White: 49.1%
Black: 32.4%
Near-final EV cumulative:
White: 52.7%
Black: 31.6%
White: 49.1%
Black: 32.4%
Near-final EV cumulative:
White: 52.7%
Black: 31.6%
😡🤮😡🤮😡🤮😡🤮👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻
😡🤮😡🤮😡🤮😡🤮👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻
2026: D+6.3 | D+12.2
2024: D+4.4 | R+0.9
2022: D+10.1 | D+6.8
Early voting was very blue this year, esp given a worse party registration situation than 2022.
2026: D+6.3 | D+12.2
2024: D+4.4 | R+0.9
2022: D+10.1 | D+6.8
Early voting was very blue this year, esp given a worse party registration situation than 2022.
33.7% EV
3.3% Hybrid
63.0% ICE
Trailing 4 quarters are:
18.3% EV
4.5% Hybrid
77.3% ICE
33.7% EV
3.3% Hybrid
63.0% ICE
Trailing 4 quarters are:
18.3% EV
4.5% Hybrid
77.3% ICE
Early voting turnout in 2022—> GOP +12
EV turnout in 2026–> D +1
20% of 2026 EV voters *did not vote* in 2022.
Early voting turnout in 2022—> GOP +12
EV turnout in 2026–> D +1
20% of 2026 EV voters *did not vote* in 2022.
2024 EV: 🔴 GOP +21.0
2026 EV: 🔴 GOP +9.3
🔵 Shift of 11.7 points left from 2024
FLGOP turned around their Saturday woes w/ their best EV day & expanded their lead to 155K votes for 🔴+3.01. However Sunday is likely a free day for Democrats to cut that lead down.
2024 EV: 🔴 GOP +21.0
2026 EV: 🔴 GOP +9.3
🔵 Shift of 11.7 points left from 2024
FLGOP turned around their Saturday woes w/ their best EV day & expanded their lead to 155K votes for 🔴+3.01. However Sunday is likely a free day for Democrats to cut that lead down.
FL-GOV 2018: R+0.4
2026 is at a bluer EV now, and Florida has had robust EV a lot longer than most places
The only hope for Republicans is a massive shift to voting on Elec Day
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-early...
FL-GOV 2018: R+0.4
2026 is at a bluer EV now, and Florida has had robust EV a lot longer than most places