"Person wondering if it's okay to lean their seat back"
October 31, 2026 at 2:46 PM
"Person wondering if it's okay to lean their seat back"
Virgin Cook: ermm Michigan is a tossup idk
Chad Sabato: Kansas lean D
Chad Sabato: Kansas lean D
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has dropped their FINAL ratings for the 2026 midterms:
SENATE: 53D-47R
GOVERNORS: 28D-22R
HOUSE: 239D-196R
SENATE: 53D-47R
GOVERNORS: 28D-22R
HOUSE: 239D-196R
November 2, 2026 at 5:37 PM
Virgin Cook: ermm Michigan is a tossup idk
Chad Sabato: Kansas lean D
Chad Sabato: Kansas lean D
texas: lean d (dem flip)
the early vote numbers and the polling actually might point to a race that is more dem than 'lean' here - hispanic voters are showing up en masse, dem enthusiasm is through the roof, and paxton is a horrendous candidate
but... it's texas, so vibes say 'lean' until tuesday
the early vote numbers and the polling actually might point to a race that is more dem than 'lean' here - hispanic voters are showing up en masse, dem enthusiasm is through the roof, and paxton is a horrendous candidate
but... it's texas, so vibes say 'lean' until tuesday
November 1, 2026 at 4:47 PM
texas: lean d (dem flip)
the early vote numbers and the polling actually might point to a race that is more dem than 'lean' here - hispanic voters are showing up en masse, dem enthusiasm is through the roof, and paxton is a horrendous candidate
but... it's texas, so vibes say 'lean' until tuesday
the early vote numbers and the polling actually might point to a race that is more dem than 'lean' here - hispanic voters are showing up en masse, dem enthusiasm is through the roof, and paxton is a horrendous candidate
but... it's texas, so vibes say 'lean' until tuesday
Polling USA Final Senate Rating Changes:
🔵 Michigan: DEM Lean -> DEM Likely
🔵 Texas: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Maine: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Kansas: GOP Tilt -> DEM Tilt
🔴 Montana: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
🔴 Florida: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...
🔵 Michigan: DEM Lean -> DEM Likely
🔵 Texas: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Maine: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Kansas: GOP Tilt -> DEM Tilt
🔴 Montana: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
🔴 Florida: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...
Democrats Are Poised for a Historic Midterm Victory
From Texas to Maine, Democrats Are Making Gains as Trump’s Unpopularity Drags Down Republicans Nationwide
unitedstatespolling.com
November 2, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Polling USA Final Senate Rating Changes:
🔵 Michigan: DEM Lean -> DEM Likely
🔵 Texas: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Maine: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Kansas: GOP Tilt -> DEM Tilt
🔴 Montana: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
🔴 Florida: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...
🔵 Michigan: DEM Lean -> DEM Likely
🔵 Texas: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Maine: DEM Tilt -> DEM Lean
🔵 Kansas: GOP Tilt -> DEM Tilt
🔴 Montana: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
🔴 Florida: GOP Likely -> GOP Lean
unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...
fuck it. TX-GOV, lean D.
November 1, 2026 at 3:28 AM
fuck it. TX-GOV, lean D.
you can lean on me
November 2, 2026 at 1:53 PM
you can lean on me
A lot of Lean R seats may well flip remember
November 2, 2026 at 5:38 PM
A lot of Lean R seats may well flip remember
Lean en abierto ¡y suscríbanse a Analítica!
ernestoekaizer.substack.com/p/no-dejes-q...
ernestoekaizer.substack.com/p/no-dejes-q...
October 31, 2026 at 7:43 AM
Lean en abierto ¡y suscríbanse a Analítica!
ernestoekaizer.substack.com/p/no-dejes-q...
ernestoekaizer.substack.com/p/no-dejes-q...
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): House
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
October 29, 2026 at 4:01 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (10/29): House
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
FL-4: Likely-R → Lean R
NY-17: Tossup → Lean D
PA-1: Lean R → Tossup
Democrats have an 80% probability of winning the House, with a forecasted total of 238 seats. 10 seats remain Tossups.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
the best parties have a gigachub to lean against!
for @pinku-do.bsky.social ! thanks!
for @pinku-do.bsky.social ! thanks!
November 3, 2026 at 4:32 PM
the best parties have a gigachub to lean against!
for @pinku-do.bsky.social ! thanks!
for @pinku-do.bsky.social ! thanks!
There’s a common assumption that most military voters lean Republican.
With “Low T Pete” Hegseth in charge, I wouldn’t be so sure that holds.
Hegseth isn’t strengthening our military. He’s giving our troops reasons to walk away from it.
#SupportTheTroops
🧵
With “Low T Pete” Hegseth in charge, I wouldn’t be so sure that holds.
Hegseth isn’t strengthening our military. He’s giving our troops reasons to walk away from it.
#SupportTheTroops
🧵
November 3, 2026 at 2:34 AM
There’s a common assumption that most military voters lean Republican.
With “Low T Pete” Hegseth in charge, I wouldn’t be so sure that holds.
Hegseth isn’t strengthening our military. He’s giving our troops reasons to walk away from it.
#SupportTheTroops
🧵
With “Low T Pete” Hegseth in charge, I wouldn’t be so sure that holds.
Hegseth isn’t strengthening our military. He’s giving our troops reasons to walk away from it.
#SupportTheTroops
🧵
Lean R Louisiana
November 2, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Lean R Louisiana
Major shifts:
AZ-1: Lean D → Likely D
AZ-2: Likely R → Lean R
FL-16: Likely R → Lean R
FL-27: Likely R → Lean R
KY-6: Lean R → Tossup
OH-9: Lean D → Likely D
PA-8: Tossup → Lean D
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
AZ-1: Lean D → Likely D
AZ-2: Likely R → Lean R
FL-16: Likely R → Lean R
FL-27: Likely R → Lean R
KY-6: Lean R → Tossup
OH-9: Lean D → Likely D
PA-8: Tossup → Lean D
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
October 31, 2026 at 5:37 PM
Major shifts:
AZ-1: Lean D → Likely D
AZ-2: Likely R → Lean R
FL-16: Likely R → Lean R
FL-27: Likely R → Lean R
KY-6: Lean R → Tossup
OH-9: Lean D → Likely D
PA-8: Tossup → Lean D
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
AZ-1: Lean D → Likely D
AZ-2: Likely R → Lean R
FL-16: Likely R → Lean R
FL-27: Likely R → Lean R
KY-6: Lean R → Tossup
OH-9: Lean D → Likely D
PA-8: Tossup → Lean D
Find our full forecast, polling averages, and more on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/202...
yeah I guess if they’re going to lean into one fetish it’s better that they pick “hot redhead who will kill you”
ah yes, thw two things that are the same thing. a genderbent 12 year old and a woman from 1990s star wars books
November 2, 2026 at 3:10 AM
yeah I guess if they’re going to lean into one fetish it’s better that they pick “hot redhead who will kill you”
Could use someone to lean on. . .
November 2, 2026 at 9:21 PM
Could use someone to lean on. . .
south carolina: lean r (republican hold)
this is a bonkers race to put in the 'lean' category but darline graham has absolutely no business in the senate and - like other southern states - Black voters are PISSED at callais and showing in big numbers
imo the southern white vote is too inelastic
this is a bonkers race to put in the 'lean' category but darline graham has absolutely no business in the senate and - like other southern states - Black voters are PISSED at callais and showing in big numbers
imo the southern white vote is too inelastic
November 1, 2026 at 4:56 PM
south carolina: lean r (republican hold)
this is a bonkers race to put in the 'lean' category but darline graham has absolutely no business in the senate and - like other southern states - Black voters are PISSED at callais and showing in big numbers
imo the southern white vote is too inelastic
this is a bonkers race to put in the 'lean' category but darline graham has absolutely no business in the senate and - like other southern states - Black voters are PISSED at callais and showing in big numbers
imo the southern white vote is too inelastic
Gonna do this again. Here's the list of JUST the seats Crystal Ball says are lean D tomorrow (leaving out some delicious and I think likely pickup lean R seats).
Which GOP seat, if Dems flipped it, would make you most happy?
Still gonna say Scott Perry.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Which GOP seat, if Dems flipped it, would make you most happy?
Still gonna say Scott Perry.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
November 2, 2026 at 5:56 PM
Gonna do this again. Here's the list of JUST the seats Crystal Ball says are lean D tomorrow (leaving out some delicious and I think likely pickup lean R seats).
Which GOP seat, if Dems flipped it, would make you most happy?
Still gonna say Scott Perry.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Which GOP seat, if Dems flipped it, would make you most happy?
Still gonna say Scott Perry.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
maine: lean d (dem flip)
I think this is the year collins' magic runs out
she hasn't run a great campaign, trump has hurt maine badly, and I don't think she gets the ticket splitters she needs to win this - she won't get enough republicans to show up
but it's collins so I can't go past 'lean'
I think this is the year collins' magic runs out
she hasn't run a great campaign, trump has hurt maine badly, and I don't think she gets the ticket splitters she needs to win this - she won't get enough republicans to show up
but it's collins so I can't go past 'lean'
November 1, 2026 at 4:40 PM
maine: lean d (dem flip)
I think this is the year collins' magic runs out
she hasn't run a great campaign, trump has hurt maine badly, and I don't think she gets the ticket splitters she needs to win this - she won't get enough republicans to show up
but it's collins so I can't go past 'lean'
I think this is the year collins' magic runs out
she hasn't run a great campaign, trump has hurt maine badly, and I don't think she gets the ticket splitters she needs to win this - she won't get enough republicans to show up
but it's collins so I can't go past 'lean'
Lean R Louisiana? Holy
November 2, 2026 at 5:12 PM
Lean R Louisiana? Holy
i have a ChatGPT-assisted Lean proof that the number of Rs in the word "strawberry" is not three, but actually 2.8772214.
November 2, 2026 at 5:57 PM
i have a ChatGPT-assisted Lean proof that the number of Rs in the word "strawberry" is not three, but actually 2.8772214.
Their Senate prediction is:
6 Lean R->D flips (ME, OH, KS, NC, TX, AK)
4 R holds in "Lean R" states (NE, IA, SC, LA)
1 D hold in a "Lean D" state (MI)
Everything else is "Likely" or "Safe"
WILD to see LA and SC in that category
6 Lean R->D flips (ME, OH, KS, NC, TX, AK)
4 R holds in "Lean R" states (NE, IA, SC, LA)
1 D hold in a "Lean D" state (MI)
Everything else is "Likely" or "Safe"
WILD to see LA and SC in that category
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has dropped their FINAL ratings for the 2026 midterms:
SENATE: 53D-47R
GOVERNORS: 28D-22R
HOUSE: 239D-196R
SENATE: 53D-47R
GOVERNORS: 28D-22R
HOUSE: 239D-196R
November 2, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Their Senate prediction is:
6 Lean R->D flips (ME, OH, KS, NC, TX, AK)
4 R holds in "Lean R" states (NE, IA, SC, LA)
1 D hold in a "Lean D" state (MI)
Everything else is "Likely" or "Safe"
WILD to see LA and SC in that category
6 Lean R->D flips (ME, OH, KS, NC, TX, AK)
4 R holds in "Lean R" states (NE, IA, SC, LA)
1 D hold in a "Lean D" state (MI)
Everything else is "Likely" or "Safe"
WILD to see LA and SC in that category
4 Days Left! Cook shifted 12 races towards Dems today!
LEAN D
PA 8
OH 9
TOSS UP
CO 5
PA 1
SC 1
LEAN R
FL 7
FL 9
IN 5
SOLID TO LIKELY
NC 5
NC 9
NJ 2
WA 5
ALL GAS. NO BRAKES.
LEAN D
PA 8
OH 9
TOSS UP
CO 5
PA 1
SC 1
LEAN R
FL 7
FL 9
IN 5
SOLID TO LIKELY
NC 5
NC 9
NJ 2
WA 5
ALL GAS. NO BRAKES.
October 30, 2026 at 5:45 PM
4 Days Left! Cook shifted 12 races towards Dems today!
LEAN D
PA 8
OH 9
TOSS UP
CO 5
PA 1
SC 1
LEAN R
FL 7
FL 9
IN 5
SOLID TO LIKELY
NC 5
NC 9
NJ 2
WA 5
ALL GAS. NO BRAKES.
LEAN D
PA 8
OH 9
TOSS UP
CO 5
PA 1
SC 1
LEAN R
FL 7
FL 9
IN 5
SOLID TO LIKELY
NC 5
NC 9
NJ 2
WA 5
ALL GAS. NO BRAKES.
Leaning in for a kiss, please and thank you. 🫦💜
November 3, 2026 at 4:49 PM
Leaning in for a kiss, please and thank you. 🫦💜