the NYT has been doing extremely well slamming their fist down on the 'bias' button when making bias-variance tradeoffs, but someday variance is going to eat your lunch. it comes for everyone
September 24, 2026 at 4:30 PM
the NYT has been doing extremely well slamming their fist down on the 'bias' button when making bias-variance tradeoffs, but someday variance is going to eat your lunch. it comes for everyone
Embracing variance is something Democrats have traditionally avoided at any cost. Republicans are all about high variance. It would be nice to flip that script.
Allow to make this take a bit warmer:
I think if AOC or some other woman wins the nomination for the top of the ticket, they should seriously look at adding a woman in the VP slot. Double down on your strengths! Don’t shy away from *perceived* vulnerabilities.
I think if AOC or some other woman wins the nomination for the top of the ticket, they should seriously look at adding a woman in the VP slot. Double down on your strengths! Don’t shy away from *perceived* vulnerabilities.
May 30, 2026 at 6:37 PM
Embracing variance is something Democrats have traditionally avoided at any cost. Republicans are all about high variance. It would be nice to flip that script.
good variance is less enjoyable when you can’t remember what bad variance feels like
November 25, 2024 at 3:18 PM
good variance is less enjoyable when you can’t remember what bad variance feels like
⠀⠀⠀⠀𝙏𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙑𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝘼𝙪𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙩𝙮
November 29, 2025 at 9:56 PM
⠀⠀⠀⠀𝙏𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙑𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝘼𝙪𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙩𝙮
When does“variance explained” actually mean causation?
In our new preprint, Olli Saarela and I develop graph-based causal variance decompositions. The framework clarifies when components of an ordered variance decomposition have causal interpretations.
arxiv.org/abs/2608.27140
In our new preprint, Olli Saarela and I develop graph-based causal variance decompositions. The framework clarifies when components of an ordered variance decomposition have causal interpretations.
arxiv.org/abs/2608.27140
Graph-based causal variance decompositions: When "variance explained" means causation
Recursive application of the law of total variance decomposes the marginal variance of an outcome into components attributed to explanatory variables and a residual component. The resulting decomposit...
arxiv.org
September 1, 2026 at 7:58 AM
When does“variance explained” actually mean causation?
In our new preprint, Olli Saarela and I develop graph-based causal variance decompositions. The framework clarifies when components of an ordered variance decomposition have causal interpretations.
arxiv.org/abs/2608.27140
In our new preprint, Olli Saarela and I develop graph-based causal variance decompositions. The framework clarifies when components of an ordered variance decomposition have causal interpretations.
arxiv.org/abs/2608.27140
Plenty of stories like this out there —
One of the stupidest from a former colleague who does statistical modeling work: papers with “VARIANCE“ prominent were flagged.
Variance….as in fucking statistical variance. Maybe the most frequently-appearing word in this numbers-only field.
🤡
One of the stupidest from a former colleague who does statistical modeling work: papers with “VARIANCE“ prominent were flagged.
Variance….as in fucking statistical variance. Maybe the most frequently-appearing word in this numbers-only field.
🤡
February 19, 2026 at 12:58 AM
Plenty of stories like this out there —
One of the stupidest from a former colleague who does statistical modeling work: papers with “VARIANCE“ prominent were flagged.
Variance….as in fucking statistical variance. Maybe the most frequently-appearing word in this numbers-only field.
🤡
One of the stupidest from a former colleague who does statistical modeling work: papers with “VARIANCE“ prominent were flagged.
Variance….as in fucking statistical variance. Maybe the most frequently-appearing word in this numbers-only field.
🤡
bias-variance tradeoff
April 11, 2025 at 12:00 PM
bias-variance tradeoff
here's the thing: we pretty clearly have a variance election but all the polls get their posterior mostly from their prior.
It's going to be a wild story in a few months hearing about the private polling and unreleased internals
and yeah, I don't think even in 2020 with its very unique error was there this level of uniform thinking about the outcome, I've never seen anything like this, so much hedging in public it seems
and yeah, I don't think even in 2020 with its very unique error was there this level of uniform thinking about the outcome, I've never seen anything like this, so much hedging in public it seems
September 22, 2026 at 1:46 AM
here's the thing: we pretty clearly have a variance election but all the polls get their posterior mostly from their prior.
Purdy followed up one of his best games of the season with one of his worst. Been on the high variance train all year
December 13, 2024 at 3:47 AM
Purdy followed up one of his best games of the season with one of his worst. Been on the high variance train all year
Feeling very Time Variance Authority around these parts
I could be convinced that Election Day 2025 - more importantly, the day Cheney died - we got sent into an alternate timeline.
November 22, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Feeling very Time Variance Authority around these parts
although here’s some variance in special election swings, notable that this performance is above average for dems
Trump received 13% of the vote in 2024 in the Minnesota district (in St Paul) that held a legislative race tonight, losing it by 71%.
Today, the GOP nominee got 4%, losing the race by 91%.
Today, the GOP nominee got 4%, losing the race by 91%.
January 28, 2026 at 4:57 AM
although here’s some variance in special election swings, notable that this performance is above average for dems
A zoning administrator drag queen named Variancé (pronounced like Beyoncé).
August 22, 2026 at 11:27 PM
A zoning administrator drag queen named Variancé (pronounced like Beyoncé).
In my experience about 1/3 are some variance of “Holy/Hallowed Ground(s)”
September 23, 2026 at 6:52 PM
In my experience about 1/3 are some variance of “Holy/Hallowed Ground(s)”
wow the discover feed is really high variance huh
November 16, 2024 at 6:07 PM
wow the discover feed is really high variance huh
Picturing a subspace with so much *variance*
September 25, 2026 at 2:54 AM
Picturing a subspace with so much *variance*
the within major income variance here has to be larger than the between major variance
November 13, 2024 at 5:49 PM
the within major income variance here has to be larger than the between major variance
b**s-variance tradeoff
February 4, 2025 at 3:01 AM
b**s-variance tradeoff
Tony’s variance in placement is CRAZY #thetraitorsUS
January 10, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Tony’s variance in placement is CRAZY #thetraitorsUS
46 degree temperature variance in 12 hours is fucking wild man
March 12, 2026 at 10:50 PM
46 degree temperature variance in 12 hours is fucking wild man
a coworker of mine got instructed not to use "big words" like "variance" for someone else that we work with, and is now getting a talking to for a one-line variance report that doesn't even say variance.
the person in question also has multiple post-graduate degrees. i wish i was kidding.
the person in question also has multiple post-graduate degrees. i wish i was kidding.
August 15, 2023 at 5:04 PM
a coworker of mine got instructed not to use "big words" like "variance" for someone else that we work with, and is now getting a talking to for a one-line variance report that doesn't even say variance.
the person in question also has multiple post-graduate degrees. i wish i was kidding.
the person in question also has multiple post-graduate degrees. i wish i was kidding.
Who called it “variance” and not “codependent types”
March 19, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Who called it “variance” and not “codependent types”
All this is, is proof that we're effectively operating under a 15% general tariff with pretty massive variance upwards
Trump announces a trade "deal" with Japan pledging an investment of $550 Billion into the United States, "which will receive 90% of the Profits." Adds "Japan will pay Reciprocal Tariffs to the United States of 15%."
July 22, 2025 at 11:45 PM
All this is, is proof that we're effectively operating under a 15% general tariff with pretty massive variance upwards
I definitely think variance has not been on Arsenal’s side this season but I don’t think that means that every single time variance goes against you you hand wave points. Every time variance has gone against Arsenal this season they haven’t won. At some point that’s not entirely bad luck.
January 4, 2025 at 8:08 PM
I definitely think variance has not been on Arsenal’s side this season but I don’t think that means that every single time variance goes against you you hand wave points. Every time variance has gone against Arsenal this season they haven’t won. At some point that’s not entirely bad luck.
I tend to think the variance is a feature, not a bug.
July 31, 2026 at 2:56 AM
I tend to think the variance is a feature, not a bug.
Where Diff EV and variance
November 17, 2024 at 5:01 PM
Where Diff EV and variance