Reform UK surge threatens Labour
5 months ago
Reform UK won the largest vote share in England's May 7 local elections, prompting analysts to warn its surge could reshape UK politics and challenge Labour.
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My post on tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
Tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026 | LSE British Politics
With the UK Party system fragmenting, tactical voting has become harder. There is little evidence of tactical voting in the local and devolved elections of 2026.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
May 12, 2026 at 1:01 PM
My post on tactical voting at the local and devolved elections 2026:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
No evidence of effective anti-Reform tactical switching by the left, so 50% of Reform gains were in places were most votes were for parties of the left....
by Steve Peers
Voters wanted it so much, they voted her party 4th in England and Wales, and 5th in Scotland
May 12, 2026 at 8:40 AM
Voters wanted it so much, they voted her party 4th in England and Wales, and 5th in Scotland
Labour's processes for changing leader are hopelessly, catastrophically unsuited to government.
More than half of all prime ministers since 1945 have taken over between general elections. This is not an unusual procedure.
So it really matters when parties screw this system up... 🧵
More than half of all prime ministers since 1945 have taken over between general elections. This is not an unusual procedure.
So it really matters when parties screw this system up... 🧵
May 12, 2026 at 1:47 PM
Labour's processes for changing leader are hopelessly, catastrophically unsuited to government.
More than half of all prime ministers since 1945 have taken over between general elections. This is not an unusual procedure.
So it really matters when parties screw this system up... 🧵
More than half of all prime ministers since 1945 have taken over between general elections. This is not an unusual procedure.
So it really matters when parties screw this system up... 🧵
by Will Jennings Reposted by Tim Bale
It can be simultaneously true that there are a number of structural factors that have made British politics and government deeply unstable but also that Westminster has never really kicked its addiction to the drama of the peak Brexit years.
May 12, 2026 at 7:02 PM
It can be simultaneously true that there are a number of structural factors that have made British politics and government deeply unstable but also that Westminster has never really kicked its addiction to the drama of the peak Brexit years.
by Glen O’Hara
This is all just so utterly stupid. Reform losing councillors hand over fist, Labour in a nervous breakdown, Tories utterly craven and useless, Greens just anti-environmentalism and posturing, Lib Dems AWOL, SNP about as popular as anthrax. It's all just so... stupid.
May 12, 2026 at 8:55 AM
This is all just so utterly stupid. Reform losing councillors hand over fist, Labour in a nervous breakdown, Tories utterly craven and useless, Greens just anti-environmentalism and posturing, Lib Dems AWOL, SNP about as popular as anthrax. It's all just so... stupid.
by Will Jennings Reposted by Martín Lodge
Just re-reading 'Brexit, the tides and Canute: the fracturing politics of the British state' written by @martinlodge.bsky.social and me in 2018, and maybe we were not entirely wrong...
Brexit, the tides and Canute: the fracturing politics of the British state
The result and aftermath of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union has generated considerable attention, not just among observers of British politics. Even if some of wider con...
www.tandfonline.com
May 12, 2026 at 12:16 AM
Just re-reading 'Brexit, the tides and Canute: the fracturing politics of the British state' written by @martinlodge.bsky.social and me in 2018, and maybe we were not entirely wrong...
Wes Streeting would be the final nail in Labour's coffin. More neoliberalism, more privatisation, more austerity, more grovelling to economic power, when we desperately want change.
May 11, 2026 at 7:26 PM
Wes Streeting would be the final nail in Labour's coffin. More neoliberalism, more privatisation, more austerity, more grovelling to economic power, when we desperately want change.
Reposted by Gillian Douglas, Richard Moorhead
Reform UK claimed to have the “best vetting in the country”.
Their candidates told a different story.
Here are some with records of racism, antisemitism, Islamophobia, conspiracy theories and links to far-right groups.
They are now in office and must be held to account. 🧵
Their candidates told a different story.
Here are some with records of racism, antisemitism, Islamophobia, conspiracy theories and links to far-right groups.
They are now in office and must be held to account. 🧵
May 11, 2026 at 6:31 PM
Reform UK claimed to have the “best vetting in the country”.
Their candidates told a different story.
Here are some with records of racism, antisemitism, Islamophobia, conspiracy theories and links to far-right groups.
They are now in office and must be held to account. 🧵
Their candidates told a different story.
Here are some with records of racism, antisemitism, Islamophobia, conspiracy theories and links to far-right groups.
They are now in office and must be held to account. 🧵
by Anand Menon Reposted by Jonathan Portes
Your one stop - one hour - shop to hear from the experts what happened at the local elections, and what it means ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Unpacking the local elections 2026 - UK in a changing Europe
To dissect the details of the results of the local elections, UK in a Changing Europe is bringing together some of its expert pollsters.
ukandeu.ac.uk
May 12, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Your one stop - one hour - shop to hear from the experts what happened at the local elections, and what it means ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
Where Reform has control of local councils, we will be changing the rules on procurement and will replace outdated systems based on transparency and best value for money with an exciting new system based on who gives Reform UK a £200,000 donation.
May 11, 2026 at 7:20 PM
Where Reform has control of local councils, we will be changing the rules on procurement and will replace outdated systems based on transparency and best value for money with an exciting new system based on who gives Reform UK a £200,000 donation.
"One potential outcome, then, is a more divided, discontented and unstable politics that renders post-Brexit Britain ungovernable for a period of time at least."
May 12, 2026 at 12:18 AM
"One potential outcome, then, is a more divided, discontented and unstable politics that renders post-Brexit Britain ungovernable for a period of time at least."
Labour under Blair, Brown, Corbyn and Ed M always had a theory of growth. It changed depending on leader but there was some intellectual muscle behind it and coherent policies across a range of ministries. This has been the crucial gap under Starmer.
I think Labour thinking here has gone backwards since 2015.
The Ed M ‘responsible capitalism’ agenda was a genuinely interesting engagement with the varieties of capitalism literature and how to change institutions to get different outcomes.
The agenda since 2024 has been “make companies do things”.
The Ed M ‘responsible capitalism’ agenda was a genuinely interesting engagement with the varieties of capitalism literature and how to change institutions to get different outcomes.
The agenda since 2024 has been “make companies do things”.
May 12, 2026 at 3:34 PM
Labour under Blair, Brown, Corbyn and Ed M always had a theory of growth. It changed depending on leader but there was some intellectual muscle behind it and coherent policies across a range of ministries. This has been the crucial gap under Starmer.
by Glen O’Hara
Fourth Reform Councillor gone in just four days. Remember, this is your future if Labour screw this up.
May 12, 2026 at 7:32 AM
Fourth Reform Councillor gone in just four days. Remember, this is your future if Labour screw this up.
by Glen O’Hara Reposted by Steven H. Seggie
Labour has a moral responsibility to keep Farage and Reform UK out of power. That being so, they only have one way forward. Maybe I don't like it, maybe you don't like it, but just look at the numbers. They only have one option.
May 12, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Labour has a moral responsibility to keep Farage and Reform UK out of power. That being so, they only have one way forward. Maybe I don't like it, maybe you don't like it, but just look at the numbers. They only have one option.
The whole UK political media:
May 11, 2026 at 8:03 PM
The whole UK political media:
Reposted by Steve Peers
UK (London), local elections:
Final result (vote share)
LAB-S&D: 25.6% (-16.6)
GPEW-G/EFA: 22.3% (+10.5)
CON~ECR: 20.0% (-6.2)
REFORM~NI: 13.0% (+13.0)
LDEM-RE: 12.4% (-1.7)
+/- vs. 2022 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/uk
Final result (vote share)
LAB-S&D: 25.6% (-16.6)
GPEW-G/EFA: 22.3% (+10.5)
CON~ECR: 20.0% (-6.2)
REFORM~NI: 13.0% (+13.0)
LDEM-RE: 12.4% (-1.7)
+/- vs. 2022 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/uk
May 11, 2026 at 10:56 PM
UK (London), local elections:
Final result (vote share)
LAB-S&D: 25.6% (-16.6)
GPEW-G/EFA: 22.3% (+10.5)
CON~ECR: 20.0% (-6.2)
REFORM~NI: 13.0% (+13.0)
LDEM-RE: 12.4% (-1.7)
+/- vs. 2022 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/uk
Final result (vote share)
LAB-S&D: 25.6% (-16.6)
GPEW-G/EFA: 22.3% (+10.5)
CON~ECR: 20.0% (-6.2)
REFORM~NI: 13.0% (+13.0)
LDEM-RE: 12.4% (-1.7)
+/- vs. 2022 election
➤ https://europeelects.eu/uk