We're just Weibull men.
September 20, 2026 at 6:16 PM
We're just Weibull men.
The thing about being ruled by a gerontocracy is that cohort mortality is a probability density, meaning all these fuckers start dying around the same time -- in clusters.
The same Weibull Distribution "bathtub curve" explains why batches of light bulbs and hard drives all die in the same month.
The same Weibull Distribution "bathtub curve" explains why batches of light bulbs and hard drives all die in the same month.
July 12, 2026 at 7:14 AM
The thing about being ruled by a gerontocracy is that cohort mortality is a probability density, meaning all these fuckers start dying around the same time -- in clusters.
The same Weibull Distribution "bathtub curve" explains why batches of light bulbs and hard drives all die in the same month.
The same Weibull Distribution "bathtub curve" explains why batches of light bulbs and hard drives all die in the same month.
I was rooting for weibull
September 18, 2026 at 5:46 PM
I was rooting for weibull
The fates are basically just a Weibull failure rate curve on every piece of equipment you interact with.
March 12, 2026 at 4:08 PM
The fates are basically just a Weibull failure rate curve on every piece of equipment you interact with.
New working paper, with Jörgen Weibull:
Moral Consumers and the Environment
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Abstract below
Moral Consumers and the Environment
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Abstract below
papers.ssrn.com
February 12, 2026 at 12:40 PM
New working paper, with Jörgen Weibull:
Moral Consumers and the Environment
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Abstract below
Moral Consumers and the Environment
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Abstract below
Litter decomposition in streams is usually studied by calculating a breakdown rate, k, which assumes that the rate is constant through time - ever wondered how generally that assumption holds? Just accepted in L&O Letters: www.researchgate.net/publication/...
May 12, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Litter decomposition in streams is usually studied by calculating a breakdown rate, k, which assumes that the rate is constant through time - ever wondered how generally that assumption holds? Just accepted in L&O Letters: www.researchgate.net/publication/...
Grattis till SOM-institutet som idag firade 40 stolta år, med tal av grundarna Sören Holmberg och Lennart Weibull. Själv är jag stolt över att ha medverkat redan i den första SOM-volymen 1986. Det har blivit en och annan SOM-artikel sedan dess...
June 4, 2026 at 6:33 PM
Grattis till SOM-institutet som idag firade 40 stolta år, med tal av grundarna Sören Holmberg och Lennart Weibull. Själv är jag stolt över att ha medverkat redan i den första SOM-volymen 1986. Det har blivit en och annan SOM-artikel sedan dess...
penaltyblog v1.1.0 is released!
🔥 250x faster models with Cython
📊 New models: Negative Binomial, Weibull, ZIP & Bivariate
🔢 Pi Ratings System for ranking teams
🔗 Full changelog: penaltyblog.readthedocs.io/en/master/changelog/index.html
#Python #SportsAnalytics #MachineLearning
🔥 250x faster models with Cython
📊 New models: Negative Binomial, Weibull, ZIP & Bivariate
🔢 Pi Ratings System for ranking teams
🔗 Full changelog: penaltyblog.readthedocs.io/en/master/changelog/index.html
#Python #SportsAnalytics #MachineLearning
Changelog — penaltyblog documentation
penaltyblog.readthedocs.io
March 15, 2025 at 8:20 PM
penaltyblog v1.1.0 is released!
🔥 250x faster models with Cython
📊 New models: Negative Binomial, Weibull, ZIP & Bivariate
🔢 Pi Ratings System for ranking teams
🔗 Full changelog: penaltyblog.readthedocs.io/en/master/changelog/index.html
#Python #SportsAnalytics #MachineLearning
🔥 250x faster models with Cython
📊 New models: Negative Binomial, Weibull, ZIP & Bivariate
🔢 Pi Ratings System for ranking teams
🔗 Full changelog: penaltyblog.readthedocs.io/en/master/changelog/index.html
#Python #SportsAnalytics #MachineLearning
I cant decide if I like or hate the weibull
January 27, 2026 at 4:01 AM
I cant decide if I like or hate the weibull
I min senaste universitetshistoriska artikel har jag lyckats beslå Lauritz Weibull med dubbelt slarv kring ett historiskt citat (felaktig transkribering OCH ofullständig källhänvisning). Någon kommenterade sålunda: "Tänk om Ohlmarks fått uppleva detta!"
May 9, 2025 at 2:10 PM
I min senaste universitetshistoriska artikel har jag lyckats beslå Lauritz Weibull med dubbelt slarv kring ett historiskt citat (felaktig transkribering OCH ofullständig källhänvisning). Någon kommenterade sålunda: "Tänk om Ohlmarks fått uppleva detta!"
Чем бы таким вас порадовать. Полюбуйтесь на розу (Nina Weibull).
October 28, 2023 at 6:13 PM
Чем бы таким вас порадовать. Полюбуйтесь на розу (Nina Weibull).
Itse asiassa kyllä! Tunnusti, että yksinkertainen, laskimellakin tehtävissä oleva kahden datapisteen avulla tehtävä estimaatti antaa *jopa tarkemmat* Weibull-parametrit kuin käyrän logaritminen sovittaminen, varsinkin jos havaintoja on vähän!
November 7, 2025 at 5:47 AM
Itse asiassa kyllä! Tunnusti, että yksinkertainen, laskimellakin tehtävissä oleva kahden datapisteen avulla tehtävä estimaatti antaa *jopa tarkemmat* Weibull-parametrit kuin käyrän logaritminen sovittaminen, varsinkin jos havaintoja on vähän!
Hello #EconSky, have I got an exciting new working paper for you!
Coen Teulings and I study three distributions (wealth, city and firm size), which are always thought to be distributed Pareto.
Bottom line: These distributions are *not* Pareto, but Weibull! A thread 1/
Coen Teulings and I study three distributions (wealth, city and firm size), which are always thought to be distributed Pareto.
Bottom line: These distributions are *not* Pareto, but Weibull! A thread 1/
November 23, 2023 at 12:20 PM
Hello #EconSky, have I got an exciting new working paper for you!
Coen Teulings and I study three distributions (wealth, city and firm size), which are always thought to be distributed Pareto.
Bottom line: These distributions are *not* Pareto, but Weibull! A thread 1/
Coen Teulings and I study three distributions (wealth, city and firm size), which are always thought to be distributed Pareto.
Bottom line: These distributions are *not* Pareto, but Weibull! A thread 1/
#statstab #576 Zero Truncated Negative Binomial Weighted Weibull Distribution and Its Application
Thoughts: Lots of cool work with new distributions for specific data/scenarios. Let's move beyond Normal.
#negativebinomial #weibull #distributions #MLE
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Thoughts: Lots of cool work with new distributions for specific data/scenarios. Let's move beyond Normal.
#negativebinomial #weibull #distributions #MLE
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Zero Truncated Negative Binomial Weighted Weibull Distribution and Its Application - Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics
Abstract In this article, we propose two new discrete distributions, the negative binomial-weighted Weibull and the zero truncated negative binomial-weighted Weibull distributions. Some statistical pr...
link.springer.com
July 7, 2026 at 2:27 PM
#statstab #576 Zero Truncated Negative Binomial Weighted Weibull Distribution and Its Application
Thoughts: Lots of cool work with new distributions for specific data/scenarios. Let's move beyond Normal.
#negativebinomial #weibull #distributions #MLE
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Thoughts: Lots of cool work with new distributions for specific data/scenarios. Let's move beyond Normal.
#negativebinomial #weibull #distributions #MLE
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Optimist: the cup is half full
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Materials scientist: the cup is made from a ceramic material that is brittle. We should undertake a Weibull analysis on similar cups to determine the probability of cup failure during use at 50% capacity.
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Materials scientist: the cup is made from a ceramic material that is brittle. We should undertake a Weibull analysis on similar cups to determine the probability of cup failure during use at 50% capacity.
Optimist: the cup is half full
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Physicist: the cup is a sphere of constant density in a vacuum.
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Physicist: the cup is a sphere of constant density in a vacuum.
Optimist: the cup is half full
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Mircobiologist: the cup is full. Just look at what grew on this plate when wd swabbed the inside of the cup and the sequences we recovered from the filtered air.
🧪🧫
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Mircobiologist: the cup is full. Just look at what grew on this plate when wd swabbed the inside of the cup and the sequences we recovered from the filtered air.
🧪🧫
November 24, 2024 at 8:59 PM
Optimist: the cup is half full
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Materials scientist: the cup is made from a ceramic material that is brittle. We should undertake a Weibull analysis on similar cups to determine the probability of cup failure during use at 50% capacity.
Pessimist: the cup is half empty
Materials scientist: the cup is made from a ceramic material that is brittle. We should undertake a Weibull analysis on similar cups to determine the probability of cup failure during use at 50% capacity.
Igor Kleiner: The Last Isolated Vertex in Random-Order Uncovering of Cycles and Their Powers: Exact Enumeration and Weibull Limits https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29488 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.29488 https://arxiv.org/html/2609.29488
September 25, 2026 at 6:47 AM
Igor Kleiner: The Last Isolated Vertex in Random-Order Uncovering of Cycles and Their Powers: Exact Enumeration and Weibull Limits https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29488 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.29488 https://arxiv.org/html/2609.29488
Nice cost analysis inspired by the METR data.
Agent with a METR time of 5 hours hits cost parity with a $150/hr human on tasks that take more than 24 hours.
ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/dXsBcj...
Agent with a METR time of 5 hours hits cost parity with a $150/hr human on tasks that take more than 24 hours.
ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/dXsBcj...
On Economics of A(S)I Agents
This is an update to Agent Economics: a BOTEC on feasibility. Toby Ord pointed me to Gus Hamilton's Weibull reanalysis of the METR data. Hamilton finds that a declining hazard rate (Weibull with κ ≈ 0.6–0.9 for SOTA models) may fit the data as well as Ord's constant hazard rate, producing a much fatter survival tail that changes the economics. This post presents both models and extends the analysis in two directions: a quantitative treatment of verification cost as the binding constraint under the Weibull model, and a systematic examination of the economic conditions under which a genuinely dangerous autonomous agent could actually operate. His full comment is in Appendix A.
ea.greaterwrong.com
February 7, 2026 at 10:08 PM
Nice cost analysis inspired by the METR data.
Agent with a METR time of 5 hours hits cost parity with a $150/hr human on tasks that take more than 24 hours.
ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/dXsBcj...
Agent with a METR time of 5 hours hits cost parity with a $150/hr human on tasks that take more than 24 hours.
ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/dXsBcj...
⚽ New blog post - which football prediction model is the best?
Poisson, Weibull, or Negative Binomial — each has its strengths and weaknesses. Learn how to optimise them for accurate match predictions using my penaltyblog Python package.
pena.lt/y/2025/03/10...
#FootballAnalytics #DataScience
Poisson, Weibull, or Negative Binomial — each has its strengths and weaknesses. Learn how to optimise them for accurate match predictions using my penaltyblog Python package.
pena.lt/y/2025/03/10...
#FootballAnalytics #DataScience
Football Prediction Models: Which Ones Work the Best?
Comparing football goals models — Poisson, Dixon-Coles, and more — to see which predicts best and how to optimize them...
pena.lt
March 16, 2025 at 7:09 PM
⚽ New blog post - which football prediction model is the best?
Poisson, Weibull, or Negative Binomial — each has its strengths and weaknesses. Learn how to optimise them for accurate match predictions using my penaltyblog Python package.
pena.lt/y/2025/03/10...
#FootballAnalytics #DataScience
Poisson, Weibull, or Negative Binomial — each has its strengths and weaknesses. Learn how to optimise them for accurate match predictions using my penaltyblog Python package.
pena.lt/y/2025/03/10...
#FootballAnalytics #DataScience
PyMC people: Is there a way to implement a weighted formulation of a discrete count likelihood like the poisson, discrete weibull, etc? In Stan I'd typically do this via something like
for(n in 1:N)
target += ({function}(args...) * weights[n]);
for(n in 1:N)
target += ({function}(args...) * weights[n]);
September 12, 2025 at 9:06 PM
PyMC people: Is there a way to implement a weighted formulation of a discrete count likelihood like the poisson, discrete weibull, etc? In Stan I'd typically do this via something like
for(n in 1:N)
target += ({function}(args...) * weights[n]);
for(n in 1:N)
target += ({function}(args...) * weights[n]);
Hydrology Paper of the Day @abahremand.bsky.social on why hydrological performance metrics for flash flood prediction are not suitable for establishing model performance: a novel framework for evaluation, and statistics and machine learning for feature importance.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Distribution-informed machine learning for flash flood susceptibility: integrating weibull extreme value theory with interpretable models - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - Distribution-informed machine learning for flash flood susceptibility: integrating weibull extreme value theory with interpretable models
www.nature.com
May 25, 2026 at 3:33 PM
Hydrology Paper of the Day @abahremand.bsky.social on why hydrological performance metrics for flash flood prediction are not suitable for establishing model performance: a novel framework for evaluation, and statistics and machine learning for feature importance.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🚀 penaltyblog v1.11.0 is out.
This release adds:
⚡ predict_many() for fast batch forecasting
🏟️ Neutral venue support
📈 A bundled pre-trained xT model
🚄 ~4× faster Weibull Copula fitting
🤖 Context7 MCP documentation support
This release adds:
⚡ predict_many() for fast batch forecasting
🏟️ Neutral venue support
📈 A bundled pre-trained xT model
🚄 ~4× faster Weibull Copula fitting
🤖 Context7 MCP documentation support
June 9, 2026 at 6:52 PM
🚀 penaltyblog v1.11.0 is out.
This release adds:
⚡ predict_many() for fast batch forecasting
🏟️ Neutral venue support
📈 A bundled pre-trained xT model
🚄 ~4× faster Weibull Copula fitting
🤖 Context7 MCP documentation support
This release adds:
⚡ predict_many() for fast batch forecasting
🏟️ Neutral venue support
📈 A bundled pre-trained xT model
🚄 ~4× faster Weibull Copula fitting
🤖 Context7 MCP documentation support