One of the most shocking graphs I've made.
Using NASA CERES data, IPCC forcings and very low-, mid- and very high- climate feedbacks multiplied by the NASA GISS temperature trend.
If the NASA satellite data is right, the IPCC forcings and feedbacks are likely all wrong
More soon
Using NASA CERES data, IPCC forcings and very low-, mid- and very high- climate feedbacks multiplied by the NASA GISS temperature trend.
If the NASA satellite data is right, the IPCC forcings and feedbacks are likely all wrong
More soon
February 13, 2025 at 9:34 PM
One of the most shocking graphs I've made.
Using NASA CERES data, IPCC forcings and very low-, mid- and very high- climate feedbacks multiplied by the NASA GISS temperature trend.
If the NASA satellite data is right, the IPCC forcings and feedbacks are likely all wrong
More soon
Using NASA CERES data, IPCC forcings and very low-, mid- and very high- climate feedbacks multiplied by the NASA GISS temperature trend.
If the NASA satellite data is right, the IPCC forcings and feedbacks are likely all wrong
More soon
Humanity started to change Earth’s atmosphere about 6,000 year ago!
This graph visualizes the total annual greenhouse gas forcings, aerosol forcings and the net effects of both.
It also includes NASA CERES satellite observation based Earth's Energy Imbalance and how it changed:
This graph visualizes the total annual greenhouse gas forcings, aerosol forcings and the net effects of both.
It also includes NASA CERES satellite observation based Earth's Energy Imbalance and how it changed:
September 17, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Humanity started to change Earth’s atmosphere about 6,000 year ago!
This graph visualizes the total annual greenhouse gas forcings, aerosol forcings and the net effects of both.
It also includes NASA CERES satellite observation based Earth's Energy Imbalance and how it changed:
This graph visualizes the total annual greenhouse gas forcings, aerosol forcings and the net effects of both.
It also includes NASA CERES satellite observation based Earth's Energy Imbalance and how it changed:
Or the total greenhouse gas forcings at least..
May 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Or the total greenhouse gas forcings at least..
Two-thirds (66%) of the warming from flying come from non-CO₂ forcings, including contrails. 🙃
November 28, 2023 at 10:50 AM
Two-thirds (66%) of the warming from flying come from non-CO₂ forcings, including contrails. 🙃
Tropospheric Water Vapor increases because of warming and is therefore a possitive FEEDBACK, amplifying warming from forcings.
Stratospheric Water Vapor and tropospheric ozone are FORCINGS, because they form (mainly) because of methane emissions.
Crucial IPCC graphs:
Stratospheric Water Vapor and tropospheric ozone are FORCINGS, because they form (mainly) because of methane emissions.
Crucial IPCC graphs:
April 22, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Tropospheric Water Vapor increases because of warming and is therefore a possitive FEEDBACK, amplifying warming from forcings.
Stratospheric Water Vapor and tropospheric ozone are FORCINGS, because they form (mainly) because of methane emissions.
Crucial IPCC graphs:
Stratospheric Water Vapor and tropospheric ozone are FORCINGS, because they form (mainly) because of methane emissions.
Crucial IPCC graphs:
There's very little reason to assume 30-year linear warming extrapolation.
Emissions, forcings, Earth's Energy Imbalance and (especially variability corrected) temperature observations all indicate acceleration of global warming.
We should prepare for reaching +2.0°C soon!
Emissions, forcings, Earth's Energy Imbalance and (especially variability corrected) temperature observations all indicate acceleration of global warming.
We should prepare for reaching +2.0°C soon!
December 14, 2024 at 11:52 AM
There's very little reason to assume 30-year linear warming extrapolation.
Emissions, forcings, Earth's Energy Imbalance and (especially variability corrected) temperature observations all indicate acceleration of global warming.
We should prepare for reaching +2.0°C soon!
Emissions, forcings, Earth's Energy Imbalance and (especially variability corrected) temperature observations all indicate acceleration of global warming.
We should prepare for reaching +2.0°C soon!
The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index is an index and not meant represent all forcings and feedbacks.
The total (IPCC methodology based) greenhouse gas forcing in 2024 was about 4.1 W/m², or 573 ppm.
See forcings and feedback estimates here:
The total (IPCC methodology based) greenhouse gas forcing in 2024 was about 4.1 W/m², or 573 ppm.
See forcings and feedback estimates here:
January 7, 2026 at 6:43 PM
The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index is an index and not meant represent all forcings and feedbacks.
The total (IPCC methodology based) greenhouse gas forcing in 2024 was about 4.1 W/m², or 573 ppm.
See forcings and feedback estimates here:
The total (IPCC methodology based) greenhouse gas forcing in 2024 was about 4.1 W/m², or 573 ppm.
See forcings and feedback estimates here:
Article and underlying paper don't distangle forcings vs feedbacks/variability....
December 27, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Article and underlying paper don't distangle forcings vs feedbacks/variability....
The new WMO State of the Climate report has a section by Gavin Schmidt and me on attributing exceptional 2023 and 2024 warmth.
We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery:
We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery:
March 19, 2025 at 2:10 AM
The new WMO State of the Climate report has a section by Gavin Schmidt and me on attributing exceptional 2023 and 2024 warmth.
We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery:
We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery:
Ferdinand Glacier (Svalbard)
1908 | 2018
Svalbard is the most rapidly warming place on Earth! 🔥
We are going back there to early Holocene glacier levels BUT
without the same forcings! ☀️ 🌍
We wouldn't be witnessing this colapse today without human emissions. 🏭
journals.muni.cz/CPR/article/...
1908 | 2018
Svalbard is the most rapidly warming place on Earth! 🔥
We are going back there to early Holocene glacier levels BUT
without the same forcings! ☀️ 🌍
We wouldn't be witnessing this colapse today without human emissions. 🏭
journals.muni.cz/CPR/article/...
January 23, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Ferdinand Glacier (Svalbard)
1908 | 2018
Svalbard is the most rapidly warming place on Earth! 🔥
We are going back there to early Holocene glacier levels BUT
without the same forcings! ☀️ 🌍
We wouldn't be witnessing this colapse today without human emissions. 🏭
journals.muni.cz/CPR/article/...
1908 | 2018
Svalbard is the most rapidly warming place on Earth! 🔥
We are going back there to early Holocene glacier levels BUT
without the same forcings! ☀️ 🌍
We wouldn't be witnessing this colapse today without human emissions. 🏭
journals.muni.cz/CPR/article/...
It takes a lot of heat to increase the temperature of water and land. That causes a delay of decades between greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and temperature and weather impacts.
Despite these records, we've ain't seen nothing yet.
Despite these records, we've ain't seen nothing yet.
June 25, 2026 at 9:27 AM
It takes a lot of heat to increase the temperature of water and land. That causes a delay of decades between greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and temperature and weather impacts.
Despite these records, we've ain't seen nothing yet.
Despite these records, we've ain't seen nothing yet.
IPCC models might deem it highly unlikely, but Global warming reaching +2.0°C next decade is much more likely when considering NASA CERES satellite observations based climate forcings and feedbacks.
We'd better assume observations are more indicative of reality than models alone:
We'd better assume observations are more indicative of reality than models alone:
February 6, 2026 at 9:33 PM
IPCC models might deem it highly unlikely, but Global warming reaching +2.0°C next decade is much more likely when considering NASA CERES satellite observations based climate forcings and feedbacks.
We'd better assume observations are more indicative of reality than models alone:
We'd better assume observations are more indicative of reality than models alone:
Here is the (open access) scientific paper for folks interested in digging deeper:
Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections
Evaluation of uninitialized multidecadal climate model future projection performance provides a concrete test of model skill
The quasi-linear relationship between model/observed forcings and temper...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 23, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Here is the (open access) scientific paper for folks interested in digging deeper:
We need to do everything in our power to make sure this doesn't become reality.
Even if there were only a 1% chance of this coming true, through different forcings and feedbacks, it would result in a global apocalypse beyond imagination.
Even if there were only a 1% chance of this coming true, through different forcings and feedbacks, it would result in a global apocalypse beyond imagination.
January 27, 2025 at 6:15 PM
We need to do everything in our power to make sure this doesn't become reality.
Even if there were only a 1% chance of this coming true, through different forcings and feedbacks, it would result in a global apocalypse beyond imagination.
Even if there were only a 1% chance of this coming true, through different forcings and feedbacks, it would result in a global apocalypse beyond imagination.
Including all GREENHOUSE GAS FORCINGS we've caused to be added to the atmosphere, we ALREADY REACHED the effect of DOUBLING CO2.
January 6, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Including all GREENHOUSE GAS FORCINGS we've caused to be added to the atmosphere, we ALREADY REACHED the effect of DOUBLING CO2.
Earth heats up because she absorbs more sunlight than she radiates heat to space.
Here are the monthly Outgoing Longwave and Absorbed Solar Radiation Anomalies and the climatology corrected Net flux values.
There's a lot going on here: Forcings, feedbacks, variability.
More soon.
Here are the monthly Outgoing Longwave and Absorbed Solar Radiation Anomalies and the climatology corrected Net flux values.
There's a lot going on here: Forcings, feedbacks, variability.
More soon.
March 8, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Earth heats up because she absorbs more sunlight than she radiates heat to space.
Here are the monthly Outgoing Longwave and Absorbed Solar Radiation Anomalies and the climatology corrected Net flux values.
There's a lot going on here: Forcings, feedbacks, variability.
More soon.
Here are the monthly Outgoing Longwave and Absorbed Solar Radiation Anomalies and the climatology corrected Net flux values.
There's a lot going on here: Forcings, feedbacks, variability.
More soon.
This graph uses the same data but uses the unit W/m² for the total greenhouse gas forcings relative to 1750.
It looks somewhat less extreme than the CO₂-equivalent graph, because the forcing of CO₂ increase non-linearly with concentration increase.
It looks somewhat less extreme than the CO₂-equivalent graph, because the forcing of CO₂ increase non-linearly with concentration increase.
April 22, 2025 at 3:05 PM
This graph uses the same data but uses the unit W/m² for the total greenhouse gas forcings relative to 1750.
It looks somewhat less extreme than the CO₂-equivalent graph, because the forcing of CO₂ increase non-linearly with concentration increase.
It looks somewhat less extreme than the CO₂-equivalent graph, because the forcing of CO₂ increase non-linearly with concentration increase.
Attribution of observed pan-Arctic extreme fire events to anthropogenic forcings
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
via @ioppublishing.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
via @ioppublishing.bsky.social
Attribution of observed pan-Arctic extreme fire events to anthropogenic forcings
Attribution of observed pan-Arctic extreme fire events to anthropogenic forcings, Fiedler, Lukas, Barkhordarian, Armineh, Brovkin, Victor, Baehr, Johanna
doi.org
March 24, 2026 at 9:53 AM
Attribution of observed pan-Arctic extreme fire events to anthropogenic forcings
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
via @ioppublishing.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
via @ioppublishing.bsky.social
These are greenhouse gas CO₂ equivalents from @noaa.gov, excluding the forcings of tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor.
Including all greenhouse gases, we are already at ~560 ppm CO₂ equivalent.
That's a doubling from preindustrial levels.
Excluding the dimming of aerosols.
Including all greenhouse gases, we are already at ~560 ppm CO₂ equivalent.
That's a doubling from preindustrial levels.
Excluding the dimming of aerosols.
March 7, 2025 at 3:36 PM
These are greenhouse gas CO₂ equivalents from @noaa.gov, excluding the forcings of tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor.
Including all greenhouse gases, we are already at ~560 ppm CO₂ equivalent.
That's a doubling from preindustrial levels.
Excluding the dimming of aerosols.
Including all greenhouse gases, we are already at ~560 ppm CO₂ equivalent.
That's a doubling from preindustrial levels.
Excluding the dimming of aerosols.
Pro-tip for journalists:
Whether it's UNEP, Bill Gates or anyone else making these statements, ask them for their math.
The future non-CO₂ greenhouse gas- and aerosols forcings (that what forces the climate to change) are 'Not Available'...
And climate sensitivity is higher than assumed.
Whether it's UNEP, Bill Gates or anyone else making these statements, ask them for their math.
The future non-CO₂ greenhouse gas- and aerosols forcings (that what forces the climate to change) are 'Not Available'...
And climate sensitivity is higher than assumed.
November 13, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Pro-tip for journalists:
Whether it's UNEP, Bill Gates or anyone else making these statements, ask them for their math.
The future non-CO₂ greenhouse gas- and aerosols forcings (that what forces the climate to change) are 'Not Available'...
And climate sensitivity is higher than assumed.
Whether it's UNEP, Bill Gates or anyone else making these statements, ask them for their math.
The future non-CO₂ greenhouse gas- and aerosols forcings (that what forces the climate to change) are 'Not Available'...
And climate sensitivity is higher than assumed.
Really nice data-driven explainer of recent causes of global warming from @hausfath.bsky.social www.theclimatebrink.com/p/exploring-...
Exploring the drivers of modern global warming
By using a simple climate model, we can disentangle greenhouse gases, aerosols, and natural forcings.
www.theclimatebrink.com
January 6, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Really nice data-driven explainer of recent causes of global warming from @hausfath.bsky.social www.theclimatebrink.com/p/exploring-...
Many climate modelers treat aerosol forcings like this (see my profile picture).
That's why we need real world data, to improve the models.
And the real world data looks worse than most models.
That's why we need real world data, to improve the models.
And the real world data looks worse than most models.
January 4, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Many climate modelers treat aerosol forcings like this (see my profile picture).
That's why we need real world data, to improve the models.
And the real world data looks worse than most models.
That's why we need real world data, to improve the models.
And the real world data looks worse than most models.
#OceanHeat
#EarthsEnergyImbalance
#EquilibriumClimateSensitivity
#Forcings
#Feedbacks
#RateOfChange
#Currents
#Oscillations
#PolarVortex
#JetStream
#ExtremeWeather
#BiodiversityLoss
#Extinction
#ThermalExpansion
#SeaLevelRise
#Oil
#Coal
#Gas
#FossilFuelPollution
#AnthropogenicGlobalWarming
#EarthsEnergyImbalance
#EquilibriumClimateSensitivity
#Forcings
#Feedbacks
#RateOfChange
#Currents
#Oscillations
#PolarVortex
#JetStream
#ExtremeWeather
#BiodiversityLoss
#Extinction
#ThermalExpansion
#SeaLevelRise
#Oil
#Coal
#Gas
#FossilFuelPollution
#AnthropogenicGlobalWarming
As of September 22nd, the Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperature is record hot, at 1.68°C (3.02°F) above the 1991-2020 mean. This breaks the previous record for the day set in 2024 by over 0.51°C (0.92°F). And no hurricanes!
We live in interesting times.
We live in interesting times.
September 25, 2026 at 2:09 PM
more info on the claim they keep re-surfacing, here (note date):
Science Under Attack
The first paper , published in 2017, utilizes the mathematical tool of dimensional analysis to identify which climatic forcings govern the mean surface temperature of the rocky planets and moons in t...
www.scienceunderattack.com
June 21, 2026 at 9:51 PM
more info on the claim they keep re-surfacing, here (note date):