Market Filter
@marketfilter.bsky.social
Global macro & cross-asset intelligence.
Central banks • Rates • FX • Energy • Commodities
Facts → Pricing → Transmission → Invalidation
No signals. No noise.
Central banks • Rates • FX • Energy • Commodities
Facts → Pricing → Transmission → Invalidation
No signals. No noise.
Pinned
Markets don’t move on headlines.
They move on changes in expectations.
Market Filter exists to separate what happened from what actually matters.
Facts first. Pricing second. Causality before narrative.
🧵
They move on changes in expectations.
Market Filter exists to separate what happened from what actually matters.
Facts first. Pricing second. Causality before narrative.
🧵
Markets are closed, so there is no cross-asset confirmation yet.
Monday:
oil ↑ + breakevens/yields ↑ = stronger inflation shock.
No Kharg damage + OPEC+ relief = escalation thesis weakened.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
Monday:
oil ↑ + breakevens/yields ↑ = stronger inflation shock.
No Kharg damage + OPEC+ relief = escalation thesis weakened.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
September 5, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Markets are closed, so there is no cross-asset confirmation yet.
Monday:
oil ↑ + breakevens/yields ↑ = stronger inflation shock.
No Kharg damage + OPEC+ relief = escalation thesis weakened.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
Monday:
oil ↑ + breakevens/yields ↑ = stronger inflation shock.
No Kharg damage + OPEC+ relief = escalation thesis weakened.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
US ENERGY
Gasoline is above $4/gal ahead of Labor Day.
Inventories are low. Refinery utilization is ~98%.
The inflation channel is moving beyond crude into transport and household costs.
#Inflation #Gasoline #Fed
Gasoline is above $4/gal ahead of Labor Day.
Inventories are low. Refinery utilization is ~98%.
The inflation channel is moving beyond crude into transport and household costs.
#Inflation #Gasoline #Fed
September 5, 2026 at 5:19 PM
US ENERGY
Gasoline is above $4/gal ahead of Labor Day.
Inventories are low. Refinery utilization is ~98%.
The inflation channel is moving beyond crude into transport and household costs.
#Inflation #Gasoline #Fed
Gasoline is above $4/gal ahead of Labor Day.
Inventories are low. Refinery utilization is ~98%.
The inflation channel is moving beyond crude into transport and household costs.
#Inflation #Gasoline #Fed
WHY KHARG MATTERS
A tanker strike alone is one thing.
A strike near Iran’s main crude export hub is another.
The key test is now physical:
Were export infrastructure or loading operations disrupted?
#Energy #Oil #Geopolitics
A tanker strike alone is one thing.
A strike near Iran’s main crude export hub is another.
The key test is now physical:
Were export infrastructure or loading operations disrupted?
#Energy #Oil #Geopolitics
September 5, 2026 at 5:19 PM
WHY KHARG MATTERS
A tanker strike alone is one thing.
A strike near Iran’s main crude export hub is another.
The key test is now physical:
Were export infrastructure or loading operations disrupted?
#Energy #Oil #Geopolitics
A tanker strike alone is one thing.
A strike near Iran’s main crude export hub is another.
The key test is now physical:
Were export infrastructure or loading operations disrupted?
#Energy #Oil #Geopolitics
REGIME TEST
Fed pricing ~50/50.
Oil stays high.
Yields have eased.
Weak jobs + yields/FedWatch ↓ would deepen the policy shift.
Strong jobs + yields/FedWatch ↑ would invalidate part of the Waller repricing.
#Fed #NFP #MarketFilter
Fed pricing ~50/50.
Oil stays high.
Yields have eased.
Weak jobs + yields/FedWatch ↓ would deepen the policy shift.
Strong jobs + yields/FedWatch ↑ would invalidate part of the Waller repricing.
#Fed #NFP #MarketFilter
September 4, 2026 at 8:17 AM
REGIME TEST
Fed pricing ~50/50.
Oil stays high.
Yields have eased.
Weak jobs + yields/FedWatch ↓ would deepen the policy shift.
Strong jobs + yields/FedWatch ↑ would invalidate part of the Waller repricing.
#Fed #NFP #MarketFilter
Fed pricing ~50/50.
Oil stays high.
Yields have eased.
Weak jobs + yields/FedWatch ↓ would deepen the policy shift.
Strong jobs + yields/FedWatch ↑ would invalidate part of the Waller repricing.
#Fed #NFP #MarketFilter
ENERGY SHOCK
Brent ~$96
+7.6% this week
US diesel has hit a record ~$5.82/gal as inventories tighten.
The inflation risk is no longer just crude transport and logistics costs are becoming the transmission channel.
#Oil #Inflation #Energy
Brent ~$96
+7.6% this week
US diesel has hit a record ~$5.82/gal as inventories tighten.
The inflation risk is no longer just crude transport and logistics costs are becoming the transmission channel.
#Oil #Inflation #Energy
September 4, 2026 at 8:16 AM
ENERGY SHOCK
Brent ~$96
+7.6% this week
US diesel has hit a record ~$5.82/gal as inventories tighten.
The inflation risk is no longer just crude transport and logistics costs are becoming the transmission channel.
#Oil #Inflation #Energy
Brent ~$96
+7.6% this week
US diesel has hit a record ~$5.82/gal as inventories tighten.
The inflation risk is no longer just crude transport and logistics costs are becoming the transmission channel.
#Oil #Inflation #Energy
BANK OF CANADA
Rate held at 2.25% as expected.
The surprise was the message: upside inflation risks have increased.
Markets now see hikes potentially starting in December.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing matters.
#BoC #CAD #Inflation
Rate held at 2.25% as expected.
The surprise was the message: upside inflation risks have increased.
Markets now see hikes potentially starting in December.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing matters.
#BoC #CAD #Inflation
September 2, 2026 at 6:35 PM
BANK OF CANADA
Rate held at 2.25% as expected.
The surprise was the message: upside inflation risks have increased.
Markets now see hikes potentially starting in December.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing matters.
#BoC #CAD #Inflation
Rate held at 2.25% as expected.
The surprise was the message: upside inflation risks have increased.
Markets now see hikes potentially starting in December.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing matters.
#BoC #CAD #Inflation
🇺🇸 US private hiring slows
August ADP: +38K vs +48K expected.
July revised to +46K from +44K.
→ Moderately dovish for the Fed
→ US yields eased after the release
→ Slight support for gold
No regime change yet: oil keeps inflation risks elevated. Friday’s NFP is the real test.
August ADP: +38K vs +48K expected.
July revised to +46K from +44K.
→ Moderately dovish for the Fed
→ US yields eased after the release
→ Slight support for gold
No regime change yet: oil keeps inflation risks elevated. Friday’s NFP is the real test.
September 2, 2026 at 1:36 PM
🇺🇸 US private hiring slows
August ADP: +38K vs +48K expected.
July revised to +46K from +44K.
→ Moderately dovish for the Fed
→ US yields eased after the release
→ Slight support for gold
No regime change yet: oil keeps inflation risks elevated. Friday’s NFP is the real test.
August ADP: +38K vs +48K expected.
July revised to +46K from +44K.
→ Moderately dovish for the Fed
→ US yields eased after the release
→ Slight support for gold
No regime change yet: oil keeps inflation risks elevated. Friday’s NFP is the real test.
ECB PRICING
Markets now price ~35% odds of the ECB deposit rate reaching 3% by Mar. 2027, up from ~25% last week.
September is mostly priced.
The new question is how far tightening goes after that.
#ECB #Rates #Inflation
Markets now price ~35% odds of the ECB deposit rate reaching 3% by Mar. 2027, up from ~25% last week.
September is mostly priced.
The new question is how far tightening goes after that.
#ECB #Rates #Inflation
September 2, 2026 at 12:19 PM
ECB PRICING
Markets now price ~35% odds of the ECB deposit rate reaching 3% by Mar. 2027, up from ~25% last week.
September is mostly priced.
The new question is how far tightening goes after that.
#ECB #Rates #Inflation
Markets now price ~35% odds of the ECB deposit rate reaching 3% by Mar. 2027, up from ~25% last week.
September is mostly priced.
The new question is how far tightening goes after that.
#ECB #Rates #Inflation
REGIME CHECK
Oil ↑
Global yields ↑
USD ↑
Equities ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflationary tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑ despite high oil.
#Macro #MarketFilter #Trading
Oil ↑
Global yields ↑
USD ↑
Equities ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflationary tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑ despite high oil.
#Macro #MarketFilter #Trading
September 2, 2026 at 6:22 AM
REGIME CHECK
Oil ↑
Global yields ↑
USD ↑
Equities ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflationary tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑ despite high oil.
#Macro #MarketFilter #Trading
Oil ↑
Global yields ↑
USD ↑
Equities ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflationary tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑ despite high oil.
#Macro #MarketFilter #Trading
RBNZ
New Zealand raised rates 25bp to 2.75%.
Yet NZD fell.
Why? The path was less hawkish than markets expected.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing first.
#RBNZ #NZD #CentralBanks
New Zealand raised rates 25bp to 2.75%.
Yet NZD fell.
Why? The path was less hawkish than markets expected.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing first.
#RBNZ #NZD #CentralBanks
September 2, 2026 at 6:21 AM
RBNZ
New Zealand raised rates 25bp to 2.75%.
Yet NZD fell.
Why? The path was less hawkish than markets expected.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing first.
#RBNZ #NZD #CentralBanks
New Zealand raised rates 25bp to 2.75%.
Yet NZD fell.
Why? The path was less hawkish than markets expected.
Decision ≠ surprise. Pricing first.
#RBNZ #NZD #CentralBanks
BONDS
US 10Y touched 4.812%.
Japan’s yields are also at multi-decade highs.
Inflation isn’t the only issue: term premium, sovereign supply and weaker foreign demand for duration matter too.
#Bonds #Treasuries #JGB
US 10Y touched 4.812%.
Japan’s yields are also at multi-decade highs.
Inflation isn’t the only issue: term premium, sovereign supply and weaker foreign demand for duration matter too.
#Bonds #Treasuries #JGB
September 2, 2026 at 6:21 AM
BONDS
US 10Y touched 4.812%.
Japan’s yields are also at multi-decade highs.
Inflation isn’t the only issue: term premium, sovereign supply and weaker foreign demand for duration matter too.
#Bonds #Treasuries #JGB
US 10Y touched 4.812%.
Japan’s yields are also at multi-decade highs.
Inflation isn’t the only issue: term premium, sovereign supply and weaker foreign demand for duration matter too.
#Bonds #Treasuries #JGB
HORMUZ
Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude were struck in the Strait.
US and Iran also exchanged fresh attacks.
This is no longer just headline risk: physical energy logistics are being hit.
#Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics
Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude were struck in the Strait.
US and Iran also exchanged fresh attacks.
This is no longer just headline risk: physical energy logistics are being hit.
#Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics
September 2, 2026 at 6:20 AM
HORMUZ
Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude were struck in the Strait.
US and Iran also exchanged fresh attacks.
This is no longer just headline risk: physical energy logistics are being hit.
#Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics
Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude were struck in the Strait.
US and Iran also exchanged fresh attacks.
This is no longer just headline risk: physical energy logistics are being hit.
#Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics
Regime check:
Oil >$92
US10Y ~4.77%
Fed hike odds ~66–68%
Stocks ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflation/tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
Oil >$92
US10Y ~4.77%
Fed hike odds ~66–68%
Stocks ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflation/tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
September 1, 2026 at 6:58 PM
Regime check:
Oil >$92
US10Y ~4.77%
Fed hike odds ~66–68%
Stocks ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflation/tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
Oil >$92
US10Y ~4.77%
Fed hike odds ~66–68%
Stocks ↓
Gold ↓
Still an inflation/tightening shock.
Invalidation: yields ↓ + USD ↓ + gold ↑.
#Macro #Oil #MarketFilter
FedWatch still prices roughly a 2-in-3 chance of a September hike.
Softer JOLTS didn’t break the repricing.
Barr: if inflation doesn’t moderate enough, rates should rise decisively.
#Fed #FedWatch #Inflation
Softer JOLTS didn’t break the repricing.
Barr: if inflation doesn’t moderate enough, rates should rise decisively.
#Fed #FedWatch #Inflation
September 1, 2026 at 6:57 PM
FedWatch still prices roughly a 2-in-3 chance of a September hike.
Softer JOLTS didn’t break the repricing.
Barr: if inflation doesn’t moderate enough, rates should rise decisively.
#Fed #FedWatch #Inflation
Softer JOLTS didn’t break the repricing.
Barr: if inflation doesn’t moderate enough, rates should rise decisively.
#Fed #FedWatch #Inflation