This ultra aggressive ICE stuff is edging into geopolitical risk territory.
1/ South Korea's government has announced that it is launching an investigation into human rights abuses said to have been carried out by the United States' ICE agency against South Korean workers deported from Georgia, following further damaging testimony from the deportees. ⬇️
September 16, 2025 at 9:37 PM
This ultra aggressive ICE stuff is edging into geopolitical risk territory.
GOLDMAN: “.. higher geopolitical risk weighs on hiring and capex, and .. when shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously, the impact is roughly twice as large.” 👀
March 12, 2026 at 10:30 AM
GOLDMAN: “.. higher geopolitical risk weighs on hiring and capex, and .. when shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously, the impact is roughly twice as large.” 👀
President Donald "Geopolitical Risk" Trump
August 1, 2026 at 6:12 PM
President Donald "Geopolitical Risk" Trump
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century.
March 18, 2026 at 12:48 AM
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century.
It has all the geopolitical sophistication of a child playing "Risk".
December 5, 2025 at 5:14 AM
It has all the geopolitical sophistication of a child playing "Risk".
(AXIOS) - Economists are considering a new inflation risk: geopolitical tensions that keep upward pressure on prices, especially on the energy front.
@axios.com
www.axios.com/newsletters/...
@axios.com
www.axios.com/newsletters/...
August 18, 2025 at 4:55 PM
(AXIOS) - Economists are considering a new inflation risk: geopolitical tensions that keep upward pressure on prices, especially on the energy front.
@axios.com
www.axios.com/newsletters/...
@axios.com
www.axios.com/newsletters/...
I analyzed fifty S&P 500 10-Ks.
The data is wild.
I scanned for 8 risk themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical risk, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession.
Morgan Stanley has 221 mentions of geopolitical risk.
Citigroup has 269 mentions. Bank of America has 102.
The data is wild.
I scanned for 8 risk themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical risk, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession.
Morgan Stanley has 221 mentions of geopolitical risk.
Citigroup has 269 mentions. Bank of America has 102.
April 5, 2026 at 10:34 PM
I analyzed fifty S&P 500 10-Ks.
The data is wild.
I scanned for 8 risk themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical risk, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession.
Morgan Stanley has 221 mentions of geopolitical risk.
Citigroup has 269 mentions. Bank of America has 102.
The data is wild.
I scanned for 8 risk themes: tariffs, war, geopolitical risk, oil/energy, sanctions, supply chain, interest rates, and recession.
Morgan Stanley has 221 mentions of geopolitical risk.
Citigroup has 269 mentions. Bank of America has 102.
The biggest geopolitical risk emanating from America for the EU/UK and other allies isn't Trump's erratic foreign policy so much as incompetence, corruption and authoritarian overreach by the Trump administration plunging the US into economic and political chaos
Breaking News: The Supreme Court agreed to allow the Trump administration to proceed with dismantling the Education Department by firing thousands of workers.
Supreme Court Clears the Way for Trump’s Cuts to the Education Department
Lawyers for the Trump administration had asked the justices to block a lower court order that directed officials to reinstate thousands of fired employees.
trib.al
July 14, 2025 at 8:07 PM
The biggest geopolitical risk emanating from America for the EU/UK and other allies isn't Trump's erratic foreign policy so much as incompetence, corruption and authoritarian overreach by the Trump administration plunging the US into economic and political chaos
Musk talking about "geopolitical risk" again. Says lots of companies are "asleep at the wheel" with regard to this mysterious geopolitical risk. He brags about Tesla's world-class refinery and cathode plant, while begging others to build them. He says they are being built out of necessity.
January 28, 2026 at 11:38 PM
Musk talking about "geopolitical risk" again. Says lots of companies are "asleep at the wheel" with regard to this mysterious geopolitical risk. He brags about Tesla's world-class refinery and cathode plant, while begging others to build them. He says they are being built out of necessity.
Moody's Downgrades Israel Credit Rating On High 'Geopolitical Risk'
Moody's Downgrades Israel Credit Rating On High 'Geopolitical Risk'
Ratings agency Moody's downgraded Israel's credit rating Friday, citing heightened geopolitical risks as its conflict with Hezbollah worsened and prospects for a ceasefire in Gaza receded.
www.barrons.com
September 27, 2024 at 10:50 PM
Moody's Downgrades Israel Credit Rating On High 'Geopolitical Risk'
Trump now blowing up the US economy. Good work all round.
Recession odds climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath the surface
Economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market slump.
www.cnbc.com
March 25, 2026 at 10:20 AM
Trump now blowing up the US economy. Good work all round.
then surely you always take into account *all* of an investment’s variables like local and geopolitical risk
February 2, 2026 at 2:36 PM
then surely you always take into account *all* of an investment’s variables like local and geopolitical risk
Anyone who contributed to this event - the politicians and journalists who normalised him or submitted to his narratives, around the world - should hang their fucking heads in shame. They've put us in the most dangerous geopolitical situation for a generation and left a people at risk of genocide.
April 7, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Anyone who contributed to this event - the politicians and journalists who normalised him or submitted to his narratives, around the world - should hang their fucking heads in shame. They've put us in the most dangerous geopolitical situation for a generation and left a people at risk of genocide.
Trying to explain to senior EU and UK analysts and officials that the fixation on seizing Canada among senior MAGA figures is a genuinely serious geopolitical risk is one of the more frustrating things I've faced recently
July 8, 2026 at 1:50 PM
Trying to explain to senior EU and UK analysts and officials that the fixation on seizing Canada among senior MAGA figures is a genuinely serious geopolitical risk is one of the more frustrating things I've faced recently
The Balkans of course famous for being irrelevant to questions of geopolitical risk
September 19, 2026 at 3:53 PM
The Balkans of course famous for being irrelevant to questions of geopolitical risk
Yes. I'm surprised the Geopolitical Risk Index (another fascinating data source, www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm) isn't reflecting that - just yet. But noticeable uptick in their threat category.
Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index
www.matteoiacoviello.com
February 16, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Yes. I'm surprised the Geopolitical Risk Index (another fascinating data source, www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm) isn't reflecting that - just yet. But noticeable uptick in their threat category.
Why oil? Because worsening war news tends to threaten energy supply. That pushes oil prices up. So rising oil isn’t just about petrol; it’s a signal about geopolitical risk hitting the global economy.
May 14, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Why oil? Because worsening war news tends to threaten energy supply. That pushes oil prices up. So rising oil isn’t just about petrol; it’s a signal about geopolitical risk hitting the global economy.
I never thought I would have to take steps to mitigate against geopolitical risk, I say, from my global hedge fund
"The trade was not that you were getting exposed to geopolitics when moving to Dubai."
March 2, 2026 at 3:57 PM
I never thought I would have to take steps to mitigate against geopolitical risk, I say, from my global hedge fund
Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, retail gas & diesel prices could remain elevated for several months. That’s because oil traders price in ongoing geopolitical risk, shipping insurance costs and fears of renewed attacks. High prices could last much longer if oil infrastructure was damaged.
May 7, 2026 at 2:57 AM
Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, retail gas & diesel prices could remain elevated for several months. That’s because oil traders price in ongoing geopolitical risk, shipping insurance costs and fears of renewed attacks. High prices could last much longer if oil infrastructure was damaged.
Probably feeling vindicated today about his geopolitical risk is Mark Carney
Nearly 2 million Canadians are of Chinese descent, many with family and friends across the Pacific.
As we renew this relationship, China has committed to soon allowing Canadians to visit without a visa.
As we renew this relationship, China has committed to soon allowing Canadians to visit without a visa.
January 17, 2026 at 7:46 PM
Probably feeling vindicated today about his geopolitical risk is Mark Carney
The news out of the Middle East might have seemed less dire lately, but oil futures are now basically as pessimistic as they've ever been. This could be a concern that the current war continues, or it could be concern about a rising risk of future geopolitical shocks.
April 24, 2026 at 3:23 AM
The news out of the Middle East might have seemed less dire lately, but oil futures are now basically as pessimistic as they've ever been. This could be a concern that the current war continues, or it could be concern about a rising risk of future geopolitical shocks.
JPMORGAN:
".. Our base case remains unchanged, inventory pressures should drive a reopening within weeks, though the process will be incremental and prone to setbacks. Even with a deal, rebuilding inventories and lingering geopolitical risk are likely to keep Brent near $100/bbl through year-end."
".. Our base case remains unchanged, inventory pressures should drive a reopening within weeks, though the process will be incremental and prone to setbacks. Even with a deal, rebuilding inventories and lingering geopolitical risk are likely to keep Brent near $100/bbl through year-end."
June 1, 2026 at 12:34 PM
JPMORGAN:
".. Our base case remains unchanged, inventory pressures should drive a reopening within weeks, though the process will be incremental and prone to setbacks. Even with a deal, rebuilding inventories and lingering geopolitical risk are likely to keep Brent near $100/bbl through year-end."
".. Our base case remains unchanged, inventory pressures should drive a reopening within weeks, though the process will be incremental and prone to setbacks. Even with a deal, rebuilding inventories and lingering geopolitical risk are likely to keep Brent near $100/bbl through year-end."
Crisis and intelligence consultants Warren Risk: “In 2025 geopolitical security risks remain high and we anticipate a broadening terrorism risk in Northwest Africa, Europe and the US, increasing the need for travel risk awareness and precautions.”
January 1, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Crisis and intelligence consultants Warren Risk: “In 2025 geopolitical security risks remain high and we anticipate a broadening terrorism risk in Northwest Africa, Europe and the US, increasing the need for travel risk awareness and precautions.”
RAPIDAN: “.. a weak but still-functioning regime is more likely to lean into asymmetric attacks on regional energy infrastructure and shipping lanes as a tool of survival, sustaining the geopolitical risk premium for months rather than weeks.”
March 17, 2026 at 10:10 PM
RAPIDAN: “.. a weak but still-functioning regime is more likely to lean into asymmetric attacks on regional energy infrastructure and shipping lanes as a tool of survival, sustaining the geopolitical risk premium for months rather than weeks.”