my god it's like even worse than the most idiotic Austrian proposal for the macroeconomy
January 31, 2025 at 7:09 PM
my god it's like even worse than the most idiotic Austrian proposal for the macroeconomy
Credibly commit to forcing the choice: you get unitary executive theory *or* a stable macroeconomy, but not both.
May 22, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Credibly commit to forcing the choice: you get unitary executive theory *or* a stable macroeconomy, but not both.
This is one of those slow burns that will show up in the macroeconomy in like 2-3 years.
How do airlines survive such a drastic drop in revenue? Trump has shot down not only the US airline industry, but also airplane manufacturing.
July 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
This is one of those slow burns that will show up in the macroeconomy in like 2-3 years.
The macroeconomy is the true assassin of tyrants these days.
tbh looking back at Bolsonaro's election loss to Lula, i'm fairly convinced Democrats should message against, but not prevent Trump's tariffs, inflation, and economic mistakes
more people associated CARES with Trump than Democrats
more people associated CARES with Trump than Democrats
November 23, 2024 at 5:42 PM
The macroeconomy is the true assassin of tyrants these days.
Two defining political economy challenges of our lifetime are climate and decoupling of macroeconomy from micro quality of life.
These are our political responses.
These are our political responses.
October 15, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Two defining political economy challenges of our lifetime are climate and decoupling of macroeconomy from micro quality of life.
These are our political responses.
These are our political responses.
the US was the only big power that had its macroeconomy more or less sorted post-pandemic, but then we elected Trump, and he'll see to that paulkrugman.substack.com/p/stagnation...
Stagnation With Chinese Characteristics
How not to manage a downshifting economy
paulkrugman.substack.com
December 28, 2024 at 3:10 AM
the US was the only big power that had its macroeconomy more or less sorted post-pandemic, but then we elected Trump, and he'll see to that paulkrugman.substack.com/p/stagnation...
Political trends anywhere are inextricably linked to the macroeconomy what are you TALKING about dude
April 7, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Political trends anywhere are inextricably linked to the macroeconomy what are you TALKING about dude
If the macroeconomy starts weakening substantially, the Fed will be in a tough spot with inflation still at 3% and tariffs promising to put upward pressure on prices.
March 3, 2025 at 8:42 PM
If the macroeconomy starts weakening substantially, the Fed will be in a tough spot with inflation still at 3% and tariffs promising to put upward pressure on prices.
“Political trends in the US are not lashed to the macroeconomy in any kind of coherent or predictable way”
I’m sorry, what the fuck?
I’m sorry, what the fuck?
April 7, 2025 at 4:11 PM
“Political trends in the US are not lashed to the macroeconomy in any kind of coherent or predictable way”
I’m sorry, what the fuck?
I’m sorry, what the fuck?
it might not collapse the macroeconomy but it's going to hurt the checkbooks of regular americans
January 28, 2025 at 5:08 PM
it might not collapse the macroeconomy but it's going to hurt the checkbooks of regular americans
Economists, stupid: the president has imperfect control over the macroeconomy and his control surfaces are limited. Other factors often have more impact.
Donald Trump, smart: I will make everything more expensive and introduce massive uncertainty that makes capex impossible for literally no reason.
Donald Trump, smart: I will make everything more expensive and introduce massive uncertainty that makes capex impossible for literally no reason.
March 11, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Economists, stupid: the president has imperfect control over the macroeconomy and his control surfaces are limited. Other factors often have more impact.
Donald Trump, smart: I will make everything more expensive and introduce massive uncertainty that makes capex impossible for literally no reason.
Donald Trump, smart: I will make everything more expensive and introduce massive uncertainty that makes capex impossible for literally no reason.
Really think it's understated how tariffs + shenanigans with the Feds + mass deportation + climate/insurance shocks along with other factors could really end up hitting the macroeconomy *very* very hard in the next 2 years.
January 19, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Really think it's understated how tariffs + shenanigans with the Feds + mass deportation + climate/insurance shocks along with other factors could really end up hitting the macroeconomy *very* very hard in the next 2 years.
rediscovering what happens when the federal government functionally violates all contract law while simultaneously engaging in a massive retraction of fiscal spending across all sectors of the American macroeconomy from first principles
A few people talking about a 'collapse' of the US economy. Seems wildly overblown. Contraction of Federal spending if it held would be of the order of a few tens of $bns, max? That would be offset somewhat by the Fed lowering rates. Anyone got a better estimate?
January 28, 2025 at 5:02 PM
rediscovering what happens when the federal government functionally violates all contract law while simultaneously engaging in a massive retraction of fiscal spending across all sectors of the American macroeconomy from first principles
One of the biggest myths in the United States which I think genuinely causes so many of our problems is the belief that executives of large companies/financial institutions need a good or accurate understanding of the macroeconomy to consistently make money. Its just not true.
December 24, 2025 at 7:04 PM
One of the biggest myths in the United States which I think genuinely causes so many of our problems is the belief that executives of large companies/financial institutions need a good or accurate understanding of the macroeconomy to consistently make money. Its just not true.
If you want people to stop being so mean about tech, have you tried not crying like a baby about it and taking it on the chin given that most people actually do have a good reason to hate what is happening even when their model of its machinations and integration into the macroeconomy is inaccurate
December 10, 2025 at 8:19 PM
If you want people to stop being so mean about tech, have you tried not crying like a baby about it and taking it on the chin given that most people actually do have a good reason to hate what is happening even when their model of its machinations and integration into the macroeconomy is inaccurate
2022 and 2025 are not the worst economic years in modern US history. Yet consumers think they are.
2008-09 had crashing markets and much higher unemployment.
Early 1980s had much higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Whatever consumer sentiment measures now, it's not really the macroeconomy.
2008-09 had crashing markets and much higher unemployment.
Early 1980s had much higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Whatever consumer sentiment measures now, it's not really the macroeconomy.
I’m sorry but you just cannot explain this. You can’t. It can’t be done. It defies comprehension.
December 19, 2025 at 3:42 PM
2022 and 2025 are not the worst economic years in modern US history. Yet consumers think they are.
2008-09 had crashing markets and much higher unemployment.
Early 1980s had much higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Whatever consumer sentiment measures now, it's not really the macroeconomy.
2008-09 had crashing markets and much higher unemployment.
Early 1980s had much higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Whatever consumer sentiment measures now, it's not really the macroeconomy.
Concerning trends for housing costs and the macroeconomy.
Homebuilder confidence really tanked this month. Especially notable is their view of the "next six months".
Toll just missed their numbers.
Housing Starts out tomorrow!
Toll just missed their numbers.
Housing Starts out tomorrow!
February 19, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Concerning trends for housing costs and the macroeconomy.
yeah, it's almost like, rather than there being some subtle nuance about the macroeconomy we're missing, people are bluntly rejecting lived reality because they receive so much social validation and emotional catharsis from false political narratives those realities would contradict.
Amazing how many rounds of this we’ve all had to go through and they still don’t concede or acknowledge the biggest one, which is that wages went up!
yes, it's very easy to explain trends like "people believe the economy is declining" when you're allowed to make up facts, such as "wages haven't gone up."
the problem is wages HAVE gone up, significantly. much harder to explain the world when you're restricted to true numbers. many such cases.
the problem is wages HAVE gone up, significantly. much harder to explain the world when you're restricted to true numbers. many such cases.
July 20, 2026 at 9:33 PM
yeah, it's almost like, rather than there being some subtle nuance about the macroeconomy we're missing, people are bluntly rejecting lived reality because they receive so much social validation and emotional catharsis from false political narratives those realities would contradict.
Inflation and the Macroeconomy www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation-...
Inflation and the Macroeconomy
These are my prepared comments for the session “Inflation and the Macroeconomy” at the 2025 American Economic Association annual meetings, with Jason Furman, Ben Bernanke, and Christina Romer.
www.grumpy-economist.com
January 11, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Inflation and the Macroeconomy www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation-...
it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Labour is managing the macroeconomy via individual policy polling
With Rachel Reeves reportedly set to apply a new tax on tuition fees paid by overseas students, most Britons support such a move at the previously mooted level of 6%
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
November 24, 2025 at 7:19 PM
it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Labour is managing the macroeconomy via individual policy polling
My name is Jason Hickel and I believe simple linear regressions for the macroeconomy is good science
March 28, 2026 at 2:58 AM
My name is Jason Hickel and I believe simple linear regressions for the macroeconomy is good science
Let me try to explain everything that's happening in the macroeconomy—recession fears, inflation concerns, the bond market jitters and the dollar falling—in the framework we teach in econ classes. It's my attempt at helping smart econ students make sense of the current moment.
April 16, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Let me try to explain everything that's happening in the macroeconomy—recession fears, inflation concerns, the bond market jitters and the dollar falling—in the framework we teach in econ classes. It's my attempt at helping smart econ students make sense of the current moment.
I wish i had coherent thoughts about the macroeconomy, but its pretty big
October 5, 2025 at 8:11 PM
I wish i had coherent thoughts about the macroeconomy, but its pretty big
Blaming migration completely mistakes why low productivity work continues to exist, primarily because it's a function of a macroeconomy that isn't running hot enough to drive productivity growth and both publica and private under-investment; migration can't explain the post-08 divergence in US/UK.
December 4, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Blaming migration completely mistakes why low productivity work continues to exist, primarily because it's a function of a macroeconomy that isn't running hot enough to drive productivity growth and both publica and private under-investment; migration can't explain the post-08 divergence in US/UK.
"There must be a point at which the destruction of jobs is actually a net harm to the macroeconomy—because the zeroing out of consumer demand far outweighs productivity gains."
We Can Choose Not to Let AI Destroy Us
Systemic risk and AI’s speed problem.
lnk.thebulwark.com
February 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM
"There must be a point at which the destruction of jobs is actually a net harm to the macroeconomy—because the zeroing out of consumer demand far outweighs productivity gains."