When your statistical model "fits the data well" ...
May 9, 2025 at 6:25 AM
When your statistical model "fits the data well" ...
"In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limits."
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
OpenAI admits AI hallucinations are mathematically inevitable, not just engineering flaws
In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limi...
www.computerworld.com
September 21, 2025 at 12:50 PM
"In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limits."
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
www.computerworld.com/article/4059...
"An obscure methodological change lowered a key measure of inflation in January, prompting questions about how government statistical agencies produce and report economic data...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
Change in Data Sources Led to Lower Inflation Reading
www.nytimes.com
March 15, 2026 at 3:16 PM
"An obscure methodological change lowered a key measure of inflation in January, prompting questions about how government statistical agencies produce and report economic data...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
"The bureau provided no public disclosure of the change...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
“Just let them call you a man and ignore all scientific and statistical data on this ONE trans issue, they’ll totally stop there!” - Dems whomst are fucking idiots
March 9, 2025 at 8:45 PM
“Just let them call you a man and ignore all scientific and statistical data on this ONE trans issue, they’ll totally stop there!” - Dems whomst are fucking idiots
anyway yet another data point for my view that “black men for trump” is an artifact of small sample sizes and statistical weighting
November 4, 2024 at 8:49 PM
anyway yet another data point for my view that “black men for trump” is an artifact of small sample sizes and statistical weighting
For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
August 1, 2025 at 6:51 PM
For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
No longer.
Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
EXTREMELY BAD NEWS for economic research, per former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social on LinkedIn.
BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky
BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky
June 6, 2025 at 6:54 PM
EXTREMELY BAD NEWS for economic research, per former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social on LinkedIn.
BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky
BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky
We’ve been making programming tweaks since the election focusing on the nuances of policy, international perspectives, legislation ramifications, and no Trump video/audio. Much deeper dives, statistical analysis, etc. more data less Trump.
December 4, 2024 at 5:11 AM
We’ve been making programming tweaks since the election focusing on the nuances of policy, international perspectives, legislation ramifications, and no Trump video/audio. Much deeper dives, statistical analysis, etc. more data less Trump.
How Trump is reshaping reality by disappearing public data
W/ my fabulous colleague @ashendruk.com
wapo.st/4iCmMtn
W/ my fabulous colleague @ashendruk.com
wapo.st/4iCmMtn
Opinion | How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
Sweeping statistical purges are part of a broader attempt to reinvent “truth.”
wapo.st
March 11, 2025 at 12:51 PM
How Trump is reshaping reality by disappearing public data
W/ my fabulous colleague @ashendruk.com
wapo.st/4iCmMtn
W/ my fabulous colleague @ashendruk.com
wapo.st/4iCmMtn
Due to staffing shortages caused by the Trump administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has significantly increased its reliance on “imputations”, statistical guesswork used to fill in gaps where real data is missing. In some major cities, they’ve stopped collecting data altogether.
June 6, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Due to staffing shortages caused by the Trump administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has significantly increased its reliance on “imputations”, statistical guesswork used to fill in gaps where real data is missing. In some major cities, they’ve stopped collecting data altogether.
The government employs thousands of data analysts, our statistical agencies collect millions of data points, conference rooms full of trade economists spend decades studying how to make sense of it all, and he's inside the residence scribbling numbers with a sharpie, isn't he.
July 31, 2025 at 11:19 PM
The government employs thousands of data analysts, our statistical agencies collect millions of data points, conference rooms full of trade economists spend decades studying how to make sense of it all, and he's inside the residence scribbling numbers with a sharpie, isn't he.
What you're getting from an LLM is a statistical approximation of what the answer would be to a statistical approximation of the question.
This is why prompt engineering is fake. The prompt (and any input data) is just a suggestion - and helps fool you into thinking that your question was answered.
This is why prompt engineering is fake. The prompt (and any input data) is just a suggestion - and helps fool you into thinking that your question was answered.
October 11, 2025 at 5:35 PM
What you're getting from an LLM is a statistical approximation of what the answer would be to a statistical approximation of the question.
This is why prompt engineering is fake. The prompt (and any input data) is just a suggestion - and helps fool you into thinking that your question was answered.
This is why prompt engineering is fake. The prompt (and any input data) is just a suggestion - and helps fool you into thinking that your question was answered.
know whose jobs can be eliminated by a statistical model that produces decisions based on data? executives.
July 16, 2025 at 4:04 AM
know whose jobs can be eliminated by a statistical model that produces decisions based on data? executives.
Generative AI should be called Normative AI, as all it's doing is an endless rearrangement of elements according to the statistical norms it has learned from its training data. AI is the sedimentation of the status quo.
May 5, 2024 at 7:32 AM
Generative AI should be called Normative AI, as all it's doing is an endless rearrangement of elements according to the statistical norms it has learned from its training data. AI is the sedimentation of the status quo.
This is the statistical agency, founded in 1867, that publishes data on how well children can read
(among other critical metrics) bsky.app/profile/trav...
(among other critical metrics) bsky.app/profile/trav...
🧪The entire staff of the Department of Education’s NCES-a vital independent statistical agency - has just been RIFed. The continued erasure of data and evidence allows for the Trump administration to hide the impact of their corruption.
#EduSky #Scisky @aeraedresearch.bsky.social @cossa.bsky.social
#EduSky #Scisky @aeraedresearch.bsky.social @cossa.bsky.social
March 12, 2025 at 3:43 AM
This is the statistical agency, founded in 1867, that publishes data on how well children can read
(among other critical metrics) bsky.app/profile/trav...
(among other critical metrics) bsky.app/profile/trav...
Am Econ Assn speaks out about firing the #BLS Commish.
"It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as [better] data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor--not failure or bias."
"It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as [better] data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor--not failure or bias."
August 2, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Am Econ Assn speaks out about firing the #BLS Commish.
"It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as [better] data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor--not failure or bias."
"It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as [better] data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor--not failure or bias."
Greg Palast did a statistical investigation and reported data showing how the 2024 election was rigged, manipulated and stolen.
April 23, 2026 at 4:55 AM
Greg Palast did a statistical investigation and reported data showing how the 2024 election was rigged, manipulated and stolen.
Look ma, no data!
On Trump’s digital book-burning: wapo.st/3XF0wqH
On Trump’s digital book-burning: wapo.st/3XF0wqH
Opinion | How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data
Sweeping statistical purges are part of a broader attempt to reinvent “truth.”
wapo.st
March 12, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Look ma, no data!
On Trump’s digital book-burning: wapo.st/3XF0wqH
On Trump’s digital book-burning: wapo.st/3XF0wqH
New report from the American Statistical Association shows massive staffing cuts across the statistical agencies: 20% decline at BLS (which produces jobs & inflation data). 20% decline at BEA (produces GDP). 35% at EIA (oil/gas/electricity data - as Trump makes wild claims about "energy dominance")
December 20, 2025 at 7:02 PM
New report from the American Statistical Association shows massive staffing cuts across the statistical agencies: 20% decline at BLS (which produces jobs & inflation data). 20% decline at BEA (produces GDP). 35% at EIA (oil/gas/electricity data - as Trump makes wild claims about "energy dominance")
a statistical analysis is only as good as its authors' willingness to be honest about the limitations of the data that was used.
The "misinformation" in question here is that gender-affirming care reduces suicides among youth. It merely reduces depression, anxiety, self-harm and suicidal ideation.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
July 6, 2025 at 1:23 PM
a statistical analysis is only as good as its authors' willingness to be honest about the limitations of the data that was used.
A sharp rise in the latest initial unemployment claims data. Initial claims are our most timely data, telling us what happened *last week*.
This spike is either:
- Statistical noise, which might get reversed next week
- Our early warning system sounding the alarm
Stay tuned.
This spike is either:
- Statistical noise, which might get reversed next week
- Our early warning system sounding the alarm
Stay tuned.
September 11, 2025 at 1:09 PM
A sharp rise in the latest initial unemployment claims data. Initial claims are our most timely data, telling us what happened *last week*.
This spike is either:
- Statistical noise, which might get reversed next week
- Our early warning system sounding the alarm
Stay tuned.
This spike is either:
- Statistical noise, which might get reversed next week
- Our early warning system sounding the alarm
Stay tuned.
another reminder that all LLMs are is complicated statistical models, and all they can ever do is replicate and reproduce the biases in their data
The findings “suggest that medical AI tools powered by LLMs have a tendency to not reflect the severity of symptoms among female patients, while also displaying less ‘empathy’ towards Black and Asian ones.”
AI medical tools downplay symptoms in women and ethnic minorities
Large language models reflect biases that can lead to inferior healthcare advice to female, Black and Asian patients
www.ft.com
September 19, 2025 at 7:07 PM
another reminder that all LLMs are is complicated statistical models, and all they can ever do is replicate and reproduce the biases in their data
This is what research data analysis is like, and it's about time we started supporting it
January 5, 2026 at 6:14 PM
This is what research data analysis is like, and it's about time we started supporting it
Also, controlling for percent Evangelical based on Pew survey data does not undo this relationship (in fact, percent Evangelical loses conventional statistical significance in a multivariate regression with testosterone searches).
September 28, 2026 at 4:37 PM
Also, controlling for percent Evangelical based on Pew survey data does not undo this relationship (in fact, percent Evangelical loses conventional statistical significance in a multivariate regression with testosterone searches).
This study uses descriptive statistical analysis of publicly available data and data obtained through four Freedom of Information requests submitted to the Ontario Ministry of Health and Ontario Health
#onpoli
#onpoli
September 28, 2026 at 10:34 AM
This study uses descriptive statistical analysis of publicly available data and data obtained through four Freedom of Information requests submitted to the Ontario Ministry of Health and Ontario Health
#onpoli
#onpoli