mn barrels of diesel, and stands ready to release more. A genuinely new collective action, most plausibly diesel-focused, therefore remains in play. The obstacles are political and logistical. US president Donald Trump has threatened a diesel export ban to force Europe into releasing more, while a federal watchdog has warned that the US system is not configured for accelerated drawdowns. Stocks buy time; they do not rebuild hydroskimming units. Refiners running flat out Refiners outside the Gulf are at the ceiling. US utilisation hit 98% in September, with incremental barrels funnelled to export markets. India has emerged as the pivotal swing supplier. Its diesel exports reached 620,000 bpd in September, 280,000 bpd of which went to Europe, and Reliance alone shipped 929,000 bpd of clean fuels after New Delhi cut the windfall tax on exports. China is the wild card. Beijing suspended October product exports over the Golden Week holiday and has since approved around 3.7mn tonnes of gasoline, diesel and jet exports, but it continues to manage quotas month by month. Japanese refiners, who sourced 93.5% of crude imports from the Middle East in 2025, are shifting long-term barrels to North America. Asia’s refinery run cuts of 3.9-4.2mn bpd in March and April illustrate what another crude disruption would mean. How bad can it get? Goldman Sachs has lifted its December Brent forecast to $90/bbl, with an upside case of $125 should shipping attacks intensify or further infrastructure be damaged. The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average about $105/bbl in the fourth quarter. TD Securities’ bear case combines minimal Hormuz traffic, disruption at Bab el-Mandeb and further losses of Russian supply, which it says would put $150 or more back on the table. The products outlook is darker. Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy describes the market as “missing about 2 mb/d of products from Russia and nearly 2 mb/d from the Middle East” just as winter heating demand kicks in. Should Iran’s current campaign against shuttle tankers succeed, or should the East-West pipeline be hit again, the crude recovery could unwind within days. Diesel would shift from high prices to physical rationing, felt first in import-dependent South and Southeast Asia, then Europe. Price has been the pressure valve so far; the risk through winter is that availability itself becomes the constraint.

Eight months into the Iran war, Gulf crude flows are approaching pre-war volumes but a depleted products and LNG system faces winter with no margin WHAT: Gulf crude exports have rebounded, yet refined product and LNG supply remains sharply curtailed. WHY: Roughly 2.4mn bpd of GCC refining capacity and 17% of Qatari LNG are offline. WHAT NEXT: The IEA Governing Board meets on October 14-15 to set a diesel-focused stock release. For a brief window in late September, oil traders convinced themselves the worst had passed. Kpler data showed Middle East crude exports outside Iran climbing back above pre-war levels, with 40% of barrels now bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, largely through Saudi and Emirati pipelines. Energy Aspects projected the global crude deficit narrowing to just 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, down from almost 4mn bpd in May. October has disabused the market of that optimism. Between September 28 and October 5, at least 12 attacks were recorded on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the strait, the heaviest weekly tally since the war began on February 28. Confirmed Hormuz flows collapsed to 2.72mn bpd on October 7 from 12.26mn bpd three days earlier, and exports through the strait averaged 8.5mn bpd over the latest week, roughly 40% below normal. Brent December was trading at $101.62 on the morning of October 12. Crude rerouted, not resolved The crude system has absorbed the shock better than most analysts dared hope. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, knocked out on September 10 by drone strikes launched from Iraqi territory, is back to around 5.8mn bpd, according to the Saudi energy minister. Vortexa put Gulf crude and condensate flows at 91% of their 16.3mn bpd pre-war level in September, while the US blockade has driven Iranian exports to zero. The architecture supporting those gains is thin. Exports now hinge on US naval escorts, ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, and a single Saudi pipeline that has already been struck once. On the Red Sea flank, Houthi forces continue to target Saudi infrastructure. Energy Aspects still expects Saudi, Emirati, Iraqi and Kuwaiti output to average 17.3mn bpd this month, against about 21mn bpd before the war. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pushed back its timeline for a full Gulf supply recovery to 2027. Products: where the shortage really sits The deeper wound is downstream. Refined product and LPG exports from the Gulf remain roughly 3.7mn bpd, or close to 60%, below February levels. Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy estimates that 2.4mn bpd of GCC refining capacity went offline following attacks on around 20 refineries, including about 500,000 bpd at Bahrain’s Sitra. Saudi Aramco’s 400,000 bpd Jizan refinery on the Red Sea remains shut after Houthi strikes. Diesel is where the pressure is most acute. Net Gulf diesel and gasoil exports averaged 390,000 bpd in August, barely a quarter of pre-war levels. Combined with Russia’s losses, that strips 1.6mn bpd from two suppliers that between them accounted for nearly 45% of seaborne trade in February. Moscow has extended its diesel export ban for producers to the end of October. European diesel margins hit a record $95/bbl on September 23, and Singapore gasoil cracks peaked at a record $83.02/bbl. UK pump diesel reached GBP2.001p a litre on October 2, while US diesel set a record of $6.53 a gallon in late September. Jet fuel is not far behind. The near-closure of Hormuz removed nearly 21% of global seaborne jet supply. Carriers in Vietnam, Myanmar and Pakistan have borne the brunt, as China and Thailand halted jet exports and South Korea imposed caps. Cirium reports that no major hub has yet run dry. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary says jet fuel is trading at roughly 50% above Brent, against a historical premium of 10-15%. Gasoline is a smaller fire but burning hotter. Asia’s gasoline crack reached a record $50.53/bbl on October 1, and US pump prices averaging $4.36 a gallon make this the first October on record above $4. LNG is the most damaged market. Qatar shipped just 18 cargoes through end-August, against 509 a year earlier, and its force majeure notices now extend to November for Pakistan and Bangladesh and into early December for Italy’s Edison. Damage to two trains at Ras Laffan will keep 12.8mn tonnes per year (tpy), about 17% of Qatari export capacity, offline for up to five years. TTF closed at €73.70/MWh on the Friday before publication, with EU storage running low into winter. Stocks: a thinning cushion Inventories have taken most of the strain. Global observed stocks fell 95mn barrels in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507mn barrels. The distribution is lopsided: oil on water and non-OECD stocks, led by China, have borne the burden, while OECD stocks rose 23mn barrels in August. At Fujairah, light distillate stocks fell to a record low of 559,000 barrels in the week to October 5, and middle distillates dropped 15% to 2.29mn barrels. US distillate stocks sit about 13% below the five-year average. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982. China’s commercial gasoil and diesel stocks are around 20mn barrels below Beijing’s export threshold. The IEA release: smaller than the headlines imply The G7’s “100 million barrel” announcement on October 2 warrants scrutiny. The IEA has confirmed that about 325mn barrels of its record 400mn barrel March collective action have already been delivered. The 100mn figure represents the outstanding portion of that programme, not fresh tonnage. It will be released over four months, with a diesel tranche front-loaded into the first 20 days, though neither per-country volumes nor the diesel share have been fixed. Those details are due at the IEA Governing Board meeting on October 14-15. The agency says members still hold around 1.1bn barrels of public stocks, including more than 200mn barrels of diesel, and stands ready to release more. A genuinely new collective action, most plausibly diesel-focused, therefore remains in play. The obstacles are political and logistical. US president Donald Trump has threatened a diesel export ban to force Europe into releasing more, while a federal watchdog has warned that the US system is not configured for accelerated drawdowns. Stocks buy time; they do not rebuild hydroskimming units. Refiners running flat out Refiners outside the Gulf are at the ceiling. US utilisation hit 98% in September, with incremental barrels funnelled to export markets. India has emerged as the pivotal swing supplier. Its diesel exports reached 620,000 bpd in September, 280,000 bpd of which went to Europe, and Reliance alone shipped 929,000 bpd of clean fuels after New Delhi cut the windfall tax on exports. China is the wild card. Beijing suspended October product exports over the Golden Week holiday and has since approved around 3.7mn tonnes of gasoline, diesel and jet exports, but it continues to manage quotas month by month. Japanese refiners, who sourced 93.5% of crude imports from the Middle East in 2025, are shifting long-term barrels to North America. Asia’s refinery run cuts of 3.9-4.2mn bpd in March and April illustrate what another crude disruption would mean. How bad can it get? Goldman Sachs has lifted its December Brent forecast to $90/bbl, with an upside case of $125 should shipping attacks intensify or further infrastructure be damaged. The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average about $105/bbl in the fourth quarter. TD Securities’ bear case combines minimal Hormuz traffic, disruption at Bab el-Mandeb and further losses of Russian supply, which it says would put $150 or more back on the table. The products outlook is darker. Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy describes the market as “missing about 2 mb/d of products from Russia and nearly 2 mb/d from the Middle East” just as winter heating demand kicks in. Should Iran’s current campaign against shuttle tankers succeed, or should the East-West pipeline be hit again, the crude recovery could unwind within days. Diesel would shift from high prices to physical rationing, felt first in import-dependent South and Southeast Asia, then Europe. Price has been the pressure valve so far; the risk through winter is that availability itself becomes the constraint.

YouTube video by Clay

President Trump and Putin Show that They Control Supply and Demand of Oil and Gas and the Endgame Is Near Last Refuge shared the following: All of the energy traders, speculators et al, now have to cope with Russian diesel being shipped at lower prices than their speculative manipulation. The post President Trump and Putin Show that They Control Supply and Demand of Oil and Gas and the Endgame Is Near appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Russia is preparing to send millions of tons of diesel back to global markets under U.S.-backed arrangement.

Oil prices fell in early Monday trading as the G7 decided to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves, a move that pushed supplies higher despite regional conflict fears.

President Trump said Russia had agreed to ship potentially millions of tons of diesel fuel in the coming months. But Russia has an ongoing ban on exporting diesel.

Renewed fears of US military action against Iran are pushing oil, fuel prices and borrowing costs higher, while investors brace for another shock to the global economy

France to release 10m barrels of diesel in bid to curb rising prices

Brent crude futures surged 5% as geopolitical instability in the Gulf and concerns over US military action against Iran drove global market volatility.

Oil prices inched higher in volatile trade after crude exports from the Middle East increased and the G7 nations pledged to boost supplies. Florence Tan has more. #News #Reuters #Newsfeed #OilPrices #CrudeOil #G7 #MiddleEast #OilMarket #EnergyNews #Brent #WTI #OilSupply #BusinessNews #WorldNews #BreakingNews #GlobalEconomy #OilTrading #2026OilMarket #EnergyMarkets #OilExports #CommodityNews #MarketUpdate Read the story here: 👉 Subscribe: Keep up with the latest news from around the world: Follow Reuters on Facebook: Follow Reuters on X: Follow Reuters on Instagram:

Global crude oil prices rose after the Houthi militia launched missile and drone attacks targeting oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The attacks increased

The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel reserves, a move that brings fuel prices down and heads off a U.S. export ban that had European nations on edge. Diesel futures dropped 5% on the news — but with prices still near 70% above pre-conflict levels, leaders left the door open for more releases.

The coordinated release will include a substantial amount of diesel in the coming days, as the UK sees pump prices climb above £2 a litre

The coordinated release will include a substantial amount of diesel in the coming days, as the UK sees pump prices climb above £2 a litre

OPEC+ has pushed its key production capacity review to mid-November after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran upended expansion plans and left member nations scrambling to submit data. The stakes are high: the review will set 2027 output quotas for a cartel already fracturing over quota disputes, with Saudi Arabia's output hitting its lowest point since 1990 and the IEA calling this the worst oil supply crisis on record.

LONDON: Global oil prices rose on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the