#Forcings
Zhao, Trajkovic, Kaltenborn, Gurwicz, Nowack, Rolnick, Boussard: Learning Hierarchical Causal Representations of the Effects of Forcings on Temperature in Climate Models https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.30995 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.30995 https://arxiv.org/html/2609.30995
September 28, 2026 at 6:43 AM
Our takeaway: if you need conservative carbon removal estimates or an accurate picture of alkalinity loss pathways, the time resolution of the meteorological forcings likely matters, and it’s worth testing the sensitivity in your model setup before landing one way or the other.
September 25, 2026 at 4:36 PM
Our planets history is telling us we have a fuckton of heat and sea lvl rise already baked in based on past and current CO2 ppm and total greenhouse climate forcings.

Yet there are still top scientists who previously talked about it being possible to stay below 1.5 C that are now talking about 2.0C
September 25, 2026 at 3:46 PM
arXiv📈🤖
Fingerprint Analysis for Climate Change Detection and Attribution under a Latent Factor Model
By Li, Li
September 16, 2026 at 12:09 AM
arXiv📈🤖
Fingerprint Analysis for Climate Change Detection and Attribution under a Latent Factor Model
By Li, Li
September 15, 2026 at 7:40 PM
arXiv📈🤖
Fingerprint Analysis for Climate Change Detection and Attribution under a Latent Factor Model
By Li, Li
September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM
'A staggering marine heatwave is ongoing off Baja California, where waters are up to 14°F (8°C) above normal.

NOAA is categorizing it as a severe to locally extreme marine heatwave. These very warm waters extending up to SoCal are helping drive the region’s record-humid summer'

Colin McCarthy [x]
September 12, 2026 at 3:19 AM
Yep, the climate doesn't do straight lines.
Always jumpy, snappy even, even under slow natural forcings.
We've given it a powerful boot over mere decades, so the next hundred years will be alarmingly unlike the last!
No equilibrium in our lifetimes.
September 12, 2026 at 12:46 AM
As someone who works w/the Navier-Stokes & Euler eqns all the time, I still have no idea what kind of flows and/or forcings are involved in the 'blowup' examples being discussed in the math community right now. Does anyone here? Are they achievable in the real world? If so, why do we not see them?
September 9, 2026 at 12:23 PM
This is working with the Córdoba-Martínez-Zoroa algo for constructing forcings, so it's more amenable to brute forcing than other Clay Prize problems. In fact, people have thought brute forcing a forcing by LLM was within the realm of the possible
September 8, 2026 at 8:01 PM
Volcanic Eruptions Temporarily Weaken Inter Basin Coupling Across Tropical Oceans
A new study that combines paleoclimate data and climate models suggests that large volcanic eruptions can disrupt the relationship between atmospheric circulations of the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans. In addition, human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are now driving an unprecedented breakdown in inter-basin coupling, according to researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). Volcanism can temporarily weaken connections between ocean basins, but anthropogenic forcings in recent decades have caused an "exceptional" shift in the relationship between Indian and Pacific Ocean climate variability, according to a Nature Communications study, " Climate conditions in the Indian Ocean typically follow the behavior of the Pacific Ocean. However, since the 1980s, scientists have observed a breakdown of this co-variability linked to climate change. With less than a hundred years of quality instrumental data, it is difficult to assess how unusual these recent changes really are. To provide long term context, WHOI scientists used tropical paleoclimate archives - corals, tree rings, and stalagmites - to extend the record of Indian and Pacific Ocean climate back to the early 1600s. Consistent with modern observations, the paleo-records show that the two ocean basins were largely coupled for most of the last four hundred years. But a...
www.azocleantech.com
September 8, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Increase in global warming potential of atmospheric black carbon since 1750
Jacobson, M. Z. Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols. Nature 409, 695–697 (2001). Fu, B. et al. Short-lived climate forcers have long-term climate impacts via the carbon–climate feedback. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 851–855 (2020). Wang, J. et al. Unified theoretical framework for black carbon mixing state allows greater accuracy of climate effect estimation. Nat. Commun. 14, 2703 (2023). Andreae, M. O. & Ramanathan, V. Climate’s dark forcings. Science 340, 280–281 (2013). Hodnebrog, Ø, Myhre, G. & Samset, B. H. How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect. Nat. Commun. 5, 5065 (2014). Chen, X. et al. Formation of char-like, fused-ring aromatic structures from a nonpyrogenic pathway during decomposition of wheat straw. J. Agric. Food Chem. 68, 2607–2614 (2020). Keiluweit, M., Nico, P. S., Johnson, M. G. & Kleber, M. Dynamic molecular structure of plant biomass-derived black carbon (biochar). Environ. Sci. Technol. 44, 1247–1253 (2010). Han, Y. et al. Evaluation of the thermal/optical reflectance method for discrimination between char- and soot-EC. Chemosphere 69, 569–574 (2007). Han, Y. et al. High time- and size-resolved measurements of PM and chemical composition from coal combustion: implications for the EC formation process. Environ. Sci. Technol. 52,...
www.nature.com
September 8, 2026 at 12:33 PM