It would take specialized knowledge to know what the overnight repo market is, and to know that like $12 TRILLION of overnight repos are traded every day. www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog...
But again, one can deduce that an $18.5B fed intervention in that market isn’t an existential event.
But again, one can deduce that an $18.5B fed intervention in that market isn’t an existential event.
Sizing the U.S. Repo Market | Office of Financial Research
The U.S. repo market averages $12.6 trillion in daily exposures, due to the addition of OFR’s non-centrally cleared bilateral repo collection.
www.financialresearch.gov
February 19, 2026 at 4:16 PM
It would take specialized knowledge to know what the overnight repo market is, and to know that like $12 TRILLION of overnight repos are traded every day. www.financialresearch.gov/the-ofr-blog...
But again, one can deduce that an $18.5B fed intervention in that market isn’t an existential event.
But again, one can deduce that an $18.5B fed intervention in that market isn’t an existential event.
Selling my shit on the black market like Repo
September 30, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Selling my shit on the black market like Repo
Among other things, the numbers involved in the repo market just absolutely break peoples' brains. Primary dealers have over *$8 trillion* in gross repo outstanding.
www.sifma.org/research/sta...
Daily repo transaction volumes are over $5trn.
www.financialresearch.gov/short-term-f...
$18bn is ~0.
www.sifma.org/research/sta...
Daily repo transaction volumes are over $5trn.
www.financialresearch.gov/short-term-f...
$18bn is ~0.
February 19, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Among other things, the numbers involved in the repo market just absolutely break peoples' brains. Primary dealers have over *$8 trillion* in gross repo outstanding.
www.sifma.org/research/sta...
Daily repo transaction volumes are over $5trn.
www.financialresearch.gov/short-term-f...
$18bn is ~0.
www.sifma.org/research/sta...
Daily repo transaction volumes are over $5trn.
www.financialresearch.gov/short-term-f...
$18bn is ~0.
After years of pretending to understand the repo market, I'm going to try to actually understand it.
You don't have to admit it, but you know what I mean. www.amazon.com/Repo-Market-...
You don't have to admit it, but you know what I mean. www.amazon.com/Repo-Market-...
January 28, 2025 at 2:45 AM
After years of pretending to understand the repo market, I'm going to try to actually understand it.
You don't have to admit it, but you know what I mean. www.amazon.com/Repo-Market-...
You don't have to admit it, but you know what I mean. www.amazon.com/Repo-Market-...
‘Imagine a scenario where banks pull back repo loans because of stress elsewhere on their balance sheets. Repo rates would then surge, hedge funds could liquidate Treasury positions en masse, and yields would gyrate.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
How Sky-High Deficits Threaten the Bond Market
The Treasury is issuing record debt into a market increasingly unfriendly to profligate governments.
www.wsj.com
July 17, 2026 at 4:12 PM
‘Imagine a scenario where banks pull back repo loans because of stress elsewhere on their balance sheets. Repo rates would then surge, hedge funds could liquidate Treasury positions en masse, and yields would gyrate.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
Just take as given that the repo market (short-term financing for low credit risk securities like UST, MBS, etc) is closely tied to the Fed funds market (the market for reserves). When there aren't enough reserves, repo rates spike. And that's what happened in 2019 (big spike on chart).
November 4, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Just take as given that the repo market (short-term financing for low credit risk securities like UST, MBS, etc) is closely tied to the Fed funds market (the market for reserves). When there aren't enough reserves, repo rates spike. And that's what happened in 2019 (big spike on chart).
NEW PIECE: The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Eliminates the Office of Financial Research—Threatening the Stability of the Treasury Market
www.crisesnotes.com/the-one-big-...
www.crisesnotes.com/the-one-big-...
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Eliminates the Office of Financial Research—Threatening the Stability of the Treasury Market
Early last week I started working on a piece on why the Federal Reserve didn’t step in during the Trump Tariff Financial Panic. The basic idea of that piece is simply that “repo rates”- the interest r...
www.crisesnotes.com
June 10, 2025 at 3:46 PM
NEW PIECE: The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Eliminates the Office of Financial Research—Threatening the Stability of the Treasury Market
www.crisesnotes.com/the-one-big-...
www.crisesnotes.com/the-one-big-...
September 21, 2026 at 7:42 AM
still my heart - REPO IS VERY SYSTEMIC piece @alphaville.ft.com
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
Repo is even bigger than we thought
A taxonomy of the engorged and utterly systemic US repurchase market
www.ft.com
January 13, 2026 at 5:24 PM
still my heart - REPO IS VERY SYSTEMIC piece @alphaville.ft.com
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
Can’t think of more appropriate late-summer content than a dive into cross-border repo and the phenomenon of negative collateral haircuts. on.ft.com/41jhBIB
The negative-haircut repo market phenomenon
Reverse clickbait alert
on.ft.com
July 30, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Can’t think of more appropriate late-summer content than a dive into cross-border repo and the phenomenon of negative collateral haircuts. on.ft.com/41jhBIB
REPO now makes up half of Russia’s banking sector liquidity. The rest is just required reserves. Horrible. The banking market is frozen.
January 12, 2026 at 11:25 PM
REPO now makes up half of Russia’s banking sector liquidity. The rest is just required reserves. Horrible. The banking market is frozen.
Posted a short blog post with updated data (and public repo with data) of current state of Econ job market:
paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...
paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...
October 8, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Posted a short blog post with updated data (and public repo with data) of current state of Econ job market:
paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...
paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...
Repo rates ripped higher, the Fed had to step in and provide liquidity via the repo market, and eventually had to restart QE. This wasn't because of people not repaying loans or a government shutdown, it was because banks want X reserves and the Fed provided X-Y reserves.
November 4, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Repo rates ripped higher, the Fed had to step in and provide liquidity via the repo market, and eventually had to restart QE. This wasn't because of people not repaying loans or a government shutdown, it was because banks want X reserves and the Fed provided X-Y reserves.
And lo, an essay on the the repo market and why it is like the "dark matter" of modern finance: vast, omnipresent, powerful and hidden — and therefore most easily observed through its impact on other bodies. www.ft.com/content/8a7e...
September 5, 2026 at 8:30 AM
And lo, an essay on the the repo market and why it is like the "dark matter" of modern finance: vast, omnipresent, powerful and hidden — and therefore most easily observed through its impact on other bodies. www.ft.com/content/8a7e...
How fucked you are based on what charts are currently being posted (least to most fucked)
1. Monthly/quarterly economic data
2. Stocks going down
3. Currencies or commodities going down
4. Interest rates or credit spreads going up
5. Weird repo market shit happening
6. Raw bond prices going down
1. Monthly/quarterly economic data
2. Stocks going down
3. Currencies or commodities going down
4. Interest rates or credit spreads going up
5. Weird repo market shit happening
6. Raw bond prices going down
April 9, 2025 at 10:37 AM
How fucked you are based on what charts are currently being posted (least to most fucked)
1. Monthly/quarterly economic data
2. Stocks going down
3. Currencies or commodities going down
4. Interest rates or credit spreads going up
5. Weird repo market shit happening
6. Raw bond prices going down
1. Monthly/quarterly economic data
2. Stocks going down
3. Currencies or commodities going down
4. Interest rates or credit spreads going up
5. Weird repo market shit happening
6. Raw bond prices going down
Looks like moron risk premium beats the usual (and at this point boring) predictions that the repo market will blow up the world.
MUST-READ
@tracyalloway.bsky.social does an autopsy of last week's basis trade blowout, and finds the causes more ominous than mere overleverage or illiquidity in the system.
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
@tracyalloway.bsky.social does an autopsy of last week's basis trade blowout, and finds the causes more ominous than mere overleverage or illiquidity in the system.
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here: www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
April 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Looks like moron risk premium beats the usual (and at this point boring) predictions that the repo market will blow up the world.
Global money-markets are showing signs of liquidity drying up, with the repo market in particular under strain.
The Fed’s move was a short-term fix to keep the system stable, but it’s also a signal that the financial system is feeling real stress beneath the surface.
The Fed’s move was a short-term fix to keep the system stable, but it’s also a signal that the financial system is feeling real stress beneath the surface.
November 2, 2025 at 5:03 AM
Global money-markets are showing signs of liquidity drying up, with the repo market in particular under strain.
The Fed’s move was a short-term fix to keep the system stable, but it’s also a signal that the financial system is feeling real stress beneath the surface.
The Fed’s move was a short-term fix to keep the system stable, but it’s also a signal that the financial system is feeling real stress beneath the surface.
The frontend is entirely done by Claude, I certainly can't write react. The backend is basically copy/pasted from my market repo (which is a full backfilling index of the entire network)
October 4, 2025 at 9:32 PM
The frontend is entirely done by Claude, I certainly can't write react. The backend is basically copy/pasted from my market repo (which is a full backfilling index of the entire network)
I added a bunch of projects to sdk.blue:
hailey/cocoon & expo-atproto-auth
why/cbor-gen & market
retr0id/millipds
microcosm/microcosm-rs & repo-stream
smokesignal/smokesignal & quickdid
streamplace/streamplace
tangled/core
hailey/cocoon & expo-atproto-auth
why/cbor-gen & market
retr0id/millipds
microcosm/microcosm-rs & repo-stream
smokesignal/smokesignal & quickdid
streamplace/streamplace
tangled/core
October 20, 2025 at 5:08 PM
I added a bunch of projects to sdk.blue:
hailey/cocoon & expo-atproto-auth
why/cbor-gen & market
retr0id/millipds
microcosm/microcosm-rs & repo-stream
smokesignal/smokesignal & quickdid
streamplace/streamplace
tangled/core
hailey/cocoon & expo-atproto-auth
why/cbor-gen & market
retr0id/millipds
microcosm/microcosm-rs & repo-stream
smokesignal/smokesignal & quickdid
streamplace/streamplace
tangled/core
Absolutely none of you understood the genius that is repo! The genetic opera and now I can say to you, you fools. We could have had futuristic dystopia rock opera and instead we've got Beigy McBlandman over here pretending like he understands market fundamentals.
Wasted opportunity.
Wasted opportunity.
New acting director of CDC Jim O'Neill expressed being pro paid organ donation.
"There are plenty of healthy spare kidneys walking around, unused."
"There are plenty of healthy spare kidneys walking around, unused."
August 29, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Absolutely none of you understood the genius that is repo! The genetic opera and now I can say to you, you fools. We could have had futuristic dystopia rock opera and instead we've got Beigy McBlandman over here pretending like he understands market fundamentals.
Wasted opportunity.
Wasted opportunity.
If you're wondering how come gold and stocks is all time high at the same time, consider this:
Car repo is up 43% from 2022.
Car payments fail just before house payments.
This isn't a bubble.
We're in September 1929, except the stock market is supercharged on an overdose of steroids and speed.
Car repo is up 43% from 2022.
Car payments fail just before house payments.
This isn't a bubble.
We're in September 1929, except the stock market is supercharged on an overdose of steroids and speed.
December 30, 2025 at 7:17 AM
If you're wondering how come gold and stocks is all time high at the same time, consider this:
Car repo is up 43% from 2022.
Car payments fail just before house payments.
This isn't a bubble.
We're in September 1929, except the stock market is supercharged on an overdose of steroids and speed.
Car repo is up 43% from 2022.
Car payments fail just before house payments.
This isn't a bubble.
We're in September 1929, except the stock market is supercharged on an overdose of steroids and speed.
Some light reading for the weekend on Treasury market liquidity and the overnight reverse repo
on.ft.com/3RWF8Kr
on.ft.com/3RWF8Kr
It was remarkably resilient repo wot won it
[FREE TO READ] Why April 2025 was no March 2020
on.ft.com
May 9, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Some light reading for the weekend on Treasury market liquidity and the overnight reverse repo
on.ft.com/3RWF8Kr
on.ft.com/3RWF8Kr
US Treasury considering deploying TGA in the repo market..... via Bloomberg
July 31, 2026 at 3:51 PM
US Treasury considering deploying TGA in the repo market..... via Bloomberg
‼️ Russia: “Moscow Exchange has provided market participants and their clients with the opportunity to conclude repo transactions with a central counterparty with floating-rate bonds with a maturity of up to one year, the trading platform said in a statement.
www.interfax.ru/business/996...
www.interfax.ru/business/996...
December 10, 2024 at 3:38 AM
‼️ Russia: “Moscow Exchange has provided market participants and their clients with the opportunity to conclude repo transactions with a central counterparty with floating-rate bonds with a maturity of up to one year, the trading platform said in a statement.
www.interfax.ru/business/996...
www.interfax.ru/business/996...
More Fed intervention in the Repo market yesterday.
Soft long-term treasury auctions. (10&30y)
11k weekly private sector job losses.
There's a reason the WH is going to slow roll any data even as the government opens.
Soft long-term treasury auctions. (10&30y)
11k weekly private sector job losses.
There's a reason the WH is going to slow roll any data even as the government opens.
November 13, 2025 at 9:05 PM
More Fed intervention in the Repo market yesterday.
Soft long-term treasury auctions. (10&30y)
11k weekly private sector job losses.
There's a reason the WH is going to slow roll any data even as the government opens.
Soft long-term treasury auctions. (10&30y)
11k weekly private sector job losses.
There's a reason the WH is going to slow roll any data even as the government opens.