The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended 1.5°C carbon reduction target, requiring powerful enforcement from major economies. China, the largest CO2 emitter, is facing severe difficulties for both variable renewable accommodation and decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors. Hydrogen, as a critical green energy carrier bridging renewable to end-users, faces significant obstacles in real-world deployment such as costly transportation, storage and fuel-cell adoption. Affordable and coordinated hydrogen deployment plan to accelerate the carbon-neutral transition remains ambiguous. Here, we present cost-effective carbon-neutral transition pathways for entire energy economy of China emphasizing the significant role of hydrogen and derivatives as green energy carriers, considering high-resolution renewable deployments, hourly power system operations in 29 provincial regions, over 46,000 rail/road/marine/pipeline transfer routing of hydrogen derivatives, process-level fuel adoption strategies in all end-use sectors. Results show that incorporating hydrogen and derivatives can reduce the overall transition cost by $ 10.7 trillion compared with renewable and electrification pathways, achieving negative carbon abatement costs ($-6.15/ton), eliminating external oil import expenses, equivalent to over 50% of China trade surplus (2023 level)1, significantly boosting employment and economic growth. Hydrogen derivative based transition pathway offers a vital direction for affordable and secure decarbonization for China and beyond under volatile international energy markets...

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Southeast Asia’s energy-related emissions are projected to be around 22 per cent above 2024 levels by 2050 under the lowest-emissions scenario, according to the region’s official energy outlook. The ninth Asean Energy Outlook (AEO), produced by the Asean Centre for Energy (ACE), projects regional energy demand, supply and emissions to 2060. ACE is an intergovernmental organisation that supports energy cooperation among Asean member states. Its latest and ninth edition of the outlook, AEO9, launched on 8 October and endorsed by Asean energy ministers at their annual meeting in Manila, examines three scenarios based on current trends, national energy policies and coordinated regional measures. Unlike the previous edition, published in 2024, the report does not include a scenario built around member states’ net-zero pledges. Seven of the 10 countries covered by the outlook have pledged to reach net zero or carbon neutrality by 2050. ACE told Eco-Business that member states agreed by consensus to replace the pledge-based scenario, and that the latest scenarios do not use national net-zero dates as targets. The lowest-emissions pathway, the Asean Coordinated Transition Scenario (ACTS), builds on national energy policies with faster electrification, tighter energy efficiency standards and more cross-border power trade. The other two scenarios...

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This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC3701000, Task 5), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB0760402), the Tsinghua-Toyota Joint Research Institute Inter-disciplinary Program, the specific research fund of The Innovation Platform for Academicians of Hainan Province (YSPTZX202512), and the Foundation Project of CMA-EML (nyqxms20250204). We thank the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) for supporting the nationwide observation network and providing hourly surface solar radiation data. We also acknowledge the technical support of the National Large Scientific and Technological Infrastructure “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility” (https://cstr.cn/31134.02.EL). During the preparation of this manuscript, the authors used ChatGPT (OpenAI) to assist with English-language editing and the development and refinement of Python code used for data processing. The AI tool was not used to independently interpret the results or formulate the scientific conclusions. The authors take full responsibility for the content of the publication. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a...

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