OSPB presented a forecast broadly consistent with Legislative Council: modest growth ahead but rising inflationary pressures, diesel and gas price risk, and a substantial risk of recession if financial-market or geopolitical shocks materialize.

Dr. Rich Wobekind told commissioners the baseline forecast contains no recession but downside risks remain; he highlighted slower employment growth nationally and in Colorado, rising housing-inflation components, and sectoral exposure for Adams County tied to warehousing, construction and hospitality.

Global bond yields have surged to their highest levels in decades, signaling growing fiscal and inflation risks for major economies. The U.S., Germany, and Japan saw record-breaking borrowing costs as government debt, geopolitical tensions, and AI investments strain financial markets. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.73%, nearing 5%, while Japan's 10-year bonds reached a three-decade high near 3%. European nations like Germany and France also faced elevated borrowing costs, with Germany's 10-year Bund yield hitting a 12-year peak. Analysts attribute the rise to unsustainable government debt, the prolonged Iran conflict, and AI infrastructure spending. The New York Fed noted investors demand an extra 80 basis points for U.S. debt, reflecting heightened risk perceptions. Rising yields threaten stock markets and household mortgages, with experts warning of potential policy challenges. The U.S. Treasury's intervention to stabilize the yen and declining foreign holdings of U.S. debt further complicate the outlook. Japan's shifting investment focus from U.S. to domestic bonds adds pressure on global markets, highlighting the interconnected risks facing modern economies.

via NBC News Top Stories — The affordability crisis is revving up again. The war in Iran and Trump’s tariffs are pushing prices up and raising fears of renewed inflation.

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Bank of Canada holds key rate at 2.25% amid rising inflation risks from Middle East conflict. Canadian economy shows strain.

Powell underscores robust labor market, elevated inflation risks in Fed's economic report

Economists discuss inflation risks as oil prices near $75 per barrel and potential spikes.

David Neal warned on Mar 26, 2026 that inflation risks remain elevated; IFM outlined greater emphasis on real assets and tactical reweighting to protect real returns.

Forecast predicts positive GDP growth while inflation remains a concern for policymakers.

University of Michigan forecasters presented a joint U.S. and Michigan outlook showing continued GDP growth supported by AI‑related capital investment, a recent reacceleration in core inflation that could alter Fed policy, and downside risk from elevated oil prices tied to Middle East tensions.

Nomura Holdings now expects the Federal Reserve to begin easing policy with a 25bp rate cut in September, citing a weakening US labour market and ebbing inflation risks. * The bank’s economists forecast two further quarter-point cuts in December and March. The shift marks an earlier call than Nomura’s previous view, which anticipated the first move later in the year. While many analysts had already pencilled in a cut within the next three months, Nomura’s adjustment underscores growing confidence that the Fed will act sooner. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

From analysts at JP Morgan on Trump's attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell: * Any reduction in the independence of the Fed would add upside risks to an inflation outlook that is already subject to upward pressures from tariffs and somewhat elevated inflation expectations. * Moreover, market participants would likely demand greater compensation for inflation and inflation risks, thereby increasing longer-term interest rates, weighing on the outlook for economic activity and worsening the fiscal position. * It has been hoped that these adverse consequences would dissuade the president from threatening Fed independence, though so far the president has often followed through on his intentions. If 'Mean Girls' were made today it'd look something like this: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump policies may slow growth and raise inflation, complicating future economic forecasts and decisions.

Investing.com -- BofA Securities has raised its forecast for the United Kingdom’s economic growth in 2025 to 1.3%, citing stronger-than-expected second-quarter results but warning that underlying momentum remains fragile, in a note dated Friday. The revision, up from its earlier projection of 1.2%, comes as the economy grapples with tariffs, higher taxes and looming fiscal tightening. “We slightly raise growth this year to reflect stronger outturns, but highlight that underlying growth is weak amid tariffs and taxes,” the brokerage said. The brokerage noted that growth in the second quarter was supported by government spending and inventories, but private domestic demand contracted, driven by weak consumer spending and falling business investment. Exports also came under pressure, with goods shipments to the United States down 27% in value as tariffs took hold. Inflation forecasts were also revised higher. Consumer prices are now expected to rise 3.4% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 before returning to the Bank of England’s 2% target in 2027. “We raise our 2025 inflation forecast from 3.2% to 3.4% and 2026 inflation forecast from 2.2% to 2.4% on the back of higher-than-expected outturns, higher oil prices and announced 2% increase in Ofgem price cap in October,” the brokerage said. On monetary policy, Bank of America said it continues to expect two interest rate cuts, one in November and another in February, bringing rates to 3.5% by early 2026. But it stressed that the schedule is far from assured. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. “Timing of future cuts is becoming more uncertain due to the BoE’s concerns about inflation persistence,” the brokerage said. The brokerage also flagged the government’s upcoming Autumn Budget on Nov. 26 as a point of risk. It estimated that fiscal headroom could shrink by £20 billion to £30 billion, forcing the government toward tax increases. “This is likely to add downside risks to growth in late 2025 and 2026,” the brokerage said. In its assessment, Bank of America said that while the UK economy has avoided a sharper slowdown, growth remains “slightly below-trend” and vulnerable to fiscal tightening and external trade pressures. The raised forecast to 1.3% reflects near-term strength, but the brokerage emphasized its “conviction on the terminal rate of 3.5%,” underscoring a cautious outlook for the years ahead. Which stocks should you consider in your very next trade? The best opportunities often hide in plain sight—buried among thousands of stocks you'd never have time to research individually. That's why smart investors use our Stock Screener with 50+ predefined screens and 160+ customizable filters to surface hidden gems instantly. For example, the Piotroski's Picks method averages 23% annual returns by focusing on financial strength, and you can get it as a standalone screen. Momentum Masters catches stocks gaining serious traction, while Blue-Chip Bargains finds undervalued giants. With screens for dividends, growth, value, and more, you'll discover opportunities others miss. Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns!

Investing.com - BCA has downgraded Egypt from overweight to neutral in emerging market domestic bond portfolios due to resurgent inflation risks, despite the Central Bank of Egypt maintaining its policy rate. The Central Bank of Egypt recently kept its policy rate unchanged at 24.5%, citing easing inflationary pressures in the country. However, BCA’s Emerging Markets strategists believe the period of disinflation is coming to an end. Very strong credit growth and robust fiscal expenditure have driven private consumption higher in Egypt, while large trade and current account deficits are creating additional inflationary pressure, according to BCA. The firm notes that capital inflows to Egypt are dwindling and foreign reserves remain limited, which is expected to cause the Egyptian pound to weaken soon, further amplifying inflation risks in the economy. BCA recently recommended that investors book profits on long 3-year local currency bonds, as the Egyptian central bank will likely be forced to raise rates in the coming months to combat these renewed inflation pressures. This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?

IMF Backs Dollar: Still A Global Safe Haven.