We used the Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Income Security microsimulation model to estimate the combined impact of key benefit and tax policy changes in …

A microsimulation model was used to project clinical and economic outcomes from injection drug use in the United States. Over 10 years, 2.0 million injecti

People who inject drugs (PWID) face complications from injection drug use (IDU), including drug overdoses and infections (HIV, hepatitis C virus [HCV], and other serious injection-related infections). Decision makers need estimates of clinical outcomes and costs to plan health service programs and allocate resources.MethodWe developed a microsimulation model, the Multimorbidity model to Reduce Infections Associated with Drug use (MYRIAD), with inputs derived from published data. We projected key clinical outcomes and costs in PWID in the United States from 2025 to 2034: new HIV and HCV cases, hospitalizations for severe injection-related infections (eg, endocarditis), and deaths from drug overdose and injection-related infections. We varied multiple parameters in deterministic sensitivity analyses and varied overdose death risk in scenario analyses.ResultsFor 3.3 million PWID over 10 years, we estimate that 29 715 new HIV infections, 218 186 new HCV infections or reinfections, and 1 714 773 hospitalizations from severe injection-related infections will occur. We project 487 249 deaths from IDU: 348 650 from drug overdose, 37 658 from severe injection-related infections, 90 486 from HCV, and 10 455 from HIV. Healthcare costs from IDU are projected to exceed $565 billion, with $431 billion from drug use and $135 billion from injection-related infections.ConclusionsThe United States will face increasing IDU-related deaths and healthcare costs over the next decade with current levels of care. Although deaths are driven primarily by drug overdose, many are from injection-related infections. Interventions that concurrently prevent and treat drug overdose and injection-related infections are urgently needed to curb morbidity and mortality among PWID.

Measuring generational overlap, i.e. the extent to which individuals share their lives with relatives from other generations, is essential for examining how demographic changes affect family structures and intergenerational relationships over time. This research uses Socsim microsimulation and Swedish fertility and mortality data (1751–2100) to estimate the probability of having living parents, grandparents and great-grandparents throughout the life course for cohorts born between 1751 and 2000. Three key measures are calculated: the mean number of living ancestors at birth, the distribution of living generations at birth and at age 20, and lifetime overlap with each ancestor, operationalised as years with at least one living ancestor, person-years of overlap, and mean overlap per ancestor. The results show an increasing lifetime overlap with ancestors over time, particularly with parents and grandparents, and among cohorts born after 1850. The analysis also reveals greater overlap with female ancestors, particularly grandmothers and great-grandmothers, than with their male counterparts. By measuring lifetime overlap with ancestors by age and cohort, the study highlights how demographic changes have increased opportunities for intergenerational relationships, support and caregiving.

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Commission research, engage INCLUSIECON as policy advisors, or fund our work. We partner with governments, NGOs, and civil society organizations across Canada on tax and transfer policy.

Over 2 million Americans were estimated to have chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2020. The national hepatitis C elimination initiative provides an opportunity to dramatically expand access to HCV treatment nationally. Using a validated microsimulation model, we projected the health benefits and cost savings of the proposed US national hepatitis C elimination initiative compared with the status quo from 2025 to 2044. The model incorporates HCV disease progression, incidence, diagnosis, treatment, and costs across Medicare, Medicaid, privately insured, justice-involved, and uninsured populations. By 2034, the initiative is projected to reduce the number of persons with HCV to approximately 100,000, compared with 1.3 million under the status quo. Over 10 years (2025–2034), the initiative is projected to avert 20,000 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 49,000 cases of diabetes, 25,000 cases of chronic kidney disease, and 24,000 deaths, and add 220,000 life years. These reductions in disea

We are pleased to announce the 5th UKMOD Fest, a gathering of developers, users and friends of UKMOD, the free tax-benefit microsimulation model for the UK and its constituent nations, to share…

This is the final workshop of the ESRC-funded project on “Determinants and effects of benefit take-up: Insights from panel data and microsimulation modelling” (ES/Y006070/1). The event is online,…

The optimal frequency of COVID-19 booster vaccination is unclear. Here, the authors use a microsimulation model to assess the impact of different vaccine schedules on severe disease and show that...