#Oil prices and USTs are locked in their tightest relationship since the first Gulf war in 1990, as the #MiddleEast conflict increasingly drives the bond market that helps set borrowing costs across the global economy, chart @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/f894...
www.ft.com/content/f894...
September 29, 2026 at 6:02 AM
#Oil prices and USTs are locked in their tightest relationship since the first Gulf war in 1990, as the #MiddleEast conflict increasingly drives the bond market that helps set borrowing costs across the global economy, chart @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/f894...
www.ft.com/content/f894...
MS Research thinks the market’s concerns that this hiking cycle will be longer than discounted are overblown and that USTs are #oversold.
September 29, 2026 at 5:51 AM
MS Research thinks the market’s concerns that this hiking cycle will be longer than discounted are overblown and that USTs are #oversold.
The fall in the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has been partly driven by a decline in holdings from some foreign Govts. At its peak in the 1970s, foreign Govt reached a ca. 100% share of all foreign demand for USTs. By early 2026, this share had fallen to just above 40%, chart @SFFED
September 29, 2026 at 5:35 AM
The fall in the share of U.S. debt held by foreigners has been partly driven by a decline in holdings from some foreign Govts. At its peak in the 1970s, foreign Govt reached a ca. 100% share of all foreign demand for USTs. By early 2026, this share had fallen to just above 40%, chart @SFFED
Our analysis of the 2022 USTS finds that experiencing violence contributes to high rates of suicide thoughts and attempts among transgender respondents.
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
September 28, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Our analysis of the 2022 USTS finds that experiencing violence contributes to high rates of suicide thoughts and attempts among transgender respondents.
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
Errrr what’s happening to USTs?
September 25, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Errrr what’s happening to USTs?
Removal of forward guidance was bound to have a few hiccups as leveraged types like dealers, HFs, locals etc adjusted to the new Fed. Feels like USTs are in a great place now with a good does of uncertainty premium built across the curve.
September 24, 2026 at 1:29 PM
Removal of forward guidance was bound to have a few hiccups as leveraged types like dealers, HFs, locals etc adjusted to the new Fed. Feels like USTs are in a great place now with a good does of uncertainty premium built across the curve.
Higher bond yields alongside a stronger $ suggest that right now USTs are rate product, reflecting expectations of strong growth. Which means that at these yields, bonds may be recovering their function as a portfolio hedge against those expectations being falsified by negative demand shocks.
September 24, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Higher bond yields alongside a stronger $ suggest that right now USTs are rate product, reflecting expectations of strong growth. Which means that at these yields, bonds may be recovering their function as a portfolio hedge against those expectations being falsified by negative demand shocks.
If you weren't aware, the correlation between 10 year USTs and Brent Crude price is now .96 which is kind of amazing and probably not a sign of a healthy US bond market. Geopolitics is driving markets and the economy.
Global bond sell-off deepens as oil climbs back to $105 as.ft.com/r/d9e5e3b1-6...
Global bond sell-off deepens as oil climbs back to $105
Rising yields strain public finances after brutal sell-off in US Treasuries market
as.ft.com
September 24, 2026 at 11:14 AM
If you weren't aware, the correlation between 10 year USTs and Brent Crude price is now .96 which is kind of amazing and probably not a sign of a healthy US bond market. Geopolitics is driving markets and the economy.
i'm totally gonna do that when i release my USTs for my songs , imagine someone finds your song ten years later and she goes 'i wanna make a cover' but the instrumental is lost forever ...
September 24, 2026 at 5:05 AM
i'm totally gonna do that when i release my USTs for my songs , imagine someone finds your song ten years later and she goes 'i wanna make a cover' but the instrumental is lost forever ...
There are two problems with that. Firstly when the cash in the TGA account is exhausted, what will they do. It does not change the trajectory of there being too many as well as more and more USTs. Secondly, habitually used stopgap repo facilities have an outsized impact on a bank’s liquidity…
September 23, 2026 at 9:19 AM
There are two problems with that. Firstly when the cash in the TGA account is exhausted, what will they do. It does not change the trajectory of there being too many as well as more and more USTs. Secondly, habitually used stopgap repo facilities have an outsized impact on a bank’s liquidity…
We all have different risk profiles so it doesn't make sense for me to spell out my actual trades. If you trade front end USTs and SOFR futures, you will know where to look
September 21, 2026 at 6:44 PM
We all have different risk profiles so it doesn't make sense for me to spell out my actual trades. If you trade front end USTs and SOFR futures, you will know where to look
Good trades aren't spread evenly in time. So you need to step up when good ones are there. This is one of those times in USTs/SR3s.
September 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Good trades aren't spread evenly in time. So you need to step up when good ones are there. This is one of those times in USTs/SR3s.
Can you imagine what it's like now?
Trans rights ARE kitchen table issues, you spineless fucks.
ustranssurvey.org/report/jobs-...
Trans rights ARE kitchen table issues, you spineless fucks.
ustranssurvey.org/report/jobs-...
September 20, 2026 at 9:19 PM
Can you imagine what it's like now?
Trans rights ARE kitchen table issues, you spineless fucks.
ustranssurvey.org/report/jobs-...
Trans rights ARE kitchen table issues, you spineless fucks.
ustranssurvey.org/report/jobs-...
AP Style sez "Treasurys" for USTs. This is, clearly, completely deranged.
@apstylebook.com, who do we have to talk to about this
@apstylebook.com, who do we have to talk to about this
Grammatically, it’s Treasurys. But that just looks stupid, so let’s all agree to write Treasuries.
September 18, 2026 at 5:27 PM
AP Style sez "Treasurys" for USTs. This is, clearly, completely deranged.
@apstylebook.com, who do we have to talk to about this
@apstylebook.com, who do we have to talk to about this
During Suicide Prevention Month, we are reminded that transgender respondents to the 2022 USTS who had thought about moving because of hostile policies but did not were more likely to consider suicide than those who did move.
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
September 18, 2026 at 4:30 PM
During Suicide Prevention Month, we are reminded that transgender respondents to the 2022 USTS who had thought about moving because of hostile policies but did not were more likely to consider suicide than those who did move.
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
Read the full report: tinyurl.com/Trans-Suicide
UK holdings of USTs does not mean the UK Govt is accumulating nearly $1 trillion of USTs.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
September 18, 2026 at 6:03 AM
UK holdings of USTs does not mean the UK Govt is accumulating nearly $1 trillion of USTs.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
UK holdings of USTs does not mean the UK Govt is accumulating nearly $1trn of Treasuries.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
September 18, 2026 at 6:02 AM
UK holdings of USTs does not mean the UK Govt is accumulating nearly $1trn of Treasuries.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
The UST's own data explicitly warn that country attribution is distorted by custodial bias, and that this is particularly important for the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean financial centres.
#China ’s holdings of USTs have fallen to the lowest since Aug 2008, underlining a shift in #Beijing ’s management of its reserves and a deepening rift b/w the world’s two largest economies, chart @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
September 18, 2026 at 5:46 AM
#China ’s holdings of USTs have fallen to the lowest since Aug 2008, underlining a shift in #Beijing ’s management of its reserves and a deepening rift b/w the world’s two largest economies, chart @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
Yeah and if the Fed is not serious today then Japan will have good reason to start dumping their USTs… 🫠
September 16, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Yeah and if the Fed is not serious today then Japan will have good reason to start dumping their USTs… 🫠
Not my area of expertise but is there something in the role of USTs in capital requirements for banks, and the huge rise in share of private lending - for which there are no such requirements?
September 16, 2026 at 8:22 AM
Not my area of expertise but is there something in the role of USTs in capital requirements for banks, and the huge rise in share of private lending - for which there are no such requirements?
Yeah. The declining spread between USTs and AAA credit is an interesting observation. Not sure why that is. Wonder whether some of it owes to the Fed becoming a liquidity provider of last resort for credit during Covid.
September 16, 2026 at 7:57 AM
Yeah. The declining spread between USTs and AAA credit is an interesting observation. Not sure why that is. Wonder whether some of it owes to the Fed becoming a liquidity provider of last resort for credit during Covid.
Ignorant here, but surely the function of USTs as the most liquid of liquid assets also means it plays specific roles in a whole host of things (liability management etc) and that volatility is a fucking pain for those kinds of roles.
September 16, 2026 at 7:41 AM
Ignorant here, but surely the function of USTs as the most liquid of liquid assets also means it plays specific roles in a whole host of things (liability management etc) and that volatility is a fucking pain for those kinds of roles.
3/ Synchronized tightening lands: BOJ expected to hike to 1.25% Sep 18 (3-decade high); Tokyo repeatedly selling USTs to defend the yen = direct long-end supply. FT: "AI debt vs Treasuries" — imperfect substitution at best. Funding-spiral thesis live.
September 16, 2026 at 7:02 AM
3/ Synchronized tightening lands: BOJ expected to hike to 1.25% Sep 18 (3-decade high); Tokyo repeatedly selling USTs to defend the yen = direct long-end supply. FT: "AI debt vs Treasuries" — imperfect substitution at best. Funding-spiral thesis live.
I think every outcome is a banter outcome.
They hike, market has priced it already and is fine, DJT loses his cool. Scenes.
They hold, DJT still unhappy because no cut, markets crap out because had priced a hike and USTs act like a credit product now. Scenes.
They hike, market has priced it already and is fine, DJT loses his cool. Scenes.
They hold, DJT still unhappy because no cut, markets crap out because had priced a hike and USTs act like a credit product now. Scenes.
September 15, 2026 at 7:36 PM
I think every outcome is a banter outcome.
They hike, market has priced it already and is fine, DJT loses his cool. Scenes.
They hold, DJT still unhappy because no cut, markets crap out because had priced a hike and USTs act like a credit product now. Scenes.
They hike, market has priced it already and is fine, DJT loses his cool. Scenes.
They hold, DJT still unhappy because no cut, markets crap out because had priced a hike and USTs act like a credit product now. Scenes.
🧵 Is a US diesel export ban about to "blow up" the US Treasury market?A viral theory claims the US is halting diesel exports, which will force countries like Japan to dump US Treasuries (USTs) to pay for energy.
The short answer: No, this is false.
Let’s look at the actual facts. 👇
The short answer: No, this is false.
Let’s look at the actual facts. 👇
September 15, 2026 at 4:52 PM
🧵 Is a US diesel export ban about to "blow up" the US Treasury market?A viral theory claims the US is halting diesel exports, which will force countries like Japan to dump US Treasuries (USTs) to pay for energy.
The short answer: No, this is false.
Let’s look at the actual facts. 👇
The short answer: No, this is false.
Let’s look at the actual facts. 👇