YouTube video by ピンク♡ちゃん

YouTube video by ピンク♡ちゃん

Record-breaking extreme rainfall events, such as those observed in Southeast Africa (SEAF) in February 2023, underscore the urgent need to quantify anthropogenic impacts on extreme weather risks. This study presents an attribution and projection analysis of February extreme rainfall in SEAF by evaluating probabilistic risk changes across multiple Earth System Model (ESM) ensembles and numerical weather prediction (NWP) experiments. While NWP models reliably capture the magnitude and frequency of these extremes, ESMs generally exhibit a wet bias, necessitating the use of relative thresholds. Our attribution analysis reveals that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing significantly increases the risk of extreme events (e.g. once-in-70-year and once-in-150-year events, comparable to the precipitation intensities of 2000 and 2023). However, this risk increase remains less certain under all-forcing simulations, as ESMs show substantial disagreement regarding aerosol (AER) influences. Future projections under various shared socioeconomic pathways indicate that a higher GHG emission exacerbates these risks, highlighting the critical importance of aggressive mitigation efforts. Furthermore, shifts in generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters demonstrate how forcing-driven climate changes may deform the risk probability distribution, with a higher emission of GHG potentially altering both the climatological mean and interannual variability of SEAF extreme rainfall. Our findings are supported by both ESM and NWP results (particularly short-lead forecasts), with the latter exhibiting lower uncertainty due to constraints on synoptic systems and internal oceanic variability. We conclude that GHG forcing likely elevates the risk of 2023-like extreme events in SEAF and discuss the remaining sources of uncertainty in these projections.

What we stand for A New Direction for New Westminster Together, we will make our city vibrant, clean, and safe again We are a diverse team united by a passion for responsible local government. When el...

A vehicle was seized by police in Wrexham on Wednesday evening for "careless and anti-social driving". Officers from NWP Wrexham Town said the vehicle was seized using new powers introduced under the Crime and Policing Act 2026. The legislation amended existing powers under Section 59 of the Police Reform Act 2002, removing the requirement for officers to first issue a warning before seizing a vehicle being used in an anti-social manner. The powers, which came into force in June, are intended to allow officers to take more immediate action. Commenting on the seized vehicle, a spokesperson for NWP Wrexham Town said: "If you are to be in this position it is your responsibility for paying the recovery and storage fees, as well as providing licence and insurance documentation to get your vehicle back."

A police warning has been issued after reports of a "sophisticated" pay-at-pump scam in North Wales. NWP Cyber Crime said fraudsters have targeted motorists paying for petrol or diesel by placing a hidden device inside card terminals that can capture the details of customers' bank cards. The stolen card information is then transmitted to nearby mobile devices and may be used to create cloned cards, make unauthorised withdrawals, or be sold to other criminals. The force said that while reports of the "sophisticated" scam remain limited at this time, it is important for motorists to stay vigilant and protect their personal information.

ALT: Dan Lyell's Nwp Wheelie Stunt

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Thirteen e-bikes and e-scooters will be destroyed after being seized by police in Wrexham city centre. The riders were stopped by officers from Wrexham's Neighbourhood team as part of a wider crackdown on the use of the vehicles in public spaces. Four e-bikes and nine e-scooters will now be destroyed after being seized by the force. In a statement, a spokesperson for NWP Wrexham Town the use of e-scooters remains illegal on public spaces and roads in the UK and urged parents to think twice about buying them as a gift for their children.

Abstract. Turbulence parameterization in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models remains a challenge, particularly as resolution continues to increase. Existing turbulence evaluation methods often r...

New Westminster councillor questions city's practice of selecting ethics commissioner, stresses need for political independence