Lab (8 points behind GE24)
Con (stuck at GE24 level)
RUK (7 points ahead)
LD (1 point behind)
Grn (4 points ahead)
Res (new party)
Reactionaries: 48%
Con (stuck at GE24 level)
RUK (7 points ahead)
LD (1 point behind)
Grn (4 points ahead)
Res (new party)
Reactionaries: 48%
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 26% (-1)
CON: 24% (+2)
RFM: 21% (+1)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
RES: 3% (-1)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 1-2 Nov.
Changes w/ 25-26 Oct.
LAB: 26% (-1)
CON: 24% (+2)
RFM: 21% (+1)
LDM: 11% (=)
GRN: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
RES: 3% (-1)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 1-2 Nov.
Changes w/ 25-26 Oct.
November 3, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Lab (8 points behind GE24)
Con (stuck at GE24 level)
RUK (7 points ahead)
LD (1 point behind)
Grn (4 points ahead)
Res (new party)
Reactionaries: 48%
Con (stuck at GE24 level)
RUK (7 points ahead)
LD (1 point behind)
Grn (4 points ahead)
Res (new party)
Reactionaries: 48%
I see a lot of complaint that the reporting makes too much of margin-of-error movement.
That’s fair but as the saying goes, ‘the trend is your friend’:
SF 21 (+2.0 since GE24)
FG 18 (-2.8)
FF 16 (-5.9)
SD 11 (+6.2)
Aon 9 (+5.1)
II 7 (+3.4)
Lab 3 (-1.7)
PBPS 3 (+0.2)
Greens 3
Inds/others 10 (-5.5)
That’s fair but as the saying goes, ‘the trend is your friend’:
SF 21 (+2.0 since GE24)
FG 18 (-2.8)
FF 16 (-5.9)
SD 11 (+6.2)
Aon 9 (+5.1)
II 7 (+3.4)
Lab 3 (-1.7)
PBPS 3 (+0.2)
Greens 3
Inds/others 10 (-5.5)
POLL: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks
(Oct 30, MoE 2.9%)
Sinn Féin 21 (+2 in four weeks)
Fine Gael 18
Fianna Fáil 16 (-2)
Social Democrats 11
Aontú 9 (+1)
Ind Ireland 7 (+2)
Labour 3 (-1)
Greens 3
PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1)
Inds/others 10 (-2)
(Oct 30, MoE 2.9%)
Sinn Féin 21 (+2 in four weeks)
Fine Gael 18
Fianna Fáil 16 (-2)
Social Democrats 11
Aontú 9 (+1)
Ind Ireland 7 (+2)
Labour 3 (-1)
Greens 3
PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1)
Inds/others 10 (-2)
Fianna Fáil support slumps as Aontú hits another record high
No budget bounce for coalition parties in latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll
www.independent.ie
November 1, 2026 at 9:19 AM
I see a lot of complaint that the reporting makes too much of margin-of-error movement.
That’s fair but as the saying goes, ‘the trend is your friend’:
SF 21 (+2.0 since GE24)
FG 18 (-2.8)
FF 16 (-5.9)
SD 11 (+6.2)
Aon 9 (+5.1)
II 7 (+3.4)
Lab 3 (-1.7)
PBPS 3 (+0.2)
Greens 3
Inds/others 10 (-5.5)
That’s fair but as the saying goes, ‘the trend is your friend’:
SF 21 (+2.0 since GE24)
FG 18 (-2.8)
FF 16 (-5.9)
SD 11 (+6.2)
Aon 9 (+5.1)
II 7 (+3.4)
Lab 3 (-1.7)
PBPS 3 (+0.2)
Greens 3
Inds/others 10 (-5.5)
Presumably SF aiming to balance 4 ahead of SDLP, which is a tough ask, especially as Alliance to SDLP, or vice versa, likely to be strongest transfers. Alliance were ahead of UUP at AE22, and just behind at GE24, so hard to see UUP making quota, and TUV not transfer friendly.
November 3, 2026 at 12:41 AM
Presumably SF aiming to balance 4 ahead of SDLP, which is a tough ask, especially as Alliance to SDLP, or vice versa, likely to be strongest transfers. Alliance were ahead of UUP at AE22, and just behind at GE24, so hard to see UUP making quota, and TUV not transfer friendly.
£100 off the electric bill that LABOUR promised to REDUCE by £300 in their GE24 campaign, that is now £700 MORE than it was then 🤪
🇬🇧 uk westminster at its best, robbing Scotland of our massive energy resources, whilst giving us just about the highest prices in Europe
🏴🇪🇺😎
🇬🇧 uk westminster at its best, robbing Scotland of our massive energy resources, whilst giving us just about the highest prices in Europe
🏴🇪🇺😎
October 31, 2026 at 2:47 PM
£100 off the electric bill that LABOUR promised to REDUCE by £300 in their GE24 campaign, that is now £700 MORE than it was then 🤪
🇬🇧 uk westminster at its best, robbing Scotland of our massive energy resources, whilst giving us just about the highest prices in Europe
🏴🇪🇺😎
🇬🇧 uk westminster at its best, robbing Scotland of our massive energy resources, whilst giving us just about the highest prices in Europe
🏴🇪🇺😎
I think Dave is implying Starmer was such a popular (at least as popular as Burham) PM when he won GE24 and his ratings dropped because of his PMship/Right wing press attack/being unrelatable
October 25, 2026 at 9:40 AM
I think Dave is implying Starmer was such a popular (at least as popular as Burham) PM when he won GE24 and his ratings dropped because of his PMship/Right wing press attack/being unrelatable
I think what I just still find so mind boggling about that is some of those most vocally supportive are also in the "Labour must be destroyed" camp (a sentiment I certainly sympathise with given... everything) but also just refuse to see how they've helped drive Green support to post-GE24 lows
October 21, 2026 at 12:48 PM
I think what I just still find so mind boggling about that is some of those most vocally supportive are also in the "Labour must be destroyed" camp (a sentiment I certainly sympathise with given... everything) but also just refuse to see how they've helped drive Green support to post-GE24 lows
Jim O'Callaghan and many of his government colleagues are reasonably experienced politicians, so the only logical explanation for them fucking things up this badly is hubris. reckoning they have the numbers since GE24 to spend 2-3 years acting with impunity
Major escalation of legal aid dispute as solicitors set to withdraw all criminal defence services from Monday www.independent.ie/irish-news/c...
Major escalation of legal aid dispute as solicitors set to withdraw all criminal defence services from Monday
Striking solicitors to withdraw ‘all criminal defence services’ in move that has capacity to cripple courts in most parts of the country
www.independent.ie
October 16, 2026 at 11:17 PM
Jim O'Callaghan and many of his government colleagues are reasonably experienced politicians, so the only logical explanation for them fucking things up this badly is hubris. reckoning they have the numbers since GE24 to spend 2-3 years acting with impunity
For anyone interested, I wrote a long thread here about how Ireland’s history of emigration is deployed in debates around immigration in the run-up to #ge24, comparing it to shifts in political rhetoric around Britain’s history of immigration:
bsky.app/profile/marc...
bsky.app/profile/marc...
Tonight's Upfront with Katie Hannon promises an 'immigration special' with a panel of #ge24 candidates who will answer audience questions on the issue.
From a research POV, I'll be looking out for ways in which (particularly historical) emigration from Ireland is used to frame the issue. A thread:
From a research POV, I'll be looking out for ways in which (particularly historical) emigration from Ireland is used to frame the issue. A thread:
October 10, 2026 at 9:47 AM
For anyone interested, I wrote a long thread here about how Ireland’s history of emigration is deployed in debates around immigration in the run-up to #ge24, comparing it to shifts in political rhetoric around Britain’s history of immigration:
bsky.app/profile/marc...
bsky.app/profile/marc...
Don't be disheartened. Labour's resounding victory at GE24 on 33.7% was achieved by winning 0.9% more across the UK than Polanski achieved in this By-election. So it was an impressive performance by the Green Party of E & W. Labour's machinery is difficult to beat, but you put a big dent in it.
October 9, 2026 at 8:18 AM
Don't be disheartened. Labour's resounding victory at GE24 on 33.7% was achieved by winning 0.9% more across the UK than Polanski achieved in this By-election. So it was an impressive performance by the Green Party of E & W. Labour's machinery is difficult to beat, but you put a big dent in it.
I don't think that simply treading water is a good outcome for a party leader. The Greens had the extra manpower for a byelection that they wouldn't have had in either GE24 or the local elections.
October 9, 2026 at 6:58 AM
I don't think that simply treading water is a good outcome for a party leader. The Greens had the extra manpower for a byelection that they wouldn't have had in either GE24 or the local elections.
Not wishing to sound pedantic but no. Votes were down on GE24.
October 9, 2026 at 10:54 AM
Not wishing to sound pedantic but no. Votes were down on GE24.
The graphic used in this article is appalling. Why on earth would you not show the GE24 independent when the lack of said independent was obviously the source of most of the Green gain?
It is very LibDem.
There. I said it.
It is very LibDem.
There. I said it.
October 9, 2026 at 2:25 AM
The graphic used in this article is appalling. Why on earth would you not show the GE24 independent when the lack of said independent was obviously the source of most of the Green gain?
It is very LibDem.
There. I said it.
It is very LibDem.
There. I said it.
8:21am EDT: Moon in Virgo squares Uranus in Gemini and semisextiles Mars in Leo. Illumination, creativity, expansion, risk, fresh air. Mars in Leo is urging his subjects, the Scorpio planets, to unbury their secrets. 05°Vi24' D 05°Ge24' R 05°Vi26' D 05°Le26' D
October 7, 2026 at 12:21 PM
8:21am EDT: Moon in Virgo squares Uranus in Gemini and semisextiles Mars in Leo. Illumination, creativity, expansion, risk, fresh air. Mars in Leo is urging his subjects, the Scorpio planets, to unbury their secrets. 05°Vi24' D 05°Ge24' R 05°Vi26' D 05°Le26' D
6:41am EDT: Mars in Leo sextile Uranus in Gemini. Huzzah! You're riding high on the heels of a recent victory. Don't look now: but you're covering more territory, faster, than you did the last time that you tried this. 05°Le24' D 05°Ge24' R
October 7, 2026 at 10:41 AM
6:41am EDT: Mars in Leo sextile Uranus in Gemini. Huzzah! You're riding high on the heels of a recent victory. Don't look now: but you're covering more territory, faster, than you did the last time that you tried this. 05°Le24' D 05°Ge24' R
Louie French was often inviting Jenrick to his constituency. They even came door knocking in my street at the GE24.
October 2, 2026 at 9:51 AM
Louie French was often inviting Jenrick to his constituency. They even came door knocking in my street at the GE24.
If it's not, why does the Palestinian flag dominate the party's campaign literature? Why did Denyer put it front and centre in GE24?
October 2, 2026 at 3:54 PM
If it's not, why does the Palestinian flag dominate the party's campaign literature? Why did Denyer put it front and centre in GE24?
Have the courage to follow your own instincts. 08°Ge24' D 08°Sc24' D
October 1, 2026 at 7:34 AM
Have the courage to follow your own instincts. 08°Ge24' D 08°Sc24' D
Jam Tomorrow isn't a credible strategy but so Labour: I don't understand why people want to believe it and change their vote. Voters in Scotland gave Starmer the benefit of the doubt in GE24 it was a disaster for Scotland & the UK as a whole.
Voters should stick with SNP Plaid Greens even Libdems.
Voters should stick with SNP Plaid Greens even Libdems.
October 1, 2026 at 10:31 AM
Jam Tomorrow isn't a credible strategy but so Labour: I don't understand why people want to believe it and change their vote. Voters in Scotland gave Starmer the benefit of the doubt in GE24 it was a disaster for Scotland & the UK as a whole.
Voters should stick with SNP Plaid Greens even Libdems.
Voters should stick with SNP Plaid Greens even Libdems.
In 3 years maybe. I think the wording is exquisitely crafted to make people believe while not offering anything.
Let's not forget how Starmers EU position was spun pre ge24.
Don't get your HOPEs up AGAIN is the conference slogan
Let's not forget how Starmers EU position was spun pre ge24.
Don't get your HOPEs up AGAIN is the conference slogan
September 30, 2026 at 7:24 AM
In 3 years maybe. I think the wording is exquisitely crafted to make people believe while not offering anything.
Let's not forget how Starmers EU position was spun pre ge24.
Don't get your HOPEs up AGAIN is the conference slogan
Let's not forget how Starmers EU position was spun pre ge24.
Don't get your HOPEs up AGAIN is the conference slogan
Another drawback of big 💰 in politics. For GE24 Starmer's Labour accepted 💰 some from the 🇮🇱Lobby.
McSweeney (& Mandelson?) recruited 'professional' candidates, with little political/local experience & were able to throw big 💰 at their campaigns. Elected MPs then owe loyalty to PM & 🇮🇱 not to voters.
McSweeney (& Mandelson?) recruited 'professional' candidates, with little political/local experience & were able to throw big 💰 at their campaigns. Elected MPs then owe loyalty to PM & 🇮🇱 not to voters.
September 28, 2026 at 9:01 AM
Another drawback of big 💰 in politics. For GE24 Starmer's Labour accepted 💰 some from the 🇮🇱Lobby.
McSweeney (& Mandelson?) recruited 'professional' candidates, with little political/local experience & were able to throw big 💰 at their campaigns. Elected MPs then owe loyalty to PM & 🇮🇱 not to voters.
McSweeney (& Mandelson?) recruited 'professional' candidates, with little political/local experience & were able to throw big 💰 at their campaigns. Elected MPs then owe loyalty to PM & 🇮🇱 not to voters.
I think it is highly plausible that it is accurate. Our constituency vote in GE24 was half of that we received in the locals that May. And of course the turnout was double.
September 28, 2026 at 4:31 PM
I think it is highly plausible that it is accurate. Our constituency vote in GE24 was half of that we received in the locals that May. And of course the turnout was double.
Obviously JLPartners can't be used to accuse other polling companies. The use of polling 3, or more likely 2 years out is surely to help parties understand where they need to target resources in the run up. Its how the Lib Dems knew which seats to target way before GE24.
September 27, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Obviously JLPartners can't be used to accuse other polling companies. The use of polling 3, or more likely 2 years out is surely to help parties understand where they need to target resources in the run up. Its how the Lib Dems knew which seats to target way before GE24.
Burnham has no real chance of getting pro-EU voters to vote for Labour's red lines and pro-Brexit stance.
Although Labour profited massively from 'tactical' voting to oust the Tories at GE24, they then basically spent the next two years saying 'red lines' to every EU question.
Voluntary red lines
Although Labour profited massively from 'tactical' voting to oust the Tories at GE24, they then basically spent the next two years saying 'red lines' to every EU question.
Voluntary red lines
September 24, 2026 at 11:02 AM
Burnham has no real chance of getting pro-EU voters to vote for Labour's red lines and pro-Brexit stance.
Although Labour profited massively from 'tactical' voting to oust the Tories at GE24, they then basically spent the next two years saying 'red lines' to every EU question.
Voluntary red lines
Although Labour profited massively from 'tactical' voting to oust the Tories at GE24, they then basically spent the next two years saying 'red lines' to every EU question.
Voluntary red lines
2 out of 5 MPs are currently Tory down here
Pre GE24, every seat was Tory
Pre GE24, every seat was Tory
September 22, 2026 at 2:40 PM
2 out of 5 MPs are currently Tory down here
Pre GE24, every seat was Tory
Pre GE24, every seat was Tory
There was a big green and anti Starmer Feinstein vote in GE24. Not impossible but also not that likely.
September 18, 2026 at 5:06 PM
There was a big green and anti Starmer Feinstein vote in GE24. Not impossible but also not that likely.