One nice thing about cheap USTs. They are already pricing so many risks that they don't need to adjust as much to ugly inflation prints.... unlike post-COVID
October 14, 2026 at 2:02 PM
One nice thing about cheap USTs. They are already pricing so many risks that they don't need to adjust as much to ugly inflation prints.... unlike post-COVID
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We continue to suggest short 30y USTs.
Entry: 5.36%.
Target: 5.80%.”
Entry: 5.36%.
Target: 5.80%.”
October 6, 2026 at 7:02 PM
BNP PARIBAS: “.. We continue to suggest short 30y USTs.
Entry: 5.36%.
Target: 5.80%.”
Entry: 5.36%.
Target: 5.80%.”
#Japan remains the largest foreign holder of USTs. As #Japanese Govt bond yields rise, USTs may become less attractive to Japanese investors, particularly after the cost of hedging currency risk is taken into account, chart #NordeaMarkets
October 10, 2026 at 6:49 AM
#Japan remains the largest foreign holder of USTs. As #Japanese Govt bond yields rise, USTs may become less attractive to Japanese investors, particularly after the cost of hedging currency risk is taken into account, chart #NordeaMarkets
despite attacks in Riyadh, risk improving as oil retreats; unilateral statement from Trump re 'energy ceasefire' between Ukraine and Russia a surprise to them:
Asia equities ↘️ (KOSPI -3%)
US and Europe equity futures ↗️ small
Oil ↘️ small
Gold ➡️
Bond Yields ➡️ (USTs shut for Columbus Day)
FX $ ➡️
Asia equities ↘️ (KOSPI -3%)
US and Europe equity futures ↗️ small
Oil ↘️ small
Gold ➡️
Bond Yields ➡️ (USTs shut for Columbus Day)
FX $ ➡️
October 12, 2026 at 5:12 AM
despite attacks in Riyadh, risk improving as oil retreats; unilateral statement from Trump re 'energy ceasefire' between Ukraine and Russia a surprise to them:
Asia equities ↘️ (KOSPI -3%)
US and Europe equity futures ↗️ small
Oil ↘️ small
Gold ➡️
Bond Yields ➡️ (USTs shut for Columbus Day)
FX $ ➡️
Asia equities ↘️ (KOSPI -3%)
US and Europe equity futures ↗️ small
Oil ↘️ small
Gold ➡️
Bond Yields ➡️ (USTs shut for Columbus Day)
FX $ ➡️
@ USTS team and ICPSR team pls i am begging on my knees im running out of time here
October 7, 2026 at 3:56 AM
@ USTS team and ICPSR team pls i am begging on my knees im running out of time here
Big investors are snapping up USTs, seeking to lock in the highest yields in decades as they bet borrowing costs can only climb so much further before a months-long sell-off abates, chart @FT www.ft.com/content/6fa7...
October 14, 2026 at 6:18 AM
Big investors are snapping up USTs, seeking to lock in the highest yields in decades as they bet borrowing costs can only climb so much further before a months-long sell-off abates, chart @FT www.ft.com/content/6fa7...
Rates: Japan's banks/insurers bought ¥5.4tn domestic JGBs in 5 months, aggressively sold ¥2.5tn foreign bonds in Sept — repatriation quantified, 30Y JGB 4.27%. Hedged USTs now pay less than domestic bonds. Structural seller of US/EU long-end. UST 10Y 5.21-5.22% vs 5.25% trigger.
October 14, 2026 at 6:17 AM
Rates: Japan's banks/insurers bought ¥5.4tn domestic JGBs in 5 months, aggressively sold ¥2.5tn foreign bonds in Sept — repatriation quantified, 30Y JGB 4.27%. Hedged USTs now pay less than domestic bonds. Structural seller of US/EU long-end. UST 10Y 5.21-5.22% vs 5.25% trigger.
With Le Spread calming down overnight a bit of reprieve for USTs with the belly leading the way. 5s30s back on its steepening trend above 61 bps
October 6, 2026 at 11:52 AM
With Le Spread calming down overnight a bit of reprieve for USTs with the belly leading the way. 5s30s back on its steepening trend above 61 bps
If we decompose credit risk into idiosyncratic factors of a name and more global factors, then USTs will be seen to drive the credit risk of any name due to their ubiquity. The question is how much of the sell-off in European names is indeed driven by UST trading wobbly and whether European credit…
October 8, 2026 at 8:53 AM
If we decompose credit risk into idiosyncratic factors of a name and more global factors, then USTs will be seen to drive the credit risk of any name due to their ubiquity. The question is how much of the sell-off in European names is indeed driven by UST trading wobbly and whether European credit…
The hight number of articles about OATs compared to the scant writing about USTs which are in arguable much bigger trouble and can (and probably will) cause a much more severe financial crisis is silly. Folks should get their priorities straight or they will get caught with their trousers down.
October 6, 2026 at 11:43 AM
The hight number of articles about OATs compared to the scant writing about USTs which are in arguable much bigger trouble and can (and probably will) cause a much more severe financial crisis is silly. Folks should get their priorities straight or they will get caught with their trousers down.
wanna smoke a bowl and listen to deltarune USTs together?
October 1, 2026 at 12:58 AM
wanna smoke a bowl and listen to deltarune USTs together?
Nonsense, that's just not true.
September 30, 2026 at 6:05 PM
Nonsense, that's just not true.
They are floating bonds, at yields higher than USTs.
Apparently this deflates UST secondary market prices.
Apparently this deflates UST secondary market prices.
September 30, 2026 at 11:20 PM
They are floating bonds, at yields higher than USTs.
Apparently this deflates UST secondary market prices.
Apparently this deflates UST secondary market prices.
Last few sessions has seen gilts do a touch better than USTs. Don’t want to overread but it’s an interesting shift in dynamic.
September 29, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Last few sessions has seen gilts do a touch better than USTs. Don’t want to overread but it’s an interesting shift in dynamic.
If you were a HTM buyer of 5Y USTs from ~2011-2021, you most likely got a negative real return for your troubles
(unless you bought right around time shale imploded)
(unless you bought right around time shale imploded)
‘The rolling 10-year annualized total returns of the S&P 500 minus the return from a Treasury portfolio are almost as high as they’ve been in history.’ www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/i... by @michaelsantoli.bsky.social
September 29, 2026 at 4:02 PM
If you were a HTM buyer of 5Y USTs from ~2011-2021, you most likely got a negative real return for your troubles
(unless you bought right around time shale imploded)
(unless you bought right around time shale imploded)
Remember seeing a Bloomberg piece a few months ago about how foreign interest in USTs have died since Iran war/$41 Trillion debt
September 30, 2026 at 6:01 PM
Remember seeing a Bloomberg piece a few months ago about how foreign interest in USTs have died since Iran war/$41 Trillion debt
A new free program is set to protect the drinking water sources for South Whitehall's 11 wells, mapping potential threats and ensuring safety for residents.
Learn more here
#SouthWhitehallLehighandNorthamptonCounties #PA #CitizenPortal #SouthWhitehallWater #EnvironmentalSustainability
Learn more here
#SouthWhitehallLehighandNorthamptonCounties #PA #CitizenPortal #SouthWhitehallWater #EnvironmentalSustainability
Township to pursue free DEP source‑water protection plan for 11 wells
Staff introduced a DEP technical‑assistance program to map and protect the township’s public water sources: identify zone 1/zone 2 protection areas around 11 wells, analyze draw and contamination risks (USTs, agriculture, vehicle leaks), and develop outreach materials and emergency response strategies.
citizenportal.ai
October 2, 2026 at 3:06 AM
A new free program is set to protect the drinking water sources for South Whitehall's 11 wells, mapping potential threats and ensuring safety for residents.
Learn more here
#SouthWhitehallLehighandNorthamptonCounties #PA #CitizenPortal #SouthWhitehallWater #EnvironmentalSustainability
Learn more here
#SouthWhitehallLehighandNorthamptonCounties #PA #CitizenPortal #SouthWhitehallWater #EnvironmentalSustainability
MS Research thinks the market’s concerns that this hiking cycle will be longer than discounted are overblown and that USTs are #oversold.
September 29, 2026 at 5:51 AM
MS Research thinks the market’s concerns that this hiking cycle will be longer than discounted are overblown and that USTs are #oversold.
Our analysis of the 2022 USTS finds that experiencing violence contributes to high rates of suicide thoughts and attempts among transgender respondents.
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
September 28, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Our analysis of the 2022 USTS finds that experiencing violence contributes to high rates of suicide thoughts and attempts among transgender respondents.
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
The fall in the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has been partly driven by a decline in holdings from some foreign Govts. At its peak in the 1970s, foreign Govt reached a ca. 100% share of all foreign demand for USTs. By early 2026, this share had fallen to just above 40%, chart @SFFED
September 29, 2026 at 5:35 AM
The fall in the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has been partly driven by a decline in holdings from some foreign Govts. At its peak in the 1970s, foreign Govt reached a ca. 100% share of all foreign demand for USTs. By early 2026, this share had fallen to just above 40%, chart @SFFED
#Oil prices and USTs are locked in their tightest relationship since the first Gulf war in 1990, as the #MiddleEast conflict increasingly drives the bond market that helps set borrowing costs across the global economy, chart @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/f894...
www.ft.com/content/f894...
September 29, 2026 at 6:02 AM
#Oil prices and USTs are locked in their tightest relationship since the first Gulf war in 1990, as the #MiddleEast conflict increasingly drives the bond market that helps set borrowing costs across the global economy, chart @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/f894...
www.ft.com/content/f894...
Errrr what’s happening to USTs?
September 25, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Errrr what’s happening to USTs?
Removal of forward guidance was bound to have a few hiccups as leveraged types like dealers, HFs, locals etc adjusted to the new Fed. Feels like USTs are in a great place now with a good does of uncertainty premium built across the curve.
September 24, 2026 at 1:29 PM
Removal of forward guidance was bound to have a few hiccups as leveraged types like dealers, HFs, locals etc adjusted to the new Fed. Feels like USTs are in a great place now with a good does of uncertainty premium built across the curve.
Higher bond yields alongside a stronger $ suggest that right now USTs are rate product, reflecting expectations of strong growth. Which means that at these yields, bonds may be recovering their function as a portfolio hedge against those expectations being falsified by negative demand shocks.
September 24, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Higher bond yields alongside a stronger $ suggest that right now USTs are rate product, reflecting expectations of strong growth. Which means that at these yields, bonds may be recovering their function as a portfolio hedge against those expectations being falsified by negative demand shocks.
If you weren't aware, the correlation between 10 year USTs and Brent Crude price is now .96 which is kind of amazing and probably not a sign of a healthy US bond market. Geopolitics is driving markets and the economy.
Global bond sell-off deepens as oil climbs back to $105 as.ft.com/r/d9e5e3b1-6...
Global bond sell-off deepens as oil climbs back to $105
Rising yields strain public finances after brutal sell-off in US Treasuries market
as.ft.com
September 24, 2026 at 11:14 AM
If you weren't aware, the correlation between 10 year USTs and Brent Crude price is now .96 which is kind of amazing and probably not a sign of a healthy US bond market. Geopolitics is driving markets and the economy.