Then how does Statcast explain the ball still went 325 ft after hitting the ceiling?
Chourio is in front of the 342 sign and easily a few steps onto the warning track (18ft).
Chourio is in front of the 342 sign and easily a few steps onto the warning track (18ft).
October 4, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Then how does Statcast explain the ball still went 325 ft after hitting the ceiling?
Chourio is in front of the 342 sign and easily a few steps onto the warning track (18ft).
Chourio is in front of the 342 sign and easily a few steps onto the warning track (18ft).
"A fly ball hit at 105mph with a 49° launch angle is only a homerun in Houston’s ballpark.
In the entire statcast era, a ball hit at that angle and speed has an expected batting average of .039 and a 0% homerun rate.
Cable or not, it was not going to be a homerun."
- Sam Kuffel
In the entire statcast era, a ball hit at that angle and speed has an expected batting average of .039 and a 0% homerun rate.
Cable or not, it was not going to be a homerun."
- Sam Kuffel
October 4, 2026 at 4:24 PM
"A fly ball hit at 105mph with a 49° launch angle is only a homerun in Houston’s ballpark.
In the entire statcast era, a ball hit at that angle and speed has an expected batting average of .039 and a 0% homerun rate.
Cable or not, it was not going to be a homerun."
- Sam Kuffel
In the entire statcast era, a ball hit at that angle and speed has an expected batting average of .039 and a 0% homerun rate.
Cable or not, it was not going to be a homerun."
- Sam Kuffel
I find a lot of the statcast “a ball like this EV/LA” pretty uncompelling given that we’ve had so many variances in ball drag over the years and that doesn’t include batted ball spin which matters a lot on a high arc like that
October 4, 2026 at 3:06 PM
I find a lot of the statcast “a ball like this EV/LA” pretty uncompelling given that we’ve had so many variances in ball drag over the years and that doesn’t include batted ball spin which matters a lot on a high arc like that
*flirting* You're the most beautiful person I've ever laid eyes on in the Statcast era
October 4, 2026 at 3:03 PM
*flirting* You're the most beautiful person I've ever laid eyes on in the Statcast era
Ty France hit a ball that would've ranked among the rarest home runs in Statcast history. A roof cable caught it instead. Padres down 1-0 in the NLDS because of stadium infrastructure. Quirk, or does baseball owe somebody an explanation?
October 4, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Ty France hit a ball that would've ranked among the rarest home runs in Statcast history. A roof cable caught it instead. Padres down 1-0 in the NLDS because of stadium infrastructure. Quirk, or does baseball owe somebody an explanation?
Was the Ty France hit a homerun?
Statcast says no, that given the LA of 49° and EV of 105.3 mph, it had no shot, but man... that looked like a HR
Statcast says no, that given the LA of 49° and EV of 105.3 mph, it had no shot, but man... that looked like a HR
October 4, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Was the Ty France hit a homerun?
Statcast says no, that given the LA of 49° and EV of 105.3 mph, it had no shot, but man... that looked like a HR
Statcast says no, that given the LA of 49° and EV of 105.3 mph, it had no shot, but man... that looked like a HR
This is what Statcast looked like last night.
October 4, 2026 at 2:15 PM
This is what Statcast looked like last night.
i love postseason base-ball
October 4, 2026 at 2:10 PM
i love postseason base-ball
I hope they actually show the statcast animation on today's broadcast instead of just having all the announcers talk about a ball every projection has as being 20' short as if it was a no doubt home run
October 4, 2026 at 1:29 PM
I hope they actually show the statcast animation on today's broadcast instead of just having all the announcers talk about a ball every projection has as being 20' short as if it was a no doubt home run
Statcast isn’t science. It’s demonstrably wrong in this instance. Eat shit you false equivalence peddling asshole.
October 4, 2026 at 1:09 PM
Statcast isn’t science. It’s demonstrably wrong in this instance. Eat shit you false equivalence peddling asshole.
No, it’s not. And these are sub 105. baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_sea...
Statcast Search
Baseball Savant
baseballsavant.mlb.com
October 4, 2026 at 1:04 PM
No, it’s not. And these are sub 105. baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_sea...
It's basically like complaining that a ball you hit at Wrigley with 0% chance on statcast could've been in the basket if the wind had been blowing out instead of in
October 4, 2026 at 1:02 PM
It's basically like complaining that a ball you hit at Wrigley with 0% chance on statcast could've been in the basket if the wind had been blowing out instead of in
If you’re a Padres fan, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s specifically in the rules, and the Statcast data seems pretty conclusive it wasn’t going out. Like, what else is there to complain about! I don’t know why I’m so annoyed by the discourse; there’s no gray it’s very black and white!
October 4, 2026 at 12:54 PM
If you’re a Padres fan, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s specifically in the rules, and the Statcast data seems pretty conclusive it wasn’t going out. Like, what else is there to complain about! I don’t know why I’m so annoyed by the discourse; there’s no gray it’s very black and white!
Using the statcast numbers it comes down to spin but people claiming it would have traveled less distance if it spent more time in the air are saying it was given a large horizontal speed boost from the deflection that I just don't see.
October 4, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Using the statcast numbers it comes down to spin but people claiming it would have traveled less distance if it spent more time in the air are saying it was given a large horizontal speed boost from the deflection that I just don't see.
I interpreted this as him talking about statcast but choosing some poor words to represent it.
October 4, 2026 at 12:38 PM
I interpreted this as him talking about statcast but choosing some poor words to represent it.
As it turns out, Tommy Pham only hit the day's second-most debatable fly ball that Statcast failed to clarify entirely.
White Sox ALDS Game 1 takeaways: Every series starts with Grant Taylor breaking new ground - Sox Machine
If anybody ever uses “pitches per out” as a metric, it’s probably used for a start that went fewer than two innings, similar to the way underperforming players are the ones who have their salaries div...
soxmachine.com
October 4, 2026 at 12:28 PM
As it turns out, Tommy Pham only hit the day's second-most debatable fly ball that Statcast failed to clarify entirely.
If I’m a Padres fan I’m still pretty pissed about last night. But the couple things that stand out to me about that ball are:
1. None of the Statcast data supports that ball traveling far enough to be a homer, and
2. France’s reaction off the bat sure seemed like he thought it was going foul.
1. None of the Statcast data supports that ball traveling far enough to be a homer, and
2. France’s reaction off the bat sure seemed like he thought it was going foul.
October 4, 2026 at 12:11 PM
If I’m a Padres fan I’m still pretty pissed about last night. But the couple things that stand out to me about that ball are:
1. None of the Statcast data supports that ball traveling far enough to be a homer, and
2. France’s reaction off the bat sure seemed like he thought it was going foul.
1. None of the Statcast data supports that ball traveling far enough to be a homer, and
2. France’s reaction off the bat sure seemed like he thought it was going foul.
Not a homer. I assumed it must've been on its way out too but that launch angle and exit velocity has never produced a homer in the Statcast era. If the roof hadn't redirected it it would've just come down like a routine can of corn.
October 4, 2026 at 12:05 PM
Not a homer. I assumed it must've been on its way out too but that launch angle and exit velocity has never produced a homer in the Statcast era. If the roof hadn't redirected it it would've just come down like a routine can of corn.
Waking up to look at box scores. Very bad results last night! But at least I get a good laugh at all the non-mathematicians using “statcast” launch angle & ball speed estimates to write with false certainty. None of it matters. The ball hit a wire, ground rules say it’s in play. It was caught.
October 4, 2026 at 11:52 AM
Waking up to look at box scores. Very bad results last night! But at least I get a good laugh at all the non-mathematicians using “statcast” launch angle & ball speed estimates to write with false certainty. None of it matters. The ball hit a wire, ground rules say it’s in play. It was caught.
yeah i mean when i go on the statcast page and have it look up something i expect MLB's own data to be accurate, yes
October 4, 2026 at 5:46 AM
yeah i mean when i go on the statcast page and have it look up something i expect MLB's own data to be accurate, yes
Yeah well try getting laid in the statcast era
October 4, 2026 at 5:23 AM
Yeah well try getting laid in the statcast era
Every ball in the Statcast era that was (1) pulled (2) EV between 105 and 106 (3) LA between 48.5 and 49.5. The only one that would've cleared the LF fence in MIL (342 feet) was hit at Coors. In my opinion, pretty darn unlikely it would've been a dinger.
October 4, 2026 at 5:19 AM
Every ball in the Statcast era that was (1) pulled (2) EV between 105 and 106 (3) LA between 48.5 and 49.5. The only one that would've cleared the LF fence in MIL (342 feet) was hit at Coors. In my opinion, pretty darn unlikely it would've been a dinger.
Statcast projected Ty France’s roof ball at 325 feet. The left-field wall begins 342 feet from home plate, so MLB’s tracking data indicates it would have fallen short of a home run even without the roof.
October 4, 2026 at 5:18 AM
Statcast projected Ty France’s roof ball at 325 feet. The left-field wall begins 342 feet from home plate, so MLB’s tracking data indicates it would have fallen short of a home run even without the roof.
I can’t get over the fact he filtered out all those base hit results and put little percentages for league wide results and ignores the fact a ball like that has NEVER been hit at that stadium in the statcast era if you ain’t on some real nerd shit mind your business little bro
October 4, 2026 at 5:06 AM
I can’t get over the fact he filtered out all those base hit results and put little percentages for league wide results and ignores the fact a ball like that has NEVER been hit at that stadium in the statcast era if you ain’t on some real nerd shit mind your business little bro