Yields Empower Tech, Squeeze Sovereigns
8h
U.S. Treasury yields rose to the highest since the global financial crisis, enabling tech firms to dominate bond issuance for AI investment and spurring investor selling that strained sovereign financing.
Markets read into every word from the Fed like I used to read into every word in a note from my high-school crush. It felt like trillions of dollars were on the line. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-feds-most-powerful-tool-is-expectations
The Fed’s Most Powerful Tool Is Expectations
Kevin Warsh is trying to set them.
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
September 18, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Markets read into every word from the Fed like I used to read into every word in a note from my high-school crush. It felt like trillions of dollars were on the line. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-feds-most-powerful-tool-is-expectations
Rising Japanese government bond yields, meanwhile, were tempting Japanese investors back to the domestic market, which could push US Treasury yields up further.
September 18, 2026 at 2:55 AM
Rising Japanese government bond yields, meanwhile, were tempting Japanese investors back to the domestic market, which could push US Treasury yields up further.
Views for @financialtimes.com: #China’s move is mostly showing the #US they can dump #Treasuries. Global investors were becoming increasingly concerned about US debt levels, which passed $40tn last month.
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
China’s US Treasury holdings fall to lowest level since 2008
Gradual unwinding comes as rift deepens between world’s two largest economies
www.ft.com
September 18, 2026 at 2:55 AM
Views for @financialtimes.com: #China’s move is mostly showing the #US they can dump #Treasuries. Global investors were becoming increasingly concerned about US debt levels, which passed $40tn last month.
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
www.ft.com/content/69f0...
While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages.
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
September 18, 2026 at 6:15 PM
While on yields, this chart from The Wall Street Journal on US mortgages.
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
#economy #markets #yields #mortgages @wsj.com
Despite widespread analyst commentary that the Federal Reserve addressed inflation concerns and passed a “credibility test,”longer-term yields have remained relatively range-bound. It isn't because those factors are unimportant, but because they haven't been the primary drivers pushing yields higher
September 17, 2026 at 7:38 PM
Despite widespread analyst commentary that the Federal Reserve addressed inflation concerns and passed a “credibility test,”longer-term yields have remained relatively range-bound. It isn't because those factors are unimportant, but because they haven't been the primary drivers pushing yields higher
Views for @scmpnews.bsky.social: I may not expect any #monetary easing from #Beijing this year, citing the wide interest rate differential with the US.
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
What does the rate increase by the US Fed mean for the Chinese yuan?
Analysts weigh whether Beijing is set to push ahead with a rate cut to bolster China’s economy despite the US Fed raising interest rates.
www.scmp.com
September 18, 2026 at 10:11 AM
Views for @scmpnews.bsky.social: I may not expect any #monetary easing from #Beijing this year, citing the wide interest rate differential with the US.
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
I think it is Treasuries and there is a special hell for people that use Treasurys (right next to the special hell for the people that write “FED”). I will die on this hill.
September 17, 2026 at 9:21 PM
I think it is Treasuries and there is a special hell for people that use Treasurys (right next to the special hell for the people that write “FED”). I will die on this hill.
by Claudia Sahm
"The Fed is fighting a real problem. Inflation is too high. These higher interest rates are costly medicine." My take on the rate hike this morning with @npr.org's Morning Edition: what the Fed is trying to do, what it can't do, and who pays along the way. www.npr.org/2026/09/17/n...
September 17, 2026 at 12:52 PM
"The Fed is fighting a real problem. Inflation is too high. These higher interest rates are costly medicine." My take on the rate hike this morning with @npr.org's Morning Edition: what the Fed is trying to do, what it can't do, and who pays along the way. www.npr.org/2026/09/17/n...
by Linda Yueh
US federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time on 18 August 2026. This prompted warnings about credibility. On 19 August 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced expanded buybacks of longer-term Treasury debt to drive down long-term interest rates
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Fiscal unsustainability and capture: $40 trillion Treasury debt does not measure the risks; enhanced long-term repurchases don't improve them
US federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion in August 2026, triggering concerns about fiscal credibility and sustainability. This column argues that fiscal sustainability should be assessed using...
cepr.org
September 18, 2026 at 5:19 PM
US federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time on 18 August 2026. This prompted warnings about credibility. On 19 August 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced expanded buybacks of longer-term Treasury debt to drive down long-term interest rates
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
There are two types of people in this world: those who write Treasurys, and those who write Treasuries. Which one are you?
Is dollar safe-asset richness declining? Not for domestic liquidity, but yes for global. Dollar repo has overtaken Treasurys, from Arvind Krishnamurthy and Miguel Chumbo www.nber.org/papers/w35742
September 17, 2026 at 9:03 PM
There are two types of people in this world: those who write Treasurys, and those who write Treasuries. Which one are you?
by Andrew Watt
Key is that r moves sluggishly bc of the big historical component. US (& EU countries) still benefit from low past interest rates. But that cuts both ways. Current high rates also get baked in. If g falls and so do current interest rates, the govt still has a problem bc r takes a long time to fall.
September 18, 2026 at 4:05 AM
Key is that r moves sluggishly bc of the big historical component. US (& EU countries) still benefit from low past interest rates. But that cuts both ways. Current high rates also get baked in. If g falls and so do current interest rates, the govt still has a problem bc r takes a long time to fall.
It may seem confusing, but that's exactly what it is. There are different names for it but, roughly, it's the interest rate they think is consistent with hitting a 2% inflation target in the long run.
September 17, 2026 at 12:30 PM
It may seem confusing, but that's exactly what it is. There are different names for it but, roughly, it's the interest rate they think is consistent with hitting a 2% inflation target in the long run.
The morning after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, markets raised expectations of further monetary tightening, pricing in three additional hikes by the end of June 2027 (Bloomberg chart below).
#economy #markets #federalreserve
#economy #markets #federalreserve
September 17, 2026 at 2:11 PM
The morning after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, markets raised expectations of further monetary tightening, pricing in three additional hikes by the end of June 2027 (Bloomberg chart below).
#economy #markets #federalreserve
#economy #markets #federalreserve
Japan Raises Interest Rates to 31-Year High Under U.S. Pressure www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/b...
Japan Raises Interest Rates to 31-Year High Under U.S. Pressure
The Bank of Japan’s widely expected move followed an unusual campaign by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for tighter monetary policy.
www.nytimes.com
September 18, 2026 at 5:54 AM
Japan Raises Interest Rates to 31-Year High Under U.S. Pressure www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/b...
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 11 Sep #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
September 17, 2026 at 8:53 PM
Emerging Market Update: Longer-term view of currency movements since the start of the post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. All currencies indexed to 100 on March 16 (date of the first Fed rate hike); latest data point is 11 Sep #fx #emergingmarkets #econsky
Reposted by Iñaki Aldasoro
The Treasuries/Treasurys conflict seems obscure until you realise some people’s livelihoods depend upon writing about the bond market at a high frequency.
September 17, 2026 at 9:33 PM
The Treasuries/Treasurys conflict seems obscure until you realise some people’s livelihoods depend upon writing about the bond market at a high frequency.
The Fed Raised Rates. What Comes Next? www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/b...
The Fed Raised Rates. What Comes Next?
Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday left open-ended how much more interest rates may have to rise to tame inflation.
www.nytimes.com
September 17, 2026 at 10:54 AM
The Fed Raised Rates. What Comes Next? www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/b...
Reposted by Iñaki Aldasoro
Is dollar safe-asset richness declining? Not for domestic liquidity, but yes for global. Dollar repo has overtaken Treasurys, from Arvind Krishnamurthy and Miguel Chumbo www.nber.org/papers/w35742
September 17, 2026 at 9:01 PM
Is dollar safe-asset richness declining? Not for domestic liquidity, but yes for global. Dollar repo has overtaken Treasurys, from Arvind Krishnamurthy and Miguel Chumbo www.nber.org/papers/w35742
Reposted by Simon Lester
Pres. Trump's proposed election dividend cheques would push up the deficit, push up inflation, push up interest rates, and make the US economy weaker. @jessicadickler.bsky.social at @cnbc.com summed up views from Brian Bethune, @byheatherlong.bsky.social, and myself. www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/t...
Trump’s proposed $5,000 election dividend checks could fuel inflation, economists say
Economists say President Donald Trump’s promise of a $5,000 "dividend" check could stoke inflation, further straining household finances in the long run.
www.cnbc.com
September 18, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Pres. Trump's proposed election dividend cheques would push up the deficit, push up inflation, push up interest rates, and make the US economy weaker. @jessicadickler.bsky.social at @cnbc.com summed up views from Brian Bethune, @byheatherlong.bsky.social, and myself. www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/t...